This week’s Morgan face-to-face survey carries a shocking headline figure for Labor of 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition. However, it’s less than bad for them using the industry standard measure where preferences are allocated according to the results of the previous election, rather than as indicated by respondents, which has it at 53.5-46.5. This slightly edges the 53-47 result of March 26-27 as Labor’s worst performance since the election. The driver is a big hike in the Coalition primary vote from 43.5 per cent to 48 per cent, with Labor down a point to 36.5 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
On the subject of preference allocation, it should be noted that Labor’s preference share on the Morgan respondent-allocation measure has been fairly steadily declining since the election, as shown in the chart below (which smooths things out by using a three-week rolling average). The upshot of this is that the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure might be flattering Labor a little.
In other news, today has seen the release of the full data from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and a plethora of other information. I’m currently mining this for findings of interest and will add them to this post in due course.
[it’s less than bad for them ]
True….but its very very bad for ALP nonetheles! It appears the burden on “working families” is not well received in voterville.
I read this as meaning the Coalition TPP is >>55% right now given Newspoll and Morgan (adjusted +3% to 4%)
[147
Frank Calabrese
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:39 pm | Permalink
Stuff the St Kevvies and Liberal trolls who do not want to see Gillard Labor succeed!
That comment was meant to be funny right?
no, it;’s an aaccurate statement.
The phrase “With Friends Like These, Who needs Enemies” comes to mind.
]
Frank we can walk and chew gum at once, you can support not just julia or
Rudd but you can support the whole caucus. And if you really love the party you’ll call foul when they stuff up and you’ll resist a whole load of
Vacuous rubbish from the oo and greg hunt rather than embrace it.
[Doyley
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
fredn,
non labor voters prefer Kev.
Go Julia as PM , go Kev as FM.
Danny Lewis,
most critisicm of labor revolves around Kev v Julia, how Kev would have won “if” he had stayed, labor is moving to the right or this labor government has made my life worse off. I have asked more than one bludger who has gone on about this to provide a list of how this government has made their life worse off since 2007 and I am yet to receive a reply. etc. Same old cut and paste every time, Ground hog day 2 here we come.
By the way I have a life long dislike for the liberal party and since Abbott has become leader a dislike for anyone who votes liberal.
Sorry to others out there but that is the way I feel.
]
You have summed it up perfectly.
And as an aded note the ALP vote in WA post Rudd has actually improved.
[By the way I have a life long dislike for the liberal party and since Abbott has become leader a dislike for anyone who votes liberal.]
I appreciate the apology at the end of this post which suggests a little voice in the back of your head saying this may not be a sensible position.
So you dislike the millions of voters who (correctly) decided Mark Latham wasn’t good for the country?
What about the NSW electorate who decided NSW ALP didn’t deserve another go?
(not to mention the conga line of ALP former leaders / premiers / ministers who have joined in the criticism of the NSW party since their defeat)
[Frank Calabrese
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:49 pm | Permalink
But mark me down down for not interested in mindless adoration.
Nor me!
Well in my book the constant holding up of Kevin Rudd is exactly what those whing about it are doing.]
Um I’m pretty sure Kevin is one of us and the real enemy is the oo and those who clearly lack the ability to comprehend soap opera as an alternative embrace the stupid oo line.
[WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:54 pm | Permalink
Frank Calabrese
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:49 pm | Permalink
But mark me down down for not interested in mindless adoration.
Nor me!
Well in my book the constant holding up of Kevin Rudd is exactly what those whing about it are doing.
Um I’m pretty sure Kevin is one of us and the real enemy is the oo and those who clearly lack the ability to comprehend soap opera as an alternative embrace the stupid oo line.
]
Kev is only intertested in Kev.
Frank
Do you go to ALP meetings?
[ruawake
Am I a lib Hack now?]
No you are a self confessed “Tory”. Nothing wrong with that.
[166
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:56 pm | Permalink
Frank
Do you go to ALP meetings?
]
Every one – even iif it is only me and the Brqnch Secretary are there – as has the last few meetings have been.
