Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research survey finds Labor copping a forceful backlash from the carbon tax, with the two-party vote flipping from 51-49 in favour of Labor to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition – a very sharp turnaround given that a) Essential is a two week rolling average, so half the sample is that which contributed to Labor’s strong result last time, and b) even a part of the more recent week’s sample was surveyed before the tax was announced. The major parties have swapped two points on the primary vote, with Labor down to 37 per cent and the Coalition up to 45 per cent, while the Greens are down a point to 10 per cent. Respondents to this week’s segment of the survey were also asked to nominate their preferred Liberal leader, and contrary to the recent Morgan poll it had Tony Abbott in front with 24 per cent against 18 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 16 per cent for Joe Hockey.

The remainder of the survey was dominated by a complex exercise to gauge attitudes to religion and multiculturalism. Fifty-seven per cent of respondents initially professed themselves “concerned” about the number of Muslims in Australia, while only 38 per cent were not concerned. They were then asked to estimate the number of Muslims in Australia (perhaps a problematic exercise in a poll conduct online, where participants have Google close at hand). Logically enough, concern was found to be associated with the size of the estimate. Sixty-five percentage had the number too high (it’s 1.7 per cent). When the real figure was pointed out to them, the number of concerned moderated to 50 per cent, and the not concerned rose to 45 per cent.

In other questions, 57 per cent rated the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive against 29 per cent negative; 65 per cent opposed rejecting prospective immigrants on the basis of religion, while 19 per cent were supportive; and 61 per cent agreed that “some politicians raise issues of race and religion for political purposes just to generate votes”, with only 27 per cent believing “these politicians” (who ever could they mean?) were “genuinely concerned about Australia’s future”.

UPDATE: Essential has issued an explanatory statement regarding the questions on Muslim immigrants, evidently anticipating criticism that its approach amounts to a political statement. Results from a further question on Muslim immigrants will be unveiled on Channel Ten this evening.

This week we take the unusual step of providing a justification for the questions we have asked in the Essential Report.

Two things that drive our research and communications practice are – really understanding how people feel and finding communications solutions to problems.

This week we have asked a series of questions about Australia’s attitude to multiculturalism and Muslims in particular. We debated whether it was worth giving voice to some of the attitudes we might find. But we also wanted to show how research can find different responses on a range of issues, and how politicians make choices about the attitudes they wish to promote, provoke, perpetuate or even prevent.

We also wanted to show how simple bits of information can change people’s attitudes and responses. For too long some conservative politicians have been running agendas that purport to directly reference the community’s fear or anxiety, but because the polling has remained hidden in a desk drawer they have been able to claim they are merely debating an issue.

This small poll shows the choices politicians can make in discussion and leading an issue.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,132 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  5. [I believe he inferred he was not getting the protection of the Chair and said so. I suspect that is what has upset the Libs and Nats.]

    thanks dave – I did hear him say something about the chair siding with the Oppn.

  8. Bushfire Bill, you don’t qualify as another Ann of WA unless every second word is left in lower case …

    I only relised after I’d typed it and I didn’t want to give Poll Bludger flibbertygibbets a chance to get interested in something else.

  9. vp

    Dog! Another senior moment. Of course McMullen was the member for Fraser. He was a Senator at one time though, wasn’t he?

  11. Regarding teh question of ‘outlier’ and not sensing rage on this issue. my take on this issue is that agreeing with CC has become such an orthodox view that the majority those who do not believe actually keep it too themselves.. but are happy to say what they think in anonymous poll. just my thoughts on it.

  21. [Barnyard is on; that the end of all reason. “Ms Gillard”? It is Prime Minister Gillard, you rude slug .]
    They simply don’t accept that a government has been duly formed and it’s somebody else.

  23. [Regarding teh question of ‘outlier’ and not sensing rage on this issue. my take on this issue is that agreeing with CC has become such an orthodox view that the majority those who do not believe actually keep it too themselves.. but are happy to say what they think in anonymous poll. just my thoughts on it.]
    I think it shows there is still a lack of understanding out there and that a quick fear campaign as we’ve had makes a difference. The problem for the Libs is that when the carbon tax is introduced it will be seen that the fear campaign is toothless and that support will grow. Tone’s problem at the next election will be telling people he is going to take money off them and that he is going to risk their jobs. In other words the fear campaign will be on the other foot.

  24. It will be interesting on Agenda today — and proof of partisanship on SKYs part, if they report the Essential 2PP. Last week, when labor hot the front, there was not A WORD about Essential.

  25. Sorry I can’t listen to Joyce anymore. It would be more fun poking my eyes out with a burnt stick, so I’m off to do that.

  29. Given that the Carbon Price was announced by the MP Committee on Thursday afternoon, how much of an effect did it have on a poll that was mostly completed by Friday?

  30. Regarding these silly censure motions, which the Oppos bring on when they are being caned… Given that the Indies have voted with the government against the motions two QTs running, could one of them be prompted to move suspension of standing orders so that QT can proceed uninterrupted? I think Windsor, at least, would consider the censure motions an abuse of parliamentary procedure.

  33. middle man

    [agreeing with CC has become such an orthodox view that the majority those who do not believe actually keep it too themselves.. but are happy to say what they think in anonymous poll]

    This kind of statement results from the successful distortion of the subject by the deniers and the no-action group, who pretend that believing in CC is “religious”. That is one of the tragedies of the last decade.

  35. so true lizzie. as though CC is the only line of science requiring belief. all these nuclear proponents seem to ‘believe’ the scientists when they say its safe…. but ‘believe’ a climate change scientist?? no on your nelly! (and who the hell is nelly?)

  37. [Given that the Carbon Price was announced by the MP Committee on Thursday afternoon, how much of an effect did it have on a poll that was mostly completed by Friday?]
    I wondered that too. I think it is too soon to tell about attitudes on the carbon tax. Also the compensation to households needs to be clearly (and repeatedly!) explained. Then I will be concerned if polls are still low after that.

  44. [Given that the Carbon Price was announced by the MP Committee on Thursday afternoon, how much of an effect did it have on a poll that was mostly completed by Friday?]
    Oh, I didn’t realise that, mind you the papers were filled with wild assertions on Friday morning.

  46. When I worked with BHP, (pre billiton), for certain jobs you received a dirt money bonus. As I watch and listen to Joyce carrying on I wonder if that is why senators get the money they do. It is definitely not for intelligent discussion, nor is it for seeking the best for the country. Maybe it is for subjecting themselves to such abuse.

  48. [I think Windsor, at least, would consider the censure motions an abuse of parliamentary procedure.]
    I think that Windsor would recognise that it is one of the few avenues an opposition has in parliament to get some attention. He lived through years of Howard’s abuse of parliament and would be loathe to provide a prededent for further gagging of an opposition of the Libs get back in.

  50. [so true lizzie. as though CC is the only line of science requiring belief. all these nuclear proponents seem to ‘believe’ the scientists when they say its safe…. but ‘believe’ a climate change scientist?? no on your nelly! (and who the hell is nelly?)]
    Yes, very true middleman. I am a believer in several strands of science myself:
    – gravitationalist – I believe I will not fall off the earth
    – mathematical realist – I beleive one plus one is two; Barnaby is a heretic on this.
    – Archimedean – I believe water flows downhill, and things float in it.
    – sphericist – I cannot see it, but I believe the world is round. NP oppose this too.
    – electronicist – I believe when I turn the switch, light comes on. A miracle?

    But there is a lot of economic “science” I DON’T believe 🙂

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