Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. The Budget needs to be passed before 1 July, I believe. It’ll likely be passed on the last sitting day in June (23 June). Worst case, the Senate will come back on 1 July and pass it.

  6. [Thanks, but can it be done sooner if desired?]

    Yes, but generally it is thought to be better practice to at least wait until the Senate committees have presented their reports on the Estimates hearing (scheduled to report on 21 June).

    It’s all noise though, the appropriations bills will pass just as usual.

  11. Abbott stated during the period after the election that the Coalition would not block supply if they were in Opposition in any case.

  12. jenauthor

    Julia did a presser this morning in Melbourne at a Headspace centre with Mark Butler and Professor MGorry. It was on ABC24. I assume it was on Sky as well. Check multi view on Sky, it might be there.

  15. Chris Uhlmann on the budget

    [
    Any budget has to be seen in context and the inescapable circumstance of this one is minority government.

    In that context, this is a good budget. The media cannot spend years demanding a halt in middle-class and industry welfare and then recoil in horror when something is done. Frankly, some of the hysteria that has followed the mild trimming of benefits has been breathtaking. What we should really be focusing on is why this country has developed a handout mentality.
    ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/13/3216097.htm

  16. [SpudBenBean Duchess Potato
    by StGusface
    @ @wombat1974 The only time I ever shout #GOSHARKSGO is when Mr Abbott goes swimming.
    ]

  17. Now if this doesn’t make you laugh you need more than PB!

    [ Dan_Gulberry Dan Gulberry
    #Gold RT @shellity Putting chaplains in schools and asking them not to proselytise is like asking seagulls to mind your chips. #StopNSCP
    ]

  18. Ah, but they’re not the legitimate opposition, LTEP.

    According to Tony that position legitimately belongs to the Labor Party.

    Therefore the Liberals can block supply because they’re legitimately the Government.

    Just ask them.

  19. [george
    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    Triton/Victoria,

    it was worth listening to the Friday Wrap on 774 just to hear Waleed say to Roskam “hang on, I don’t mind you having an opinion, whatever that opinion, but not your own facts”

    hilarious]

    Yeah, I thought it went pretty well. Roskam was his usual obnoxious self, but he got a bit of come-uppance today. The ex ACTU lady was pretty good – a lot firmer than the token leftists they’ve had before.

    If some were listening earlier, there was a golden News moment when the newsreader delivered an apology to Quigley and his NBN mate about those allegations on the French parent company. Nice little backdown which will teach them not to echo OO stuff so readily.

    On that score the OO might have to make sure its insurance policies are all up to date. Good to see them not taking that anti-NBN propaganda lying down.

  22. I agree on Uhlmann Madcyril, I felt he was always very soft on Abbott, but in recent weeks I have found him quite balanced. Same goes for most of the ABC for that matter.

  26. I’d have to go with Gus’ take on it.

    Unless, of course, Chris’ conjugal rights have been withdrawn until he makes a notable improvement…

  27. madcyril

    This is not the Uhlmann we know and love. I’m pleased with him today. Perhaps the theme of “over 150K earners are doing it hard” really got to him. Good article.

  28. [This might be a Galileo moment for a few of our athiestic prosletisers.]
    Or not. There has been a lot of work in evolutionary psychology that explains how our evolutionarily acquired sensory and mental capacities can lead to false beliefs. The tremendous research into the cognition of optical illusions is a great example. This new study seems to just support prior research that people have a natural disposition for believing certain things that are actually untrue. Of course, just because there is a better understanding of how and why people hold false beliefs doesn’t suddenly make those beliefs true.

    I think one of the best books on this topic is this one:
    http://www.amazon.com/Conceiving-God-Cognitive-Evolution-Religion/dp/050005164X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1305254208&sr=8-1

    But there are many others:
    http://www.amazon.com/Faith-Instinct-Religion-Evolved-Endures/dp/B003B3NVZY/ref=pd_sim_b_2

    I’m looking forward to this one:
    http://www.amazon.com/Believing-Brain-Conspiracies-How-Construct-Reinforce/dp/0805091254/ref=pd_sim_b_4

    There are also some great papers being written on the subject, such as here:
    http://socrel.oxfordjournals.org/content/68/4/341.full.pdf
    And here:
    http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/anthro/bec/papers/boyer_religious_concepts.htm

    Within a decade or so cognitive and evolutionary explanations of religious beliefs will be standard parts of university psychology curriculums. More than likely fundamentalists will attack this knowledge in the same way they attack evolutionary biology in general. It will be interesting to see which religious leaders and scholars support free inquiry into the basis of religious belief, and which ones once again try to deny free speech and the pursuit of knowledge without the restriction of dogma.

