Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland

Lost in the excitement of the NSW election result has been a breathtaking Galaxy poll published in Brisbane’s Sunday Mail newspaper, showing the Liberal National Party set to sweep to victory under the sort-of-leadership of Campbell Newman. Respondents were first asked who they would vote for if an election was held today, which produced a result of 36 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the LNP and 10 per cent for the Greens. These are very similar results from the Galaxy poll a month ago which found that while Anna Bligh had recorded a stunning recovery on personal approval, Labor remained in the doldrums on voting intention. However, they are notably different from the recent Newspoll conducted under not altogether different circumstances, such that there is a lingering note of confusion as to where things currently stand.

I don’t think Galaxy have relieved this much with the wording of their supplementary question: “If Campbell Newman became the leader of the Liberal National Party in state parliament and challenged Anna Bligh at the next election, which one of the following would you vote for?” This of course is not literally in prospect. Nonetheless, the poll makes some sort of point by finding the LNP vote spiking further under the conditions as described, with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred and primary votes of 50 per cent for the LNP, 34 per cent for Labor and 9 per cent for the Greens.

Importantly, 59 per cent of respondents rate the Campbell Newman switch a “good idea” against only 31 per cent who think it a bad idea. Newman leads Bligh as preferred premier 51-38, which compares with a 58-33 lead for Bligh over John-Paul Langbroek a month ago. On the question of preferred LNP leader, 60 per cent favour Campbell Newman against 13 per cent fro Lawrence Springborg, 7 per cent for Langbroek and just 3 per cent for the formal incumbent, Jeff Seeney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

22 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Someone has got excited about it all:

    [A punter with an interest in Queensland politics has put up $20,000 in a bet that the LNP will snatch the next state election.

    Centrebet accepted the wager less than a week after Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman announced he would lead the opposition team at the next election.

    The punter will pick up a cool $36,000 at $1.80 odds if the LNP comes through.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-win-attracts-20000-bet-20110327-1cbqm.html

  3. I have a very fond memory of that, BKH. Responses from the crowd: “He’s right!” “Give us hell, Quimby!” I think a bit of that sort of thing from our politicians would work better than their advisers would dare believe.

  5. You can’t be in govt for 4+ terms without punters wanting a change. Whats perhaps more surprising is that these long terms ALP govts have remained competitive so long – as Brumby was, and Bligh still is.

  6. SpencerJolly [Campbell Newman admits he’s submitted to pyschological tests as to his suitability to lead LNP]

    Just because you’re psychologically fit to Lead the LNP wouldn’t mean he’s fit to run a state’.

  7. @Can_do_Campbell hey lord mayor, seeney’s on record in hansard as supporting an ETS. Are you a believer? about 2 hours ago via web

    This is actually a good question for the Can-do-better man. He can probably phone the Feds and ask them what response they want him to have.

  10. Meanwhile another LNP splinter group continues to build and threaten to split the LNP in South East Queensland. It is starting to look as though the Courier Mail and Madonna King might just have gone too far with their anti Bligh vitriol and created a monster to devour the LNP – all based on Galaxy polls too.

    [Meanwhile, Aidan McLindon’s Queensland Party continues to name candidates.

    The Beaudesert MP has announced seven new candidates, including former members of both major political parties. Mr McLindon said the LNP’s leadership stoush showed he was right to branch out on his own.

    “And I’d rather be a one man band inside the Parliament than a one man band outside of Parliament,” he said.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/galaxy-poll-reveals-voters-are-split-on-where-they-want-campbell-newman/story-e6freoof-1226029017367

  11. David , not all of us in QLD read the only rag in town ( Rupert’s Rag CM ) or half dozen “Local papers ” owmed by the phone hacker. Its not all bad , the poll rang LNP members only poll.

  12. [SpencerJolly [Campbell Newman admits he’s submitted to pyschological tests as to his suitability to lead LNP]]

    These tests don’t mean much when you look at those who have passed them!.

