Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has performed its occasional trick of confusing the hell out of people who don’t follow its activities closely, by releasing two sets of opinion poll results at the same time. One is a phone poll from a solid sample of 882 respondents with a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, and it shows what we have come to expect from polls of this kind regardless of who conducts them: the Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred and by 46 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11 per cent. The two-party result is much the same if you use respondent-allocated preferences rather than preferences from the 2010 election result: 54-46.

The other poll covers Morgan’s last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, and has the Coalition lead at 52-48 using 2010 election preferences and 53.5-46.5 using respondent-allocated preferences. It should be noted that the consistent discrepancy in these results, with the former proving more favourable to Labor, has been a recent phenomenon, resulting from a decline in the share of non-major party voters indicating a preference for Labor. The primary votes are at 37 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens.

We also had earlier this week Newspoll results on climate change and the carbon tax, with even worse results for the government than usual: only 30 per cent are in favour of its policy, with 60 per cent opposed. It has of course been shown the the government gets much kinder results if it is put to respondents that most of the money raised will be used for compensation: this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically but possibly obscures some of the issue’s political complexity. Beyond that, 78 per cent “believe in climate change”, and 72 per cent (58 partly, 14 per cent entirely) believe it to be caused by human activity. However, only 39 per cent are in favour of paying more for energy as a result: 30 per cent are opposed despite believing human activity to be a cause, with 28 per cent either not believing or not committed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,793 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face”

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  3. [nappin
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

    All complimentary and well informed, of course.]

    Naturally.

  4. Would I be correct in assuming that if Australia funds a regional processing centre and the processing of AS outside Australia this would mean that the appeals process would no longer flow through Australian courts ?

  5. [As I said on the other thread – The Dinasours in the Victorian Police Association are really running Victoria Police.]

    Like the WA Police, based on what we’ve seen.

  7. Thanks MTBW
    I know Gary is hard to convice. Like most of the bloggers here he waves his ALP factional credentials like a footy team banner and cannot/willnot see any faults in his team. If this were a truly “public forum” like Q&A or a radio program then I can understand why he would do this, but on a blog like PB, surely the point is to understand what is really happpending and to learn from one another, rather than go into denial when someone points out stuff you do not want to hear.

    In any case the denial seems odd becaus the polls are indicating quite widespread disatisfaction with the government and they are not seeming to shift about much. The 46.5 two party preferred vote seems rather entrenched. I would have thought that all ALP members including those of the NSW right would wish to understand WHY and anecdotal comments from friends and relatives are one of the best ways to get this information.

  10. Victoria

    From what I can gather … and I am definitely not an expert… is that when outsiders come in to run police forces in this country it rarely ends happily.

    Though Overland has been in Victoria for a while, I think he may have come from the Feds.

  12. ASEAN summit over the weekend to discuss people smuggling and improved regional cooperation on the matter.

    Australia is not taking any formal part but other influential countries in the region such as Indonesia are.

  14. [155

    confessions

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

    As I said on the other thread – The Dinasours in the Victorian Police Association are really running Victoria Police.

    Like the WA Police, based on what we’ve seen.
    ]

    Who dislike Dr Karl O’Callagahn who has a Phd and rose through the ranks without serving as a Detective – having been mainly a Traffic Cop.

  15. Gweneth

    a link to the ABC version of the story was posted earlier today. Good on the people of Leonora!

  17. Victoria

    I could imagine that the vast majority of the population would find the culture positively awful. But you got to have em. And compared to most of the world .. they would be pristine.

  18. [Gary
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    Chris Bowen was looking particularly smug on the TV last night. I am not sure if they have too much to crow about as this government created this political mess and has not been successful in doing much about it – we have to wait for the details – but seriously big backflips, u turns – whatever you like to call them – always carry some political baggage with them.

    We don’t know that that is a backflip yet.]

    Precisely Gary. There is no point having a go at Julia or Bowen or the Govt, accusing them of back flips, getting the undies in a knot around the danglers, until the decision is announced.
    Deep breaths and carry on, thats the way to go, let Abbott and his henchman Morrison do all the worrying…they have been played like a fish on a line today, time will tell. There are a few media idiots who have been performing like seals as well today, Julia has been enjoying herself. Never under estimate this lady.

  21. victoria,

    I really have no idea but, on a wild guess only, a centre that is run by the United Nations where AS from across the region are processed and once approved a committement from Australia to take the majority.

    I have this idea that the push for this centre became a much higher priority for Australia when the High/Federal ( ? ) Court handed down its decision regarding the appeal process for rejected claims.

  22. Doyley

    That is why processing them onshore is not an option unless there was bipartisan support. We can see that this is not going to happen. Abbott and Morrison have been milking this issue for all its worth.

  23. There have been reports on twitter that at the time of announcing the East Timor regional processing centre, the PM also mentioned PNG. Has this been confirmed?

  24. [Doyley

    That is why processing them onshore is not an option unless there was bipartisan support. We can see that this is not going to happen. Abbott and Morrison have been milking this issue for all its worth.]

    And they will be snookered if the govt moves to regional processing centres and the boats dry up as a result.

    Their negativity works in an election campaign — but given we’ve got 2.5 years to go, it may well be that boats aren’t an issue then… and there will disappear one of the oppositions “planks”

    As I said the other day, abject negativity will only get you so far…

  25. What a load of BS:

    [ead_about_itMark Phillips

    With the PNG Solution, I’d say Julia Gillard has handed Adam Bandt Melbourne for 2 more terms.

    13 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  26. [Chris Bowen was looking particularly smug on the TV last night. I am not sure if they have too much to crow about as this government created this political mess and has not been successful in doing much about it – we have to wait for the details – but seriously big backflips, u turns – whatever you like to call them – always carry some political baggage with them.]

