This week’s Morgan face-to-face survey carries a shocking headline figure for Labor of 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition. However, it’s less than bad for them using the industry standard measure where preferences are allocated according to the results of the previous election, rather than as indicated by respondents, which has it at 53.5-46.5. This slightly edges the 53-47 result of March 26-27 as Labor’s worst performance since the election. The driver is a big hike in the Coalition primary vote from 43.5 per cent to 48 per cent, with Labor down a point to 36.5 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
On the subject of preference allocation, it should be noted that Labor’s preference share on the Morgan respondent-allocation measure has been fairly steadily declining since the election, as shown in the chart below (which smooths things out by using a three-week rolling average). The upshot of this is that the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure might be flattering Labor a little.
In other news, today has seen the release of the full data from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and a plethora of other information. I’m currently mining this for findings of interest and will add them to this post in due course.
[There’s something for your next dinner party.]
jv, are you saying that your dinner parties are odorous?
The problem for the Miners, Clubs, Tobacco Cos and Polluters is that there is only so much whinging space available in the media and in our heads. Some of the whingers are going to lose.Which ones will it be?
Scariest campigns for govt in order of most scariest to least scariest for govt:
Carbon tax
Pokies laws
Mining tax
Tobacco Laws
McCallum’s article assumes a level media playing field.
That assumption alone renders the article of little use.
bluegreen: call me a hopeless optimist, but I think all the upcoming stoushes will be a good thing in the long run.
I think we will hit Peak Whinge, when everyone will throw their hands up in despair at the constant negativity in the media and start looking for positivity for a change. When they do that, Abbott and Co will be seen as the No Policy, Do Nothing whingers they are and people will see that the government is actually trying to do something in their time in office, rather than just time-serving.
Mind you, I suspect that won’t happen until well after July 1 😉
BB
I believe since the Government has forced the Tobacco Cos to remove their branding, and therefore the registered trademark. The Tobacco Cos can claim the whole value of their existing trademark.
Their argument would be that they will have to establish another trademark (in lime green) and therefore any money made from the new trademark would not mitigate the lost of the previous trademark
In this case I agree with what the government is doing, but I wonder how much of it will work. The packaging at the moment says “Smoking will kill you” in big letters… if that does not work, I am not sure what else will
[The problem for the Miners, Clubs, Tobacco Cos and Polluters is that there is only so much whinging space available in the media and in our heads.]
The problem for the Government is that the quartet mentioned have lots of funds to throw at anti-campaigns.
[As one who thinks the Burqa is precisely a marker for cultures that oppress women, and is not part of the Islamic religeon, I support the ban. Those who oppose it can take comfort that they agree with Osama Bin Laden]
Two things.
The burqa predates most religions — it is a cultural phenomenon that is being used by others to make a point. It is not a symbol of oppression, per se, it is a symbol of cultural history (all cultures have oppressed women at one time or another).
To take your point to its natural conclusion then: all people should dress asexually in order to prevent repression of sectors of our society.
Also, for those who see it as a religious symbol….would you ask people not to wear cricifixes? Stars of David? Ankh’s? Nun’s habits? Buddhist robes? We complain about pc gone mad — banning an item of clothing for a perceived symbolic value is ludicrous.
Better to ban cigarettes or alcohol … they are responsible for more social difficulty than any item of clothing (but because they are ‘culturally acceptable’ we ignore their effects).
Scarpat@2501
No, just that they are beyond comparison.
Carbon tax will end up alomst exactly like the CPRS with some concessions to the Greens (and Windsor) and can’t be backed down on. (Unless they want to put forward an unworkable Bill and hope that the HoR blocks it)
Pokies Law- all they have to do is put it forward. The reponsibility for whether it passes is neither here or there for the govt.
Mining Laws- surely done and dusted. Greens to pass tax. Libs to pass tax cuts.
Tobacco Laws- unless there is some funny buggers from Oaky or Windsor will pass and be forgotten.
[In this case I agree with what the government is doing, but I wonder how much of it will work. The packaging at the moment says “Smoking will kill you” in big letters… if that does not work, I am not sure what else will]
dovif
I feel it’s the long game the government is playing here. They want to take away any opportunity for peer pressure to start young ones off on the filthy addiction.
