Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. [“Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%]

    So this is where Hockey got today’s inspiration from, and in his usual style, tied it to food (The Joe Special).

  5. I still believe that this is about the success of the Coalition message re the government’s incompetence rather than the substance. This message has to be successfully countered and replaced with a more positive view of the government.

    I know I sound like a broken record, but it will not matter how successful the government is in implementing its programme, nor how important they are to the continued prosperity of this country. If the message does not change and soon there is absolutely no hope of winning the next election.

  6. These polls are doing my head in.
    So, the numbers are down for the Coalition in regards to doing anything to win government.
    Is this because they are not offering anything?

  8. SK

    Only way for govt to get message out. Start advertising. The msm is not going to help. I would argue that the msm are making it as hard as possible for govt, so they have to advertise. Therefore more revenue for them. Ultimately that is what the msm want. More revenue.

  10. [Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”]

    People have definitely bought the lies about elec prices being the fault of the Pollution Tax which doesn’t yet exist. For the two parties to be almost equal on “looking after the interests of working people” is definitely Tea Party Time.

  12. [Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.]

    So that means as many (more or less) people think the Libs will look after the interests of working people.

    Have they forgotten WorkChoices so soon, or did I wake up in a parallel universe?

    Dawkins help us all.

  15. [ If the message does not change and soon there is absolutely no hope of winning the next election.]
    What do you propose the ALP can do to circumvent MSM?
    It is clear that regardless of the message from the ALP it will not get coverage.

    Just quickly re-read the top of the page.
    [The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane]

  17. [Have they forgotten WorkChoices so soon, ]
    Dan, a mate told me once that there is one born every minute and they die every thousand years, so you will never catch up with the mongrels. And as my OH says, the evolutionary trail has not finished yet. 🙂

  18. “Quite right. The “five star” energy rating system is little more than a marketing exercise for builders. It is useless for predicting actual energy consumption of houses.”

    It is true that it “useless for predicting actual energy consumption of houses” because to do that would also mean predicting the appliances used and added into the house as well as the duration of their use.

    In other words high energy use slobs will not be saved by having a 5 star house. And despite what 7.30 suggested, in true tabloid style, you do not throw out a program that just needs improving.

    And frankly I am more than happy for builders to boast about the energy saving properties of their houses as opposed to doing nothing about the issue of building in passive energy saving systems.

  19. Dee,

    The problem with the media weenies in govt is that they are too formulaic. The follow their little set media plays using traditional media while the world outside the government offices is changing.

    Social media if by far more powerful, more immediate and undiluted by editors, opinionistas etc. The power of social media is in the networks. They need to tap into existing large networks and get their messages heard and retweeted.

  20. [so they have to advertise.

    Advertise what exactly?]
    Itep – do you consider that election advertising works (ie has an impact on how people vote/viewthe Govt)?

  23. [Social media if by far more powerful, more immediate and undiluted by editors, opinionistas etc. The power of social media is in the networks. They need to tap into existing large networks and get their messages heard and retweeted.]

    But don’t people only look at the social media that confirms their already held views? I would’ve thought the power of the ‘traditional’ media is that its seen by people who the political parties want to target (the softer, undecided voters who decide elections).

  24. Out of touch, divided, not a good team of leaders and extreme. How did it get this bad?

    Abbott will just hammer those points home.

    The Rudd thing ain’t helping.

  26. [Itep – do you consider that election advertising works (ie has an impact on how people vote/viewthe Govt)?]
    Let’s assume that it does, why do it now? To improve the polls?

  28. Dio,

    Lesson 1 out of Geobbels Guide to Tea Party Tactics. Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad; Repeat the message everthing is bad, bad, bad;

  29. [Out of touch, divided, not a good team of leaders and extreme. How did it get this bad?]
    Those figures for the Libs might be better but they are still not great.

  30. [Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”]

    Time to resurrect the phrase “working families”. 😀

  32. [do you consider that election advertising works (ie has an impact on how people vote/viewthe Govt)?]

