Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has performed its occasional trick of confusing the hell out of people who don’t follow its activities closely, by releasing two sets of opinion poll results at the same time. One is a phone poll from a solid sample of 882 respondents with a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, and it shows what we have come to expect from polls of this kind regardless of who conducts them: the Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred and by 46 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11 per cent. The two-party result is much the same if you use respondent-allocated preferences rather than preferences from the 2010 election result: 54-46.

The other poll covers Morgan’s last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, and has the Coalition lead at 52-48 using 2010 election preferences and 53.5-46.5 using respondent-allocated preferences. It should be noted that the consistent discrepancy in these results, with the former proving more favourable to Labor, has been a recent phenomenon, resulting from a decline in the share of non-major party voters indicating a preference for Labor. The primary votes are at 37 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens.

We also had earlier this week Newspoll results on climate change and the carbon tax, with even worse results for the government than usual: only 30 per cent are in favour of its policy, with 60 per cent opposed. It has of course been shown the the government gets much kinder results if it is put to respondents that most of the money raised will be used for compensation: this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically but possibly obscures some of the issue’s political complexity. Beyond that, 78 per cent “believe in climate change”, and 72 per cent (58 partly, 14 per cent entirely) believe it to be caused by human activity. However, only 39 per cent are in favour of paying more for energy as a result: 30 per cent are opposed despite believing human activity to be a cause, with 28 per cent either not believing or not committed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,793 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition phone poll, 52-48 face-to-face”

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  1. From the earlier Koperberg Article I posted.

    [Left wing powerbrokers engineered the move not just to pull in a high-profile candidate but also to rout the “soft left” candidate Adam Searle, who was being backed by local right-wing members.

    Mr Searle’s supporters said that Mr Debus, a member of the so-called “hard left”, had always “had it in” for the Blue Mountains councillor.
    ]

    So Koperberg, who got in tanks to the “FActions” is now blaming them when things didn’t go his way ?

    Hmmmm

  2. [I never said “the majority of the community” – and it is by necessity a small sample – but there is a bit of the six degrees of separation about it.]
    Fair enough but it is a big stretch to be generalising using these opinions of that small sample.

  4. [My reports of qualitative research findings undertaken by me as part of broader research studies funded by both the NHMRC and ARC were dismissed as “anecdotal yarns”. ]

    Confessions, if we rename the ARC to the AR&FGC, I think we can get more cash from Arbib.

  6. From my own experience, neither my friends or even my family are good indicators of what the broader electorate are thinking. Even my politically disengaged friends and family have proven themselves to be unreliable in predicting voter sentiment.

  7. [From my own experience, neither my friends or even my family are good indicators of what the broader electorate are thinking. Even my politically disengaged friends and family have proven themselves to be unreliable in predicting voter sentiment.]
    Hence Poll Bludger, confessions.

    Not that we are that reliable either …. 🙂

  11. [confessions

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

    From my own experience, neither my friends or even my family are good indicators of what the broader electorate are thinking. Even my politically disengaged friends and family have proven themselves to be unreliable in predicting voter sentiment.
    ]

    Agreed,

    If you believe 2GB et al by rights There would have been an Abbott Govt with a majority of 100- nil

  12. [there is even a link to donate funds to a bank account in Mount Gambier owned by the Climate Sceptics.]
    I’d like to make a withdrawal, a large one, from that account.

  13. [confessions
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

    blue-green:

    Or otherwise know as The Lindsay Test Research Fund.]

    🙂

  14. [If you believe 2GB et al by rights There would have been an Abbott Govt with a majority of 100- nil]
    And a big floating fence around Australia with arrows pointing to Nauru.

  16. nappin:

    They align on some things, but are way off track on others. Boats! and the stolen generations apology are good egs. Most of my friends and family are appalled at the coalition hysteria on AS, whereas some of my family cheer loudly. Conversely, sections of my family were appalled at the apology, whereas most of my friends and family cheered loudly.

