Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

For the second week in a row Essential Research has Labor clawing back a point on two-party preferred, from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes however are little changed: Labor up a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens on 10 per cent. However, a question on the government’s carbon pricing announcement find greater opposition than a fortnight ago, with 34 per cent support (down four) and 51 per cent opposition (up two). Forty per cent believe an early election should be called over the tax – mostly Coalition supporters, many of whom were keen on a new election to begin with – with 44 per cent opposed. A question on preferred form of compensation has 39 per cent favouring direct payment, 33 per cent an income tax cut and 13 per cent and cut to the GST rate.

More happy polling for Kevin Rudd, whose performance as Foreign Minister has 61 per cent approval and 19 per cent disapproval. Fifty-seven per cent approve his intervention in Libya, with only 22 per cent disapproving. There is also a question on the importance of Australia’s relationship with various countries, in which every single country has had an increase on “very important” since the question was previously asked in mid-November. New Zealand and Japan in particular appear to have recorded sympathy votes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 13 of 14
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  1. vp,

    It wasn’t a criticism, just an observation. She can more than hold her own on her worst day. On her best she is brilliant.

  2. I think to misqoute and unfairly extend the thoughs to my own ends from words of carmen lawerence from a debate at uwa sometime ago – in the labor party we have always believed that the right of Australians to collectively enjoy life without having to suffer hate and abuse because of sexual preference / religion / race clearly and decisively outweighs the rights of one or two morons to freely spread hate / abuse / intolerance.

    Again to be clear I am talking in theory without specific reference to any actual case past present or future.

  3. [She still isn’t turning the discussion on the carbon tax into an economic question. She needs to point out that if we don’t put a price on carbon then the alternative isn’t no tax, it is more federal spending with politicians and bureaucrats picking winners, i.e. the same failed policies of the 1950s to 1970s.]

    ShowsOn – there was a good piece linked today about the debate on CC and pricing having to change to convince climate deniers or naysayers.

    It was a piece from the US but the point was made that nothing will convince them until the Insurance companies and their ilk point out that they are taking action because they think it is necessary.

    Maybe this is another avenue the Govt. can use – another economic angle.

  4. [You proved my post re William allowing Defamatory Statements laid against ME without question.

    He also allows inappropriate capitalisation. I think I’ll serve him with a writ tomorrow.]

    Guilty as charged, M’lord

  5. so these quarterly newspoll results show things haven’t much changed since the election

    How boring is that?
    I want some action baby.

  6. [Yeah exactly, but you don’t hear Labor explaining it in these terms.]

    Combet gave a good fist of it in a speech recently, but it was not covered in the msm – I watched it live on Apac.

    [Remember, the Liberals are committed to the same cuts as Labor, but they think they can achieve it using socialism.]

    With their soil carbon proposal they are offering farmers $8 per tonne. How many farmers will take up that offer, given the costs to them will make that price prohibitive?

    Did you see Steve Canane’s demolition of Greg Hunt last week on LL? Brilliant stuff.

  7. [Gusface

    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    You proved my post re William allowing Defamatory Statements laid against ME without question.

    He also allows inappropriate capitalisation. I think I’ll serve him with a writ tomorrow.

    Guilty as charged, M’lord
    ]

    pots and kettles.

  8. K,

    Bolt is your traditional Pitbullshit columnist. Bred to kill and enjoys putting it’s fangs in to innocent puppies and other innocents. Basically, a thug breed

    Should be neutered.

  9. [606
    BK
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 11:03 pm | Permalink
    Rudd vs Mesma next week.
    ]

    Not really a fair contest unless mesma can phone a friend lots

  10. GG @ 453

    [Was that in the 1921 series?]

    I’d like to be able to lay a claim to that sort of 5 -0 whitewash, but alas it was just the Parramatta District Competition in the late 1970’s, 80’s and ended in the 90’s. My only other claim (?) to fame was that my lowly career coincided exactly with ABs – 1978 to 1994.

  11. Rudd vs Mesma next week.

    Kev’s already told people to wear soft shoes if they intend throwing them at him

    Wonder will they bring their bowls along?

  12. [BK
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 11:03 pm | Permalink
    Rudd vs Mesma next week.

    Cage match or jelly?]

