This week’s Morgan face-to-face survey carries a shocking headline figure for Labor of 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition. However, it’s less than bad for them using the industry standard measure where preferences are allocated according to the results of the previous election, rather than as indicated by respondents, which has it at 53.5-46.5. This slightly edges the 53-47 result of March 26-27 as Labor’s worst performance since the election. The driver is a big hike in the Coalition primary vote from 43.5 per cent to 48 per cent, with Labor down a point to 36.5 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
On the subject of preference allocation, it should be noted that Labor’s preference share on the Morgan respondent-allocation measure has been fairly steadily declining since the election, as shown in the chart below (which smooths things out by using a three-week rolling average). The upshot of this is that the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure might be flattering Labor a little.
In other news, today has seen the release of the full data from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and a plethora of other information. I’m currently mining this for findings of interest and will add them to this post in due course.
I think the only war is the oo against labor and the greens. The cabinet comfidentiality stuff came from them and Greg hunt. There is an excellent parli house paper on cabinet confidentiality and it outlines the purpose of it being to unite the cabinet. Rudd’s cabinet was ended by the knifing of him. Kind makes a lot of the rationale a bit bizarre.
now h
australias-human-rights-framework
Attorney-General, Robert McClelland, today launched Australia’s Human Rights Framework which outlines key measures to further protect and promote human rights in Australia.
perth-city-link-project-reaches-first-key-milestone
The Commonwealth and State Governments are moving ahead with the landmark Perth City Link project to sink the railway line and Wellington Street Bus Station and to develop the heart of Perth, with a key milestone reached today.
three-major-reform-projects-responded-2010-11-budget
Today’s Budget is the culmination of the work of the Government’s three key health reform reports, and provides $7.3 billion in new funding to implement their key recommendations.
discussion-paper-employment-services
Australia needs employment services which meet two key challenges – to position Australia for the recovery and to respond to the skills shortages which are slowing the growth of our industries.
fund-power-stem-cell-science-breakthrough
The Australian Government will establish a stem cell research fund to boost research in a field that may hold the key to curing conditions such as heart disease, diabetes and stroke.
landmark-day-australian-nurses-and-midwives
Today the Senate has passed historic legislation that provides long deserved recognition of Australia’s highly skilled nurses and midwives.These reforms will give nurse practitioners and midwives access to the Medical Benefits Schedule (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme …
expanding-elective-surgery-capacity-our-public-hospitals
As part of its drive to reduce elective surgery waiting times, the Rudd Government will invest $800 million to improve timely access to elective surgery across the country.
critical-infrastructure-resilience-strategy
Attorney-General, Robert McClelland, today launched the Australian Government’s Critical Infrastructure Resilience Strategy.
tax-treaty-boost-information-flows
This Protocol is further proof of the Rudd Government’s determination to combat tax avoidance and stamp out evasion and to work with partners in our region to achieve that goal.
caring-our-country-good-business-planning
The business plan will fund activities to reduce the impact of pest animals including rabbits, feral dogs and feral pigs which damage native vegetation and farmlands as well as threatening livestock and native animals.
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.ere something to chew over
my say
[is adam a liberal cannot work him out.]
Does it matter! He is entitled to an opinion whatever he is!
[103
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:03 pm | Permalink
my say
is adam a liberal cannot work him out.
Does it matter! He is entitled to an opinion whatever he is!
]
Funny that according to you he can and I cannot 🙂
blackdog
Agree re Paul B. He is a fair journo.
[Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:02 pm | Permalink
I think the only war is the oo against labor and the greens. The cabinet comfidentiality stuff came from them and Greg hunt. There is an excellent parli house paper on cabinet confidentiality and it outlines the purpose of it being to unite the cabinet. Rudd’s cabinet was ended by the knifing of him. Kind makes a lot of the rationale a bit bizarre.]
YOU WANT BE HAPPY TILL YOUR JUST TALKING TO YOUR SELF WILL YOU
oops my comment at 105 was directed at mari
Frank, are you able to broadcast our ABC petition proposal on Facebook?
I should be on properly next week — but to date, I have few ‘friends’
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/04/08/morgan-53-5-46-5-to-coalition/comment-page-2/#comment-827442
Here’s another small interesting fact about the 2010
election from the Aust Elect Report exit survey.
