Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has performed its occasional trick of confusing the hell out of people who don’t follow its activities closely, by releasing two sets of opinion poll results at the same time. One is a phone poll from a solid sample of 882 respondents with a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, and it shows what we have come to expect from polls of this kind regardless of who conducts them: the Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred and by 46 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11 per cent. The two-party result is much the same if you use respondent-allocated preferences rather than preferences from the 2010 election result: 54-46.

The other poll covers Morgan’s last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, and has the Coalition lead at 52-48 using 2010 election preferences and 53.5-46.5 using respondent-allocated preferences. It should be noted that the consistent discrepancy in these results, with the former proving more favourable to Labor, has been a recent phenomenon, resulting from a decline in the share of non-major party voters indicating a preference for Labor. The primary votes are at 37 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens.

We also had earlier this week Newspoll results on climate change and the carbon tax, with even worse results for the government than usual: only 30 per cent are in favour of its policy, with 60 per cent opposed. It has of course been shown the the government gets much kinder results if it is put to respondents that most of the money raised will be used for compensation: this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically but possibly obscures some of the issue’s political complexity. Beyond that, 78 per cent “believe in climate change”, and 72 per cent (58 partly, 14 per cent entirely) believe it to be caused by human activity. However, only 39 per cent are in favour of paying more for energy as a result: 30 per cent are opposed despite believing human activity to be a cause, with 28 per cent either not believing or not committed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,793 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face”

Comments Page 3 of 56
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  2. sprocket

    Abbott and Morrison are shit scared about what the govt has in fact got up its sleeve. The PM looked like the cat that swallowed the canary today.

  3. confessions, public ownership is a hard issue to discuss these days. It’s a different approach in each State, Govt’s of both sides have swings and roundabouts in their policies, and lessons learnt in one State (eg Victoria) are not learnt in others. When it comes to communications, Telstra has burnt many bridges with the Australian public (partly itself, and partly through Govt handling), so discussion of the NBN ownership is clouded again by where the information comes from and how you interpret it. Like Telstra, most people don’t really understand what it’s about, so don’t really know who should own it. My view – Govt should own the asset, industry uses it.

  4. [daretotread

    You will learn that Gary is very hard to convince!]
    You will also learn that some are easily lead.

  5. Thanks Confessions.

    The stories are different.

    I think there are enough differences betwen the two that they are not similar.

  6. BK

    Thanks for posting link to Ed Schultz. He reminded why I despised Bush and the US is now up shit creek without a paddle.

  7. [GetUp!? BIG NEWS: Guess who’s going surfing with Tony Abbott tomorrow? We’ll be live tweeting the event from Sydney’s northern beaches from about 1030a tomorrow. …]

    Well, that was entirely predictable.

    Anything to keep the fluff going and to avoid any scrutiny of anything approaching ACTUAL POLICIES.

    What a brainless twat. I can’t believe he was a Rhodes Scholar. Crude as it is, one must ask the question … who did he have to bonk to get that? He certainly didn’t get it on intellectual rigour alone, given, in his case, it is sadly lacking.

  8. [Abbott and Morrison are shit scared about what the govt has in fact got up its sleeve. The PM looked like the cat that swallowed the canary today.]
    I agree.

  12. [shellbell
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

    re Koperberg, BG see below.

    Adam Searle was very close to Jeff Shaw QC, really NSW’s best Attorney-General for many a year, and of course a sad victim to the evil drink]

    I shouldn’t really have bought into that stoush. Lots of sewage floating around and its hard to tell who is the source of the sh_t.

  15. LATIKAMBOURKE | 6 minutes ago
    [Mark Simkin on ABCTV reports a Labor MP saying a detention centre on PNG would ‘placate the rednecks,’ although worries about PMs ]

  17. [Mark Simkin on ABCTV reports a Labor MP saying a detention centre on PNG would ‘placate the rednecks,’ although worries about PMs]
    And the name of that MP is? Or is this one of those sources?

  20. “Abbott and Morrison are shit scared about what the govt has in fact got up its sleeve. The PM looked like the cat that swallowed the canary today”

    Chris Bowen was looking particularly smug on the TV last night. I am not sure if they have too much to crow about as this government created this political mess and has not been successful in doing much about it – we have to wait for the details – but seriously big backflips, u turns – whatever you like to call them – always carry some political baggage with them.

  21. [”Well I can’t see it being resolved if we allow little tin-pot operations like the Northern Territory and the ACT being given the same status as NSW and Victoria,” he (Senator Steve Hutchins) said yesterday.]
    How to win friends and influence people. What does he gain from this?

  22. JofM:

    I think Mumble’s analyses show the govt has an uphill battle to sell its carbon tax and get re-elected. Working against the govt are a) that it’s a minority govt, and b) that the govt has done a poor job in the past of bringing voters with it as its achieved reform.

  23. [Chris Bowen was looking particularly smug on the TV last night. I am not sure if they have too much to crow about as this government created this political mess and has not been successful in doing much about it – we have to wait for the details – but seriously big backflips, u turns – whatever you like to call them – always carry some political baggage with them.]
    We don’t know that that is a backflip yet.

  24. I imagine this is the last thing Baillieu needs.

    [Police in crisis: Sir Ken Jones ordered to leave force immediately

    * Staff writers
    * From: Herald Sun
    * May 06, 2011 4:24PM

    Chief Commissioner Simon Overland (right) today ordered Deputy Commissioner Sir Ken Jones (left) to leave the force immediately. Source: Herald Sun

    UPDATE 4.40pm: VICTORIA Police is in crisis after Sir Ken Jones was today ordered to leave the organisation immediately.

    The Herald Sun revealed that Deputy Commissioner Sir Ken was ordered into a meeting with police chief Simon Overland today.

