Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

For the second week in a row Essential Research has Labor clawing back a point on two-party preferred, from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes however are little changed: Labor up a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens on 10 per cent. However, a question on the government’s carbon pricing announcement find greater opposition than a fortnight ago, with 34 per cent support (down four) and 51 per cent opposition (up two). Forty per cent believe an early election should be called over the tax – mostly Coalition supporters, many of whom were keen on a new election to begin with – with 44 per cent opposed. A question on preferred form of compensation has 39 per cent favouring direct payment, 33 per cent an income tax cut and 13 per cent and cut to the GST rate.

More happy polling for Kevin Rudd, whose performance as Foreign Minister has 61 per cent approval and 19 per cent disapproval. Fifty-seven per cent approve his intervention in Libya, with only 22 per cent disapproving. There is also a question on the importance of Australia’s relationship with various countries, in which every single country has had an increase on “very important” since the question was previously asked in mid-November. New Zealand and Japan in particular appear to have recorded sympathy votes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [I’ve tried to explain that to them. They think the loss of the copper network is another socialist plot]

    poor ignorant people dont you feel sorry for them

    its only becuase it s not Johhny who organised it.

    Ask them BB ‘ Now if it was Mr. Howard who was installing this wonderful invention would you have it” see what they say.

    get back to us make an excuse to ask them i am betting you they would say.

    ahahaha umumum may be ahah dont know and leave the room just like tone

  2. [NBN is a $50 billion white elephant]

    quick sk tweet him

    you will know what to say,

    so we can take the member for kooyong will not be par taking of the this fast facility then,.
    ]

  3. [Oakeshott has not convinced my friends in Wauchope.

    They are still saying they won’t have the NBN even if it’s free.]

    Welcome to National Party heartland on the Mid North Coast BB.

    A diehard told me yesterday that computers and mobile phones are evil because they enable people to find information they don’t need. NBN is a waste of money, old school halls were good enough for him, CC is a conspiracy, change is unnecessary and bring back John Howard.

    And … Joh BjelkeP would be very proud of Barnaby Joyce!!

  4. John Robertson has just put up his hand for the Labor leadership in New South Wales.
    I agree with Morris Iemma: Robbo isn’t the man to begin the urgent reconstruction of Labor – he’s too complicit in what went wrong since 2007.
    A great pity that Carmel Tebutt isn’t interested – she or Michael Daley would be my picks.

  5. and also lots of other things i would say, that have even yet been put up policy

    better health better school better roads. ect.

    and bigger pensions

  6. [The MOE for a sample of 100 polling at 78% is 8% so it is much more than the MOE. Is the question the same as the previous one?]

    Okay, my bad. Oddly, the wording of this particular question is not provided, like it usually is, which looks to me like an oversight. In any event, I simply don’t believe that a third of Greens voters have changed their minds about this over the past fortnight.

  7. [Like I said, while Tone is promising to get rid of the NBN, the indies are going no where]

    The Libs and their shock jock mates think Oakeshot is the weak link, so prepare for a lot of pressure to be placed on him to change sides over the next few months.

  8. BH: all that confirms is that there are a *whole lot* of people in Australia who would fail if we had an “election test” in the same way we have a driving test.

    Only those who understand enough to pass should be able to vote …

  9. [I’ve tried to explain that to them. They think the loss of the copper network is another socialist plot.]

    No offence BB, but you really seem to have a lot of idiot friends. Each week it seems to be another story about how so and so thinks Julia is the devil and the ALP is destroying the country. A bit of advice… seek new friends.

  10. Oakeshott, Windsor and Katter would have also been mightliy pissed off with Turnbull and Co, for lying about their amendments.

    Oakeshott earlier said he was considering one of the amendments, but later after they all met with Stephen Conroy and found out they had been lied to they are very angry.

  11. Dee @ 11

    [Mungo MacCallum: If a man is known by the company he keeps Tony Abbott is is raving, bigoted, ignorant ratbag]

    http://bit.ly/em2Rt9

    Good, old Mungo.

    It’s great to see the grand old man still has the fire in his belly, and we could do with many more with his journalistic experience, skill and training to balance up the conservative bias of our current degenerate media pack. Along with Alan Ramsay and Peter Bowers, these old school professionals were prepared to take an objective stand against what they considered bad policy, or poor form by politicians from either political party, and they were backed up in their independence by their editors.

    Now we have the cynical and underhanded spectacle, confirmed by the Murdoch informer, Bruce Guthrie, of today’s news editors not even having to put pressure on supine journalists to write articles and opinions that conform to the octogenerian proprietors known political leanings and affilliations, as they self-censor themselves because they know they will be out of a job if they do not toe the approved line, whether it be anti-NBN, anti-Carbon Tax, anti-MRRT or just plain old anti-Gillard.

    The same applies to the debased ABC, except that the influence and pressure comes from Managing Director, Mark Scott and his fifth column of conservative stooges who have penetrated to all levels of the national broadcaster’s news and current affairs service.

    There remains only a handful of old timers like Mungo to keep the dream alive.

  12. [In any event, I simply don’t believe that a third of Greens voters have changed their minds about this over the past fortnight.]