  29. Uhlmann

    Falling ratings????
    Wife trouble????
    New ABC Board pending – it is now unlikely/impossible that there will be a change of gove BEFORE new ABC Board appointments and Uhlman & co are looking long term????

    All good reasons for a more moderate stance.

  30. [Any budget has to be seen in context and the inescapable circumstance of this one is minority government.

    In that context, this is a good budget. The media cannot spend years demanding a halt in middle-class and industry welfare and then recoil in horror when something is done. Frankly, some of the hysteria that has followed the mild trimming of benefits has been breathtaking. What we should really be focusing on is why this country has developed a handout mentality.]

    Uhlmann just went up a notch in my estimation. Maybe Tanner’s book is having an effect.

  32. Greensborough Growler 5605

    I think that you will find that children under the age of five
    might also find it easier to believe that the earth is flat
    rather than round.

    You will also find claims that being aggressive or competitive
    is part of human nature but it does not mean that we should
    stop pointing out the benefits of people trying to behave in
    a more enlightened way.

  33. The only time Uhlmann annoyed me recently was an interview (I think it was Stephen Smith) where he kept pressing for an undiplomatic comment on Pakistan after Osama was killed. Smith made it pretty clear he was not going to give it to him and he pressed a few questions too long… it just wasted interview time.

  34. [someone commented that Uhlmann was stunned by Abbott’s budget reply]

    Perhaps he’s had a road to Damascus moment and realised that Abbottt really is an empty vessel.

  36. [You will also find claims that being aggressive or competitive
    is part of human nature but it does not mean that we should
    stop pointing out the benefits of people trying to behave in
    a more enlightened way.]
    Yeah, the assumption that because something is part of human nature that it is automatically good is kind of scary.

    Aren’t religious leaders always telling us about the importance of cultural institutions such as marriage and monogamy? Well, there is little evidence to suggest that early humans were monogamous.

  37. [that context, this is a good budget. The media cannot spend years demanding a halt in middle-class and industry welfare and then recoil in horror when something is done. Frankly, some of the hysteria that has followed the mild trimming of benefits has been breathtaking. What we should really be focusing on is why this country has developed a handout mentality]

    lets hope he expresses this when next interviewing some one, how many people read the abc on line may be 5 percent

  38. An excellent article on what’s going on at The Arsetralian HQ.
    [What primarily does The Australian and News Limited stand for?

    It stands for its own self importance. The problem isn’t that the organisation favours one side of the news over another, it is that it is an insular club which is cold to outside influences. News Limited likes, above all, to be seen as a king maker and power broker. It does not want to report the news — it wants to make the news.]
    http://bit.ly/izTxsJ

    Nothing that we haven’t all said before, but it’s good to know we’re not alone.

  39. [OPT is a female]

    It would be helpful if everyone’s sex were declared with some unobtrusive symbol, just so we can get the pronouns right. It can be quite awkward writing a gender-neutral post. I find that it’s also the one piece of information that I instinctively want to know.

  42. The consensus brewing is that Uhlmann’s moderate and reasoned article represents a ploy to:

    (a) masquerade his wanton bias; and
    (b) get some.

  45. [The consensus brewing is that Uhlmann’s moderate and reasoned article represents a ploy to:]
    If I had to guess I’d say Uhlmmann was a moderate Liberal. Moderate Liberals do speak sense occasionally.

  46. Humans, being primates, have the concept of the “bigger chimp” hardwired into their minds. The bigger chimp is often a problem, but might also provide critical assistance in a few nasty situations (invading mob of alien chimps, intra-group problems etc). So the bigger chimp is to be propitiated, in hopes of lessening the problems that the bigger chimp’s presence causes, and also in hopes being able to secure help from the bigger chimp if/when the time comes for it.

    Sometimes, however, the bigger chimp cannot help; or sometimes the biggest chimp themself feels the same need (being hardwired with the same concept). But the need for the bigger chimp, and the hardwiring, are still there ➡ the imagining of the biggest chimp possible (who will like me very much if I play my cards right is only a small, unremarkable additional step…

  49. [It would be helpful if everyone’s sex were declared with some unobtrusive symbol,]
    Since you are so concerned about the gender of posters here, why don’t you replace your icon with a photo of yourself?

    Whether or not people here disclose their gender, or anything else about themselves, is up to them.

    I don’t see why it matters anyway. Surely what someone writes is more important than who they are.

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