For the second week in a row Essential Research has Labor clawing back a point on two-party preferred, from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes however are little changed: Labor up a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens on 10 per cent. However, a question on the government’s carbon pricing announcement find greater opposition than a fortnight ago, with 34 per cent support (down four) and 51 per cent opposition (up two). Forty per cent believe an early election should be called over the tax – mostly Coalition supporters, many of whom were keen on a new election to begin with – with 44 per cent opposed. A question on preferred form of compensation has 39 per cent favouring direct payment, 33 per cent an income tax cut and 13 per cent and cut to the GST rate.
More happy polling for Kevin Rudd, whose performance as Foreign Minister has 61 per cent approval and 19 per cent disapproval. Fifty-seven per cent approve his intervention in Libya, with only 22 per cent disapproving. There is also a question on the importance of Australia’s relationship with various countries, in which every single country has had an increase on “very important” since the question was previously asked in mid-November. New Zealand and Japan in particular appear to have recorded sympathy votes.
Seems slowly, slowly is the go for the ALP. The carbon price issue is a bit of a surpries because I had thought support had grown, however as the detail filters through and people realise the situation is not as scary as RAbbott has led them to believe, support will grow.
Bit of a status quo poll. Except for the odd thing with a decline in support of the carbon tax by Greens supporters.
It will take a while for the NSW election influence to wash out. Maybe three or so months. And that puts it into a new senate.
b-g
re NBN rollout. It is not 25 years, but 2.5 years.
Shame there was no Abbott approval ratings.
I know vic. It was just the URL
[mfarnsworth Malcolm Farnsworth
They’re a talkative lot, these NSW voters. So many different messages to so many people.
11 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply in reply to ?
@SpaceKidette
Space Kidette
@mfarnsworth The only one I heard was “bugger off”.
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]
I think with the carbon price there is still some cynicism and confusion out there as a result of it being dropped last year and now re-instated.
(We all know it was only postponed but the perception out there is that it was dropped)
As long as the government stay on-message and are determined then support will slowly and surely rise.
You can’t complain about the question. It isn’t just a simple do you agree or disagree with the proposed carbon tax. The question is:
Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
Just 34% support for this question is a real problem for the govermment. Even 23% of ALP and 24% of Green voters oppose it.
The carbon tax polling is going to bounce around for some time yet.
[… the odd thing with a decline in support of the carbon tax by Greens supporters.]
Odd? It’s inexplicable!
One third of Greens support for the CT has dropped in a few weeks according to this poll.
If this is an accurate reflection, what DO they damn well support?
[abcthedrum The Drum & Unleashed
by mfarnsworth
Mungo MacCallum: If a man is known by the company he keeps Tony Abbott is is raving, bigoted, ignorant ratbag http://bit.ly/em2Rt9
7 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
Bushfire,
It appears to be anything other than what they can get.
LOL, SK 😀
If Tone isn’t making a big dent in labor now (broken election promise; minority govt; carbon tax, etc etc) he ain’t never going to. Surely this is desperately bad news for him. How long before his party gives him the boot?
Maybe the statement by the PM saying the Greens represented extremes in government has them p*ssed?
As it would probably be missed in the move to the new thread, I repost this as I think it has merit in explaining the drop in support by the Greens for a Carbon price. (spelling corrections included) 😉
[ The decline in support for the carbon price is amazingly being driven by the Greens.
I reckon that’s because in their objections to the CPRS, they over egged the omelette by such a degree in their demonising of compensation and the illogical insistance of the 40% reduction figure.
Their supporters became convinced that “that” was the only alternative and that anything less was inconceivable and not worth even considering, let alone even a moderate fall back position to see that the process can at least get started and further modifications be introduced as circumstances and the movements in the economy permit.
Politics overtook common sense and logic. They are now reaping the fruit of that. There is only a heartbeat, between even getting an ETS up and the potential of years and years of dangerous delay to the detriment of both the ecology & economy.
