Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has performed its occasional trick of confusing the hell out of people who don’t follow its activities closely, by releasing two sets of opinion poll results at the same time. One is a phone poll from a solid sample of 882 respondents with a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, and it shows what we have come to expect from polls of this kind regardless of who conducts them: the Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred and by 46 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11 per cent. The two-party result is much the same if you use respondent-allocated preferences rather than preferences from the 2010 election result: 54-46.

The other poll covers Morgan’s last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, and has the Coalition lead at 52-48 using 2010 election preferences and 53.5-46.5 using respondent-allocated preferences. It should be noted that the consistent discrepancy in these results, with the former proving more favourable to Labor, has been a recent phenomenon, resulting from a decline in the share of non-major party voters indicating a preference for Labor. The primary votes are at 37 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens.

We also had earlier this week Newspoll results on climate change and the carbon tax, with even worse results for the government than usual: only 30 per cent are in favour of its policy, with 60 per cent opposed. It has of course been shown the the government gets much kinder results if it is put to respondents that most of the money raised will be used for compensation: this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically but possibly obscures some of the issue’s political complexity. Beyond that, 78 per cent “believe in climate change”, and 72 per cent (58 partly, 14 per cent entirely) believe it to be caused by human activity. However, only 39 per cent are in favour of paying more for energy as a result: 30 per cent are opposed despite believing human activity to be a cause, with 28 per cent either not believing or not committed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,793 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face”

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  1. vp

    From the repetition of “I have every confidence in the Police Commissioner but the community are raising questions of their concern” from both Ted and Ryan, I think the govt are trying to please the Police Union and keep at arm’s length from any scandal.

  2. OPT @ 2747
    I campaigned against Billy Snedden over quite a few years and locally he had a reputation as a good local member who dealt with the issues raised by constituents.

    I thought he was out of his depth as Leader of the Opposition.

    It was rather sad to see him end that way and have the media treat it how they did although I was as guilty as anyone at having a bit of a chuckle. Worse for his family of course.

  3. [Anything the Australian have their grubby hands on, smells of an agenda.]

    Bingo, David.

    I have been wondering for some time whether Rupert is deliberately pushing the envelope just to see how much it is possible to shape the political narrative via a few newspapers.

    If it is true that it is what he is doing, it’s working so far. Mind you, I’m yet to be convinced he was personally responsible for ensuring the appointment of his hack journalists to both the board and permanent talking head positions at the ABC but if he wasn’t, it was the most spectacular example of dumb good luck.

  4. As soon as the presser with the Vic leaders was over, the announcer began the next item with “The Federal Oppn have criticised…”

  5. Agree that, politically, it is probably the best the Premier could do. I doubt the review will result in improved effectiveness, efficiency, openness or any other measure.

  6. [If it is true that it is what he is doing, it’s working so far. Mind you, I’m yet to be convinced he was personally responsible for ensuring the appointment of his hack journalists to both the board and permanent talking head positions at the ABC but if he wasn’t, it was the most spectacular example of dumb good luck.]

    It seems to have been working, but i think thats only because the other media outlets have been happy enough, lazy enough, to let place like the OO try to set the agenda, and re-report and regurgitate.

  7. [Danny Lewis

    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    Anything the Australian have their grubby hands on, smells of an agenda.

    Bingo, David.

    I have been wondering for some time whether Rupert is deliberately pushing the envelope just to see how much it is possible to shape the political narrative via a few newspapers.

    If it is true that it is what he is doing, it’s working so far. Mind you, I’m yet to be convinced he was personally responsible for ensuring the appointment of his hack journalists to both the board and permanent talking head positions at the ABC but if he wasn’t, it was the most spectacular example of dumb good luck.
    ]

    Rupert has form.

    The Whitlamsacking has been widdely regarded that it came to a head thanks to Murdoch’s vile campaign against the ALP ibn their publications – and it worked.

    He is hoping for a repeat in 2010 – yet he hasn’t counted that the Independents this time are backing the govt.

    The fibs and Murdoch ar looking for an Albert Field – well they’re ain’t getting one.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Field

  11. Couple of comments at Larvatus Prodeo:

    adrian says:
    May 9, 2011 at 1:53 pm

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/05/09/spotlight-the-spin-50/#comment-309575

    [… Incidentally, the first reaction on ABC News last night to the government’s (admittedly loopy) Malaysian processing policy was from Abbott, with the Bolt logo featuring prominently. Once upon a time when the government announced a new policy, the details of that policy were given prominence. Not now, and not on the ABC – the opposition is allowed to set the agenda over and over again.

    Maybe the ABC should consider outsourcing.]

