Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

For the second week in a row Essential Research has Labor clawing back a point on two-party preferred, from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes however are little changed: Labor up a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens on 10 per cent. However, a question on the government’s carbon pricing announcement find greater opposition than a fortnight ago, with 34 per cent support (down four) and 51 per cent opposition (up two). Forty per cent believe an early election should be called over the tax – mostly Coalition supporters, many of whom were keen on a new election to begin with – with 44 per cent opposed. A question on preferred form of compensation has 39 per cent favouring direct payment, 33 per cent an income tax cut and 13 per cent and cut to the GST rate.

More happy polling for Kevin Rudd, whose performance as Foreign Minister has 61 per cent approval and 19 per cent disapproval. Fifty-seven per cent approve his intervention in Libya, with only 22 per cent disapproving. There is also a question on the importance of Australia’s relationship with various countries, in which every single country has had an increase on “very important” since the question was previously asked in mid-November. New Zealand and Japan in particular appear to have recorded sympathy votes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. And the Puff Adder apparently sides with the Bolt. Surprise, surprise!
    [The Federal Court in Melbourne has begun hearing a civil case against Herald Sun newspaper columnist Andrew Bolt.

    Bolt is being sued under the Racial Discrimination Act by a group of Aborigines over four articles he wrote in 2009.

    The court has heard the articles questioned the motives of light or white-skinned people who identified themselves as Aboriginal, implying they did so for personal gain.

    The court was told Bolt was breeding prejudice against them.

    The court heard the articles were “a head-on assault on a group of highly successful and high-achieving” Aborigines.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/28/3175590.htm?section=justin

    [@throbmeister
    @SMirabellaMP likens #andrewbolt to gospel writer telling the truth re: fair skinned aboriginals – Tony Abbott must be proud of her #auspol
    54 minutes ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply
    replies]

  2. An interesting set of numbers that show some continuing trends slightly back towards the Government on TPP, but the drop in support from Green supporters for the carbon price policy is probably a sampling artifact due to the small numbers involved.

    Overall, pretty much status quo, so nothing to get excited about either way.

    The NSW election now being out of the way has given NSW voters a chance to vent their spleen on the ALP at a state level, but the efforts of the Coalition and their cheersquad in the Murdoch Circus to talk up the ‘Carbon Tax Revolt’ as a significant issue in the state poll is utter nonsense.

    As the reality of the cuts to State Public Services inherent in any Coalition Government’s policies starts to dawn on Victorian and NSW voters over the coming months, we can expect to see a continuing trend away from the Coalition at the Federal level, especially as Abbott’s reactionary lurch to the lunar right continues, and the Government has now found it’s policy feet and will continue to implement legislation, including the Carbon Tax and the MRRT, when the new Senate is in place.

    Roll on July 1st …

  3. Windsor: I think the NBN is potentially the greatest piece of infrastructure for regional Australia this century. The coalition’s behaviour has trivialised its importance.

  4. Now Tony Windsor is giving the NBN a big roost.
    Cannot believe that any member that purports to represent the country could vote against the NBN.

  5. Windsor: Points out the incredible social benefits of NBN technology allowing regional members to stay in their own homes because medical opportunities offered as a result of NBN.

  6. Windsor now giving the NBN a huge rave review in a serious speech.

    [“The one piece of infrastructure that [helps country Australia]”]

    Defending the lack of detail in cost-benefit analysis: very difficult as some of the technology hasn’t even been invented yet.

  7. Oakeshott has not convinced my friends in Wauchope.

    They are still saying they won’t have the NBN even if it’s free.

  8. Interesting that Albanese supports uniform pricing (though not the opp. amendment) whereas in the Senate it was like pulling teeth for Joyce and Macdonald to get Conroy to say anything clear and simple on the subject.

  9. Re the Greens and carbon tax: we’re talking about a sample of 100 people here. It’s almost certainly statistical noise.]

    William – it may be statistical noise for those in the know but Speers on Sky is and will make a lot of it.

  10. i have suddnely worked it out,

    if you say at the next election we will have every one connected in another two few years. Abbott would not be popular if he pulled the pin and the whole country didnt have the nbn

  11. i have suddnely worked it out,

    if you say at the next election we will have every one connected in another two few years. Abbott would not be popular if he pulled the pin and the whole country didnt have the nbn

  12. Bushfire,

    Good luck to them – I suppose they will be happy to not have a landline as well, seeing as the telephone system will piggy back in on the NBN.

  13. BB

    i would say”O so your not keeping the ‘telephone one then”
    O how thats they say” well the fibre optic cable is also for the telephone the old copper stuff is nearly worn out.”

    or o dear that means your son and daughtes may fail there exams well the other children will be so far in front as they dont have to wait hours for their down load, o well poor kid sad that.

  14. Katter:

    [We’ve got a deal for rural Australia]

    in support of the NBN, castigating (loudly, shouting actually) the Coalition for “waiting for science fiction technology” to come about to make the speed of light (presumably) slower.

    Wow! The government has the Indies right on side. Good on you Julia!

  15. Danny Lewis @ 43

    Thanks for that detail. It confirms my feeling that “Greens” no longer represents the environmental movement, as it did a long time ago. Also explains varying opinions on carbon etc.

  16. [Bushfire,

    Good luck to them – I suppose they will be happy to not have a landline as well, seeing as the telephone system will piggy back in on the NBN.]

    I’ve tried to explain that to them. They think the loss of the copper network is another socialist plot.

  17. Am able to watch A-PAC again.

    Glad I did not miss what I just saw from Katter.

    I did not expect Katter to give the nationals and Libs a serve. Well I’ll be!

  18. The strength with which the Indies are repudiating the Opposition’s stance on the NBN should frighten the crap out of Abbott.

  19. Wow Bob Katter really got stuck in to the Opposition then. Relating the advent of the telephone and Chifley’s part in it to the NBN was good.

    Bob was really steamed up and rightly so.

  20. gee i emailed that to Mr Windsor months ago.

    because it is true phone calls will get more expensive, you can shop on line, will be able to talk to your dr. on line, no matter where you live, even if you live 2ks from the gp
    or 2000 , you could organize meals on wheels, and from a private company they do exist your know here they are called mums meals.
    I use to have to ring through a weekly menu for my mother in law.

    and also keep your sainty becauce of places like this.

    chat to friends on chat lines see your grandchildren on line, play bingo i bet

  21. Oakeshott calling the member for Cowper a hypocrit for his inconsistency in his electorate and then coming to Canberra to bag it.

  22. Looks like the Indies are going to trash the nats & libs! (Just as they were being trashed.) All three are questioning their integrity, by being inconsistent.

    Hipocracy, shameless … good words in this context!

  23. Opposition hypocrisy exposed by Oakeshott: Won’t support the NBN on the grounds of cost, but has moved an amendment that will cost more.

  24. Oakshotte makes it a full house. The indies calling the opposition’s bluff. Oakshotte asks why propose changes if you really oppose the whole thing. Calls them hypocrites.
    Seems like the deatknell for the opposition’s silly games.

  25. Oakeshott:

    [“Why on earth wasn’t this done before?”]

    Can’t believe the Opposition is against the NBN.

    Takes credit (along with other Independents) for uniform national pricing. Could only be achieved under a tied parliament.

  26. The question on the form of compensation required is somewhat misleading. It starts by stating that the govt will use funds raised to compensate households affected by price increases, leading one to conclude that *all* households will be compensated. I was under the impression this was not the case: that high income households for eg will not be compensated.

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