    I’ll bet you the MSM will (or at least pretend to) 😉

  13. [Oakeshott earlier said he was considering one of the amendments, but later after they all met with Stephen Conroy and found out they had been lied to they are very angry.]

    Libs lying about the NBN? Never!

  14. [ Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    @ @AndrewCatsaras Windsor has repeatedly alluded to Malcolm not appearing to believe in the shit sandwich Abbott gave him to sell
    2 minutes ago Favorite Undo Retweet Reply]

  15. [That is a shame, but not unexpected. Has anyone else nominated?]

    No, not as yet!
    Daley apparently was talking with his family over the weekend, so maybe he’ll be a candidate too(Bob Carr’s preferred candidate too, so I’ve been told).

  16. Electing Robertson is labor’s way of telling the electorate they can go f…. themselves ….

    Nathan Rees now seems to be 647 votes ahead (I think).

  17. [In any event, I simply don’t believe that a third of Greens voters have changed their minds about this over the past fortnight.]

    Walk with me towards the light, William.

  18. Why would such a significant proportion of Greens voters change their minds on a carbon price? In two weeks?

    Were they swayed by the revolting peoples parade?

  19. [Libs lying about the NBN? Never!]

    Absolutely. The funny thing was that while Conroy was explaining Turnbull’s amendments to the indies, Pyne gets up and starts complaining about filibustering. This after what they have been doing all monring.

  20. [POLLYTICS | 22 seconds ago
    Turnbull’s amendment is silly because it makes the assumption that the technological development of 3 separate technologies will be uniform]

  21. [No offence BB, but you really seem to have a lot of idiot friends. Each week it seems to be another story about how so and so thinks Julia is the devil and the ALP is destroying the country. A bit of advice… seek new friends.]

    Oh, I’ve got plenty of friends who agree with me, but there’s a smattering of hard cases I maintain to keep my hand in (so to speak).

  22. [POLLYTICS |
    One might think that all this praise Windsor is giving to Malcolm on multiple topics is his contribution to getting rid of Tone

    POLLYTICS | 1 minute ago
    Alternatively, if the assumption is that they arent uniform, then it’s a brazen attempt to crash the balance sheet of the NBN]

  23. If the Liberals ditched Phoney as leader & replaced him with Hockey or Turnball, then ironically they’d have more chance of getting one or more independents to change sides! 😉

  24. BB @ 87

    [I’ve tried to explain that to them. They think the loss of the copper network is another socialist plot.]

    It sounds like your friends in Wauchope might not be the most progressive, or enlightened citizens of the realm …

  25. My beloved member Luke Hartsuyker, I have never seen such a miserable looking person, he was the one who had to withdraw the comment about Julia Gillard last week.
    Wish I could be in RO electorate like I was a few years ago

  26. Dave i watched the video, did you see a man to the right of the screen i went back had another look and paused.

    it as though he had no idea what was coming truly awful

  27. AndrewCatsaras Andrew Catsaras
    @latingle ABC election page says Pauline Hanson will win upper house seat Antony Green says Greens will haul her in on prefs

    If that happens it would be worse than Fielding imho.

  28. [Monday, March 28, 2011 at 5:44 pm | Permalink
    If the Liberals ditched Phoney as leader & replaced him with Hockey or Turnball, then ironically they’d have more chance of getting one or more independents to change sides!]

    you know i dont think so i think they are all men of their word.

    i hope you all take the chance to listen to conversations replay to day and listen to andrew wilkie the bit liked the most was on afaganstan and iraq ect and the libs.

    very intereting

  29. Rudd & Bowen are off to the Bali Summit tonight – some sort of announcement or agreement with the Indonesians on regional processing of asylum seekers would be welcome. 🙂

  30. [r Michael Daley ]

    Evan – I heard Daley with Laws a couple of weeks ago. He was absolutely woeful. I’d not really seen much of him but on that performance, as a Labor member, I was embarrassed to acknowledge him.

    He sounded an absolute dud. Laws ridiculed him which means nothing to me but my OH did also and that did worry me.

  31. BH @ 90

    [Wow Bob Katter really got stuck in to the Opposition then. Relating the advent of the telephone and Chifley’s part in it to the NBN was good.

    Bob was really steamed up and rightly so.]

    Bob Katter might be a protectionist populist with some weird conspiracist leanings, but on the NBN, he is rock solid, and has been since the get-go.

    On the day after the election Bob gave a gushing interview in praise of the NBN, describing it as a policy initiative vital to the continued wellbeing and progress of rural and regional Australia, and at the time it sounds very much like he was going to come down on the side of supporting the ALP Government, as eventually did his independent colleagues, Windsor and Oakeshott. Unfortunately, Bob went off the reservation sometime afterwards, ranting at the top of his voice about Kevin Rudd, and how if he’d still been PM, he would have supported the ALP, but couldn’t do so because of their support for deregulation, free trade, and lack of support for a variety of Bob’s pet projects like ethanol subsidies and his hatred of the Coles/Wollies duopoly.

    Katter is definitely out there – after all, who would admit to throwing eggs at The Beatles in 1964 because of an ‘intellectual reaction against Bealtlemania?”

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