Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research survey finds Labor copping a forceful backlash from the carbon tax, with the two-party vote flipping from 51-49 in favour of Labor to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition – a very sharp turnaround given that a) Essential is a two week rolling average, so half the sample is that which contributed to Labor’s strong result last time, and b) even a part of the more recent week’s sample was surveyed before the tax was announced. The major parties have swapped two points on the primary vote, with Labor down to 37 per cent and the Coalition up to 45 per cent, while the Greens are down a point to 10 per cent. Respondents to this week’s segment of the survey were also asked to nominate their preferred Liberal leader, and contrary to the recent Morgan poll it had Tony Abbott in front with 24 per cent against 18 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 16 per cent for Joe Hockey.

The remainder of the survey was dominated by a complex exercise to gauge attitudes to religion and multiculturalism. Fifty-seven per cent of respondents initially professed themselves “concerned” about the number of Muslims in Australia, while only 38 per cent were not concerned. They were then asked to estimate the number of Muslims in Australia (perhaps a problematic exercise in a poll conduct online, where participants have Google close at hand). Logically enough, concern was found to be associated with the size of the estimate. Sixty-five percentage had the number too high (it’s 1.7 per cent). When the real figure was pointed out to them, the number of concerned moderated to 50 per cent, and the not concerned rose to 45 per cent.

In other questions, 57 per cent rated the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive against 29 per cent negative; 65 per cent opposed rejecting prospective immigrants on the basis of religion, while 19 per cent were supportive; and 61 per cent agreed that “some politicians raise issues of race and religion for political purposes just to generate votes”, with only 27 per cent believing “these politicians” (who ever could they mean?) were “genuinely concerned about Australia’s future”.

UPDATE: Essential has issued an explanatory statement regarding the questions on Muslim immigrants, evidently anticipating criticism that its approach amounts to a political statement. Results from a further question on Muslim immigrants will be unveiled on Channel Ten this evening.

This week we take the unusual step of providing a justification for the questions we have asked in the Essential Report.

Two things that drive our research and communications practice are – really understanding how people feel and finding communications solutions to problems.

This week we have asked a series of questions about Australia’s attitude to multiculturalism and Muslims in particular. We debated whether it was worth giving voice to some of the attitudes we might find. But we also wanted to show how research can find different responses on a range of issues, and how politicians make choices about the attitudes they wish to promote, provoke, perpetuate or even prevent.

We also wanted to show how simple bits of information can change people’s attitudes and responses. For too long some conservative politicians have been running agendas that purport to directly reference the community’s fear or anxiety, but because the polling has remained hidden in a desk drawer they have been able to claim they are merely debating an issue.

This small poll shows the choices politicians can make in discussion and leading an issue.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,132 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Someone has posted this one one of the facebook ‘people revolt’ pages:

    [are there amy rallies in Sydney for us older guys – will have travelk problems but want to march here]

  2. There is no way the government will go to the polls early and the Indies have much to lose if they do. I take it that Abbott and his backers are going rabid at their imminent nightmare, a Greens BOP in the Senate.

    Certainly.

    The thing is: Julia is up for a fight. The Greens are up for the fight — Bob Brown going off right now in Senate.

    Like most bullies, Abbott is all bluster. He will shortly drop to the ground, curl into a ball and cry for his mummy.

  3. Bob Brown getting right up the LNP…come in spinner he says, bring it on…he and JG getting there stories co ordinated…Brown getting into the acting dep President, a Liberal and Brown refusing to withdraw

  4. I’m not much good at number crunching but isn’t there something odd about 65% of the population opposing rejecting immigration based on religion and a “moderated” 50% being concerned about the number of Muslims already here. Didn’t the pollster ask the same person both questions? Or am I being dumb here?

  5. [You know I think Tony is a fiasco! How many times do I have to repeat that? Given you all agree (Truthy/GeeWizz being absent), it amazes me that so few of you have accepted the fact that this means Julia either drawing with him or being beaten by him in polling is a catastrophic result (for PPM believers, she is hardly ahead at all on that front either, so I wouldn’t get too excited by her lead on that!).]
    Of course this doesn’t take into account the circumstances of the time but if you’re happy with opposition then so be it. I must say if Labor were in opposition right now I wouldn’t be happy.

  6. Acting President is probably wishing he was somewhere else at the moment!

    Brandis is a bit muted compared to earlier.

    Probably worried about how far they wish this to go!

