Newspoll quarterly breakdown: February-March

The Australian has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of its federal polling data, compiling the results of the four polls it has published this year (it took January off). The national figures are therefore no surprise to us, as they are merely an average of this year’s polling: Labor on 34 per cent of the primary vote compared with 38.0 per cent at the election, the Coalition on 42 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent compared with 11.8 per cent (remembering that phone pollsters seemed to have acquired a tendency to overrate the Greens and underrate Labor). The Coalition holds a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50.1-49.9 to Labor at the election.

The real interest in the figures is in the various breakdowns offered, particularly by state. The most distinctive result on voting intention is the solid recovery for Labor in Western Australia, from a dismal base of 43.6 per cent at the federal election to 45 per cent in October-December 2010 to 48 per cent this time. A Labor hike in Queensland from 44.9 per cent at the election to 48 per cent late last year looked rather too much at the time, and sure enough the latest poll has it moderating to 46 per cent. Labor’s decline overall has been driven by NSW/ACT, from 49.5 per cent two-party at the election to 48 per cent in both quarters, and Victoria, from 55.3 per cent at the election to 55 per cent to 53 per cent. In South Australia, where Labor has nothing in the way of tight marginals, they have gone from 53.2 per cent at the election to 51 per cent and 52 per cent.

If such swings were uniform, the Coalition would gain Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay and possibly Banks in New South Wales, plus Corangamite and La Trobe (but not quite Deakin) in Victoria. Labor would gain Hasluck, Canning and Swan in Western Australia, and Brisbane in Queensland. Other things being equal, and leaving Banks with Labor, there would be a net shift of one seat in the Coalition’s direction: from 73 Coalition and 72 Labor to 74 and 71. This of course makes the notably unsafe assumption that all sitting cross-benchers would be re-elected. Furthermore, the capitals and non-capitals breakdowns suggest it would be worse for Labor than that. In the metropolitan areas which are home to most of the marginal seats, the two-party vote is at 50-50 compared with 52.5-47.5 in Labor’s favour at the election. In the non-capitals Labor has gained ground, now trailing 52-48 rather than 53.4-46.6.

On personal ratings, the most interesting finding is that both leaders have soured among the 50-plus age group. The results for Tony Abbott defy some of the stereotypes about his support base: his 52 per cent disapproval among the 50-plus is the highest of any age group, and a once substantially higher approval rating among this cohort has fallen right back to the field. He has also lost ground among 35-49s, as has the Coalition on the primary vote. Gillard is down four points on approval and up five on disapproval among the 50-plus, a situation which is reversed among the 18-34s, now clearly her best cohort.

New South Wales and Queensland are about equal as Julia Gillard’s worst state, owing to a post-election recovery in Queensland. Victoria and South Australia are roughly equal as her best (although her disapproval is up in South Australia), with Western Australia surprisingly close behind. Tony Abbott’s ratings have been consistently mediocre in New South Wales and Victoria and consistently neutral in Queensland, but he has weakened considerably in South Australia and Western Australia: from net neutral to minus 14 and minus 12. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is only six points in Queensland, elsewhere ranging from 15 points in New South Wales to 23 points in Victoria. Gender splits lean in the expected directions, though not as heavily as you would think. An exception is disapproval of Gillard, with women notably more reluctant to give her the thumbs down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,128 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown: February-March”

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  1. [Gary,

    I’m no friend of the Liberals, but a few days out from an election, I think you can cut O’Farrell a bit of slack!]
    I’m no friend of the Libs either but Baillieu, with a slim majority, gave up the campaigning very quickly.

  2. [In a previous interview Ulhmann let Abbott claim NZ had no recession because of the GFC. Abbott handed Ulhmann a great “gotchya” and he completely missed it.]

    Uhlmann behaves in these interviews with Abbott like a ‘star struck acolyte standing at the feet of some charismatic religious evangelist’. His eyes are glazed and he has this benign smile that says he feels honoured to be able to help transmit his leader’s words.

    Vomit inducing.

  3. Gary

    Ballieu hardly campaigned to start with really. But I do not recall journos here in Victoria giving Ballieu any aggressive questioning whatsoever, and he only won with a one seat majority. Very interesting to see the difference. I suspect NSW will not be patient somehow.

