Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [I don’t see why it matters anyway. Surely what someone writes is more important than who they are.]

    but then we cant use sexist based language to belittle em

    😉

  6. [but then we cant use sexist based language to belittle em]
    Yeah! Like when I called constantly called you Betty for comedic effect.

  8. Mumble on the forgotten people

    [
    We really only remember the “forgotten people” because Menzies chose it as the title of a compilation of his 1942 radio speeches.

    Academics and journalists love it because it contains the essence of the “secret” to his success. (They loved the bogus “Howard’s battlers” for the same reason.)

    The Liberal Party under Menzies, like any successful party in this country, won and kept office largely by getting and retaining the support of the uninterested-in-politics middle class. Like most people, they can be encouraged to believe they’re being neglected.

    But let’s face it, if he’d never made that speech nothing much would have happened differently.
    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tony_abbotts_forgotten_families/

  10. [Since you are so concerned about the gender of posters here, why don’t you replace your icon with a photo of yourself?]

    That would be going a lot further than I’m suggesting, wouldn’t it?

    [I don’t see why it matters anyway. Surely what someone writes is more important than who they are.]

    No, it doesn’t “matter”, but it’s nice to know. As I said, my interest in knowing feels instinctive.

  15. I suppose someone’s already mentioned it, but the 7.30 Budget response special was watched by about 477,000 viewers.

  18. victoria

    True. They also say:
    [But neither does the Abbott Opposition deserve to win government.]
    Sadly, based on the polls as they are at the moment, The Gillard govt will lose. I know there is a long way to go until the election is held, and a lot can happen (good and bad), but given that the media will not give any credit where it’s due, any good will be conveniently forgotten.

    The point of the article is about the how the Arsetralian (and all Newscorp outlets) see themselves as kingmakers.

    Those of us who view an Abbottabad government as a disaster for this country should never be complacent.

    Thinking that the government getting on with governing will fix the polls is dangerous. Look how much good policy has been passed so far, and where are the polls?

    It behoves all good people to fight these @#$%^’s with everything we’ve got, because that’s exactly what they will do,

  19. [I simply tread very cautiously until someone gives a clue. Generally works.]

    I’ve read a lot of OPT’s posts and never got a clue. And being male, my default position is of course male. 🙂

  20. Shows On,

    Another explanation is that 7.30 has dropped around 500k viewers this year. Maybe he and his producers worked out that his moralising stories and interviews were self indulgent and not cutting the mustard and that it was time for a rethink of approach.

    Enlightened self interest inducing behaviour modification methinks.

    What he really thinks? Who knows.

  21. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    This might be a Galileo moment for a few of our athiestic prosletisers.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8510711/Belief-in-God-is-part-of-human-nature-Oxford-study.html%5D

    Little kiddies believe their mothers are omnipotent, and humans resort to omnipotent fairies to explain things they don’t understand is a Galileo moment? Difficult to see how.

    Not difficult to see how religious bodies attempt to limit education in an attempt to keep the idea of an omnipotent fairy alive; happens regularly.

  24. [Gusface
    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

    What he really thinks? Who knows.

    God does.]

    As if a omnipotent fairy would care.

  26. gus,

    The old “look there’s a unicorn ploy”.

    Your just smarting from Shows On exposing you for the sanctimonious hypocrite you are?

  27. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @ @JulieBishopMP There will be no early election. It is the indies you have to convince – not the voters. The Indies think Tony is a moron]

  29. DG

    I am not complacent. if election held anytime this year, The coalition would win with a healthy majority. 🙁

  34. fredn,

    The research is indicating that a belief in God is a natural thing.

    In this case you could be one of the cardinals telling Galileo that his factual findings regarding the rotation of the earth etc. are wrong.

    I only posted it to get the sort of ironic response you have delighted me with.

    Thanks for the entertainment.

  35. [If you want to get angry, Tony is doing his normal circus act live on ABC.]

    Thanks, but I’ve seen enough of that creature to last a while.

  36. Tony Abbott did well (relatively) on the flowery aspect of rhetoric, the figures of speech and the allusions, but he actually failed a bigger rhetorical test.

    That is, as according to Aristotle, you have to match your rhetoric to the occasion.

    To not do so can acutely put people off. At the extreme end, can you imagine getting up in the middle of funeral speech and making a political statement.

    So Tony did not match his speech to the occasion. So this is an interesting experiment in which aspect of rhetoric is more important in these times.

    The relative importance of each aspect of rhetoric has oscillated wildy over history.

  38. Dr Good

    Thanks for linking the fracking song. Effective way to explain something extremely serious. Wonder if it is worth sending to Combet? Perhaps an Aussie style version of this re climate change policy?

  39. Fess,

    It was on but I wasn’t listening. The man and his arrogance is truly something to behold. I have come to a point where I really can’t hear what he has to say.

  40. does anyone know what this is about?

    BENFORDHAM | 9 minutes ago
    [I’ll be interviewing @chrismurphys on 2GB at 3:20pm about the allegations he’s been making on Twitter. Do you have any questions ? (2GB.COM)]

  41. When in the past did an opposition’s budget reply make a difference to anything and especially one 2 years out from an election?

  43. [Abbott is saying if Labor achieves a surplus it will be due to China. I’m yet to work out why that is bad.]

    All Costello’s surpluses were ‘made in China’.

  44. bg

    Are suggesting that Abbott got the rhetoric wrong because it did not suit the occasion, and therefore he failed?

  45. If Labor are in deficit, it’s their own doing – GFC had nothing to do with it.

    If Labor get into surplus, it’s China’s growth – it’s not their doing.

  46. For you Gary,

    [ SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @TonyAbbottMHR making money from legititmate trade with China is bad? You suggest leaving the billions of dollars for someone else? Moron!
    ]

  48. [CycleAdagio Etienne de Briquenel
    by Dan_Gulberry
    My sponsored Nepali girl just wrote to ask if she could sponsor a child from one of our struggling $150k families. #Auspol
    ]

  50. Chris Murphy is a Sydney Lawyer who specialises in high profile cases and is generally pretty progressive in his politics.

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