Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face

Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.

The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).

The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,972 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face”

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  4. [What ever the polls say, people are worries about the weather, and by logical extension, the climate. Libs risk missing the boat on this entirely if they think that people are concerned about a politician changing ground in order to address real and pressing issues.]

    Good point Gwenneth. I suspect with everything we have seen lately climate change is probably back in fashion.

  5. Glen @ 2

    [Phone polls are more accurate and you know it Gusface I mean honestly who would voice their public support for an Abbott government???]

    That is not necessarily true. For most research a properly managed Face to Face poll is, in fact, in most cases more accurate than a phone poll, as it is more ‘representative’ due to the limitations of sample inherent in a phone poll where mobile numbers are not included, as they are not for most phone polls.

    Political opinion polling is slightly different due to what is commonly called the ‘Shy Tory’ effect – that is respondents are more likely to pretend that they are not conservative leaning, as they perceive this as somehow less acceptable to be telling the face to face interviewer, in effect a mild form of shame with being seen to be voting conservative.

    Online polling (not the bullshit newspaper online polls, but research conducted by e-mail, or on mobile phones with a ‘panel’ of respondents) like that done by Essential Research and others is also a valid research methodology within the limitations of the Internet connected population not yet being entirely representative of the off line population.

  8. Darn – yes – this is a new reality. Libs are still in the 20th Century.

    A quote from the weather bureau:

    “There is no relief in sight,” Mr Relf admitted. “We’ll be well into March before a change hits.”

  9. [You are right, but I did have a dream the night before the election. Julia was at her resignation dinner and they were saying that after hanging on by her fingernails at her first election she went on to be PM for a further 16 years!]

    A nice dream to have Space Kidette. Sixteen years seems a bit wishful, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she settles in for a decade or so.

  10. [Gweneth

    Posted Friday, February 25, 2011 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/will-it-ever-end-perth-scorches-through-recordbreaking-summer-20110224-1b68h.html

    “Will it ever end? Perth scorches through record-breaking summer”

    I wonder how this will influence the climate debate in WA? From what I know people are starting to worry.

    Anyway – ciao
    ]

    all Barnett will have to say that it’s Labor’s fault and his cashed up bogans will follow.

  11. vp – thanks but I have even tried one for my third eye! 😉

    And Frank – I know what you are talking about but I sense a change in the fringes in Perth. Barnie may not have such an easy run.

  13. imacca
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    ” She stated that the ALP would put a price on carbon and would use a market mechanism to do it. No carbon tax. I have no doubt that she believed in what she was saying at the time. ”

    yep , Well thats 4 of us , so far , that actualy listened to what Julia said and 21/8 promised

    Geez peoples complain about MSN effect on public and not listen when Julia repeat says someting so clear , assuming peoples understand 2 CC opotions that were there on table Julia will get this crap till election day as from MSN & anti labor smearerers

  15. [Glen

    Posted Friday, February 25, 2011 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    Frank when’s Ripper going to be Premier???

    HAHAHAHAHAHA
    \

    Glen,

    They said Abbott was neve gong to b PM – but he almost did 🙂

    so I wouldn’t be gloating if I were you.

  18. [Frank when’s Ripper going to be Premier???

    HAHAHAHAHAHA]

    Glen

    I have no problem with your comment but I read the PB rules the other day and I think I saw that HAHAHAHAHAHA is specifically banned. Just thought I’d let you know.

  22. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 25, 2011 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    I have no problem with your comment but I read the PB rules the other day and I think I saw that HAHAHAHAHAHA is specifically banned

    HAHAHAHAHAHA
    ]

    Is that your response when Assange is finally found Guilty ? 🙂

  24. TBS @84

    [Online polling (not the bullshit newspaper online polls, but research conducted by e-mail, or on mobile phones with a ‘panel’ of respondents) like that done by Essential Research and others is also a valid research methodology within the limitations of the Internet connected population not yet being entirely representative of the off line population.]