The Greens should be condemned for not alowing the CPRS through when it was clearly able to get through and the Labor Government was strong enough to permit it to develop to suit prevailing conditions. ]
[Maybe the statement by the PM saying the Greens represented extremes in government has them p*ssed?]
Right. So their hurt feelings are more important than “saving the planet” (as they would put it)? They only want a CT if Julia’s nice to them?
Can’t believe that.
Can’t think of anything in the past little while that could have caused a drop from 78% down to 56%. A few % maybe, but not one-third of their support.
This is monumentally disastrous news, if accurate.
scorps,
I think the important thing to remember when it comes to the greens is that Brown, Milne and co are all still on board and supporting it.
I am off to pick up the cherubs. I will be back soon!
[The Greens should be condemned for not alowing the CPRS through when it was clearly able to get through and the Labor Government was strong enough to permit it to develop to suit prevailing conditions. ]
To be fair to the Greens they only had on chance to do that, on the second, negotiated vote when the two Libs crossed the Senate floor.
They’d have had to absolutely reverse everything they’d argued, up until that very day, to do so. I think that’d be a step too far down the Hypocrisy Highway.
I’m not an expert at reading polls, but it seems to me that the decline in support for pricing carbon in this poll is being driven by the Greens respondents and not those who say they support the Coalition or the ALP
Dee
thanks for posting link to Mungo MacCallum. He is spot on!
[Can’t believe that.
Can’t think of anything in the past little while that could have caused a drop from 78% down to 56%. A few % maybe, but not one-third of their support.
This is monumentally disastrous news, if accurate.]
Don’t believe it! I know our host gets annoyed when we suggest something is up with some facets within polls but moi suspects this is more than dubious.
Space Kidette,
[scorps,
I think the important thing to remember when it comes to the greens is that Brown, Milne and co are all still on board and supporting it. ]
Well, it seems as though they have either forgotten to inform their supporters of this fact, or they are having trouble bringing their supporters expectations back to ground level from the lofty, and impossible to achieve heights that they placed them previously.
I think the latter is pretty close to the mark!
don’t have access to A-PAC. Can someone update the state of play? Thanks.
When the carbon ‘tax’ and the compensation were tied in a question, the response was positive. This poll separates them again in a slightly confusing way. Could lead to odd result. Also, the compensation question on reduced income tax would be rejected by anyone on govt benefits who doesn’t pay tax, regardless of their opinion on the carbon pricing (e.g. me).
Victoria
[Dee
thanks for posting link to Mungo MacCallum. He is spot on!]
You are welcome! 🙂
He is spot on alright!
bb as i said a poll is just a poll.
ask 25 people in the room then the next 25 come in you get a different result.
regarding opinion of one particurlar policy,
I have a suggestion:
The ‘green’ vote has changed markedly over the past 10 or 15 years.
In the old days it was traditional hippy, greeny voters; people for whom environmental issues were front and centre of their concerns. Now, the Greens Party were always more than just that, and over time their platform became more widely known.
The shift to the right by both Labor and Liberal has pissed off many who are on the left of both parties, and so these people have drifted permanently – often as card-carrying members – to the Greens. Many centre-left issues are now being abandoned by the major parties in favour of more “safe” centre right policies. This in turn has meant that these left of centre voters now in the Greens are pushing their agenda even more to the left on many social issues.
Two issues spring to mind: the Greens have solid, non-negotiable positions on gay marriage and euthanasia; issues that still cause angst in the Labor and Liberal Parties, and which probably will for a while yet.
Voters who consider these important issues – deal-breakers, if you will – will always vote Green. They may or may not be interested in more general environmental issues; hence the increasing “green” disinterest that is showing up in polling.
Should either the Labor or Liberal Parties suddenly embrace, as party policy, gay marriage and euthanasia, expect the Green vote to fall another 2-3 %.
Shorter Danny: when Green is not really “green” 😉
Relative to recent events this poll makes more sense than the Friday one. The drop in carbon tax support will be a concern but I think Gillard was taking the right tack in recent weeks, so she should continue. Polls will improve if Labor is consistent and once NSW blows over.