    Perhaps the deal includes some kind of general regional agreement with other countries? And that it has been in the works for quite a while — the govt might have ‘let’ the opps bang on about Timor Leste, uncontested, for a very good reason.

    In other words, while Morrison and Abbott were wangking and yelling from the sidelines — the govt have been negotiating.

    This govt knows that Abbott couldn’t negotiate his way out of a wet paperbag. All they have to do is negotiate behind his back and Abbottabad will continue to be negotiatabad.

  27. Victoria,

    Agreed.

    I really would like to see Australia take the majority of/ all successful AS as part of any regional agreement.

    I think this would remove the perception of queue jumping and boats ! boats ! and also satisfy the left to some degree.

    In the political reality that is Australia today that is the best result possible.

  28. Okay. I can’t find anything online that suggests Gillard and Labor included PNG in plans for a regional processing centre in ET. Quite the opposite, they explicitly refer to Manus Is in dissing the Pacific Solution.

    I think we can write this one off as a twitter meme.

  29. jenauthor

    the story about East Timor not agreeing to a centre had been repeated several times over the past month. I waited for a govt response and nothing was forthcoming. That is when I knew something was up and that we would get some type of announcement soon enough.

  30. jenauthor,

    I have a theory. Totally founded on nothing. BUT here goes…

    I suspect that there is not going to be a Regional solution with out more than two parties being involved. I wonder (and I am going out on a limb here) whether Timor Leste may be off the table as a location but that they have found someone else to fund or co-fund the solution.

    IF that is the case the high court decision makes offshore processing totally viable.

  32. [There have been reports on twitter that at the time of announcing the East Timor regional processing centre, the PM also mentioned PNG. Has this been confirmed?]

    Yep — Rod Hagen posted a link to the speech, in which she clearly stated it.

    The media and Abbottabad are the ones who simply assumed Labor had their eggs all in one basket.

    That method, it appears, is not Julia’s way of doing things. I think she keeps several balls in the air and ultimately goes with the best option.

  33. victoria,

    Possibly. I am thinking bigger and recent trip. I know they pour lots of money into PNG.

  36. [This govt knows that Abbott couldn’t negotiate his way out of a wet paperbag. All they have to do is negotiate behind his back and Abbottabad will continue to be negotiatabad.]

    Abbotabad is such a negotiatabad it took him a year to work ou a time for a surfing lesson. Can you imagine how long it’d take to actually make a deal with an opposing political party?

  37. [Perhaps the deal includes some kind of general regional agreement with other countries? And that it has been in the works for quite a while — the govt might have ‘let’ the opps bang on about Timor Leste, uncontested, for a very good reason.]

    Exactly.

    A regional framework was agreed for a reason.

    http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/releases/2011/kr_mr_110330.html

    The MSM (and esp. their ABC) are just too thick to be able to see things other than through an Abbott press release prism!

  40. victoria,

    Maybe. Like I said I have no evidence for the theory, but it would be a total coup for JG.

    She gets her regional solution, offshore processing funded and managed by someone else means processing the ASs satisfies the high court that they have not been processed on excised Australian land and as such they are not bound by Australian legal jurisdiction. Plus it totally snookers Tone!

    Makes sense to me. But could be an absolute flight of fancy.

  41. I know you lot are big fan’s of Ray Hadley (I’ve never heard him). Here is a lovely piece on the Voice of the People. 😀

    [When Jones, the undisputed king of Australian radio departs his throne, the airwaves of Hadley, his “air apparent,” will be very different.

    Where Jones is the voice of virulent social conservatism, Hadley’s is the voice of the people. His years of taxi driving have not been wasted or forgotten.

    Listeners liked what they heard. Hadley’s opinions are strong but firmly planted in Main Street and his language is assertive and take-no-prisoners sometimes wrong but never in doubt. It is the language of the people, through a filter of football and taxis. It might be at times a bit boofy; a bit blokey, but Hadley manages to maintain a strong female following through a well-honed mix of compassion and warmth.

    After almost three decades on air, it’s a case of familiarity breeds contentment.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/ray-hadley-a-voice-of-the-people/story-e6frg996-1226051346474

  42. [The Bali Process outcome also makes specific reference to a regional assessment centre or centres, as a measure that governments could agree to under the framework.]

    This was released on 30 March for heaven’s sake.

    What do you think has been happening since this time? I’d guess bilateral discussions!

    The MSM are just so clueless, so easily lead.

    They should not be shocked when the government :
    1. follows through with an election promise, and
    2. delivers on something that was agreed to regionally!

    The MSM and their ABC are just so compromised given their support for Abbott they cannot see the wood from the trees — even when it has been staring themselves in the face for weeks.

  44. [After almost three decades on air, it’s a case of familiarity breeds contentment.]

    Hadley’s program is never ‘content’ — it is almost exclusively whinging, screaming, yelling or just plain incendiary.

    I cannot imagine “contentment” would ever by felt by a single one of his listeners.

    What rubbish. The Oz is just totally off this planet. How they write their rubbish with a straight face — and how a certain Adelaide tree surgeon laps it up — I’ll never know!

  46. i was driving home just now and was listening to TheirABC News Radio,

    Oh boy, they are digging the old quotes from Gillard and Smithy on Manu Island. There were enough quotes to fill Sydney Harbour.

    i cant remember TheirABC dug up similar quotes on Abbott’s flip flop on different issues.

  47. Darren Laver,

    The MSM are starting to believe their own propaganda, forgetting they started all the BS “Hail Tone” chants.

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