Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [I’ve just watched footage of mobs of people in America gathering and hooting and hollering like their football team just won the big game. I can’t believe that people can’t see how sick this is. And they honestly don’t even appreciate the possibility that anyone else might think it is.]

    OBL was partially responsible for plenty of Australians dying as well and I’m very pleased he is dead. I’m also very glad we don’t have scenes like that in Australia.

  2. [OMG…CNN have just announced Bin Ladens body has already been buried at sea…I kid you not. To quote Arthur Meldrew “I DON’T BELIEVE IT”]

    well, i demand to see the body, else it’s all Hollywood and Bollywood

  3. If you had a look at the scorecard in terms of costs and deaths, how would the Bush/Blair/Howard record compare to Obama?

    Bush/Blair/Howard; Cost $3 trillion, Deaths 1.5 million, Result – Saddam Hussein (not related to 9/11.

    Obama; Cost $?, Deaths ?, Result – Bin Laden.

  4. [jenauthor Have a great trip! :-)]

    Thanks OzPol … intend to … cruising down the Rhine and then on to Milan.

  5. You have to feel for Abbott-a-bad, royal wedding and now OBL takin’ all the oxygen out of his cunning pre-budget plan. 😆

  6. kiddo, as fess has observed:

    [The Brits get Wills and Kate
    The catholics get JPII beatified
    The US get Osama Bin Laden]

    it’s the son, the father and the holy shit

  7. A bit fishy.

    [OSAMA bin Laden’s body has been buried at sea, a US official says.

    The US decided to bury him at sea because it would have been difficult finding a country willing to accept the remains of the world’s most wanted terrorist, the official said.

    After bin Laden was killed in a raid by US forces in Pakistan, senior administration officials said the body would be handled according to Islamic practice and tradition.

    That practice calls for the body to be buried within 24 hours, the official said.

    The official did not immediately say where the body was buried at sea.]

  8. I was just listening to Obama’s speech vis a vis OBL.

    He said wtte “Americans can do anything they set their minds to.” I recall hearing that phrase recently.

    Didn’t an Australian say that to their congress a few weeks ago? ?

  9. There is a rumour that Osama was watching and transfixed by the #RoyalWedding. He didnt see the bullet coming his way

  10. [He said wtte “Americans can do anything they set their minds to.” I recall hearing that phrase recently.]

    puffy, i puke. it took them 10 years.

  11. So centre were do you get the figure of 1.5 million dead in iraq, didn’t wikileaks show that the official US figures were much closer to the mark then the figures bandied around by the left, and it was nothing like 1.5 million, but I guess wikileaks is only believable when it says what you want to here, also what about all the lives saved by getting rid of saddam, he was killing on average 100’000 a year so you can do your own maths on that. Prietty sure Obama has still being fighting in afganistan and iraq and also sending drones into Pakistan so I doubt the money spent on this, in his term of office is insignificant.

  12. As has the legendary snooker commentator “Whispering” Ted Lowe.

    Who famously said: “For those watching in black & white, the pink ball is the one behind the green.”

  13. Centre

    [DNA tests confirmed Bin Laden is dead.

    It would be easier to fake the moon landing than pull that off.]

    No way. All you have to do is draw some bars at the right lengths. Easiest thing in the world.

  14. [“Americans can do anything they set their minds to.” ]

    I look forward to controlled nuclear fusion and a cure for cancer in the near future.

  15. Yeah andrew36 exactly where you got your figures from that Hussein was killing 100,000 a year. That’s where I got my figures from!

    If you are a supporter of Bush/Howard, you’d have nothing to be proud of I would say!

  16. Diogs, do you think something like that could be kept a secret.

    Proof – witnessed, confirmed, signed, sealed and delivered 😉

  17. I look forward to controlled nuclear fusion and a cure for cancer in the near future.

    She didn’t say that they could do two things at once. Or in a timely fashion…

  18. Of course nothing would ever please Fox News more if Obama rigged the killing of Bin Laden.

    If Fox News accused Obama of rigging the killing of Bin Laden (not like which country you were born ?) they would need real serious evidence otherwise Mr Murdoch applies for Australian citizenship again 😉

  19. [Remind me how long the “Great Leap Forward” took.]

    GG, Still happening. China is predicted to overtake USA in 10 years time. It started in 1949, that’s how long. The Chinese have saying “we live in a very interesting time”.

  20. Bluegreen 4431 . Dead right there. Even the Americans admitted earlier this year there were a little as 50 Taliban in Afghanistan. So with them being out of that game their use to Pakistan would be pretty much over. A number of Taliban (read Pashtun) tribal leaders have expressed being very pissed off with Al Qaeda tactics which cared nothing for the number of locals killed.
    Osama buried at sea,no body ? Cue conspiracy theories ! Especially as a number of Al Qaeda leaders had been declared as having been were killed up to 6 times before they actually died. I would not be surprised if he is currently actually alive and after “enhanced” interrogation will end up buried at sea.

  21. [I look forward to controlled nuclear fusion and a cure for cancer in the near future.]

    diog, are you trying to be funny?

  22. [A bit fishy.

    OSAMA bin Laden’s body has been buried at sea, a US official says.

    The US decided to bury him at sea because it would have been difficult finding a country willing to accept the remains of the world’s most wanted terrorist, the official said.]

    Diog, very fishy. It doesnt even smell like my favourite the Red Herrings. Let me see if i can find Osama across the Grassy Knoll.

  23. Two Pakistan TV stations have shown footage of Osama’s head which was quite bloodied. Evidently he was shot in the head.

  24. The reason the media asked John Howard to comment was because he was Prime Minister when Australia joined the invasion of Afghanistan and the hunt for Bin Laden. He was also good friends with George W Bush who tried and failed to catch Bin Laden. He had also made unwise remarks about Al Qaeda being happy about Obama becoming President.

    There is no conspiracy there. Good grief. You all really need to try and stop seeing everything that happens through your little partisan prisms.

  25. I’d like to find out who asked JWH about his earlier comment. Would someone tweet Latika? It may well have been her: she’s about the only one with enough spunk to do it.

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