    I’m not sure either way; there’s certainly cases where expensive taxpayer funded advertising campaigns have failed to shift public perceptions (in my opinion). The real question is the public benefit to be gained by the advertising. If it’s an advertising campaign to explain the rights or obligations of citizens that’d be fine, but if it’s just “We’ve done this”, it should really be something paid out of the party’s resources.

  33. Dee@6

    These polls are doing my head in.
    So, the numbers are down for the Coalition in regards to doing anything to win government.
    Is this because they are not offering anything?

    That’s correct. The One Liberal Nation policy makers have learnt one of the lessons that Tony Abbott has been demonstrating so effectively ever since his accidental ascendancy – i.e. that doing nothing loudly can get you better press coverage than doing something quietly.

    But they have yet to learn Tony’s other lesson – which is that while this may give you a boost in silly season polls, it will never win you government. I’m sure we all hope Tony will have the staying power to demonstrate this one to them a few more times.

  34. We have said for a long time that the PM should have shown the media truffles who is the boss.
    The Rabbott has done it. He has them bluffed.
    The PM shouldn’t be so accommodating. Pick your journos & cultivate an alliance of co-dependence.
    Immediately shunt those journos who clearly go out of their way to run their employers agenda.
    Shoulda, coulda, woulda…all probably too late.

  35. [Let’s assume that it does, why do it now? To improve the polls?]
    A Poll improvement would be a side benefit. IMHO, it’s easier to Govern when you have majority support, whether that be in the House or on the street. Surely you have a stronger bargaining position when Joe Public supports your side of the argument, and that is especially important when the numbers are so narrow.

  37. [The Rabbott has done it. He has them bluffed.
    The PM shouldn’t be so accommodating. Pick your journos & cultivate an alliance of co-dependence.
    Immediately shunt those journos who clearly go out of their way to run their employers agenda.
    Shoulda, coulda, woulda…all probably too late.]

    Yeah, but its far easier for Rabbott to have them bluffed because his politics are what the journalists’ bosses want.

  38. [A Poll improvement would be a side benefit. IMHO, it’s easier to Govern when you have majority support, whether that be in the House or on the street. Surely you have a stronger bargaining position when Joe Public supports your side of the argument, and that is especially important when the numbers are so narrow.]
    Spending money to increase public support outside of an election by years is to me a waste of time, money and effort. A government has to sometimes do what the public don’t necessarily favour. Hell, do you want a government to govern by opinion polling or not?

  39. This afternoon I watched the Press Club. Tom Quint (I think), a social researcher, was the speaker. The main subject was attitudes to health services in Aust and overseas.
    One of his points which I think is relevant here is that it often took more research/time to create the right questions than it did to do the final polls. One of his examples was the difference between phrases “the right to die with dignity” and “euthanasia” and the consequent results of the poll.

    The point today is: are the right questions being asked to tease out people’s attitudes to the political parties? Who is funding these polls?

  40. [For the two parties to be almost equal on “looking after the interests of working people” is definitely Tea Party Time.]

    When a senior union official (Paul Howes) takes a swipe at Labor for risking the jobs of working people you know things are out of control.

  41. Mmmm………
    [coalition – Too close to the big corporate and financial interests – 60%]
    On Gambling 68% says the industry needs more regulation.

  43. Guys, stop giving abbott so much credit
    Ju-lair did it all her self
    Lie about a carbon tax
    Lie that she lie about a carbox tax
    Lie that she ever lied about lying about a carbon tax (pretending that she was always up front about the broken promise)
    Lie about the jobs lost from the tax
    Lie that “big polluters” would pay for the tax and everyone would not
    Lie that China was more green than use!

  45. Tom H

    [When a senior union official (Paul Howes) takes a swipe at Labor for risking the jobs of working people you know things are out of control.]

    In SA, the unions are literally running a TV campaign against state Labor for ignoring working people. I gather something similar happened in Qld.

  48. [Hell, do you want a government to govern by opinion polling or not?]
    No, and I have not said that. Leadership is about bringing the team along with you, not riding over the top like TA. Sure, sometimes it’s hard work to convince people that a tax rise is good, but that’s what leadership is about.

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