[Just between you, me and the gatepost, the above post was neither nice nor nessary, especially as it evoked others to do likewise. It doesn’t take a lot of effort to be tolerant or to keep your typing fingers away from the keyboard if frustration overwhelms you]
Excuse me? This is about the 4th or 5th time now she has accused me of being a Lib. It was absolutely necessary because I’m sick of telling her I’m a lefty. If she doesn’t understand that being a left-wing person by definition means I’m not a Lib isn’t my problem.
No one doubts she’s a devoted one-eyed Labor supporter, good luck to her but this isn’t an official Labor forum. I have just as much right as her or anyone else on here to express my opinion.
I don’t think I should bother frank but I think you mean post election. Or are you referring to the quarterly state breakdowns?
[Every one – even iif it is only me and the Brqnch Secretary are there – as has the last few meetings have been.]
So you go to meetings which don’t have a quorum? It follows then that nothing is discussed there at those meetings.
At the meetings where there is a quorum is their discussion of issues?
j6p – Thats what 95% plus of your posts always say, just slightly different words.
yawn
WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
I don’t think I should bother frank but I think you mean post election. Or are you referring to the quarterly state breakdowns?
]
Quarterly Breakdowns post election.
ruawake: that is a very interesting question.
I think there might be an aspect of state-influence in the way people are responding to the Federal ALP government. Obviously in those states where the ALP are more “on the nose”, attitudes to the Federal ALP seem to be more pessimistic, whereas those in which the ALP are travelling better (or have a useless Opposition/Government) tend to be moe positive.
Certainly SA isn’t a particularly instructive example because we have a state ALP government that isn’t travelling very well, but on the other hand, we have a PM who grew up in our state 😀 I suspect there is something similar going on in Victoria.
WA and Tasmania are harder to read, but it seems pretty obvious that the most pessimistic ALP followers on here are from NSW and QLD.
Incidentally, do we have anyone on here from NT?
[171
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
Every one – even iif it is only me and the Brqnch Secretary are there – as has the last few meetings have been.
So you go to meetings which don’t have a quorum? It follows then that nothing is discussed there at those meetings.
At the meetings where there is a quorum is their discussion of issues?
]
While there are not formal meeting issues can still be discussed.
[dave
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
if you labor hacks don,t wake up to the facts that labor needs changing and some bloody good pr soon you will be in opposition after the next election
j6p – Thats what 95% plus of your posts always say, just slightly different words.
yawn
]
do you expect anything less.
[If Rudd is ever leader again their job will be on the line. That is why he will never be leader again.
The sad truth for Labor, the public prefers Rudd to caucus.]
Sorry but that is silly. If anyone pays attention to QT and parliament in general — the coalition decided to ‘promote’ Kevin as soon as it looked like it would cause an impression of disarray. The msm (as usual) bought it and ran with it. Thus, the only thing the regular punters get are “Rudd doing good some good” but Labor is “baaaddd”.
It started immediately after Rudd was deposed (yes deposed…not knifed, not assasinated but DEPOSED as leader). Internal friction …YAY (says the conservatives as it took the limelight off their internal ructions).
Everytime there starts to appear a bit of discontent in the coalition ranks (or they stick their feet in it by saying 15 different things at once) Rudd/Gillard animosity becomes the BIG news.
If it wasn’t so transparent and destructive it would be a giggle. And what makes it so destructive is that Labor supporters buy into it too! Just look at the past few days.
Doesn’t anyone see what they’re doing? Divided we fall mentality is alive and well, and everyone keeps falling for it.
It isn’t that people should be ‘blind’ to Labor’s faults … but why are people so ‘blind’ to the manoeuvrings if the conservatives and their friends in the msm?
[While there are not formal meeting issues can still be discussed]
As a former branch secretary of twenty years I am sure that nothing talked about between yourself and the branch secretary mean nothing other than friendly conversation.
At the formal meetings though do people actually debate motions?
[ is only intertested in Kev.]
So attacking labor with the libs is good so long as it is labor people you don’t like. Way to go with logic and consistency comrade – reminds me of an old lefty in the early 90’s cursing keating (who had just restructured the economy for twenty glorious years o growth and wealth) as an evil liberal pretender. I was shocked and asked a very frank question ‘would you prefer Howard?’ and he gave a clear unequivocal yes without pause for thought. He got more than a decade of what he wanted – how did that decade go for Lefties?
[jenauthor
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
If Rudd is ever leader again their job will be on the line. That is why he will never be leader again.