  4. jenauthor

    You are right. It is frankly quite disturbing. Even the journos in the OZ and Sky were critical of Abbott fronting that rally. Toolman on the other hand? Very disturbing indeed.

  5. Burgey,

    [Keating on 7.30 tonight… froffin’ for it. ]

    Somehow I don’t think Robbo will be watching.

    I bet PJK has a few comments to make about him especially. 😉

  6. victoria@102

    BK#99

    I agree. Don’t know who this Senator is and from which party, but he is holding his own.

    Richard Colbeck (Lib, Tas) according to the super they put up, but his hair is a lot greyer than his official photo.

  7. BOF did the usual first day rant — ‘there’s a black hole’.

    This is the way to prime the electorate that promises must be broken because they won’t have enough money.

    It is simply S.O.B.

    As with most state govts, the election sweeteners were simply that. They have no excuse a hostile senate won’t be able to hold up their agenda, such as it is (or isn’t) therefore they will come undone very quickly IMHO.

  8. Thanks Shifty. I had trawled through all the Senator home page photos but you’d never pick it.
    As a Liberal he is showing up his Coalition colleagues as incompetents.

  9. jenauthor

    I was quite surprised by his aggression and also the aggression of the journos at his presser. He won in a landslide. Did not look like it at that press conference.
    Seems everyone is angry? Am I reading the NSW mood right?

  10. [Uhlmann behaves in these interviews with Abbott like a ‘star struck acolyte standing at the feet of some charismatic religious evangelist’.]

    Yes, that’s my impression too.

    It’s why I don’t believe Uhlmann has the professionalism needed to co-host an allegedly serious current affairs show on our public broadcaster. He belongs with Karl on the Today Show.

  11. [

    jenauthor

    it would appear from this website that the no carbon rally is still taking place on Saturday the 2nd April at 10.30 a.m at Hyde Park.]

    They emailed me last week to turn saying up at 11 am Victoria. At that stage they’d had about 1000 rsvps (within a couple of hours)

    I’ll be there with bells on and camera at the ready. At the back of the station, there is a balcony/walkway that overlooks the park — it’ll be a great place to get shots of the size of the crowd.

  12. It seems that that senator has been identified, but it should not be as difficult as it is to find out. I’m forever frustrated by the lack of information on the parliament house website. This is what it has for this committee, which appears to have only about half a dozen members in today’s proceedings.

    [Economics—References Committee

    Members
    Senator Eggleston (Chair), Senator Hurley (Deputy Chair) and Senators Bushby, McGauran, Pratt and Xenophon

    Subcommittee Members
    Senator Bushby (Chair), Senator Hurley (Deputy Chair) and Senators Eggleston, McGauran, Pratt and Xenophon

    Substitute Member
    Senator O’Brien to replace Senator Pratt for the committee’s inquiry into the impacts of supermarket price decisions on the dairy industry

    Participating members
    Senators Abetz, Adams, Back, Barnett, Bernardi, Bilyk Birmingham, Bishop, Boswell, Boyce, Brandis, Bob Brown, Carol Brown, Cameron, Cash, Colbeck, Coonan, Cormann, Crossin, Faulkner, Ferguson, Fierravanti-Wells, Fielding, Fifield, Fisher, Forshaw, Furner, Hanson-Young, Heffernan, Humphries, Hutchins, Johnston, Joyce, Kroger, Ludlam, Macdonald, McEwen, Marshall, Mason, Milne, Minchin, Moore, Nash, O’Brien, Parry, Payne, Polley, Pratt, Ronaldson, Ryan, Scullion, Siewert, Stephens, Sterle, Troeth, Trood, Williams and Wortley]

    Completely useless.

  13. jenauthor

    sorry to confuse you. Not talking about our rally pro carbon at 11.00 at Belmore. The anti mob that was in Canberra last week, are now having their rally at Hyde Park on Saturday.

  14. [Am I reading the NSW mood right?]

    Have no idea what the mood is like (was at a conference all weekend — and state govts are neither here nor there with me). I honestly don’t care who is in power except for what effect it has on federal labor.

