Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has performed its occasional trick of confusing the hell out of people who don’t follow its activities closely, by releasing two sets of opinion poll results at the same time. One is a phone poll from a solid sample of 882 respondents with a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, and it shows what we have come to expect from polls of this kind regardless of who conducts them: the Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred and by 46 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11 per cent. The two-party result is much the same if you use respondent-allocated preferences rather than preferences from the 2010 election result: 54-46.

The other poll covers Morgan’s last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, and has the Coalition lead at 52-48 using 2010 election preferences and 53.5-46.5 using respondent-allocated preferences. It should be noted that the consistent discrepancy in these results, with the former proving more favourable to Labor, has been a recent phenomenon, resulting from a decline in the share of non-major party voters indicating a preference for Labor. The primary votes are at 37 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens.

We also had earlier this week Newspoll results on climate change and the carbon tax, with even worse results for the government than usual: only 30 per cent are in favour of its policy, with 60 per cent opposed. It has of course been shown the the government gets much kinder results if it is put to respondents that most of the money raised will be used for compensation: this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically but possibly obscures some of the issue’s political complexity. Beyond that, 78 per cent “believe in climate change”, and 72 per cent (58 partly, 14 per cent entirely) believe it to be caused by human activity. However, only 39 per cent are in favour of paying more for energy as a result: 30 per cent are opposed despite believing human activity to be a cause, with 28 per cent either not believing or not committed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,793 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face”

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  1. Hi Guys,

    I am all excited. When I left at lunchtime today there were crews who had blocked the road outside my driveway. My mind being elsewhere I didn’t take much notice but what I did notice was they were working on the overhead electrical lines – laying this humungous reel of cable.

    Could this be the NBN?

  3. [ So Tone’s been on the BirdshitPhone then.]

    I reckon Tone made them a promise, and hasn’t been able to keep it. Thus he won’t stop harping.

  5. William,

    you could also add Morgan’s republic/royal wedding poll and the afghanistan/osama-is-he-dead poll.

  6. Bilbo,

    It is also worthwhile pointing out that the Newspoll poll did not mention/ask whether their response would change in light of compensation being paid.

  8. BK,

    I’ll do some digging tomorrow, but if it is the NBN I will beg to be the first and offer to be their poster child!

  10. I am really looking forward to no one watching Andrew Bolt on Sunday. Anyone planning to boycott the advertisers?

  11. [It is also worthwhile pointing out that the Newspoll poll did not mention/ask whether their response would change in light of compensation being paid.]
    Kidette
    That NewsPoll was bordering on push polling.

  12. […this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically…]

    In fact it sets a good base line for the same question to be asked in the future.

  14. Wilkie fires a principled warning shot across Labor’s bows as it tacks further to starboard:
    [A key independent MP says he won’t allow the “demonising” of people on welfare through federal budget changes to the social security system.

    The federal government has flagged a raft of reforms in Tuesday’s budget to get more single parents, the disabled and the long-term unemployed off welfare and into work or training.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/mp-wont-allow-demonising-welfare-changes-20110506-1ebn3.html

  15. [BK,

    I’ll do some digging tomorrow, but if it is the NBN I will beg to be the first and offer to be their poster child!]
    Not with a spade, I hope!

  16. [Does it follow then that we can take the published polls as being representative of what the community must think!]
    I have never said any different.

  18. [Space Kidette
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    bg,

    What is this about Bolt?]

    His new show on Ch 10.

  19. blue-green:

    I have better things to do with my Sunday morning than watch adverts in Bolt’s new show.

  23. bg,

    You won’t ever get me watching it. So some other brave PB soul will have to report.

    bk,

    Only the investigative kind of digging!

  26. Just called the PNG proposal (which hasn’t been announced) as a BIG Backflip proving that the govt has lost it in the AS question. And of course, showed the Abbott bit where he said Julia should swallow pride and pick up the phone to Nauru

  27. [Frank Calabrese

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    William,

    Do you have any info on when Phil Koperberg joined the ALP ?
    ]

    I just answered my own question at post 24 🙂

    Funny it was the Daily terror which provided the eleusive piece of the Koperberg puzzle.

