Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

This week’s Morgan face-to-face survey carries a shocking headline figure for Labor of 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition. However, it’s less than bad for them using the industry standard measure where preferences are allocated according to the results of the previous election, rather than as indicated by respondents, which has it at 53.5-46.5. This slightly edges the 53-47 result of March 26-27 as Labor’s worst performance since the election. The driver is a big hike in the Coalition primary vote from 43.5 per cent to 48 per cent, with Labor down a point to 36.5 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.

On the subject of preference allocation, it should be noted that Labor’s preference share on the Morgan respondent-allocation measure has been fairly steadily declining since the election, as shown in the chart below (which smooths things out by using a three-week rolling average). The upshot of this is that the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure might be flattering Labor a little.

In other news, today has seen the release of the full data from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and a plethora of other information. I’m currently mining this for findings of interest and will add them to this post in due course.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [However, it’s less than bad for them using the industry standard measure where preferences are allocated according to the results of the previous election, rather than as indicated by respondents, which has it at 53.5-46.5.]

    is that like glens old formula reversed

    👿

  3. 3934 my say
    Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 4:41 pm | Permalink
    GUSFACE

    well all i can say it i am team player and very proud to be so,

    The leader has my full support,
    Its like a footy team the captain changes you dont sit on the sidlines and salt.

    want mention any names here, but if you do the other dont bother being a labor person go and join the libs or start your own.

    I AM PROUD OF BEING A TEAM PLAYER AND SUPPORTER OF THE PM

    so up the jumper to any one who does the opposite

    over and out

  4. [GetUp! is not affiliated in any way with Crikey. The fact that someone has a Crikey subscription has no bearing on the number of votes/points they have to use at GetUp!]

    From the other thread

    Cuppa

    Thanks for that. Please excuse my ignorance. I was just guessing as I have both and didn’t know how the votes worked.

  10. [The farce was played out for real in Brisbane’s Stamford Hotel on Wednesday, where the Foreign Minister and the Prime Minister were both staying. She was on a visit to flood affected areas. He was escorting 100 diplomats about Brisbane. Security was doing everything in its power to keep the two from bumping into each other in the hallways.

    This is a toxic relationship and it’s hard to see how this story ends happily.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/08/3186123.htm

    toolman fantasising again

    he even quotes scripture

    ABC wont you be rid of this false priest

    🙁

  11. [7th Apr 2011

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard today met with His Excellency Mr Jia Qinglin, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

    The talks between the Prime Minister and Chairman Jia focused on Australia’s comprehensive and constructive relationship with China and explored areas where the potential exists to enhance our strong cooperation.]

    Did this get reported anywhere? Nah its not news.

  13. BK,

    It is also well known that if your head is in the oven and your feet are in an ice box, you are, on average, warm.

  14. How can a bunch of w**kers who are not only a policy free and a moral vacuum to boot, with a buffhead as a leader back flipping and pikeing that would be a credit to Thorpy, still get this sort of support. Labor need a whole new PR team with some up front slogans repeated hourly to sink into the thick heads. shakes own head and leaves room

  16. As I said on the Newspoll thread this poll was taken the same weekend.

    So all those anti Julia and other naysayers may as well just cut and paste to save time.

    Increased productivity and all that being the go !

  17. What a load of tosh from Uhlmann

    [Lo, as she departed East, this story appeared in The Australian .]

    Er Chris it was written by Matthew Franklin, hardly a friend of the Labor Party.

  18. gee on the get sight that denese woman think like me re midsumer murders
    i sure i know the old shows better than the people who played them
    they only had to play the parts once i think ive seen them three times by now
    some go back 4 years. i could even remember what i was doing when i saw the very first of th e 4 repeat series.

  21. Gusface

    When I started to read Uhlmann’s piece, I thought ‘he must have been taking lessons in humour from Annabel”.
    I would dearly love to see a replay of some of the Howard/Costello interchanges and interesting body language. They still managed to act like a team. So did Hawke/Keating.
    There’s nothing says that all pollies have to be sweethearts all the time, any more than two managers in a company. Hasn’t anyone else here managed to work with someone they hate? I have.
    We’re all reacting to the constant barracking from the msm when we take so much notice.

  22. Mytwobobsworth@3845 on Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition – The Poll Bludger

    Dave I had a friend come to visit sorry for the delay in responding!

    MTBW – Rudd barely had 10 members of caucus who were prepared to support him when he was didn’t offer himself for re-election after the leadership spill.

    But you (and others) already know that, but just will not accept it.

    I know nothing of the kind!

    Fair enough. Just name those who would have voted to re-elect Rudd as Leader then, after the Leadership spill.

  25. Doyley,

    I am all for JG and the current ALP team, including Rudd, however, the polls are showing that Tony, using the Goebbels Guide to Teabagging Tactics, is successful and the message that is registering with the punters is that this government is stuffed.

    It won’t matter how much history proves that wasn’t true, unless the ALP media machine starts getting a positive message through to the voters, now, they will vote the coalition in come the next election.

    Eight or nine weeks of Pre-election PR is not going to be enough to change the message that this govt is stuffed. To effect a change to a more positive message by the time the election comes around, that PR is going to have to start now.

  27. Some more from the 2010 election exit survey.

    So we have seen that leadership issues accounted for about 16%
    of the ALP’s nett two-party preferred loss of votes to the LNP.

    Instead, the most important reasons for the move were reported
    by voters as policy issues (accounting for over 60% of the nett
    loss).

    So what policies were making people switch ALP to LNP?