  7. [gee thats a big turn around considering its a two week average. julia certainly has picked a good ‘un.]
    I sense some smug happiness. Don’t get too used to it.

  8. um no Gary. i voted for her. i was suggesting she has picked a good fight/reform judging by that turnaround. dont come all Frank on me.

  9. [um no Gary. i voted for her. i was suggesting she has picked a good fight/reform judging by that turnaround. dont come all Frank on me.]
    Fair enough but just for the record if I wanted to become all Frank on you you’d know it.

  10. [Of course this doesn’t take into account the circumstances of the time but if you’re happy with opposition then so be it. I must say if Labor were in opposition right now I wouldn’t be happy]

    Would you have been happy with a tie resulting in a minority Lib govt in 1996 rather than the landslide?

    Tell me honestly, Gary, how many seats were you expecting the ALP to win at the next election in the first year of the Rudd government? 72?

  11. BH I didnt hear him say anything that would cause the chair to take offence. I believe he inferred he was not getting the protection of the Chair and said so. I suspect that is what has upset the Libs and Nats.

  12. [Would you have been happy with a tie resulting in a minority Lib govt in 1996 rather than the landslide?]
    No, not at all. It was Labor I wanted to see win.
    [Tell me honestly, Gary, how many seats were you expecting the ALP to win at the next election in the first year of the Rudd government? 72?]
    Given what happened during the campaign I was happy just to see them in with a chance to form government and would have been shattered had Abbott formed the government with the indies. As it is I’m delighted.

  13. Facebook anti-carbon marches also pushed by christian fundamenatlist fringe. Again facebook reveals all.

    Placard seen at People’s March (Opus Dei contingent):

    CAN YOU TELL I’M WEARING A CIRCE?

  14. Can anyone move a motion of no confidence in the chair? It seems there is no comeback for mistreatment by the chair. The chair cannot tell him what words have caused the problem and yet requires him to withdraw. As Milne pointed out there have been many offensive words used by the libs and they have not been asked to withdraw.

  15. Bushfire and Blue_green

    A side issue, I know, but I’m hoping that I will live long enough to say “I told you so” to the aforementioned fundamentalists, deniers and young libs (the latter not having the brains of fleas).

  16. Here’s a thought: is it possible this Essential is a bit of an outlier?

    That might sound like wishful thinking, but I just don’t get a sense of outrage that such a turnaround in the polls would seem to suggest …

  17. [Fair enough but just for the record if I wanted to become all Frank on you you’d know it.]

    Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker, Point of Order! 🙂

  18. 3716 on previous thread Mod Lib

    [ I certainly accept that governments have to work within the framework of the environment that they are in, but there is also no doubt that criticising them for blatantly doing something they clearly said they wouldn’t do is also perfectly justifiable.

    If she manages to stick to her guns and not go to water, she could actually get this through, convince the voters she needed to break her promise, and she could win next time in her own right. I have to be honest, on past experience, I doubt it… but if she gets rid of Tony, we will all be eternally thankful!]

    Goes back to what you’ve said on earlier posts. Her real test is going to be sticking to her guns against populist groundswell. The noise is going to be loud about that promise, so-called or not. Of course there is an ‘out’ with her consistent calling for a price on carbon (ie an ETS), which will be phased in. But she is right in not running away from the calling of it a tax in the implementation stage. And wisely, despite exposing herself to early flak on exactly that point. No point in getting caught up in the semantics. Calling it a ‘levy’ would hardly do after all the spoiling Abbott did on the Queensland one.

    I think Jones was a good place to start in that regard. Weather this storm and the populism stuff gets easier to face. Windsor actually made a good defence for her that she ‘didn’t win government’ anyway. But it’s a side-issue.

    If she can show a bit of steel and deliver this one, she’ll win the respect needed.

  19. blue_green: that sounds like fodder for a march placard:

    [I’M A YOUNG LIBERAL CHRISTIAN CLIMATE SCEPTIC AND I VOTE!]

    😉

  20. [Tell me honestly, Gary, how many seats were you expecting the ALP to win at the next election in the first year of the Rudd government? 72?]
    To answer that question a little more directly. No, I didn’t expect them to win only 72 at that stage but I don’t get your point. The election was not held at the time Rudd was getting thses figures. Expectations change as circumstances change. Bt the time of the election I thought Abbott was in with a real chance and was worried he was going to win. I’m sure your expectations had changed by then.

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