New thread.
[No, just that they are beyond comparison.]
jv, glad that you cleared that up.
[The problem for the Government is that the quartet mentioned have lots of funds to throw at anti-campaigns.]
But the campaigns will merge into a blamange in people’s minds.
[jenauthor
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 4:29 pm | Permalink
As one who thinks the Burqa is precisely a marker for cultures that oppress women, and is not part of the Islamic religeon, I support the ban. Those who oppose it can take comfort that they agree with Osama Bin Laden
Two things.
The burqa predates most religions — it is a cultural phenomenon that is being used by others to make a point. It is not a symbol of oppression, per se, it is a symbol of cultural history (all cultures have oppressed women at one time or another).
To take your point to its natural conclusion then: all people should dress asexually in order to prevent repression of sectors of our society.
Also, for those who see it as a religious symbol….would you ask people not to wear cricifixes? Stars of David? Ankh’s? Nun’s habits? Buddhist robes? We complain about pc gone mad — banning an item of clothing for a perceived symbolic value is ludicrous.
Better to ban cigarettes or alcohol … they are responsible for more social difficulty than any item of clothing (but because they are ‘culturally acceptable’ we ignore their effects).
]
and you don’t need a Burqa to hide bombs – as those prioposing the bans assume – you can easily strap a bomb while wearing a Nun’s habit 🙂 or even by carrying abackpack ??
[Scariest campigns for govt in order of most scariest to least scariest for govt:
Carbon tax
Pokies laws
Mining tax
Tobacco Laws]
And isn’t it great we have a government that says bugger the polls and goes ahead with these? Of course during the last term a number of folks here were calling just for that. A government that is not poll driven but issues driven. Well, here it is!!!
[2516
Gary
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 4:37 pm | Permalink
Scariest campigns for govt in order of most scariest to least scariest for govt:
Carbon tax
Pokies laws
Mining tax
Tobacco Laws
And isn’t it great we have a government that says bugger the polls and goes ahead with these? Of course during the last term a number of folks here were calling just for that. A government that is not poll driven but issues driven. Well, here it is!!!
]
But it’s only ok if Kev’s the boss.
[Her response: ‘It’s important that Australians discuss Labor’s proposed carbon tax.’]
I just got the same e-mail. No relationship whatsoever to my email to her. Taxpayers money well spent.
So, while atheists do not appear to have a difficulty with a theist as PM, the reverse is not true?
Jesus riding on a Dinosaur
A Little something for our Christian readers
__________________________________
Yes really…from a Creation Theme Park in Ohio(Yes it’s one of those (Only in America things)
This way the fundies don’t have to argue about evolution !
Why do people task this sort of primitivism seriously ?
but a bit of a hoot any way !
I agree with the comments on the political bias of the ABC but am more concerned at the lack of professionalism displayed in many news reports and interviews. The quality of the ABC has declined considerably. Many items are unresearched, the announcers and reporters are obviously ignorant of many topics they are talking about (this applies to radio as well as television). It certainly seems to me the ABC has abandoned “standards” of language, integrity and excellence. I suppose such values do not accord with a valueless post-modern relatvity. Often, If presenters/announcers are discussing an issue or topic of which I have some knowledge, their ignorance is often appalling. I have, sadly, come to expect that most ABC employees will make the most obvious, glib, tabloid view on almost any topic. Obviously there are still some, increasingly rare, exceptions. I do not trust the ABC anymore. It seems to me it is just another unprincipled, cheap, pointless, “entertainment” oriented medium. One wonders why we need to pay taxes for more Murdoch/Packer rubbish.
The second aspect which makes me most sad and angry is that the ABC does not seem to anymore accept a role as a medium to convey an Australian culture, identity and language to young Australians. While I have not done a proper survey, I notice most of the children’s programmes are not only derived from the USA (which could be acceptable) but no attempt is made to dub them into Australian language or idiom. In other words our taxes are paying to undermine/replace Australian culture and identity. I assume the ABC does that from laziness and nor does it care. Certainly neither of their masters, the Liberal and Labor Parties care about Australian identity and culture.