    Hopefully, now, Julia will get some clear air because NSW Labor (and its supposed power brokers) will drop off the federal radar. BoF’s claims that he’ll stop/fight the carbon tax etc etc is just hot air and he knows it. Same as his railing against the health package. No premier in his right mind is going to say no to quality health funding just to please his federal counterpart. If he does, he is more stupid than I thought (and I already think he is fairly stupid).

  15. @ Victoria

    [Dear Paul,
    Thank you for RSVPing to the climate event next Saturday the 2nd of April.

    Here are the details of the event:

    When: Next Saturday 2nd of April
    Where: Belmore Park
    Time:11am.]

    Looks like the rallys will clash on Saturday

    cheers

  16. [sorry to confuse you. Not talking about our rally pro carbon at 11.00 at Belmore. The anti mob that was in Canberra last week, are now having their rally at Hyde Park on Saturday.]

    Won’t be going to that one. Should have kept my mouth shut about the lack of space at the town hall, shouldn’t I?

    Maybe the pro rally can march to Hyde park, and surround the tossers, and out ‘rally’ them.

  17. I have just sent this email to Sen Colebeck.
    [Good afternoon Senator.

    I am watching you at the moment and, as a Labor voter, I must say how impressed I am with your contribution and the way in which you approached it. Your thoroughness and bearing, if I may say it, were refreshing and frankly puts to shame the performance and “presence” of many of your Coalition colleagues.
    It is always good to see the arrival of people of merit and I wish you every spersonal success.
    Kind regards.]

  18. [how long will the honeymoon last?]

    I’ve asked this previously. My view is not long, and that expectations will be high.

    Interestingly on Paul Murray last night, the seeds were already beginning to be planted to try to temper the public expectation: Murray saying things won’t happen overnight, they’ll take time to sort out Labor’s mess, and surprisingly of all that the new govt might even have to borrow money to fix infrastructure!

    Amazing that these guys can thump federal Labor for Debt!, Waste! and so on, yet be oh so accommodating when it’s the Liberals.

  19. jenauthor,

    Maybe the pro rally can march to Hyde park, and surround the tossers, and out ‘rally’ them.

    Good idea, but I don’t reckon that the police would let that happen!

    Barring the unforeseen, I’ll be taking the train down to the Belmore Park rally too.

    If you’re going to be on the walkway taking pictures, I’ll make sure that I keep my best side facing that way.

  20. I’m actually on-call for my work this week but hopefully I’ll still be able to attend the pro-carbon-price rally on Saturday.

  21. Thanks for the link mari. My contribution follows.
    [The 7:30 time slot on the ABC once was sacred and much looked forward to. It was usually strong and ran stories of reasonable importance.
    Now it is so shallow and runs lightweight stories that it might be considered to be of the same ilk as what has been playing on Channels 7 and 9 at 6:30.
    Also Chris Uhlman has been a singular failure whose softness was exemplified spectacularly in his recent interview with Tony Abbott. It was so tame that Abbott may even reappear.]

  22. woo-hoo,
    Pb’ers at the pro-carbon rallies. Go for it guys/gals! Is there going to be one in Adelaide or are we too relaxed for all that? But there is this Vic/SA rivalry, so if the Vics can come up with 80 revolting people, that magically turns into 400, I am sure we can find 81 that can magically turn into 405. 😆

  23. [If you’re going to be on the walkway taking pictures, I’ll make sure that I keep my best side facing that way.]

    🙂

  24. BK 134
    Really good, my last little spiel was suggesting he go back and learn how to count after his effort of several thousand people at the Anti carbon rally in Canberra

  25. [BK

    I have switched over to Wilkie. How are they going over at Senates Committee?]
    vic
    Still going strong. The Coalition Senators are doing well.

  26. I think the reason all these senators are really doing ‘it’ is because this is not a political issue — therefore they can all be honest.

  27. Richard Colebeck has just emailed back to me from the Hearing.
    [Afternoon xxx,

    Thanks for your email and sentiments, very much appreciated.

    Regards

    Richard]

  28. ABC24 is pathetic. They are having sound problems at Wilkie’s NPC address, so they have now left it.
    Sky are waiting for Ponting announcement.

  29. I don’t see what all the fuss is about Tone attending anti CT rallies? That;s their “policy” isn’t it?

    So to be fair then no Labor pollie should be allowed to turn up at Belmore?

    Have I got that right? 😉

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