45% of voters who switched from ALP in 2007 to
Libs in 2010, go to church more than once a year
compared to only 35% of people who voted
ALP in 2010.
[. @franklinmatthew matt in the good ole days, I would have said that you have “copped out”, These days I accept your Ltd News pro forma ]
to which matt replied
[franklinmatthew @StGusface u would say that. I am corrupt and ugly ]
why are the Ltd News journo’s so precious/
🙁
MTBW – I think you are referring to Howe’s ? I am not impressed by him at all, never have been, BUT on *the night* all of the media were screaming by about 8:30 – 9:00 that Rudd just didn’t have the numbers. So later on Howe was big noting himself, saying what had been said on most TV channels 10 times already at least.
Rudd kicking the can down the road as he did on monday night, can only end in grief.
He could have made his points in many different ways.
cannot u lot spot the ones that have two opinions all in the one day,
you must be blind if you cannot see that.
just study it for while they say one thing then they are not happy with than any more and say something else.
it to gode you all, sorry but your all very gullable,
if you cannot see that i feel sorry for the site,
you have all spent all day on this kev would be delighted and so would the oo.
i think there is not as many people blogging here at the moment as the subject is just kev for the good of the sight forget it.
wwp and evan let them talk to them selves, the other night i noticed there was three lots of conversations going.
it not a very enlightend place when its just kev v julia
isnt that what the msm are doing,
I heard that soundbite from Hockey.
It was intoned in that slightly higher pitch of his that he adopts when he doesn’t know what he is talking about or is caught by surprise.
Words to the effect that Swan made the wrong decision and he should release the advice he relied on.
You could tell it was a Pavlovian reaction, and it wasn’t followed up by the logical questions, which should have been, why was it wrong, and what should Swan have done.
The man is clueless, to the extent that he does not even realise that no reply is the best reply when you don’t know what you’re talking about.
[jenauthor
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:06 pm | Permalink
Frank, are you able to broadcast our ABC petition proposal on Facebook?
I should be on properly next week — but to date, I have few ‘friends’
]
already did that yesterday 🙂
MTBW,
I tend to ignore my say, she’s tried that on numerous times now. I’m not particuarly interested in discussing politics with someone who thinks that anyone who criticises the ALP must be a liberal. It’s nonsensical and frankly I expect better on a blog of supposedly politically engaged people.
I finally had time to sign the GetUp! petition.
Many thanks to Jen for organising. And great contiuned work by Cuppa, Puffy, and Dan to name just a few others!
[This is long overdue.
The ABC has diverted from its charter. It continues to recycle most of its news content from News Ltd, many ABC “journalists” even have a copy of the Australian in their lap as they present ABC news and current affairs (cf. Fran Kelly, Melissa Clarke). This is lazy, unethical and all too often partisan.
The ABC should stick to reporting, rather than opinion and tabloid tactics. It should not favour the Opposition with a constant recycling of their press releases, making them the protagonists of a story, rather than the government policy or program that has been announced. Independent, evidence-based comment should be sought. Too much of the ABC political reports start with the now infamous “The Federal Opposition says…”
The 7:30 program should be discontinued until a suitable political correspondent can be found. Chris Uhlmann is a failed political candidate for a far-right Christian party – his interviews with Abbott are fawning, whereas his interviews with Government figures are rude and interrupting, and his questions often contain false premises. The quality of 7:30 is also questionable — Leigh Sales appears more interested in “Vox Pop” than reporting or serious journalism. Perhaps she should apply for a job with Today Tonight.
Q&A and Insiders are mere excuses for the ABC to fill its schedule with cheap content that is just opinion — all too often from News Ltd “reporters”, including many discredited far-right extremists who are more interested in pushing a business or social agenda rather than factual reporting or comment on political developments.
For these reasons are more, there should be a full review of the ABC and its standards and why it is constant violation of its charter.
Not good enough, Aunty]
Turnbull came out today and said he still wants to be PM, he has contradicted the shadow treasurer. The shadow treasurer has floated an idea on family trusts and was over-ruled by the leader of the National Party.
Will the Weekend Oz turn the knife into Hockey again, will they follow the Menzies House theme? Will Nikki Savva be the mouthpiece of the Abbott faction?
Much more interesting than what was said by whom so long ago.
another one …
45% of voters who switched from ALP in 2007 to
Libs in 2010 did not care much who won
compared to only 29% of all voters
not caring.
feeny @82,
Hang in here mate and help with some originality.
