Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  6. Congratulations to President Obama.

    Absolutley fantastic news.

    Absolutely fantastic work.

    Obama fans and Democrats can now turn to their incompetent counterparts – the Republicans and say;

    “That’s not how to do it, THAT’S HOW TO DO IT”.

  7. I reckon the buried at sea is a beat up. The official line is that “they have the body in custody”. Not had.

  8. Methinks Obama just won himself a 2nd term in office – I bet Fox News and the Tea Party idiots aren’t happy campers tonight. 😀

  9. I’ve just watched footage of mobs of people in America gathering and hooting and hollering like their football team just won the big game. I can’t believe that people can’t see how sick this is. And they honestly don’t even appreciate the possibility that anyone else might think it is.

    And they probably all call themselves Christians too. And “pro-life” ones at that. No wonder I gave up on society a long time ago.

  11. Yikes……..their ABC are putting on every Liberal they can find to take credit for Bin Laden’s death.

  12. [I’m assuming it’s due to islamic religion that this is the case.]

    Frank yes that is what CNN are saying.

  13. [I’ve just watched footage of mobs of people in America gathering and hooting and hollering like their football team just won the big game. I can’t believe that people can’t see how sick this is. And they honestly don’t even appreciate the possibility that anyone else might think it is.]

    Downer says we’re entitled to be excited by the news. Anyone that is excited/turned on/whatever by the death of a fellow person is scum.

  14. Bluegreen .
    I reckon the ISI knew and let slip to the Americans. Their baby is the Taliban and from what that guy Shahzad has been saying I would not be at all surprised if they sacrificed Osama to try and get the yanks off their backs and out of their back yard. The ISI seems to have been a pretty competent lot and pretty much a force unto their own in Pakistan. In the game they are playing Osama was only important if he could effect outcomes in Afghanistan.
    Here is his article from March “Bin Laden sets alarm bells ringing”
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MC25Df01.html
    Here is a good bit of current Afghan background as we enter the “Fighting Season”. When you read a few of his articles you soon realise just how complicated things are in Afghanistan and Pakistan. There are so many players and shifting allianaces. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MA20Df02.html

  16. [Adam

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    I’ve just watched footage of mobs of people in America gathering and hooting and hollering like their football team just won the big game. I can’t believe that people can’t see how sick this is. And they honestly don’t even appreciate the possibility that anyone else might think it is.

    Downer says we’re entitled to be excited by the news. Anyone that is excited/turned on/whatever by the death of a fellow person is scum.
    ]

    so people were Scum on VE Day in 1945 ?

  17. Daretotread are you there?

    Last night you responded to one of my posts, and I concede that I did make a mistake.

    In my post that you referred to, I made the comment that it was one down (Goddafi’s son) and one to go.

    Yes I was WronG, it should have been “two down and one to go” 😉

    As you obviously need to be told, the emoticon used is a wink, not a giggle!

  18. Can you imagine the media attention waiting for the “operative” that actually pulled the trigger on bin Laden?

    Hard to imagine that their identity won’t get out- even if the person in question doesn’t want it to (which, in America, isn’t all that likely)…

  19. [I was one of those that subscribed to the theory that they never really actually wanted to capture/kill Osama.]

    How wrong you were.

  20. bluegreen

    Yes, I understand the lack of funds. But the growth of terrorist cells has taken on a life of its own, IMO.

  25. [Yikes……..their ABC are putting on every Liberal they can find to take credit for Bin Laden’s death.]

    What a shock that is

  30. DNA tests have confirmed that “they got him” Bin Liden dead.

    All credit to Obama, with his killing resulting in as little death as possible.

    That’s the difference between a good President and that clown Dubya 😉

  31. Poroti

    I doubt that Al qaeda would ever be able to drift into the mainstream. It would mean muscling out locally based tribal power balances. They do well becuase they harbour and collect the extreme elements who are willing to do extreme things for their cause.

    I suspect that one such tribal group may have sold Osama out.

  32. [I’m assuming it’s due to islamic religion that this is the case.]

    Of course. Oswald was given a Christian burial so why not an Islamic burial for this murdering bastard. Good to see that they (the US) haven’t provided a burial place for others to congregate and mourn. Dump him at sea and wash your hands of him.

  33. [bluegreen
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    Madcyril

    Those questions Bolter raised need to be asked. Its an upmarket uni town. It has the main army training centre for Pakistan.

    Check out its tourism website.]

    ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence secret police has long been regarded as being friendly to the Taliban, even of sponsoring them. The Taliban uprising in Afghanistan is one of the few external “successes” the military can boast of, and hence they have been reluctant to drop them.

    Al Qaida probably goes hand-in-hand with that. Current rule in Pakistan is in civilian hands. This operation might not have been possible with a military government still in charge.
    [This is either the biggest Pakistani success or a dismal catastrophic failure.]

    I think they’ll try and claim the former, but it’s still a tricky situation locally, with the military having spent years fermenting some of the fundies there.

  34. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 5:32 pm | Permalink
    bluegreen

    Yes, I understand the lack of funds. But the growth of terrorist cells has taken on a life of its own, IMO
    ]

    Its one thing to get together a ragtag bunch of guys willing to blow themselves up. Its another thing altogether to get something to happen against a hard target (like a plane or a govt building in a western country). It takes money, specialisit training, time to embed people etc etc. Or altenratively it means training or bringing in already trained westerners to do damage in western countries.