  19. Blue green @40,

    Just the same as assuming a BBQ of 10 friends and relations gives a broad cross section of views of what the majority of people are thinking ?

    If focus groups are to be dismissed so can a small group of like minded friends. Casn’t support one and dismiss the other.

    Regarding the Council for international development ( whoever they are ) if it all so easy why don’t they try it ?

  20. [Just the same as assuming a BBQ of 10 friends and relations gives a broad cross section of views of what the majority of people are thinking ?

    If focus groups are to be dismissed so can a small group of like minded friends. Casn’t support one and dismiss the other.]

    I think it silly for govt to propose policy based on focus group results.

    I think it fine for people to put forward anecdotal evidence on a blog, the same as they would in conversation. People can take it or leave it as they like; there are no consequences.

  21. [Apparently you can only report opinion here if you have a poll with a MOE of about +/- 3%.

    That is unless you are the ALP right where you can base an election campaign on a focus group of ten people from Penrith.]
    Sorry b_g but when I read BS I have to call it and this is BS.

  22. [Sorry b_g but when I read BS I have to call it and this is BS.]

    I said I was working on my hyperbole. 🙂

  23. [They align on some things, but are way off track on others.]
    So then it comes down to informed decisions, and how we get that information. Bludger’s have a tendency to think a little left of the fence (not all, I know), and that colours the discussion here. At home, we have to put up with Logie Karl asking mind-numbing D Dixers as a major source of info.

  24. [70

    bluegreen

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

    Just the same as assuming a BBQ of 10 friends and relations gives a broad cross section of views of what the majority of people are thinking ?

    If focus groups are to be dismissed so can a small group of like minded friends. Casn’t support one and dismiss the other.

    I think it silly for govt to propose policy based on focus group results.

    I think it fine for people to put forward anecdotal evidence on a blog, the same as they would in conversation. People can take it or leave it as they like; there are no consequences.
    ]

    So MP’s sending out electorate surveys are bad using your logic ?

  25. Frank @ 61

    As I said previously, it all comes down to discernment. The 2GB audience would not be a reliable source of broad public opinion .. and as others have said … neither is the PollBludger blog.

  26. [GetUp!? BIG NEWS: Guess who’s going surfing with Tony Abbott tomorrow? We’ll be live tweeting the event from Sydney’s northern beaches from about 1030a tomorrow. … – More »]

  27. Focus group research has been much maligned by political parties IMO. The point of FGs isn’t to just conduct one or two or three, or even five and declare you have results, but to keep sampling until your findings show ‘saturation’. This can take as little as three or five FG samples, or as many as 30+ depending on the setting and/or the research questions.

  28. [blackburnpseph

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

    Frank @ 61

    As I said previously, it all comes down to discernment. The 2GB audience would not be a reliable source of broad public opinion .. and as others have said … neither is the PollBludger blog.
    ]

    Yet Liberal policy and talking points is entirely aimed at that audience.

  29. bluegreen

    [I think it fine for people to put forward anecdotal evidence on a blog, the same as they would in conversation. People can take it or leave it as they like; there are no consequences.]

    That’s called civilised discussion! Who could not support that cocept?

    Gary

    [Sorry b_g but when I read BS I have to call it and this is BS.]

    Thank God we have a cop on the beat in you Gary! Never know what we all might say otherwise.

  30. [So MP’s sending out electorate surveys are bad using your logic ?]

    MPs ask for input in those silly surveys to make it look like they are listening to their constituents.

  32. Well Gary I have used it a few times to predict election outcomes and it has always worked. However it needs to be people who are not “involved” actively in politics, so Labor party gfriends or the green kids over the road probably are not ideal. But comments in the work tea room or from people in the bus or from not politically active relatives are very important, as they reflect a general trend.