I know it is all pretty draining but othere views and topics would really help.
I know after every poll it becomes a scene from Ground hog day regarding Julia v Kev but help us out and hang around.
cheers.
Dave
[MTBW – I think you are referring to Howe’s ? I am not impressed by him at all, never have been, BUT on *the night* all of the media were screaming by about 8:30 – 9:00 that Rudd just didn’t have the numbers. So later on Howe was big noting himself, saying what had been said on most TV channels 10 times already at least.]
I realise that but you will also remember that ALP members leaving Parliament that night when asked by the Press were completely unaware of what was happening. Howes’ performance was a smug disgrace.
Welcome to the club:)
[121
Joe6pack
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:15 pm | Permalink
Adam
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:09 pm | Permalink
MTBW,
I tend to ignore my say, she’s tried that on numerous times now. I’m not particuarly interested in discussing politics with someone who thinks that anyone who criticises the ALP must be a liberal. It’s nonsensical and frankly I expect better on a blog of supposedly politically engaged people.
Welcome to the club:)
]
Must be so small that they hold their meetins in broom closet 🙂
[120
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:15 pm | Permalink
Dave
MTBW – I think you are referring to Howe’s ? I am not impressed by him at all, never have been, BUT on *the night* all of the media were screaming by about 8:30 – 9:00 that Rudd just didn’t have the numbers. So later on Howe was big noting himself, saying what had been said on most TV channels 10 times already at least.
I realise that but you will also remember that ALP members leaving Parliament that night when asked by the Press were completely unaware of what was happening. Howes’ performance was a smug disgrace.
]
Or perhaps those MP’s were wisely keeping their mouths shut.
Oh and Rob Johnson said this about the Homeless and CHOGM:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/9158742/city-bans-homeless-for-chogm/
Frank Calabrese
How did your party meeting go the other night?
Was complete agreement reached on the direction the fed.labor is taking?
MYTW – Again am not defending howe, but that clip showing labor members leaving was shown on the ABC very early in the night. The ABC showed it repeatedly,
For anyone that’s interested a couple of interesting shows on TV over the next week:
Sunday night on SBS1-“Cutting Edge: The War You Don’t See”
[Journalist John Pilger looks at the medias role in war, tracing the history of ’embedded’ and independent reporting from the carnage of World War One to the destruction of Hiroshima, and from the invasion of Vietnam to modern-day conflict in the Middle East. As weapons and propaganda become even more sophisticated, the nature of war is developing into an ‘electronic battlefield’ in which journalists play a key role, and civilians are the victims. (From the UK) (Documentary)]
Wednesday night on SBS2-“The Berlusconi Show”
[Sex scandals, divorce and a brutal assault in Milan, 2009 was a tough year for Silvio Berlusconi. Reporter Mark Franchetti returns to the country of his birth to assess one of the world’s most controversial and flamboyant leaders. Franchetti finds an Italy divided between those who love Silvio and those who hate him. His story reads like a soap opera, but, despite the public blunders and scandals, Berlusconi seems to thrive in the face of adversity. (From the UK, in English and Italian, English subtitles) (Documentary)]
From my point of view I enjoy My say’s post and her passion and committement to the labor cause.
Some may not understand that, so be it. It is a free world but as a life long labor person who has hung in there through thick and thing, through the wharf strikes and work choices I am more committed to the labor cause than ever before and i am proud to say that I respect My say and her love of the party.
My say, may the light on the hill shine bright for ever.
cool!
[already did that yesterday :-)]
Why hold CHOGM in the CBD of any city.
I live across the road from the place CHOGM was held last time in Australia. A regional centre with a secure meeting place (Hyatt Coolum).
It helped local business owners and caused little disruption. Surely somewhere in regional WA could have gained the benefit of this meeting and spared the CBD of Perth the pain and disruption?
Yep, Doyley. My Say is a very loyal Labor Trooper. We need more like her.
[128
Doyley
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:24 pm | Permalink
From my point of view I enjoy My say’s post and her passion and committement to the labor cause.
Some may not understand that, so be it. It is a free world but as a life long labor person who has hung in there through thick and thing, through the wharf strikes and work choices I am more committed to the labor cause than ever before and i am proud to say that I respect My say and her love of the party.
My say, may the light on the hill shine bright for ever.