  13. Wonder if Stewart Copeland is sitting beside his phone with a lunch cut waiting for a call?

    I doubt it as standing as an independent is instant expulsion. I’m not sure what the rules are for LNP but I remember reading that Peter King was banned for 10 years from the liberal party for standing as an independent in the seat of Wentworth after losing his preselection against Malcolm Turnbull. Young CEO Isaac Moody who organizes a Christian country music festival is one of the candidates putting his name in the hat for the seat of Toowoomba South.

    http://www.thechronicle.com.au/story/2011/03/28/moody-stands-lnp-preselection/

  14. The member for Rockhampton has retired and the Queensland Party has announced a replacement.

    [A former union representative accused of bullying colleagues will run as a candidate for the Queensland Party at the state election.

    But the leader of the fledgling political party, former LNP member Aidan McLindon, last night dismissed concerns about Shane Guley’s suitability, insisting he would have “a bit of backbone” if elected to Queensland Parliament.

    Mr Guley, preselected to run in the seat of Rockhampton, was sacked by Queensland Rail in 2001 over claims he intimidated and victimised fellow employees.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    The Queensland Industrial Relations Commission found Mr Guley’s workplace conduct was “unacceptable and inappropriate behaviour to the extreme”.

    Mr Guley, who denies the bullying allegations, was forced to quit as a candidate for the Labor Party in Maranoa at the 2007 federal election after details of the dispute surfaced.

    Mr McLindon said he had spoken extensively to Mr Guley and was satisfied his heart was in the right place.

    “He’s got a bit of backbone,” he said.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/election-candidate-a-workplace-bully-20110328-1cde4.html

  15. A bit of a bunfight seems to be developing for the By-election in the coucil ward vacated by Graham Quirk who is replacing Runaway Lord Mayor Pretend Out of Parliament Opposition Leader Big Ego Can Do Better Campbell Newman.

    [Lord Mayor-in-waiting Graham Quirk has dismissed rumours a former Howard minister and Brisbane radio host could be in line to take his newly vacated council seat.

    Former multicultural affairs minister Gary Hardgrave has emerged as a dark horse to be parachuted into the MacGregor ward, which is set to be vacated by Cr Quirk]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/council-move-for-brisbane-radio-host-denied-20110328-1cddq.html

  16. OOpS -No Byelection

    [“After the resignation of the Lord Mayor [on Sunday] and my subsequent election, the LNP organisation will then call for nominations for the MacGregor ward,” Cr Quirk said.

    “They will then call for pre-selections and the successful candidate at that pre-selection will be notified to the chief executive officer of the Brisbane City Council.

    “And that person will then be sworn in as the councillor for the MacGregor ward.”]

  19. Now let us introduce the next likely candidate for the Queensland Party. The way things are going we could have a drama queen, vs a pretend not in parliament opposition Leader vs a Minister running for Ashgrove.

    [MAVERICK Brisbane councillor Nicole Johnston was last night dramatically escorted from City Hall by four police officers during a fiery final meeting for Lord Mayor Campbell Newman.

    Cr Johnston broke down in tears several times during the hour-long drama in which she repeatedly refused requests by chair Cr Krista Adams and chief executive Colin Jensen to leave the chamber following her suspension.

    Cr Adams had suspended Cr Johnston for what she deemed repeated interjections during debate, including discussions about the resumption of the Indooroopilly roundabout land.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/police-called-to-eject-councillor-nicole-johnston/story-e6freoof-1226030305863

  22. How is this possible? The LNP has been saying for months that nobody has been preselected yet.

    [Meanwhile, the LNP candidate who stood aside so Mr Newman could run for Ashgrove will run for a different seat.

    It is understood Aaron Dillaway, who had been preselected for Ashgrove before Mr Newman unveiled his switch to state politics, will instead run for the party in Bulimba.

    Mr Dillaway was among MPs and candidates who posed for photos with Mr Newman after the aspiring premier was endorsed as de facto opposition leader by the party room.]
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/door-opens-for-second-mayor-to-run-20110404-1cyr7.html

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