Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

For the second week in a row Essential Research has Labor clawing back a point on two-party preferred, from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes however are little changed: Labor up a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens on 10 per cent. However, a question on the government’s carbon pricing announcement find greater opposition than a fortnight ago, with 34 per cent support (down four) and 51 per cent opposition (up two). Forty per cent believe an early election should be called over the tax – mostly Coalition supporters, many of whom were keen on a new election to begin with – with 44 per cent opposed. A question on preferred form of compensation has 39 per cent favouring direct payment, 33 per cent an income tax cut and 13 per cent and cut to the GST rate.

More happy polling for Kevin Rudd, whose performance as Foreign Minister has 61 per cent approval and 19 per cent disapproval. Fifty-seven per cent approve his intervention in Libya, with only 22 per cent disapproving. There is also a question on the importance of Australia’s relationship with various countries, in which every single country has had an increase on “very important” since the question was previously asked in mid-November. New Zealand and Japan in particular appear to have recorded sympathy votes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 14 of 14
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  1. evan14
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 11:47 pm | Permalink
    But Rudd was right about the no fly zone, as current events demonstrate!

    Don’t get me wrong, I think he did a good job there (no doubt he will tell us all about it as well!). Its just not clear to me which countries whose leaders are attacking their civilians we are now going to act against. Is it going to be all from now on?

    How many planes do we have again?

  3. I wouldn’t accuse Ally Moore of being a Liberal hack – she’s quite professional in her interviews.
    The ABC’s real problem is their inability to cover live news events in a professional and error free way.
    Was spending all the extra government funding on a 24 hour news channel a wise investment?

  5. News 24 has been a dismal failure – the only saving grace is “The Drum”, dependent of course on the quality of the panellists.

  6. Don’t get me wrong, I think he did a good job there (no doubt he will tell us all about it as well!)

    Which is exactly what he should be doing. The ALP continues to be very poor at spreading it’s good message, opening themselves up to a hammering from the Coalition on just about every topic for no good reason. The more you put the “we done good” message out there in a way that the MSM can report, the more you blunt TA.

  7. Yep, communications skills aren’t Labor’s strong point – all very well to blame a biased media, but this government has a good story to tell about the economy.

  8. @modlib 11,54pm
    “Don’t get me wrong, I think he did a good job there”

    No, you don’t *sucker*
    you’re just trying on an NLP line – thinking you can destablise Gillard’s leadership.

  9. he Australian contribution to the no fly zone is a can of Mortei flyspray

    Qantas planes have had a few explosions recently, surely they could be of some assistance…

    Pushing the state Newspoll results into the AG election calculator from 2010 gives a net improvement to the ALP on the current figures of 4 extra seats from WA. However, with the improvement in the NSW, Vic and SA results for the Coalition this could yield more seats than the calculator (as ALP hold disproportionately more seats than their vote share). However, however, the Coalition vote fall in Qld also gives the ALP an extra 2 seats…..

    too hard….off to bed. Night all!

  12. Haven’t watched 4C for a while, but it is still spot on. Not sure what big Red is doing hosting it tho – what does he do that the reporter of the story couldn’t do for themselves…

  15. William Bowe
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Kezza, I have had a fair bit to say about the appropriate limits of state power in relation to free speech, which better educated readers would have discerned were influenced primarily by John Stuart Mill. Namely, that freedom of speech is one of a quite small number of basic rights, together with life, liberty and property (it is in fact an extension of the right to liberty), and that the appropriate role of state is to act to uphold such rights. Speech can reasonably be limited when it amounts to a direct assault on one of them, which doesn’t happen very often. It certainly doesn’t apply when somebody’s feelings are hurt by what’s said about them in a newspaper column, which on any reasonable interpretation is all that’s happened here.

    Very defensive William, and very gobbledygook
    if you don’t mind me saying…

  16. Ahh the OO on Newspoll – and NSW:

    australianThe Australian

    Sunshine State cooling on Gillard: Newspoll: LABOR and Julia Gillard have suffered setbacks in the pivotal state… http://bit.ly/gsFar7

    8 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    australianThe Australian

    Nats say NBN deal sells out the bush: LABOR has secured the passage of its NBN laws through an eleventh-hour dea… http://bit.ly/hEymWP

    8 minutes ago

  17. Bolt at his best cut and paste, selectively, no argument of his own and William you condone this type of journalism, I thought better of you.

    Andrew Bolt
    Sunday, March 27, 2011 at 08:43am

    There should be no room in Australia for apartheid justice – and especially apartheid justice that does not work:

    Attorney-General Robert Clark refused to guarantee that specialist courts such as the Neighbourhood Justice Centre in Collingwood, the Drugs Court in Dandenong, or Koori courts around the state would be retained. He said he wanted to ‘’mainstream’’ what the courts had achieved, normally code for ending special treatment for specific groups.

    We must turn back this tide of New Racism, even when a paper like the Sunday Age calls it a “reform”. It isn’t reform but regression. We must rise above racial divisions, not entrench them.