  28. Gary

    I had typed out a nice long reply about how it can be worth listening to what family and friends say … and then it fell down the big black hole of the new thread.. but the gist was that you can pick up trends and find out what is flying below the radar but you need to be discerning. It is the surprises that are most interesting not what you hear from those from whom you already know what they are going to say. It also helps to listen and observe and not necessarily talk.

  29. [That NewsPoll was bordering on push polling.]

    A push poll is one designed to sound like a poll but really to introduce a notion to a voter surreptitiously.

    E.g. How would feel if you found out your local MP rogers chickens?

  30. My friends are either labor voters or small l liberals with very uncertain voting intentions based on the direction the liberal party is heading at the moment. All hate Abbott.

    Does that mean Abbott is hated across the community at the moment and the liberals are not doing very well ? No it does not.

    As far as I am concerned what it means is people are attracted to those with similar outlooks on life and any straw poll of friends is not a very good long term indicator of what the community is thinking on issues of importance.

    I am sure ( not ) a dinner of liberal voting friends a week before the 2007 election would have been a good indicator of what the community was feeling.

    I agree with Gary on this issue.

    At the moment the polls support a disinterest in labor but using this to justify what a circle of friends think as being gospel is fraught with danger long term.

  31. Frank

    Well researched. Thank You. He was probably set up for a fall. Good luck to him on the O’Farrell government recognising that he is very highly qualified to do the new job.

  32. [That NewsPoll was bordering on push polling.]

    Tosh. Respondents were asked to state their opinion “based on what you may know about it”. On what other basis can voters make their decision? It’s when pollsters start explaining policies to respondents that things start to get dubious.

  33. [Just called the PNG proposal (which hasn’t been announced) as a BIG Backflip proving that the govt has lost it in the AS question. And of course, showed the Abbott bit where he said Julia should swallow pride and pick up the phone to Nauru]
    Both 7 and 9 news gave the PNG proposal 10 to 15 seconds each. No Tone.

  35. Rod Hagen on twitter pointed out that back when the East Timor option was first proposed in mid 2010 the PM also mentioned PNG as an option but ruled out Nauru as it’s not a signatory to UNHCR. Selective memory our MSM

    Channel 10 now doing promo for Bolt – uggh

  36. [blackburnpseph

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    Well researched. Thank You. He was probably set up for a fall. Good luck to him on the O’Farrell government recognising that he is very highly qualified to do the new job.
    ]

    Indeed – and it’s funny how those saying he was a vitim of the faction system forgot that he only became an ALP member once he was wooed by Bob Debus.

  37. Gary remind me who it was that was claiming anything as scientific. Others were simply reporting what they were hearing ………or is that not allowed?

  38. [I had typed out a nice long reply about how it can be worth listening to what family and friends say … and then it fell down the big black hole of the new thread.. but the gist was that you can pick up trends and find out what is flying below the radar but you need to be discerning. It is the surprises that are most interesting not what you hear from those from whom you already know what they are going to say. It also helps to listen and observe and not necessarily talk.]
    Sorry blackburn but I’m not convinced you can use these “surprises” to then make a judgement that the majority of the community are also thinking this way.

  39. [38

    Gary

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    I had typed out a nice long reply about how it can be worth listening to what family and friends say … and then it fell down the big black hole of the new thread.. but the gist was that you can pick up trends and find out what is flying below the radar but you need to be discerning. It is the surprises that are most interesting not what you hear from those from whom you already know what they are going to say. It also helps to listen and observe and not necessarily talk.

    Sorry blackburn but I’m not convinced you can use these “surprises” to then make a judgement that the majority of the community are also thinking this way.

    Sort of like how Talkback Radio is a representative of the broader community 🙂

  40. [Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Gary remind me who it was that was claiming anything as scientific. Others were simply reporting what they were hearing ………or is that not allowed?]

