Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Newspoll? Who cares. Osama is dead. Wills and Kate are wed. That’s all that matters.

    Imagine had they run their poll back in competition with Fairfax.

  2. [It’s the trends. Don’t excite yourselves.]

    Actually — I reckon it is the run-up to the change of senate. Remember the quote “2011, the year of achievement”

    Gillard & ALP just has to keep making hard decisions and roll out the good news as it comes.

  3. [Simon Crean – now there’s a guy who went for the leadership too early]

    There is an abundance of talent in the Labor Party and sadly (said genuinely) ZERO in the Liberal Party.

    Maybe the Liberals should take out the cheque book and sign Lindsay Tanner?

  4. [adelaidegirl

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Frank, that’s terribly unfair

    What exactly ?

    That I said a home truth or two about the “Disability Industry” ?

  5. I foresee a different attitude in the global public with the death of Osama. Not massive, but definitely measurable.

  6. [Tom Hawkins

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Frank, that’s terribly unfair.

    What’s poor Frank being accused of now?

    cos I dared to agree with the head of Mission Australia.

    Apparently Us Cripples must maintain the status quo re Welfare.

  7. jen,

    Julia G did not get to PM because she is a softie: she has more nuts than most. Everything she has done so far has the signs of a terrier with its head on focus.

  8. dont forget the latest newspoll included the riots at Villawood Detention Centre & Xmas Island.

    If anything, these riots would have sunk Labor further, but it didnt, Labor went up by 2.

  9. 6 points

    mmm but they dont say where its come from compliments of that nelson poll

    and the one in the bottom draw.

  10. yes and they tried it on again all week end with abc doing old footage of old fires at christmas isl a new person to the country would of thought it just happpened

    ah but you can rely on the abc. cant you

  11. Centre,

    Simon seems happy where he is. Did you watch Q&A? There was a team player privileged to announce policy.

  12. vp,

    There is definitely money to be made in them thar hills once the NBN superhighway is laid out. The trick is to know what it is.

    The trick to building a good IT system is not the ask them what they want but to ask users what they want to know or do that they don’t know/can’t do now. I then learn their jobs as they stand and with what I know technology can deliver talk to them about their options.

    I find most systems are what techo’s, who always have their next job in mind, deliver the latest techno toy/technique without much application to the business itself.

  13. [Abbottabad?]

    Rabbott’s new name. Uhlmann has eaten all Rabbott’s carrots, therefore he is now named ‘Abbott a bad’.

    Has a nice ring as ‘bad’ seems to be one of the 3 or 4 words in Abbott a bad’s vocabulary.

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