The sad truth for Labor, the public prefers Rudd to caucus.
Sorry but that is silly. If anyone pays attention to QT and parliament in general — the coalition decided to ‘promote’ Kevin as soon as it looked like it would cause an impression of disarray. The msm (as usual) bought it and ran with it. Thus, the only thing the regular punters get are “Rudd doing good some good” but Labor is “baaaddd”.
It started immediately after Rudd was deposed (yes deposed…not knifed, not assasinated but DEPOSED as leader). Internal friction …YAY (says the conservatives as it took the limelight off their internal ructions).
Everytime there starts to appear a bit of discontent in the coalition ranks (or they stick their feet in it by saying 15 different things at once) Rudd/Gillard animosity becomes the BIG news.
If it wasn’t so transparent and destructive it would be a giggle. And what makes it so destructive is that Labor supporters buy into it too! Just look at the past few days.
Doesn’t anyone see what they’re doing? Divided we fall mentality is alive and well, and everyone keeps falling for it.
It isn’t that people should be ‘blind’ to Labor’s faults … but why are people so ‘blind’ to the manoeuvrings if the conservatives and their friends in the msm?
]
In other words the Detracters here are being played like a Violin by bnoth the Fibs and their mates in the MSM.
[I’m a lefty]
What does that mean? What is a “lefty”? Does that mean you use your left hand, does it mean you are a socialist, communist or just left on social issues. Or maybe left on economic issues.
It makes no sense, it means as much as me stating I have a beard.
[169
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:04 pm | Permalink
While there are not formal meeting issues can still be discussed
As a former branch secretary of twenty years I am sure that nothing talked about between yourself and the branch secretary mean nothing other than friendly conversation.
At the formal meetings though do people actually debate motions?
]
Yes.
Mod Lib,
what apology are you on about ?
I make no apology for my position.
The liberal party has always left a sour taste in my mouth but even under Howard there were a lot of small l liberals with character. Howard moved the party more to the right but these small l’s at least tried to keep some dignity and compassion. I did not like the party but still had respect for the small l’s and appreciated those who voted for the principles championed by these small l members. Even under Nelson and Turnbull the small l member still survived and had input. Still didn’t like the party but had respect for some of what it stood for.
Since Abbott the party is nothing more than a right wing collection of bigots and fear merchants with no decent bone in its body. I hate the liberal party and those who still vote it and what it stands for I have no regard at all.
Really?
Frank
[Yes]
Then why can you not tolerate the debating of issues here?
[176
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:08 pm | Permalink
Frank
Yes
Then why can you not tolerate the debating of issues here?
]
What bullshit.
Sprung Frank!
[What bullshit.]
That is no answer!
[Sorry to others out there but that is the way I feel.]
This apology.
Its up to you if you want to hate half your fellow Australians. The small l liberals you describe are still in the party other than Georgiou who retired at the last election.
You didn’t respond to whether you hated those voting out the NSW ALP. Do you hate Paul Keating who ridiculed the current NSW ALP leader? Or the former ALP premier? Or Kevin Rudd who described them as “thugsters”? Or those voting against Mark Latham becoming PM? I dont hate them, I thank them very very much.
[Bob Hawke said nothing about Paul Keating and still doesnt.]
mysay must be great to live in cloud cuckoo land
[Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:12 pm | Permalink
Sprung Frank!
What bullshit.
That is no answer!
]
It sums up your stupid question perfectly.
[Doyley
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
fredn,
…..
By the way I have a life long dislike for the liberal party and since Abbott has become leader a dislike for anyone who votes liberal.]
Abbott is a blight on Australian Politics.
“will never embrace Labor’s delight at sharing the values of every day Australians, in our cities, suburbs, towns and bush, who day after day do the right thing, leading purposeful and dignified lives, driven by love of family and nation”
JG wasn’t talking about Abbott.
Sorry to others out there but that is the way I feel.
[Bob Hawke said nothing about Paul Keating and still doesnt.]
ROFL
[hairy nose
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:13 pm | Permalink
Bob Hawke said nothing about Paul Keating and still doesnt.
mysay must be great to live in cloud cuckoo land
]
I haven’t heard Hawke the ALP since 1993.
Keating on the other hand…
[Or those voting against Mark Latham becoming PM?]