    Well, the people who did switch ALP to LNP reported the
    following as the “most important issue in the election”:
    Health and Medicare 22%
    Economic management 22%
    Education 19%
    Global Warming 11%
    Tax 7%
    Interest rates 7%

    Which is a bit odd.

  28. SPACE CADET

    its often forgotten here that howard had very bad polls yes just like this.
    particularly leading up to the GST no matter what he said or did.

    so i dont agree with you that things have to change now

    abbott is very clever granted but clever by half in the long run when the policies are all out there and july 1 comes. who knows.

    but i do agree i dont understand why people would beleive a word he said

  30. William Conroy @ 14

    [Labor need a whole new PR team with some up front slogans repeated hourly to sink into the thick heads.]

    Yer, frak policy or doing the things the electorate actually want them to do – MORE PR! MORE PR! MORE PR! MORE PR! MORE PR! MORE PR! MORE PR!

  31. [Well, the people who did switch ALP to LNP reported the
    following as the “most important issue in the election”:
    Health and Medicare 22%
    Economic management 22%
    Education 19%
    Global Warming 11%
    Tax 7%
    Interest rates 7%

    Which is a bit odd.]

    agreed very odd, but we all only assumed that people still wanted the global warming thing at that stage and thats why kevins polls tumbled i think it was him saying sorry about the insulation thing.
    that made my oh and other very angry they said he should of said. well look this is something that is out of the control of the gov. when the policy is out there we have to hope its implemented , we cannot crawl through every roof.
    and left it at that. i felt very sorry for Mr. garrett seemed kev was not defending him i think he was left out on a limb it made me angry

    may be thats what up set most of the people yes the younger set the gl, warming thing but may be not all people.

  32. [LYNDALCURTIS | 1 minute ago
    On Capital Hill on #abcnews24, Nick Minchin on ADFA and on how the Opposition should deal with budget cuts. 1730 AEST]

  36. This is a toxic relationship and it’s hard to see how this story ends happily.

    Gus – I haven’t read Ullmann or watched 730 for two weeks now, but I cannot see
    how the *story* will end happily.

    Rudd could have *defended* his record many ways without breaking cabinet confidentiality but made a deliberate decision to do so.

    Not only that, he spoke very clearly about it – something he only rarely does.

    Howard as much as I still loath him would never have *admitted* poor judgement. He would have said he tried 3 times to get the Bills through the senate, he negotiated with the opposition and there was no prospect of progressing the matter in the foreseeable future etc. He would have stressed those that are finding fault with what he did are doing so with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and that is not the political reality he faced.

    Labor is going to have Rudds *poor judgement* confession used as a political baseball bat over its collective heads for years to come. Its not the first time Rudd *cut & run* in this way – think Pink Bats, BER.

    And Rudd has committed himself to make further strife for his own party. If past experience is any guide it will be timed to do maximum damage to the party he once lead.

    Rudd may end up like latham – taking a run up and kicking labor in the nuts whenever it takes his fancy.

    I still cannot see how the *story* will end happily.

  39. dave

    after the way Rudd performed this week. I tend to agree with you.

    Despite what some people on this board are saying, Rudd did not behave in the interests of the people of Australia. If climate change policy is important to him. Why talk about discussions had in cabinet re the ETS. He wants this govt to fail, because he failed as a PM.

  40. @35

    The import of that: the govt should forge ahead with changes that ameliorate AGW without taking too much notice of polls/criticism. Look at the yes/no attitude on dams: we had a wet year, don’t need dams. We had a drought – quick, build dams.

  42. Just added 3 more votes and left another message on the GetUp campaign site:

    [The people demand factual informative reporting, yet the Marie Antionette’s at their ABC say “Let them eat recycled Limited News crap and LNP talking points”.

    Bastille Day is coming!]

    http://bit.ly/gN4RHI

  43. you really have to love this fatcat. He is so adorable.

    ANZ chief says Gillard govt weak

    That picture is really missing something—perhaps he needs a cigar to chomp on.

  45. [Thus at most 16% of the ALP’s nett two-party
    drop in votes can be explained by
    people who changed their votes
    because of leadership issues.]

    Looks like an excellent analysis Dr. Good.

    Thanks very much for the effort and the very interesting results. Corker of a job.

  47. SK @25,

    Thats a fair call. I agree with you. I haven’t got my rose coloured glasses on at all.

    It just gets a bit draining when all the old Julia v Kev etc lines keep coming out.

    Bring on something new.

  48. victoria@32

    LYNDALCURTIS | 1 minute ago
    On Capital Hill on #abcnews24, Nick Minchin on ADFA and on how the Opposition should deal with budget cuts. 1730 AEST

    If they had the numbers they would withhold supply, I have no doubt about that. The libs as usual will *copy* from the tories in the UK or the repubs in the US.

    At the moment what is happening in the US is what they will try to do, ie somehow try to interfere with the passage of the budget bills. I don’t know how, but thats what I think they will do.

  49. lizzie

    Rudd knew the msm would do that. He said it himself on Monday night. Apparently the msm only report 1% of what is said. Guess which 1% they reported. No other news got any traction. Rudd’s behaviour is inexcusable.

  50. kev is a disspointment again, i hope this is a lesson to the people around here and out there that keep supporting him.
    i wonder how many friends he has.
    Bob Hawke said nothing about Paul Keating and still doesnt.

    may be his tongue got the better of him on q and a and couldnt not help himself.
    Ok its out now kev lets leave it at that,. and support your team

    i

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