    Brian says:
    May 9, 2011 at 4:21 pm

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/05/09/spotlight-the-spin-50/#comment-309604

    [adrian @ 3, you are right. It happens again and again all day long. The Opposition spin is headlined. Then you get a quick summary of government policy. Then you get an actual comment by an Opposition spokesperson.

    Then you often get another dose in a recap of the headlines.

    How can this happen under a policy of ‘balance’?]

    They’re probably “paranoid”, too, according to ABC bias-deniers such as Diogenes and ShownUp

  12. Congratulate me! Scott Morrison has blocked me on twitter (obviously didn’t like my ‘home truths’)

  13. [5 for 1 refugee deal with Malaysia]

    This is the Libs line now. They will ditch “stop the boats” and revert to the good old immigration bad line.

  14. Ooohhh, I get to do my Billy Snedden joke:

    Did you hear they found the woman he was sleeping with? She works at AWA, screwing the nuts off old speakers.

  17. [Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 4:04 pm | Permalink
    my say and BG – On the subject of art, there’s a Manet exhibition at the Orsay in Paris til early July. Have any PB’ers been to Paris? I’d love to do a trip to see it. Be wonderful.]

    yes love Paris, when you have been to paris you have to go back.
    the art galleries just the- les Champs Elysées, …magic. to walk there.
    sit in cafes and watch the world pass by and be fascinated by the way they part thier cars in the smallest of spaces.
    the french people are very nice we where told we had to learn french to get by but thats not true they are very hospitable and most speak English.

    funny that isnt the way we expect every to speak english.

  18. Listened to Scott Morrison. AJ spoke over the top of him too but as it was leading him along, Morrison did not mind of course.

    “These people” seemed to be the high point of recognising them as humans.

  20. [5 for 1 refugee deal with Malaysia]
    Deliberately ignoring the main issue and dumbing the whole thing down. I hope Julia serves it up in QT – just over 21 hours away.

  21. [ru,

    Wasn’t the old policy 5000 for none?]

    What weeks policy was that? Was it scripted or written down or just verbal? Did the National Party agree? Did Joe Hockey say something different? Was it costed by Hogwarts?

    So no it wasn’t. 😉

  24. Cuppa,

    I’m not normally in the ABC biased tent. However, the latest contribution by Uhlmann regarding AS and the Government’s policy has me scratching my head. How can he interview Government or Opposition polllies in an unbiased manner on this matter when he has partisan views and will likely skew any interview to those partisan views.

    It’s a very strange ABC that allows players to control the agenda.

    No wonder their 7.30 show is losing viewers in droves.

  27. if i was on the board i axe the 7.3o report and call it this day tonight

    remember that.
    there use to be people who had made policy decision through the day interviewed and from all states and terrirories i dont think the anchor person said much at all

  29. [If this policy does stop the boats, the opposition will have nothing left to say]

    No vic, they have already signalled the route they will take. Morrison has stated that 80% of refugees are still on welfare after 5 years, the 5 for one implying that we are taking more of these welfare sponges. The Australian’s article about “flooding” regional Australia with skilled migrants.

    The cunning plan is being rolled out before our eyes. 🙁

  30. According to the Age, someone has leaked private emails between Overland and Sir Ken to the media. Headline now “Police in turmoil”, but Overland says wtte, I just asked him to do some extra work. What’s the fuss about?
    That man can certainly remain calm under pressure.

  31. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 3:32 pm | Permalink
    VP
    I know, but don’t they have cafes in Amsterdam selling a vegetarian form of relaxation? Or do all the young people really go there for the windmills?]

    Windmill watching is a big drawcard for Dutch I believe. In 2006 wife and I were driving around Europe and found ourselves in Germany with a week to kill so I set the Satnav to Amsterdam and told wife I wanted to go and look at windmills. She didn’t believe me but did see 1 windmill when we eventually left Amsterdam. 😉

  34. There is only one way the Opposition can go from here and that is to just be honest and admit they don’t like towel-heads.

  35. [I’m not normally in the ABC biased tent. However, the latest contribution by Uhlmann regarding AS and the Government’s policy has me scratching my head. How can he interview Government or Opposition polllies in an unbiased manner on this matter when he has partisan views and will likely skew any interview to those partisan views.

    It’s a very strange ABC that allows players to control the agenda.

    No wonder their 7.30 show is losing viewers in droves.]

    GG,

    Uhlmann makes no secret of his views about climate change either. He shares numerous characteristics and experiences with Abbott:

    1) He’s stood for election as a conservative candidate.

    2) Ex-seminarian.

    3) Writes opinion pieces for conservative magazines.

    4) Abbott nominated Uhlmann, out of all the journalists in the press gallery, as his preferred moderator for the second Leaders’ Debate in the last federal election.

