The Australian has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of its federal polling data, compiling the results of the four polls it has published this year (it took January off). The national figures are therefore no surprise to us, as they are merely an average of this year’s polling: Labor on 34 per cent of the primary vote compared with 38.0 per cent at the election, the Coalition on 42 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent compared with 11.8 per cent (remembering that phone pollsters seemed to have acquired a tendency to overrate the Greens and underrate Labor). The Coalition holds a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50.1-49.9 to Labor at the election.
The real interest in the figures is in the various breakdowns offered, particularly by state. The most distinctive result on voting intention is the solid recovery for Labor in Western Australia, from a dismal base of 43.6 per cent at the federal election to 45 per cent in October-December 2010 to 48 per cent this time. A Labor hike in Queensland from 44.9 per cent at the election to 48 per cent late last year looked rather too much at the time, and sure enough the latest poll has it moderating to 46 per cent. Labor’s decline overall has been driven by NSW/ACT, from 49.5 per cent two-party at the election to 48 per cent in both quarters, and Victoria, from 55.3 per cent at the election to 55 per cent to 53 per cent. In South Australia, where Labor has nothing in the way of tight marginals, they have gone from 53.2 per cent at the election to 51 per cent and 52 per cent.
If such swings were uniform, the Coalition would gain Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay and possibly Banks in New South Wales, plus Corangamite and La Trobe (but not quite Deakin) in Victoria. Labor would gain Hasluck, Canning and Swan in Western Australia, and Brisbane in Queensland. Other things being equal, and leaving Banks with Labor, there would be a net shift of one seat in the Coalition’s direction: from 73 Coalition and 72 Labor to 74 and 71. This of course makes the notably unsafe assumption that all sitting cross-benchers would be re-elected. Furthermore, the capitals and non-capitals breakdowns suggest it would be worse for Labor than that. In the metropolitan areas which are home to most of the marginal seats, the two-party vote is at 50-50 compared with 52.5-47.5 in Labor’s favour at the election. In the non-capitals Labor has gained ground, now trailing 52-48 rather than 53.4-46.6.
On personal ratings, the most interesting finding is that both leaders have soured among the 50-plus age group. The results for Tony Abbott defy some of the stereotypes about his support base: his 52 per cent disapproval among the 50-plus is the highest of any age group, and a once substantially higher approval rating among this cohort has fallen right back to the field. He has also lost ground among 35-49s, as has the Coalition on the primary vote. Gillard is down four points on approval and up five on disapproval among the 50-plus, a situation which is reversed among the 18-34s, now clearly her best cohort.
New South Wales and Queensland are about equal as Julia Gillard’s worst state, owing to a post-election recovery in Queensland. Victoria and South Australia are roughly equal as her best (although her disapproval is up in South Australia), with Western Australia surprisingly close behind. Tony Abbott’s ratings have been consistently mediocre in New South Wales and Victoria and consistently neutral in Queensland, but he has weakened considerably in South Australia and Western Australia: from net neutral to minus 14 and minus 12. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is only six points in Queensland, elsewhere ranging from 15 points in New South Wales to 23 points in Victoria. Gender splits lean in the expected directions, though not as heavily as you would think. An exception is disapproval of Gillard, with women notably more reluctant to give her the thumbs down.
This senate Select Committee is excellent viewing!
jenauthor
I thought the same thing. Everytime Wilkie said something positive about the make up of the parliament, we lost sound. I tell you, ABC shit me!!!
John Hatton on local news didn’t actually blame the CT for his poor showing but said, in part, the animosity towards the Federal Indepentants stopped him from winning a seat.
[MFARNSWORTH |
Wilkie describes his weekly meetings with Gillard and Abbott. “Last weekend’s election has changing nothing.” #auspol
MFARNSWORTH | 18 seconds ago
Wilkie talks of a “cross bench filter” through which legislation is improved in the hung parliament. “Bad legislation” can be blocked]
vera:
I don’t think people are saying he shouldn’t attend, just that it shows poor judgement to associate the Liberals with an angry, sexist far-Right rump.
That’s right vic, and I have just emailed him back to say thanks and to make the point of how such good work is done by Senate Committees when politics is subjugated.
Looks like Ponting’s resigning from the captaincy.
[MFARNSWORTH | 46 seconds ago
Wilkie is asked about a possible withdrawal of support from Gillard if poker machine reform is not implemented… #auspol]
Vera, the reason people were angry at Abbott at the rally is that he knowingly stood before such nasty banners.
Any politician worth his/her salt would not allow him/herself to be associated with the banners.