I prefer the lunatic Latham to the Malevolent Howard.
hairy,
When did you ever hear MR hawke talk out of class may not have praised pk but the party alwasy comes first.
i dear here we go again.
you may as well call this sight the punch and judy show
[Bob Hawke said nothing about Paul Keating and still doesnt.]
my say get a copy of Labor in Power if you can and see what Hawke has to say about Keating!
Sorry but the coin just dropped in my mind. Frank and the Kevin is a stupid evil scum crowd think that somehow tearing down a cabinet minister will be good for Julia. That if you join oo and Greg hunt calling for his head that it might make him behave or even better go.
The real target and victim of the oo attacks this week (which I think have largely failed to resonate anywhere but here isn’t Kevin. It is the whole government.
Time for a YouTube frank – sing with me comrade:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jsQEwW4DVw
Hope that works
Now beer time
[my say
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:15 pm | Permalink
hairy,
When did you ever hear MR hawke talk out of class may not have praised pk but the party alwasy comes first.
i dear here we go again.
you may as well call this sight the punch and judy show
]
Exactly.
Hawke has been campaigning at EVERY State and Federal Election supporting Candidates and Leaders.
Keating has done the complete opposite.
fredn
Is it NSW Green party policy to ban contact with Israel or is it a media beat up?
[I haven’t heard Hawke the ALP since 1993.]
well you may not have been here last week when this opinion was expressed by many people.
[Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:16 pm | Permalink
Bob Hawke said nothing about Paul Keating and still doesnt.
my say get a copy of Labor in Power if you can and see what Hawke has to say about Keating!
]
Gees, a program produced in 1996 – IMMEDIATELY following the defeat of a Labor Govt ??
But have you heard Hawke trash Keating since then ?
*Crickets*
wwp,
i had just popped in to get jens link so i can put it on a few friend face book sights that let me use them
for this reason.
wwp whats your enderavours for the party to day except trolling.
[I prefer the lunatic Latham to the Malevolent Howard.]
…but do you hate those who didn’t vote for Mark Latham in 2004?
Doyley was talking about hating Liberal voters…
[my say
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:17 pm | Permalink
I haven’t heard Hawke the ALP since 1993.
well you may not have been here last week when this opinion was expressed by many people.
]
I meant Hawke attack Keating and the ALP since 1993.
WeWantPaul@57
“Rudd did not break cabinet confidentiality….”
He most certainly did ……and in some detail…damn him!!
[jenauthor
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
….
Sorry but that is silly. If anyone pays attention to QT and parliament in general — the coalition decided to ‘promote’ Kevin as soon as it looked like it would cause an impression of disarray. The msm (as usual) bought it and ran with it. Thus, the only thing the regular punters get are “Rudd doing good some good” but Labor is “baaaddd”.]
Have Labor defended Rudd’s legacy, no, he said he will and the Labor faithful here condemn him for it.
Rudd states the bleeding obvious on Q&A, the Labor faithful condemn him for it. I suspect it is the labor fathful that is being played like a violin.
[That is almost exactly the opposite of what he said. He said he listened to all views, including those who wanted it gone completely made a call and accepts now in hindsight it was a mistake.]
WWP – no-one cares what he actually said which was unexceptional and nothing new except taking full responsibility for dropping the ETS. They are out for blood – even mild mannered mysay has joined the lynch mob and Vic just seems to be getting angrier and angrier as the days go on. Nothing has changed since Monday but Rudd is now the scapegoat for disappointing poll results.
This whole episode displays for us all the power of the MSM to brainwash decent people.
Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey has a great article on all this – I suggest those with a subscription give it a read.
[It isn’t that people should be ‘blind’ to Labor’s faults … but why are people so ‘blind’ to the manoeuvrings if the conservatives and their friends in the msm?]
Too bloody right!
[96 victoria
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 5:59 pm | Permalink
my say
I want this govt to be able to implement the policies on the table.
NBN
Mining tax
Carbon price
Those on this board obsessing with Rudd and the leadership, must not care about this at all.]
me too they are so predictable, thats why the true believers here should just walk past them and let them argue amoung them selves imagine them at aparty meeting on national conf. what harm they would do/.
so you see i dont beleive for min. they want to help the alp, so if you dont want to help the alp and you say your labor your very funny indeed.