  37. Murdoch The Dark Overlord._
    ___________________
    Like some James Bond villain hatching his vile plots for world domination,Murdoch is the ultimate politician… All his efforts are aimed a power over politicians and governments. a kind of Dr No !!

    A truly frustrated politician who is power hungry.
    Australia is just a mere sideshow.. The USA is his field of dreams.,where his networks seek to dominate the White House itself…truly power over the planet!

    In the UK his minions are in deep trouble however…but Rupert will survive..he is too big to tackle and all the politicians live in fear of him !

    Let’s hope he doesn’t inherit all his Mum’s genes !!
    His father Keith… died much younger…so let’s keep hoping.

    Perhaps then his Empire will come under the control of wife Wendy…and move to Shanghai or Beijing…it couldn’t be worse !

  38. A bit of background on Simon Overland:
    [With an honours degree in law and arts, he began his career in the Australian Federal Police(AFP), where he worked in the taskforce that investigated the murder of AFP Assistant Commissioner Colin Winchester. He served about 19 years with the AFP; during this time he was selected by Australia’s Police Commissioners to lead the Implementation Team that created the Australian Crime Commission in January, 2003.]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Overland

    He’s no patsy.

  39. Danny,

    [There is only one way the Opposition can go from here and that is to just be honest …]

    Ha ha, very droll, Danny, that’ll be the day!

  40. The particularly interesting thing, from my perspective, with:

    5 for 1 refugee deal with Malaysia

    is what the actual public reaction is going to be. For a long time the justification (self-justification and from the liberal party) for why Australians were particularly hostile to boat people was that they were ‘queue jumpers’, rather than any dislike of or lack of sympathy for refugees in general.

    Well, we will see – Abbott has been playing the ‘bad deal’ line, as if refugees were trash and we have been ‘dudded ‘for getting 5 back for each one we send – if Australians really are compassionate but with concerns for due process and orderliness, surely Abbott’s approach will sound callous and fail politically.

    On the other hand, it could be simple xenophobia, in which case he’ll reap the political rewards, and I’ll be even more unhappy about the great Australian public.

  41. [Lots of great artists other than Vermeer and Rembrandt, though, B-G.]

    Yeah. Like those by van Gough’s friend, Australian Russell, John Peter (1858 – 1930)

    [Russell was warm-hearted: friendships were of the greatest importance to him. He keenly felt Roberts’s return to Australia in 1885, while in Paris his friendship with van Gogh (whom he had met at Cormon’s) is commemorated by his fine portrait-study now at the Rijksmuseum Vincent van Gogh, Amsterdam.]

    He’s represented in Paris, even in the Pushkin collection; although, for an Aussie, the Pushkin’s real kick’s Grace Cossington Smith (1892-1984) a few decades bach she was hung a few pics from a stunning Van Gough & in the same room as the best Pink Period Picasso I’ve even seen.

  42. [5 for 1 refugee deal with Malaysia

    This is the Libs line now. They will ditch “stop the boats” and revert to the good old immigration bad line.]

    Transparent now they have been snookered.

    the caring, compassionate line about deaths at sea was, as anyone who is not a jibbering moron could ascertain, was a rouse, a ploy to dupe the non racist bogan, who wanted to see conservative compassion.

    Now the Malaysia solution which just may work has been brought into being, in conjunction with Manus Island, the Liberals have dropped all pretence to compassion, and have gone for the lowest possible common denominator.

    They are trying to fool their bogan racist supporters that the 4000 we get from Malaysia are they same as the 800 we are sending there.

    Bit of a problem here.

    1) Abbottabad promised he would take even more of “these people” as Mr Compassion, Morrison calls them (he wanted 15k to the Labor revised total of 13,500). So now he is saying taking 4000 “these people” is worse than his “policy” of 15,000???? How does that work?

    2)The 800 are queue jumping illegals (the term the Tories love) and the 4000 are genuine processed refugees looking for a home. Why demonise these “queue abiding legals?”

    3) Malaysia is not a signatory to the Convention on Refugees and the 800 may be subjected to nasty stuff from the Malays. Wouldn’t thay be happy then (if they are wearing their compassionate hat) that a net of 3200 are being rescued by Australia from the nasty malays.

    4) Naura is not a signatory either and has no processed “genuine” refugees to send to Australia (anyway PNG is a signatory so Naura is a redundant argument).

    The conservatives and their MSM lackey have been caught off guard, with the MSM giving grudging praise and the oppo completely snookered and reverting to racism and outright lies from Abbottabad and Morrisonabad.

    Found wanting, both the MSM and the opposition response.

  43. My Say,

    [i sent that link re the abc to the ministers office in melbourne]

    Perhaps we should be demanding the government conduct an open public inquiry into the ABC.

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