[MFARNSWORTH | 44 seconds ago
Wilkie: I want to emphasise the govt has been overwhelmingly cooperative… #auspol
MFARNSWORTH | 1 minute ago
Wilkie: If legislation has not passed by Budget 2012 I will withdraw my support. #auspol]
confessions
That is what frustrates me, the spin, anyone who doesn’t want a CT is a minority, angry, sexist far-Right rump according to labor.
I live in country NSW and I can tell you there are plenty of normal people (labor voters included) who don’t want the CT
Same as NSW, everythings rosy, make Robbo leader and let Obied still pull the strings, deny the wipeout,
[MFARNSWORTH |
Wilkie talks of Abbott’s potential to govern from opposition with the support of the crossbenches… #auspol
MFARNSWORTH |
Wilkie on how Abbott is faring: “I don’t Abbott has played it as well as he might have since the election.” Has been “destructive”]
If KOW and Bandt + Greens in the senate refuse to pass anti pokies legislation will Wilkie pull support from the govt.
Oh for goodness sakes, we laughted at banners and marched behind them of Howie sniffing Bushes arse!
How thin skinned has Labor become?
Paul J
I am not watching Wilkie presently, but according to tweets I posted, it would appear so.
[MFARNSWORTH | 30 seconds ago
Wilkie: It is impossible to know who I would support if it came to that… I don’t think it’s going to come to that. #auspol]
[Now it is so shallow and runs lightweight stories that it might be considered to be of the same ilk as what has been playing on Channels 7 and 9 at 6:30.]
I think 7.30 has a way to go to sink to those depths.
[
If KOW and Bandt + Greens in the senate refuse to pass anti pokies legislation will Wilkie pull support from the govt.
]
From what I have head from him previously, yes
head = heard
vera
was a Labor pollie standing in front of those banners addressing the crowd? No. Therein lies the difference. Anyhow, Howard deserved a lot more disdain than that. We went to an illegal war. tens of thousands of Aussies rallied against it, and our govt went anyway. By comparison, a carbon tax, is no big friggin deal.
He isn’t giving Labor any way out is he ?
[MFARNSWORTH | 42 seconds ago
Wilkie: Even if I did pull my support it could be done in such a way as to assist the parliament to run full-term. #auspol]
[MFARNSWORTH |
Wilkie supports the idea of a Federal Gaming Minister – says he wouldn’t be available for it – independents shouldn’t get too close to govt]
Paul J
It appears he would not switch support to the coalition though.
[mfarnsworth Malcolm Farnsworth
Wilkie: Even if I did pull my support it could be done in such a way as to assist the parliament to run full-term.]
How would he achieve this with the ensuing howls from the right regarding unworkable parliament etc etc
vera:
No, I’m not saying those opposed to a carbon tax are all like the majority of people we saw at the rally last week. Those people last week are not in the mainstream, despite the spin from the media and the Liberals.
The people genuinely perplexed about a carbon tax will undoubtedly be the focus of the govt as it formulates the legislation. I think the case needs to be made that unless we price GHGEs now, we are simply delaying the inevitable. The cost of action is going to be far greater in the future, and will therefore have to be borne by greater numbers of Australians with a higher carbon price. It makes no sense either economically or socially to delay.
As a side note, Katter has already indicated that he will support Wilkie’s gambling reforms in parliament.
Wilkie is teasing Abbott at the same time reiterating his leverage with the govt.
Abbott will likely be on Wilkie’s doorstep as soon as this NPC presentation is over.
[Oakeshot being induced to change sides, on the promise that he can run unopposed by the Nationals next time in Lyne, would be illegal.
Ain’t gonna happen.]
You’re right evan, it ain’t gunna happen
[Nationals federal director Brad Henderson has also categorically rejected reports his party is prepared not to contest the independents seats of New England and Lyne if the pair abandon their support for the Gillard government.
“We will contest those seats and we intend to win those seats,” Mr Henderson told The Australian yesterday.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nats-fire-opening-salvo-in-bid-for-independents-seats/story-fn7r7bxz-1226029664724
I think Wilkie’s being a bit naive here. If he withdrew support I can’t see any way the parliament could go full term.
I assume that Wilkie would continue to vote on bills on their merit, so pulling his support only matters for motions of no-confidence. I think he’d abstain rather than go the other way. In that case a motion of no-confidence would fail 74-75 with Jenkins’s casting vote.
jenauthor
what Wilkie said today is nothing new. He has been saying this for months. It doesn’t change anything. He has weekly meetings with Gillard and Abbott. Abbott already knows all about this scenario. As I already stated Katter is on board these reforms. The main thing Wilkie wants from the govt is legislation to force the states to introduce precommittment. Of course, this is if some states do not agree to it.
