Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research survey finds Labor copping a forceful backlash from the carbon tax, with the two-party vote flipping from 51-49 in favour of Labor to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition – a very sharp turnaround given that a) Essential is a two week rolling average, so half the sample is that which contributed to Labor’s strong result last time, and b) even a part of the more recent week’s sample was surveyed before the tax was announced. The major parties have swapped two points on the primary vote, with Labor down to 37 per cent and the Coalition up to 45 per cent, while the Greens are down a point to 10 per cent. Respondents to this week’s segment of the survey were also asked to nominate their preferred Liberal leader, and contrary to the recent Morgan poll it had Tony Abbott in front with 24 per cent against 18 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 16 per cent for Joe Hockey.

The remainder of the survey was dominated by a complex exercise to gauge attitudes to religion and multiculturalism. Fifty-seven per cent of respondents initially professed themselves “concerned” about the number of Muslims in Australia, while only 38 per cent were not concerned. They were then asked to estimate the number of Muslims in Australia (perhaps a problematic exercise in a poll conduct online, where participants have Google close at hand). Logically enough, concern was found to be associated with the size of the estimate. Sixty-five percentage had the number too high (it’s 1.7 per cent). When the real figure was pointed out to them, the number of concerned moderated to 50 per cent, and the not concerned rose to 45 per cent.

In other questions, 57 per cent rated the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive against 29 per cent negative; 65 per cent opposed rejecting prospective immigrants on the basis of religion, while 19 per cent were supportive; and 61 per cent agreed that “some politicians raise issues of race and religion for political purposes just to generate votes”, with only 27 per cent believing “these politicians” (who ever could they mean?) were “genuinely concerned about Australia’s future”.

UPDATE: Essential has issued an explanatory statement regarding the questions on Muslim immigrants, evidently anticipating criticism that its approach amounts to a political statement. Results from a further question on Muslim immigrants will be unveiled on Channel Ten this evening.

This week we take the unusual step of providing a justification for the questions we have asked in the Essential Report.

Two things that drive our research and communications practice are – really understanding how people feel and finding communications solutions to problems.

This week we have asked a series of questions about Australia’s attitude to multiculturalism and Muslims in particular. We debated whether it was worth giving voice to some of the attitudes we might find. But we also wanted to show how research can find different responses on a range of issues, and how politicians make choices about the attitudes they wish to promote, provoke, perpetuate or even prevent.

We also wanted to show how simple bits of information can change people’s attitudes and responses. For too long some conservative politicians have been running agendas that purport to directly reference the community’s fear or anxiety, but because the polling has remained hidden in a desk drawer they have been able to claim they are merely debating an issue.

This small poll shows the choices politicians can make in discussion and leading an issue.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,132 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. The Libs have gone too hard and too early.

    By the next election they’ll be effectively gagged by the fact that the govt will have moved on while the Coalition will still be standing in the corner, jumping up and down, bellowing “Look at me, Look at me!!”

    It is the bully’s MO. They have no substance to back up their noise. That is only effective for a very short while.

    I know it won’t happen — but can anyone imagine what they’d be like if the ALP were returned in NSW? The screeching of “We was robbed” would be heard on the moon.

    Funnily enough, I care so little about state politics, the idea that we’ll have a Lib govt in NSW hasn’t even raised my blood pressure a point. Whilst, at this stage of the federal run up, I was a basket case!

  3. The best part is that conservatives really do take themselves so seriously. They actually do think that we sit in our dingy houses wishing we were them and are plotting to take their wealth. It is excellent sport to play with them. They have so much but really in the end so little. Anyway. That is why I like to play politics. Is that wrong?

  6. Stanny makes a number of truthful observation, but I gather most blogs end up like that.

    Groups of defensive flag wavers cheering like pre-teens at one moment, attacking any hint of descent from their line at the next.

    It is often like an old fashioned melodrama where the ‘hero’ is given a rousing cheer on entrance and the ‘villain’ booed and fist shaken at the sky.

    Such behaviour seems to be the norm on political blogs.

  10. [6106

    Thomas Paine

    Posted Saturday, March 5, 2011 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    Stanny makes a number of truthful observation, but I gather most blogs end up like that.

    Groups of defensive flag wavers cheering like pre-teens at one moment, attacking any hint of descent from their line at the next.

    It is often like an old fashioned melodrama where the ‘hero’ is given a rousing cheer on entrance and the ‘villain’ booed and fist shaken at the sky.

    Such behaviour seems to be the norm on political blogs.
    ]

    Time for a new stylus – the current is wearing out your only copy of that cracked record.

  13. Just posted this to the Bob Brown Story you linked SK

    100$ it won’t be published.

    [Sorry but you are way off base.