    Apparently you can only report opinion here if you have a poll with a MOE of about +/- 3%.

    That is unless you are the ALP right where you can base an election campaign on a focus group of ten people from Penrith.

  41. Just heard the COunicl for Internation Development (whoever they are).

    He said the Australian Govt should not be concerned about Asylum Seekers; they should instead create peace in and stop the persecution in Afganistan and Sri Lanka.

    Thats a much easier thing to do 😉

  42. [bluegreen

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Gary remind me who it was that was claiming anything as scientific. Others were simply reporting what they were hearing ………or is that not allowed?

    Apparently you can only report opinion here if you have a poll with a MOE of about +/- 3%.

    That is unless you are the ALP right where you can base an election campaign on a focus group of ten people from Penrith.
    ]

    Guess what ?

    Tony’s Three Word were also te results of “Focus Groups” 🙂

  43. [Wilkie fires a principled warning shot across Labor’s bows as it tacks further to starboard]

    What, so he’s going to change his allegiance to the people who REALLY hate asylum seekers?

    Please! An ambit claim is one thing; rank stupidity is another.

  45. [Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister has confirmed Australia asked his country to house a regional processing centre for asylum seekers.]

    This is all the factual information we have at this moment. Yet we have hours of drivel and pages of newsprint giving the views of experts on something they have no factual basis to base their comments on.

  46. Gary

    I never said “the majority of the community” – and it is by necessity a small sample – but there is a bit of the six degrees of separation about it.

  47. [Gary remind me who it was that was claiming anything as scientific. Others were simply reporting what they were hearing ………or is that not allowed?]
    Let me remind you that you agreed with this statement.
    [Anecdotal evidence from friends and relatives tell me that the fall in ALP standing is widespread….]
    So not only were others reporting what they were hearing but they were also concluding these thoughts were widespread. That to me is a leap in logic.
    I don’t recall ever saying anything here was not allowed.

  48. [Others were simply reporting what they were hearing ………or is that not allowed?]

    My reports of qualitative research findings undertaken by me as part of broader research studies funded by both the NHMRC and ARC were dismissed as “anecdotal yarns”.

    It does indeed “get ridiculous on here sometimes.”

  49. Gary
    I think that you are not wise to ignore or overlook what your “friends and relatives” are saying , because despite being “unscientific” it is still valid information PROVIDED it is recognised that there is much room for bias and error.

    I understand that Ben Chiefly when he wanted to know what the world REALLY thought went incognito (you could still do that then) to a barber’s shop. The chit chat in the queue was good enough fo him.

    Firstly if your friends are relatively in-tune with the ordinary people, then their views on events and personalities are very likely to reflect a much, much wider group, especially if two or more from different social networks eg work colleagues AND relatives or school friends and the people on the bus are saying the same sort of thing. This does indicate a likely real sentiment that will probably anticipate more “scientific” polling.

    Most importantly, the friends and relatives and conversations in the shop or bus can go much deeper than the polls and give a grasp as to why people are polling well or badly (or at least give an idea of the justification for a preferred voting pattern). Is it personal eg Julia’s dressing, earlobes hair or voice or is it Abbott’s walk, tongue or biking? Are people really scared about the bills or job security or is it that the bus is always late? is it because they follow alan Jones?

    Finally it is particularly relevant if friends, rellatives or the lady in the shop, tell you they are CHANGING their vote, because when they do this it is very often a warning sign of a very large groundswell of opinion. The decision to change plus the willingness to tell the world are evidence of a REAL change in sentiment.

    Those who ignore it or dismiss it should not be giving any political strategy advice to anyone, as the chances are they will not see the world and people as they are, but just see how they wish them to be.

    Of course if you only have ONE friend and never chat to anyone in the shop or bus or church, then the significance of the change of views may be rather less than someone who has a big circle of friends and reports that 3-5 of them are changing their votes.

  50. Gary

    [I don’t recall ever saying anything here was not allowed.]

    That wasn’t meant to be a quote from you it was a question!

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