    Moreover most ordinary people only VOICE an opinion when they are pretty sure they will not be howled down by the rest. Few people (poll tragics like PBs excepted) like to stand out from the crowd. So if cousin Joe’s wife if saying something at the BBQ you can be fairly sure that Joe and at least one other person there agrees with most of what she is saying, even if they are too wary of actually saying anything. Unless of course if Cousin Joe’s wife is abused by the rest in which case Joe will come to her aid or there will be the beginnings of a major domestic dispute.

  33. [80

    bluegreen

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    So MP’s sending out electorate surveys are bad using your logic ?

    MPs ask for input in those silly surveys to make it look like they are listening to their constituents.
    ]

    Just like listeing to a so called group of family and Friends and declaring their opinons as Gospel.

  36. [Well Gary I have used it a few times to predict election outcomes and it has always worked.]
    So you’ve based your opinion only on what those around you have said? No opinion polls?

  37. [Just like listeing to a so called group of family and Friends and declaring their opinons as Gospel.]

    When you hear someones opinion, it is usually their Gospel opinion at the time- unless they are lying to you. What we are discussing is whether the opinions of a few friends is enough to indicate whether it is representative of broader community views.

  38. daretotread

    [Moreover most ordinary people only VOICE an opinion when they are pretty sure they will not be howled down by the rest.]

    Very wise words indeed!

  39. Shifty Phil

    That means that you have to watch Andrew Bolt so that you can see who advertises. Isn’t that self defeating?

  40. William, two questions.

    1st. Can you give me a comparison please as to how long Howard had bad opinion polls in regards to GST against how long Gillard has had against CT?

    2nd. Forgive me for being rude. Just curious when do you get your doctorate?

  41. [Well Gary I have used it a few times to predict election outcomes and it has always worked. However it needs to be people who are not “involved” actively in politics, so Labor party gfriends or the green kids over the road probably are not ideal. But comments in the work tea room or from people in the bus or from not politically active relatives are very important, as they reflect a general trend.]
    Still not convinced.

  42. [Moreover most ordinary people only VOICE an opinion when they are pretty sure they will not be howled down by the rest.]
    It’s good that it doesn’t happen here.

  43. [Moreover most ordinary people only VOICE an opinion when they are pretty sure they will not be howled down by the rest.]
    Aghhh! That’s what I’m doing wRONg.

  45. blackburnpseph@89

    Shifty Phil

    That means that you have to watch Andrew Bolt so that you can see who advertises. Isn’t that self defeating?

    Turn the sound off, or record and fast forward through the ‘content’, or just wait for the list to be posted.

    I would never suggest that anyone should actually watch the show.

  46. nappin:

    I’m trying to think of one major disagreement I have with friends/family, and the only one I can think of is on public ownership of stuff. I can only think of a few people I know who think it’s okay, whereas I’m fairly lackadaisical about it. This means that discussions about the NBN (coming to our area soon!!) always split around the ownership line, rather than the merits of the policy line.

  47. blue green @70,

    I have no problem with people commenting on what friends have said and are talking about. I think that is good and interesting feedback.

    However, to then project this narrow feedback as supporting a point of view as fact as some do here from time to time is pointless.

    It is the same as accepting a Morgan or Newspoll sample of 10 respondents as being reliable.

  49. daretotread

    So true. Whilst I am happy to discuss matters in general with people, I very rarely give away my voting intentions. For eg. This week I was with a group of women with children around the same age as mine. We spoke about our respective children who are currently doing apprenticeships. The discussion turned to the govt providing vouchers for tools as well as incremental payments when the apprentice completes a stage of the apprenticeship. Without question, everyone was pleased with this govt initiative. Does this mean everyone wil vote Labor, who knows? I believe most people vote with their own interests in mind.

  50. [-GetUp!? BIG NEWS: Guess who’s going surfing with Tony Abbott tomorrow? We’ll be live tweeting the event from Sydney’s northern beaches from about 1030a tomorrow. …]

    why do i think TA is getting desperate? can he hear the drums beating louder?

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