    Abbott is not on a run to power. His loud bleating is symbolic of a desperate man who sees his dream fading. The more it fades, the louder he squeals. Come JUly, he’ll be a non-entity.

    Anyone who actually listens to the words of the right wing pollies will hear only generalisations and derogatory key words. No policy. No homework. No detailed study of the real issues. And, of course, the extremely rude habit of talking over their adversaries in order to drown out common sense with antagonistic drivel.

    In a school it’d be called bullying. I just think it is completely lacking in manners.

    If you listen, really listen, to the Prime Minister and her ministers or the cross-benchers, you will hear detailed, eloquent words, detailed policies that make sense, policies to benefit the larger portion of our community.

    Yet still we have a docile press who refuse to actually endorse common sense — instead they prop up a vacuous, empty vessel, who is more interested in hearing the sound of his own voice than formulate policies to the benefit of the country he wants so desperately to ‘rule’.]

  15. Just catching up with lateline, they are quoting Greg Hunt as a Climate Change expert. WTF? The man is a moron and the line he is taking in parliament is in direct contravention to his thesis. But hey, another case of don’t let facts get in the way of a good story.

  16. [It is often like an old fashioned melodrama where the ‘hero’ is given a rousing cheer on entrance and the ‘villain’ booed and fist shaken at the sky.]

    TP

    Pardon me saying this — but the above sounds amazingly like your attitude with regards to Rudd & Gillard.

  17. jen -excellent.

    On a previous topic I, and my family are avid Phryne Fisher fans. If people like crime fiction with a socialist Melbourne flavour may I suggest you check out Kerry Greenwood. Agatha Christie with an Oz twist. I read her on plane flights. And when I am on holiday. She can always make me smile and the historical detail is excellent!

  18. [6116

    jenauthor

    Posted Saturday, March 5, 2011 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    It is often like an old fashioned melodrama where the ‘hero’ is given a rousing cheer on entrance and the ‘villain’ booed and fist shaken at the sky.

    TP

    Pardon me saying this — but the above sounds amazingly like your attitude with regards to Rudd & Gillard.
    ]

    In other words TP has kicked an own goal 🙂

  20. [On a previous topic I, and my family are avid Phryne Fisher fans. If people like crime fiction with a socialist Melbourne flavour may I suggest you check out Kerry Greenwood. Agatha Christie with an Oz twist. I]

    Thanks for the tip — I make certain that when I am writing, that I read a completely different genre, so I am not tempted to subconsciously plagiarise (very easy to do!!!)

  21. Since it is nearly 1 am here — am off to the land of nod.

    Thanks for the chat guys — stimulating as ever!

    And thanks William if you’re still up and about — having a forum like this tends to make one feel a tad less powerless and isolated.

  25. With a working Air-Con – blocked pipe cleared and slightly cooler weather, my energy levels are almost back to normal – so I can pull an all nighter to listen to my Facebook Friend’s radio show from 2am EST on Inner FM Melbourne called Dead Air – which can be heard via the web at http://www.innerfm.org.au.

  27. Labor and Euthenasia
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    If this report is true Gillard had knuckled under to the Right(largely Catholic right)in the ALP on the subject of Euthenasia.
    On this the progressive policy has been left to the Greens to take up!

    I am one of those former ALP voters who has voted for the Greens on this policy alone..as have others I know…
    ..and it’s the sort of issue where Gillard will leave the field to the Greens,because Labor is really in the grip of religious groups who want to impose their views on EVERYONE…not just Christians…and religious people cannot help them selVes from forcing their irrational views on others…it goes with the territory.!
    .
    Gillard will be in line with Pell and Opus Dei and that whole crowd of AYATOLLAHS..might even sing a chorus or two at Hillsong given the chance !

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-brawl-over-euthanasia/story-fn59niix-1226016137288

  30. [the local wogs do like him William (why did you drop the word like when quoting)]

    I was typing it into my phone, and evidently made an oversight. If you believe this is significant, you are mistaken.

    [what is your issue with that?]

    That only a moron would say such a thing.

    [Do you live in the electorate?]

    Er … no.

    [Care to retract your statement William?]

    Of course not. Indeed, I care to reiterate it.

  31. [William Bowe

    Posted Saturday, March 5, 2011 at 2:17 am | Permalink

    the local wogs do like him William (why did you drop the word like when quoting)

    I was typing it into my phone, and evidently made an oversight. If you believe this is significant, you are mistaken.

    what is your issue with that?

    That only a moron would say such a thing.

    Do you live in the electorate?

    Er … no.

    Care to retract your statement William?

    Of course not. Indeed, I care to reiterate it.
    ]

    Do not underestimate the Wog vote – Morley in 2008 is a prime example. Also in Bunbury with John Castrilli.

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