Re the Greens and carbon tax: we’re talking about a sample of 100 people here. It’s almost certainly statistical noise.
The rebels in Libya are reported to have captured Sirte (gaddaffis home town) unopposed. They have retaken all the towns in between it and Bengazhi, including Ras Lanuf. That means they have most of the oil in their control again.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/03/201132681812362552.html#
This is a remarkable rate of advance since they were reported in heavy fighting at Ajdabiya a few days ago – 400km in about 3 days. Evidently the government forces aren’t fighting in the east now and are in retreat to Tripoli.
well dee what if my co incidence all the emails for sampling went to the people who dont like the ct its possible.
what if you had a question about, do you like choclate cake.
and some how all the people polled this week didnt like chocolate cake.
where as last week 70 percent like choclate cake.
it different to asking who will you vote for its something with a party you like or dont like.
With regard to the greens support for the CT, the same question was asked both times. The same amount of information was out there both times. I can think of no reason why there would be a 22% reduction in support in a two week time frame.
So, I think it is most probably best to just shrug the shoulders and at this point in time try not to over analysis. From time to time the unexplanable happens in single polls.
Wait and see what happens the next time the question is asked. Until then I think we are just clutching at straws trying to find something that just may not be there.
Thanks william gee i am on to something and didnt know
talking of chocolate cake think i will make one.,
the weather today is just devine here warm with a hint of breeze that says autumn
[and see what happens the next time the question is asked. Until then I think we are just clutching at straws trying to find something that just may not be there.]
yes it is just chocolate cake
tonight’s q&a will have
Tanya Pilbersek
Graeme Morris
Julian Morrow
John Della Bosca
Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
BB
[Can’t think of anything in the past little while that could have caused a drop from 78% down to 56%. A few % maybe, but not one-third of their support.]
WB
[Re the Greens and carbon tax: we’re talking about a sample of 100 people here. It’s almost certainly statistical noise.]
The MOE for a sample of 100 polling at 78% is 8% so it is much more than the MOE. Is the question the same as the previous one?
Thanks for adding some perspective on the Greens William.
Still out of 100 respondents, 24% opposing a carbon price seems a bit high, although I guess you could claim they supported other ways of tackling climate change.
Victoria: does that mean the fabulous Julian Morrow and the execrable Concetta Fierravanti-Wells cancel each other out? 😉
socrates,
She’s back!
I agree that they haven’t taken their supporters with them. If that represents more than the noise that William is suggesting but given the sample size I would suggest William is on the money.
BK,
Are you going to spend your evening viewing another of your lovely Liberal ladies?
I am personally acquainted with a number of Green voters who are gay and vote for them because of their stand on gay marriage rights.
They couldn’t give a fig about the environment, but feel very, very strongly about the Greens’ policy on gay rights.
They were also (except one who always described himself as a “swinging” voter, despite always coming down on the side of the Libs!) ex Labor voters, who switched because of this issue alone.
My point is I’m sure they’re not alone.
Danny Lewis
who will cancel out Graeme Morris?
Kidette
Is there no end to it????
BK,
Might be a good time to go fishing! 😀
Danny Lewis
as it stands, gay people will have no comfort from either Libs or Labs at the moment. Unless the Labor party get a consensus at the Labor Party conference later in the year.
[victoria
Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
tonight’s q&a will have
Tanya Pilbersek
Graeme Morris
Julian Morrow
John Della Bosca
Concetta Fierravanti-Wells]
Good grief! Have I already put the NSW Right completely out of my mind? I saw the announcement earlier and thought, “Typical ABC loading, Plibersek against Morris and Wells”. Della’s name must have passed me by. How soon we forget!
Actually, Della’s not the worst of that lot and might have something useful to say.
Victoria: Tanya is fab as well, but she needs to learn to be more assertive and not let the ferals talk over her.
I suppose she could be the one to cancel out Gra-Gra 😉
Kidette
You may well have a point. I will desist from making piscatorial comparisons.