  35. [I can imagine the black comedians now: “It took a black man to clean up the mess that a white man couldn’t”.

    Everyone who attacks him will now have to say “yeah he killed Osama but….”]

    I am very pleased … this hoodwinking of the low income earners and disadvantaged by the right-wing commentariat won’t hold so much weight. Can only be a good thing.

    Obama and Gillard have had the same issues — a right wing constant attack over delivery.

    Obama has delivered on something bigtime. Julia just needs to deliver the carbon price and she’ll be in the same position.

    Big ticket items can give big ticket results. Sometimes I lament the fact that only self-funded retirees were victims of the GFC. Had the bulk of people seen the real impact — they might now have a lot more respect for his govt for the amazing thing they did in avoiding the fallout.

  36. This seems to confirm the location of the compound.

    [ABBOTTABAD: Three loud blasts were heard near the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) Kakul Road late Sunday night and a military helicopter also crashed. Sources told Geo News that heavy firing was heard in the area before the chopper crashed.

    Windowpanes of the nearby buildings and houses were smashed due to the intensity of the blasts, the sources said. Eyewitnesses said first sound of heavy firing was heard and then there was a huge blast. Fire erupted at the scene of the occurrence and according to latest reports police and fire brigade teams were rushing towards the blast scene. Security forces cordoned off the entire area and military helicopters were also hovering over the area.]

    http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=5697&Cat=13&dt=5/2/2011

  37. Good to see that they (the US) haven’t provided a burial place for others to congregate and mourn.

    Sort of.

    There’s no gravestone, but the entire ocean is the grave of everyone buried at sea.

    You can visit their grave by visiting the nearest shoreline.

  38. [It takes money, specialisit training, time to embed people etc etc. …]

    It also takes some dumb ass people to provide repeated lessons on how to maneuver an aircraft in flight but not require lessons on take off and landing.

    There are thousands of reasons for why 9/11 was successful and hopefully hundreds of those reasons are now dead ends for would be terrorists.

  39. Re Osama Bin Laden and the Iraq War
    ________________________
    Nobody has yet noted in the media that the events of 9/11 gave Blair and Bush
    the excuse to attack Saddam.
    Left in place Saddam might now be under siege from the Arabs who want democracy..not religious fundamentalism,which like all religious zealotry turns into a kind of fascism,whether it’s Al Queida or Opus Dei or Scientology.

    …and the USD then spent 2 Trillion dollars on the Iraq war according to Prof Steiglitz,the Nobel Prize winning Economist.

    So in the Iraq war Bush and Blair gave Osama his greatest victory by helping to bankrupt the USA in the Iraq War..some achievment !!
    with some help from Bush…who like Blair.. is still at large I think

  40. [You can visit their grave by visiting the nearest shoreline.]

    Blimey, they should have put the body in a rocket headed for the moon.

  41. [Adam
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Can anyone explain to me why Howard held a press conference? Surely Gillard’s was enough?]

    To Howard and many of his supporters (eg, talkback radio) he still is the legitimate leader of Australia, taken out only by an aberration.

  42. Bluegreen.
    That guy Lieutenant General (retired) Hamid Gul is one of Shahzad’s regular contacts. Although, as Shahzad pointed out long ago the General is only officially “retired” and whatever he tells him would have a nod of approval from the ISI. They may not have harboured him but I reckon there is a good chance they knew where he was. As long as he was no danger to them he was a handy ace to have up the sleeve. For the ISI the main game is Afghanistan. Then again Osama being where he was might be just Osama being clever,hiding under their noses he was where you’d least expect or look.

  43. No further proof is needed to determine the extent of media bias and the way the media protects their own.

    John Howard claimed that a vote for Obama was a vote for terrorists.

    Especially given todays events, there has never been a more ridiculous statement ever made in our foreign affairs history.

    Can you imagine if it was said by a Labor PM or Labor minister? The media would have had that person resigned – and you all here know it!

  44. [Blimey, they should have put the body in a rocket headed for the moon.]

    But then we’d have supporters gate crashing moon dances in Mullumbimby to worship their spiritual leader.

  47. [ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
    Found on Facebook:
    ]

    I wonder whether the headlines tomorrow will be “YES WE CAN”?

    The celebrations in the streets of the West Bank when Israelis were killed in an attack / when the Pan Am bomber returned to Libya, always used to horrify me. I can’t help but imagine some will be equally horrified about the celebrations at OBL’s death.

    A time for sad reflection rather than euphoria. POTUS got the tone right and his re-election is probably gauranteed now.

  48. publius

    [I’ve just watched footage of mobs of people in America gathering and hooting and hollering like their football team just won the big game. I can’t believe that people can’t see how sick this is. And they honestly don’t even appreciate the possibility that anyone else might think it is.]

    I have the same sick feeling about that too! Playing it cool doesn’t seem to be in their nature. Just hope that this kind of behaviour doesn’t incite others to violence!

  49. [’ve just watched footage of mobs of people in America gathering and hooting and hollering like their football team just won the big game. I can’t believe that people can’t see how sick this is. And they honestly don’t even appreciate the possibility that anyone else might think it is.]

    hey pubic, i agree with you totally.

  50. I would think Mr Habib would want to shutup and keep his head down at this time

    Yes – He would be far better to just STFU.

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