Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. PC at 4499

    No you have defined it well. Bush and Howard failed in their capture of Bin Laden and Howards remarks whether Obama became president were unwise.

    I agree.

  2. [GG, Still happening. China is predicted to overtake USA in 10 years time.]
    Well, in terms of GDP sure, and so it should because it has 4 times the population.

    But in terms of GDP / capita, which gives a much better impression of living standards? On that metric I doubt China will pass the US this century.

  3. Breaking News: First pix of Osama

    [An image made from Express TV video shows the dead body of terror mastermind Osama bin Laden, as seen in Islamabad, Pakistan on Monday, May 2, 2011. — PHOTO: AP]

  4. Obi has a few things going for him:

    . he didn’t start the Iraq war and he is pulling out the US troops,
    . he didn’t start the war in Afghanistan and he is trying to pull out troops
    . he got Osama.

    Not bad for an “inexperienced’ (Kim Landers) president.

  5. I am glad Osama Bin Laden is no longer here. I find it a regret that he chose to use his life to bring suffering and grief to so many when he could have brought good into his world, and that those actions lead to him dying a violent death, unmourned by millions, his departure rejoiced by many.

    I feel sorrow for people like his mother, father or wives and children who will be in grief tonight, the same grief that tore at the hearts of loved ones of those for whose deaths he was responsible. I do not rejoice Osama Bin Laden’s death, nor the waste of a life which could have been used differently, but I am thankful the man is finally gone from this world.

  6. Diogs, you are the surgeon, how many bellet wounds and where? I’ll have a guess – one above and one below left eye.

    If you can’t stomach it, don’t look Bludgers.

  7. [But in terms of GDP / capita, which gives a much better impression of living standards? On that metric I doubt China will pass the US this century.]

    So Showy, you are perfectly happy with the system that allows 5% of the world population to consume 25% of the world’s resources. good for you.

  8. ShowsOn 4507
    Re ” On that metric I doubt China will pass the US this century”. Not unless the Americans move downhill to meet them. Which given many of the economic metrics of the US of A is not far fetched. Even for the US the pissing up against the wall of a lazy $4,000,000,000,000 in the Afghan and Iraqi wars may prove a pill too big to swallow. Let alone their umpteen trillion dollar debt.

  9. Burial at sea:
    [Islam
    The sacred texts of Islam prefer burial on land, so deep that its smell does not come out and the beasts of prey do not dig it out. However, if a person dies at sea and it is not possible to bring the body back to land before decay, burial at sea is allowed. A weight is tied to the feet of the body, and the body is lowered into the water. This would preferably occur in an area where the remains are not immediately eaten by scavengers. Also, if an enemy may dig up the grave to mutilate the body, it is also allowed to bury the deceased at sea to avoid mutilation.]
    Wiki

  10. [. he didn’t start the war in Afghanistan and he is trying to pull out troops]
    Well, he added another 30,000 troops to Afghanistan remember.

  11. [Re ” On that metric I doubt China will pass the US this century”. Not unless the Americans move downhill to meet them. Which given many of the economic metrics of the US of A is not far fetched.]
    Well I doubt it. My points was that US GDP per capita is about $40,000. Whereas in China it is about $4000. China is still GENERALLY a very poor country with the vast majority of Chinese living in what we would call abject poverty.

    Of course who knows if any of China’s economic figures are accurate.

  12. jenauthor

    [My guess is one through the right eye with an exit through the left skull.

    He had two skulls Dio?]

    He does now.

  13. [Greensborough Growler

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

    What is this? CSI Poll Bludger.
    ]

    Hmm Bilbo hasn’t been on for over 24 hours, Crikey crashes mere moments before the announcement of the biggest story of the Decade.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking B 1 ? 🙂

  14. ShowsOn 4525 . True and true re China. However the hollowing out of US industry and the difference between mean and median incomes in America are a worry. The disparity between the material wealth of the top couple of percent and “the rest’ makes social unrest a real possibility. Interesting times. Whatever the case Australia should keep their fingers crossed for continued growth in China. Else Australia will be cactus.

  15. [gordongrahamgordongraham

    #Newspoll will probably be overshadowed by today’s events. Poor old Dennis Shanahan … probably a status quo result anyway #auspol

    2 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  16. politicaltragic
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 5:27 pm

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/04/27/essential-research-54-46-to-coalition-2/comment-page-89/#comment-848531

    [Yikes……..their ABC are putting on every Liberal they can find to take credit for Bin Laden’s death.]

    To avoid having the bin Laden story filtered through what

    “The Federal Opposition says…”

    I recommend BBC World Service. Listen online: http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/meta/tx/nb/live_infent_au_nb.asx

  17. Frank, I’ve obviously missed some discourse on this subject. Don’t really know what you’re on about but I work in the area so feel I have a little bit of an idea.

  18. [jenauthor
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 6:10 pm | Permalink
    jenauthor Have a great trip!

    Thanks OzPol … intend to … cruising down the Rhine and then on to Milan]
    jen if you still there is that the curise boats the small ones.

    we booked that trip then the gfc and we cancelled.

  19. Somehow I don’t think that China’s elite is any less keen on extreme concentration of wealth than America’s elite.

  20. [So Showy, you are perfectly happy with the system that allows 5% of the world population to consume 25% of the world’s resources. good for you.]
    I never wrote such a thing.

  21. [adelaidegirl

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

    Frank, I’ve obviously missed some discourse on this subject. Don’t really know what you’re on about but I work in the area so feel I have a little bit of an idea.
    ]

    You work.

    I have a disabilty. In other words you have a vested interest in the status quo.

    Figures.

  22. [jen if you still there is that the curise boats the small ones.

    we booked that trip then the gfc and we cancelled.]

    Going in a couple of weeks MySay. It is a 99 cabin river cruiser.

  23. [and hollering like their football team just won the big game. I can’t believe that people can’t see how sick this is. And they honestly don’t even appreciate the possibility that anyone else might think it is.

    hey pubic, i agree with you totally.]

    gees i agree too, how that be we agree,

    how insensitive dont they realise they could fire up emotions of the people in other countries.

    but i did notice they where very young no oldies amongst them that i could see.
    they need to be advised this is not a good thing to do.

  24. Breaking News:

    The Federal Opposition says the killing of Osama must be credited to its leader Mr. Tony Abbott. Mr. Abbott has provided the clue to the US Authorities where Osama Bin Laden was hiding: Abbottabad.

  25. The chants of American crowds keep reminding me of certain crowds in central Europe in the 1930s and 1940s.

  26. o oh says we should never have cancelled but at the time with super tumbling and we also worried things may go pear shape in europe.
    some of our friends have dont it say its wonderful
    where going to go from Budapest to amsterdam.

    our children tell us to still go you cannot take it with you, but its matter of thinking one has to top up ones pension, becauce you dont know how long you will be around,

    oh retires in aug, so we are thinking we should do something. if only we could find a dog sitter as well,

    Enjoy your self are you and oh going , memories are wonderful, we did europe back packed in 2005 and alaska 2007 and have been to nz a few times and stayed in vancouver.

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