    UPDATE

    More apartheid justice was introduce in Victoria last year:

    New provision for Aboriginal Australians

    The Bail Amendment Act 2010 inserts section 3A in the Bail Act, which imposes a specific requirement on decision makers in relation to Aboriginal Australians. Section 3A requires a decision maker to take into account (in addition to any other requirements of the Bail Act) any issues that arise due to a person’s Aboriginality when making a determination under the Bail Act, including:

    • the person’s cultural background, including the person’s ties to extended family or place
    • any other relevant cultural issue or obligation.

    The requirement in section 3A applies to all determinations made under the Bail Act. For example, when deciding:

    • whether or not to grant an accused bail under section 4
    • any bail conditions to impose on an accused in accordance with section 5
    • whether to extend bail in an accused’s absence under section 16
    • an application for variation of bail conditions under section 18AC
    • whether or not an accused has reasonable cause for failing to answer bail under section 30.

    The matters to be considered under section 3A will not determine a bail decision. The issues arising due to a person’s Aboriginality will only be one of the factors that may be relevant to the decision.

  20. William Bowe

    Posted Tuesday, March 29, 2011 at 12:58 am | Permalink

    No David, the comment simply sailed over your head.

    Davis is correct.

    By Imputation – you have sunk to Andrew Bolt’s level.

  21. 669

    William Bowe

    Posted Tuesday, March 29, 2011 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    David, you are a remarkably unintelligent person. You plainly haven’t understood a single thing I’ve said.

    Keep digging that hole – your beginning to sound like someone you banned last night 🙂

  23. 672

    William Bowe

    Posted Tuesday, March 29, 2011 at 1:04 am | Permalink

    Of course, Frank’s obliviousness to the substance of the issues involved was foreshadowed at the outset.

    no, Your blind devotion to Racism in the guise of Free Speech, along with your disdain of Religious vilification has proven my point of several months.

    You have joined the ranks of Bolt, Paul Murray the elder and Howard Sattler.

  24. David

    Posted Tuesday, March 29, 2011 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Kezza, I have had a fair bit to say about the appropriate limits of state power in relation to free speech, which better educated readers would have discerned were influenced primarily by John Stuart Mill. Namely, that freedom of speech is one of a quite small number of basic rights, together with life, liberty and property (it is in fact an extension of the right to liberty), and that the appropriate role of state is to act to uphold such rights. Speech can reasonably be limited when it amounts to a direct assault on one of them, which doesn’t happen very often. It certainly doesn’t apply when somebody’s feelings are hurt by what’s said about them in a newspaper column, which on any reasonable interpretation is all that’s happened here.

    Very defensive William, and very gobbledygook
    if you don’t mind me saying…

    Three Words – Jack The Insider – note how weak at the knees William became ?

  26. Your blind devotion to Racism in the guise of Free Speech..

    Can tell its getting late at night, Frank turns into a WeirdWolf.

  27. Thomas Paine

    Posted Tuesday, March 29, 2011 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    Your blind devotion to Racism in the guise of Free Speech..

    Can tell its getting late at night, Frank turns into a WeirdWolf.

    Reading Bilbo’s defence of Bolt has been an eye opener – and he’s meant to be Edumackated FFS.

    UWA has a LOT to answer for – but then again they produced Christian Porter 🙂

  30. Arbib is on the money here:

    But Senator Arbib admits the New South Wales bloodbath highlights the need to make changes, and has thrown his support behind reform of the party at every level.

    “The key here is there has to be reform of some of the party processes, there also has to be reform in terms of candidate selection. We’ve got to be getting community type candidates in you know nurses, teachers, police,” he said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/29/3176141.htm

  31. Who said media bias is new:

    Another excerpt from the same period – this time on the theme of alleged press bias. The names of some of the political parties mentioned near the end of this one are interesting. There’s even an interview with the leader of the DLP (the Democratic Labor Party), Frank McManus. (Although, listening to Frank, it isn’t difficult to imagine why the DLP disappeared soon after.)

    Very large MP3 file here:

    http://www.bluehaze.com.au/audio/mp3/election_13dec75_3aw_press_bias.mp3

  32. Free Speech
    _____________
    The great liberal philosopher John Stuart Mill said in his famous work”on Liberty”
    “there ought to exist the fullest liberty of professing and discussing as a matter of ethical conviction ,any doctrine however immoral it may be considered ”
    In my view we should have NO laws on any matter to protect any viewpoint from criticism,whether it is to shield a religion from criticism,or to dispute any event whether it be to doubt that the earth is round or that there was no nazi Holocaust.

    All laws which prescribe what we MUST believe are in breach of free speech,and whatever Bolt(much as we may dislike him”) says about aboriginality is an expression of his opinion,and must be accepted ,regardless of who feels hurt by that!
    That is the essence of freedom
    I am glad to hear William that that is your view too..if I am reading you correctly

  37. Diogenes
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    But it isn’t as Vitriolic as against Arbib and Bitar.

    I don’t agree. Howes would be the most hated ALP figure here. Perhaps we should take a vote.

    You’ve got my vote. Howes seems to be Labor’s equivalent of Christopher Pyne, except that he cops just as much from his own side.

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