    Its actually a cage match in jelly!!

    Everyone is happy

    🙂

  13. Quarterly newspoll Federal poll shows a 4% swing to ALP in WA since
    the election (both primary and TPP).

    I’m happy with that

  14. ML:

    Sartor’s interview was very good. I didn’t quite understand the lolly shop reference though – was distracted by something else. Did you catch it?

  15. [Rudd vs Mesma next week.]

    It’s more like Rudd :kiss: Mesma next week after all they are locked up in Foreign Affairs

  16. [Combet gave a good fist of it in a speech recently, but it was not covered in the msm – I watched it live on Apac.]
    But Labor needs to be doing it whenever they are anywhere near a camera or microphone.

    Everyone should know before the next election that Tony Abbott’s response to climate change is that every year politicians (including Abbott himself) and bureaucrats are going to sit in a room and write on a whiteboard a list of billion dollar projects that they think will stop carbon emissions. Whereas Labor’s position is to get the market to factor in pollution for the first time ever.

  17. [ShowsOn – there was a good piece linked today about the debate on CC and pricing having to change to convince climate deniers or naysayers.]
    Do you have a link?

  18. GG
    Actually I got banned from Bolt when I had the temerity to ask if one of the semi-naked girls he put up was one of his daughters.
    He hasn’t done a rupert page 3 again, to my knowledge.

  19. [Quarterly newspoll Federal poll shows a 4% swing to ALP in WA since
    the election (both primary and TPP)]

    Would any of our resident sandgropers care to suggest why this might be?

    Are people waking up and finding Barnett’s hand in their pockets?

  20. Rudd on Q&A – As long as Tony Jones keeps the emphasis on foreign affairs, it should be a good hour of television. 😉

  21. And, yes, I know, I have claimed that I got banned from Bolt because of my climate change antics. Happened at the same time as the Page 3 business. Who’s to know. I reckon it was both. But, I always hoped it was because I drew his attention to the fact that he wouldn’t like the same shit said about his daughters.

  22. Julian Morrow did a great job hosting the breakfast program on Radio National over summer – unlike Fran Kelly, Toolman & Melissa Clark, he can actually do the job in an objective, thoughtful manner – ditto for Steve Canane.

  23. [confessions
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 11:12 pm | Permalink
    ML:

    Sartor’s interview was very good. I didn’t quite understand the lolly shop reference though – was distracted by something else. Did you catch it?]

    Sorry, doing multiple things at once as usual, missed that reference.

    It was wonderful to hear he decided to keep the Planning portfolio to protect the people of NSW from his colleagues who were beholden the the big developers though.

    Purr Lees!!!

  24. Looks like a draft bill introduced in Pommyland today?

    [The draft Defamation Bill has been broadly welcomed by media reformers, but many believe the politicians have been perfunctory when they could have been revolutionary]

    [The thrust of the argument for libel reform has focused on the need to protect freedom of speech. Reformists argue that London is the prime ­destination for libel tourists intent on destroying fundamental freedoms by?silencing?writers?through ­expensive litigation.]

    [?Eight key clauses in the draft bill

    ?1. Substantial harm defence
    Libel is currently actionable without proof of actual damage. Recent case law has introduced a “threshold of seriousness” with regard to what is ­defamatory.
    The bill states that a claimant must demonstrate that a statement caused, or is likely to cause, substantial harm in order for it to be defamatory.
    2. Responsible publication on a matter of public interest defence
    This codifies some of the ­existing law on the Reynolds ­qualified ­privilege defence.
    The aim is that the defence will be available ­regardless
    of whether the ­statement complained of is a statement of fact, an inference or an opinion. Historically this defence has arguably related to statements of fact only.
    3. Statutory defence of truth
    This clause replaces the current common law defence of ­justification, clarifying the law in relation to reportage ­doctrine. Where this applies, the defendant does not need to ­verify the information reported before publication if they believe it to be true at the point of publication.
    4. Honest opinion defence
    This can be relied upon if the ­statement is one of opinion and on a matter of public ­interest that an honest person could have held on the basis of a) a fact that existed at the
    time the statement ­complained of was published, or b) a ­privileged statement that was published before the statement.
    5. Privilege
    This extends provisions already ­contained in the Defamation Act 1996. For example, the law currently provides for absolute privilege to apply to fair and accurate reports of proceedings in public before any court in the UK.
    This defence would be extended to cover proceedings in any court in a country or ­territory outside the UK.
    6. Single publication rule
    The first occasion on which a publication is made available to the public (or to any section of the public) is to be regarded for all purposes as the date
    of ­publication of each ­subsequent publication.
    7. Libel tourism
    A court does not have ­jurisdiction to hear and ­determine an action to which this section applies unless the court is satisfied that England and Wales is the most ­appropriate jurisdiction in which to bring an action in respect of the statement.
    8. Presumption of trial without jury
    A reversal of the status quo, with proposals to remove the presumption in favour of a jury trial so that the judge would have the discretion to order
    a jury trial where it is in the interests of justice.]