]
Hear Hear.
As for the others – they remind me of teenage girls and their constant changing of devotion to pop stars.
my say has more passion in her crippled little finger than her detractors have in their entire bodies.
[ruawake
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:28 pm | Permalink
Why hold CHOGM in the CBD of any city.
I live across the road from the place CHOGM was held last time in Australia. A regional centre with a secure meeting place (Hyatt Coolum).
It helped local business owners and caused little disruption. Surely somewhere in regional WA could have gained the benefit of this meeting and spared the CBD of Perth the pain and disruption?
]
Ask Colin Barnett.
I’m a 10 year card carrying labor member – why is my say shouting at me if she is paaionate labor I’m confused?
[My say, may the light on the hill shine bright for ever.]
Go My Say!
We love you. Your commitment to party and country knows no bounds.
Stuff the St Kevvies and Liberal trolls who do not want to see Gillard Labor succeed!
Colin barnett will probably enjoy the fact we are late for work because of a special wan$ fest rather than because his train system is undermaintained and he hasn’t got additonal needed rolling stock
Why don’t we move on and talk about some real politics whatever and leave the “indignation” behind.
[Stuff the St Kevvies and Liberal trolls who do not want to see Gillard Labor succeed!]
That comment was meant to be funny right?
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 12:12 pm | Permalink
…..
Caucus is unlikely to elect Rudd unless Gillard becomes terminal. They might hate Rudd, they may despise him. However, they’ll elect him if their jobs are on the line.]
If Rudd is ever leader again their job will be on the line. That is why he will never be leader again.
The sad truth for Labor, the public prefers Rudd to caucus.
WWP: part of the problem with this site is that there are people on it – and I must say, I don’t normally categorise My Say as one of them – who tend to pigeonhole people on the basis of how they vote (or how it is perceived they vote).
Once said person is pigeonholed, everything they say from that point onwards is written off as evidence of “trolling” or “helping to vote for Tony Abbott” if there is even a whiff of sentiment that is critical of the ALP.
And I say this as a member – and previous candidate – of 20+ years’ standing.
Adam@115
[I tend to ignore my say, she’s tried that on numerous times now. I’m not particuarly interested in discussing politics with someone who thinks that anyone who criticises the ALP must be a liberal. It’s nonsensical and frankly I expect better on a blog of supposedly politically engaged people.]
Just between you, me and the gatepost, the above post was neither nice nor nessary, especially as it evoked others to do likewise. It doesn’t take a lot of effort to be tolerant or to keep your typing fingers away from the keyboard if frustration overwhelms you 🙂
My Say – I think you are a lovely, caring person and a loyal Labor supporter.
Are most of the people complaining about Federal Labor from NSW? Are they suffering from the first stage of grief?
ruawake
Am I a lib Hack now?
Ah ok – thanks Danny. So I’m not sure what bucket I’ve been put in. But mark me down down for not interested in mindless adoration. When I’m in a mood for that I listen to keating the musical i don’t come here
[45% of voters who switched from ALP in 2007 to
Libs in 2010, go to church more than once a year
compared to only 35% of people who voted
ALP in 2010.]
Rudd’s “True believers” Dr Good?
Thanks Victoria re Paul B, I am glad you corrected Blackdog to me, I was getting a bit worried(no offense to blackdog)
Doyley 140. I agree, surely we can move on, to things like Malcolm T’s ambitions seems to be stirring again. Re my post 105 and also Ruawake ‘s comments
[But mark me down down for not interested in mindless adoration.]
Nor me!
fredn,
non labor voters prefer Kev.
Go Julia as PM , go Kev as FM.
Danny Lewis,
most critisicm of labor revolves around Kev v Julia, how Kev would have won “if” he had stayed, labor is moving to the right or this labor government has made my life worse off. I have asked more than one bludger who has gone on about this to provide a list of how this government has made their life worse off since 2007 and I am yet to receive a reply. etc. Same old cut and paste every time, Ground hog day 2 here we come.
By the way I have a life long dislike for the liberal party and since Abbott has become leader a dislike for anyone who votes liberal.
Sorry to others out there but that is the way I feel.
[Mytwobobsworth
Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 6:49 pm | Permalink
But mark me down down for not interested in mindless adoration.
Nor me!
]
Well in my book the constant holding up of Kevin Rudd is exactly what those whing about it are doing.