Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [4783
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 10:12 pm | Permalink
    PS Our one home tv is stuck on the biggest loser final episode. Help me!

    Fear not – Biggest Loser is far more intelligent and meaningful than Qanda!

  2. Crean was the perfect Minister to send to Sophie’s Den. I get a sens the people in the audience were craving realness and answers. Their local member provides neither.

  3. vp,

    As an IT consultant, it might be worth my while to investigate what they need and go down and find the applications and serve it up to them!

  4. I disagree about Sophie’s looks. She does not need a lot of make-up. She has really good facial structure. She overdoes the makeup.

  5. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol #qanda
    46 seconds ago

  6. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @GhostWhoVotes The Narrowing has begun. must be the #royalwedding #auspol
    3 seconds ago

  7. Spave Kidette,

    I’d love to see your analysis. I used to audit IT systems. Biggest problem was that the analysts couldn’t get user needs right, for many reasons. The techos are usually competent: they do as they are told.

  8. [The Narrowing has begun]

    Now if that drop kick from the AWU would STFU things might improve even further

  9. Sophie’s wind up is nothing more than an ignorant plea. She gets laughed at, and wound up by the host.

  10. [53 47 seems a pretty reasonable read]

    Considering the issues that Labor has on the boil this is a reasonable first year result.

  11. The Australian

    TONY Abbott’s Australia-wide campaign against Julia Gillard’s carbon tax and immigration policies has helped keep the Coalition well in front of Labor.
    In the past month as the Opposition Leader has criss-crossed the nation and the Prime Minister travelled through north Asia and attended the royal wedding in London the Coalition has maintained its election-winning lead over the government.

    The latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, puts the Coalition’s two-party preferred support at 53 per cent, down two points, with Labor up two points to 47 per cent.

    Ms Gillard maintained her nine-point lead over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister 45 per cent to 36 per cent. But Mr Abbott’s personal approval rating has improved during his travels.


  12. well,

    #royalwedding +2 for Gillard

    #JP2 beautification will be another +2

    #Osama vapourisation will bring +3

    expect 52-48 in the next newspoll

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