    http://www.thelawyer.com/focus-defamation-clauses-c%C3%A9l%C3%A8bres/1007461.article

  25. Some would argue that Sartor has an axe to grind against Tripodi/Obeid/Robertson, hence the reason for his bitterness.
    Not me of course…………the fact that Obeid is still hanging round in the Upper House is abhorent to me.

  26. [evan14
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 11:19 pm | Permalink
    Rudd on Q&A – As long as Tony Jones keeps the emphasis on foreign affairs, it should be a good hour of television. ]

    Rudd trumped Gillard on the Libya No Fly Zone and I suspect you are going to have to steel yourself for the odd “Would you be doing a better job than Julia” type questions.

    Start the slow deep breaths now my friend! 🙂

  27. [Tom Hawkins

    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Quarterly newspoll Federal poll shows a 4% swing to ALP in WA since
    the election (both primary and TPP)

    Would any of our resident sandgropers care to suggest why this might be?

    Are people waking up and finding Barnett’s hand in their pockets?
    ]

    Increased Power Bills 🙂

  28. The Queensland component of Gillard Satisfaction has risen 7% from 34% at the last election to 41% now. Perhaps her performance during the floods has helped her here.

  29. William Bowe
    Point I was making by my last couple of comments was:
    A few commenters made it quite clear to Bolt that he was going too far in trying to emulate Rupert Murdoch’s Page 3 girl to his blog.
    He reacted, quite virulently, until his regular entourage, mostly women, also disagreed.
    He then pulled the pics.
    If commenters on a blog can pull an ar$ehole into line, then why can’t his colleagues do the same?
    Wouldn’t take much.

  30. Mod Lib: Rudd will handle any of that leadership stuff with his usual dignity – not at all worried on his behalf. 🙂
    And I’m sure he’ll repeat that he’s got more pressing world issues to worry about right now.

  31. [Would any of our resident … care to suggest why this might be?]
    The carbon tax, of course. It’s responsible for everything.

  32. Interesting result from Newspoll analysis:

    2010 election Coalition primary vote – ALP primary vote (based on pre-election Newspoll):
    +11 with men and
    +4 with women

    So basically female voters got Julia up to the level of a draw, preventing defeat
    Or alternatively male voters boosted Tony to a draw, preventing a bigger defeat

    I know the one I favour!

  33. [And I’m sure he’ll repeat that he’s got more pressing world issues to worry about right now.]

    like why we don’t have no fly zones over Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen (feel free to insert at will)

  34. [AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver says the dollar could rise further as commodity prices stay strong.

    “I think ultimately it will go higher and maybe to $US1.10 by year end,” Dr Oliver said.]

    I might have to bring forward my plans for an extensive US holiday.

  35. evan14 @ 630

    [Julian Morrow did a great job hosting the breakfast program on Radio National over summer – unlike Fran Kelly, Toolman & Melissa Clark, he can actually do the job in an objective, thoughtful manner – ditto for Steve Canane.]

    That in itself is a sad commentary on the current low ebb of professionalism in ABC news and current affairs – the guy is a bloody comedian, and he shows up the alleged trained professionals for the dolts that they are.

    Perhaps we can exchange the Chaser boys in their entirety for the current crop of frauds and dimwits on the 7.30 Report?

  36. Thinking about Tony Windsor, i seem to recall that when he first went to federal parliament the state by-election for Tamworth went to the Nationals only to see the Indie Peter Draper winning the seat at the 2007 state poll.

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