@ Triton
I don’t think Katter would back Abbott in a no confidence motion either
Martin Fiel demonstrates why the Productivity Commission was the wrong body to ask about a carbon price in the first place. Fiel says he doesn’t know how to set such a price, looks at it only from an economic viewpoint, admits he is a “don’t knower” on cliamte change (=skeptic), and then says, because of his ignorance, that we “can’t” put a price on carbon. Pure sophistry.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/the-truth-is-you-cant-put-a-price-on-carbon–no-one-can-20110328-1cdei.html
[MFARNSWORTH | 6 seconds ago
Wilkie says he supported the flood levy rather than be responsible for the govt cutting another $1.8 billion from more programs. #auspol
MFARNSWORTH | 1 minute ago
Wilkie on budget cuts: says he wants to meet with Finance minister Wong – “I’m not asking for Denison to be quarantined.” #auspol]
[MFARNSWORTH | 20 seconds ago
Wilkie asked about compensation for poker machine industry: “I don’t share power that much.” #auspol]
[MFARNSWORTH | 8 seconds ago
Wilkie on the Labor govt: I think history will record this as a reformist govt and it is so because it’s a power-sharing parliament. #auspol]
Just to change the subject completely, I put my name down for the special Crikey subscription offer, got an email a week and a half ago acknowledging my interest and saying I would be contacted that week. Haven’t heard anything since.
Have you guys (and gals) all been signed up okay? If so, aren’t I good enough for them?
[I don’t think Katter would back Abbott in a no confidence motion either]
Maybe not, now that the government has been chosen. But he did choose to side with the coalition in the first place. That implies that he would have had to side with Abbott to kick Gillard out had she not had the numbers but dug in.
A new commenter by the name of Frank has left this comment on the Queensland thread, where I was obliged to delete it because it was off topic. However, I am taking the liberty of pasting it here, as I believe it is important that the truth be heard.
[Most Australians know when they are being lied to, but, the bigest lie of all has yet to be discovered by them. Your Government has sold your own house/farm!!!! Don’t believe it? Watch this video!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuTtKxP4skg
Also this one about your food, you won’t believe it.
…
http://www.infowars.com/food-the-ultimate-secret-exposed/ ]
After what happened on the weekend, I’m now very wary about the Carbon Tax and its political implications for Federal Labor.
Considering also how badly the Greens did in New South Wales, I’m afraid I think that the community has lost its appetite to tackle climate change in a meaningful way.
Sue #188
I had to phone the subscription number last week to get the 65 dollar deal, the young lady who answered was very polite, helpful and efficient. She said subscribing online was not working the day last week I tried, she did it for me.
Sue:
I got a reply email, asking for payment by the end of March.
Bernard Keane in Crikey, stating the obvious.
[A most extraordinary attack was launched yesterday, on free speech in Australia, and on an individual. It was by a former Federal Court judge, now a barrister, and it was an attack sanctioned by a court.
It was launched by Ron Merkel QC, for a group of plaintiffs who have taken Andrew Bolt to court under the Racial Discrimination Act for several articles about Aboriginality.
The opinions expressed in Bolt’s articles were grossly offensive and wrong headed. They deserved condemnation. But they were no more than offensive. Now he finds himself in court, having to defend his words, to justify himself.
This has prompted plenty of spiteful delight from his critics. But anyone who supports free speech cannot but be sickened by what went on in the Federal Court in Melbourne yesterday.
It’s easy to defend free speech when you agree with what’s been said. The only real test is when you disagree, and disagree strongly. Bolt deserves the support of free speech advocates, regardless of how much they may disagree with his bilious outpourings.]
for those of us who listened to Mr. wilkie yesterday 2014 was mentioned a lot.
I think the 2012 is that the legislation is ready to go.
William, if you are running a cunning counter-intuitive campaign to destroy free speech, then you are doing very well indeed…
K
[William, if you are running a cunning counter-intuitive campaign to destroy free speech, then you are doing very well indeed…]
I think you are on the money!
william 190
one question WHY ?????
Still a chance of Hanson getting the last seat. If she does, will hold the balance of power!!
[It’s easy to defend free speech when you agree with what’s been said. The only real test is when you disagree, and disagree strongly. Bolt deserves the support of free speech advocates, regardless of how much they may disagree with his bilious outpourings.]
Voltaire paraphrased