    Hmmm

    the new paradigm?

  26. Not one Lib would make my combined Partys ministry , i want people with conviction , and ALL hole Lib MP’s has allowed tony to push turn back boats , ask for Lib doantions instead of donations to Q’ld flood victuums , oppose 21 cetury NBN , gorge public hospitals $’s , suport W/C and th rest of whole rotten caddoodee of libs wrecking racists hartless uncaring unsensible divisive poses

    showing compassion i shall appoint one , a new ministry for mirrors , for Tunbull

  31. How Julia should answer next time Phoney asks about her no carbon tax promise…

    I know politicians are gonna be judged on everything they say, but sometimes, in the heat of discussion, you go a little bit further than you would if it was an absolutely calm, considered, prepared, scripted remark, which is one of the reasons why the statements that need to be taken absolutely as gospel truth is those carefully prepared scripted remarks.

  33. [ Gusface we all bludgers should make up our National Unity Government incase of invasion/war

    Leader -Malcolm Turnbull ]

    Yeah just imagine him sacking the commander of armed forces based on a Nigerian email

  37. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/its-not-just-footy-afl-is-concerned-for-a-young-girls-welfare-20110224-1b74b.html

    [N THE frenzied rush to report and comment on the recent story involving an AFL player agent and a 17 year-old girl, a few things seem to have been overlooked.

    The most important is the young girl herself. As a vulnerable teenager, indeed child, it is her welfare that is paramount – more important than Ricky Nixon or anybody else associated with the football industry.]

    cheers andy

    CEO of the AFL

  38. I watched Al Jazeera for two minutes. They covered French reaction to Libya, JA and Christchurch. very professional. ABC should watch and learn.

  42. on indulgence

    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/nixon-should-be-kicked-out-not-handballed-20110224-1b753.html?rand=1298553798116

    [The man filmed in his underwear in a 17-year-old’s hotel room – which he has not denied – and alleged by her to have used cocaine, has been a problem handballed once again.

    But Nixon is a problem who will not go away and to whom no one is prepared to publicly challenge. It is quite pathetic. From the AFL, to the AFL Players’ Association and now to the Queen’s Counsel David Galbally. The AFLPA insisted yesterday that correct legal processes needed to be followed for the sake of Nixon’s players and the association, which feared a legal challenge from Nixon.

    But is there anyone in the country who believes Nixon has a leg to stand on? The man who has already admitted to ”inappropriate dealings” with a 17-year-old who says she fell pregnant when 16 to a St Kilda footballer.]

    sometimes the MSM does its job

  44. [The most important is the young girl herself. As a vulnerable teenager, indeed child, it is her welfare that is paramount ]

    This point seems to have been lost on some here

    daresay those who have no children?

  48. The big question that will be put to RAbbott: If you are concerned about climate change why aren’t you part of the conversation in the multiparty committee?

  49. Oooops

    the murdock press have set him adrift

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/nixon-to-face-grilling-from-players-group/story-e6frf9jf-1226011659944

    [Instead, and despite earlier assurances that he would co-operate fully with their inquiries, Nixon demanded that further questions be directed through his lawyers.

    “As soon as he got on the plane (to Ireland) his position changed,” a league insider said last night.]

    Wayne Carey has nothing on this dude

  50. http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/australian-rules-code-of-conduct/story-e6frecj3-1226011571679

    [With an independent investigation announced yesterday into high-profile player manager Ricky Nixon’s dealings with a 17-year-old girl, including allegations of a sexual relationship and drug use; nude photos of St Kilda players released; Western Bulldogs players videoed stopping traffic on an end of season trip; Brendan Fevola’s sacking after alcohol-related incidents; and St Kilda players suspended for improper use of prescription drugs, the AFL is suddenly facing a very real and very dangerous public perception issue]

    I dont expect any apologies

    BUT TO THE USUAL SUSPECTS- and their hangers on

    GIVE YOURSELVES AN UPPERCUT-OR 20

    🙁

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