    As a result of the meeting, where a lawyer was present, Sir Ken was told to pack his belongings and leave the force immediately.

    “The Chief Commissioner has asked Sir Ken Jones to finish at the end of today because it is right for both him and Victoria Police,” a spokesman for the force said.

    “He will be taking existing leave and finishing with the organisation, as per his email to staff earlier this week, on Friday 5 August.]

  26. [I think Mumble’s analyses show the govt has an uphill battle to sell its carbon tax and get re-elected. Working against the govt are a) that it’s a minority govt, and b) that the govt has done a poor job in the past of bringing voters with it as its achieved reform.]
    What reform have they achieved where the people were not brought with them?

  28. [* Staff writers]

    Hilarious. Whenever I see News Ltd relying on ‘staff writers’ I think of the war the OO waged on Grog, outing his identity, and trying to make waves with his employer.

    It’s one rule for those PR flack elitists and another for the ordinary folk just blogging their own personal views.

  29. [What reform have they achieved where the people were not brought with them?]
    Not just reform, but actions as well. IMHO, the “pink batts” saga was a good idea, a good policy, and (as shown by Possum) reasonably well implemented, yet it still stinks out there in voterland (I’ll go there some time!). The Govt capitulated to three word slogans and bad publicity, and never recovered.

  32. Victoria @ 127

    Why? This is more likely to be a Simon Overland issue than a government issue. After all the government has ‘confidence’ in Simon Overland…….

  33. [Whenever I see “staff writers” I assume they’ve just been making shit up]
    It’s the office next to Bolt…..

  35. ABC24 just left the newstudio mikes on as they are showing a sports piece.

    The entire studio was full of giggles over the top of the story.

    Go ABC24

  36. [”Well I can’t see it being resolved if we allow little tin-pot operations like the Northern Territory and the ACT being given the same status as NSW and Victoria,” he (Senator Steve Hutchins) said yesterday.]

    These comments, if correctly attributed, are highly offensive.

    ACT Chief Minister, Jon Stanhope, was right to condemn them and even more correct to point out that it was rich for a NSW Right member to be criticising anyone about good governance.

    Indeed the ACT is the best run state/territory by a country mile and Stanhope remains broadly popular unlike the other “tired” Labor governments.

    This is about equality for all Australian citizens, regardless of their residence in the Commonwealth. Any politician who opposes this is against democracy and has no place in any serious political party in this country.

  37. [victoria
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    Bburnseph

    Does the govt have confidence in Overland?]

    Serious question; do the Victorian people have confidence in Overland? Or is it just a beat up?

  38. [What reform have they achieved where the people were not brought with them?]

    1. The first the general public heard about how the govt stimulus had averted recession was during the election campaign, a year after the event.

    2. The BER was allowed to be discredited by the useless shrill Pyne.

    3. The first we heard about the success of the HIP was via Possum and his work unravelling the data. Mind you, the HIP is still viewed by the electorate as a failure. Most unfair that Poss isn’t in the msm.

    4. The work the govt has done with trade training is almost universally regarded by people as a good thing – tell your friends what they are doing, and you;ll see that I’m right. But they get no credit for it. Why? Because nobody owns it.

  39. Victoria

    I heard Ted Baillieu say on the radio that he had ‘confidence’ in Simon Overland. Do you follow the footy? Are you familiar with the phrase that x (insert coaches name) has the ‘confidence of the board’?

  41. Bburn

    Yes I do follow footy, and that is why I ask does Ballieu really have confidence in Overland?

    bg

    Personally I think Overland is a good operator, but like his predecessor, he has those who do not want him there.

  43. Despite Friday’s being local 730 we still get this:

    [

    abc730abc730

    #abc730 is local on Friday nights. Tonight including report from @CUhlmann on PNG asylum seeker talks

    19 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  45. [141

    victoria

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

    Bburn

    Yes I do follow footy, and that is why I ask does Ballieu really have confidence in Overland?

    bg

    Personally I think Overland is a good operator, but like his predecessor, he has those who do not want him there.
    ]

    As I said on the other thread – The Dinasours in the Victorian Police Association are really running Victoria Police.

  46. Ah. ANdrew Bolt not just unhappy about Sir Ken being sacked. Apparently the moderate Liberal Multicultural Minister has uspet him too.

    [Kotsiris should remember he’s not an apologist but a Minister, and has a duty not to misrepresent crime statistics or ignore the sexisim, rejectionism and social alienation represented by a burqa:]

    [MUSLIM women who choose to wear the face-covering burqa should be entitled to do as they pleased, says Victoria’s multicultural affairs minister.

    Nick Kotsiras has also praised the Sudanese community who have come under scrutiny in the aftermath of outbreaks of street brawling after a youth beauty pageant last month.

    ‘’We have not got a Sudanese problem in Australia – or in Melbourne. There are 8000 Sudanese living in Victoria, the vast majority are hard-working, law-abiding citizens ‘’…]

    Followed by 75 comments.

  47. [Despite Friday’s being local 730 we still get this:

    abc730abc730

    #abc730 is local on Friday nights. Tonight including report from @CUhlmann on PNG asylum seeker talks

    19 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

    Poor old Chris, he cannot help himself. And nor, it seems, can their ABC inflicting us with him even on the supposed 7.30 free nights!

    It will be most funny if and when it turns out the government is in negotiations with other countries in the region, as per the regional framework (!), and it turns out PNG is not a goer.

    They are just so lazy, so narrow-looking these so-called journalists.

    They haven’t a clue and simply make stuff up — and get away with it — a job with less accountability I think does not exist!

  50. [ Indeed the ACT is the best run state/territory by a country mile…

    The NCDC ran it better.]

    Well might it have, Rua — you’re clearly older than I — but ‘guided democracies’ are not appropriate — even if they are better run!

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