Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.
The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of can’t say, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).
The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.
bilbo
what does it all mean
:anguish:
Phone polls are more accurate and you know it Gusface I mean honestly who would voice their public support for an Abbott government???
Yeah but, but no but, but yeah but…….
Who really would vote for Mr Abbutt?
I despair sometimes
[what does it all mean]
It means that if you take small samples then you are more likely to get crap.
Bilbo, why not a comment on the margin of error for the unusually small phone poll for those who don’t know how to calculate it? It gives some perspective.
People who don’t want their utilities bills to rise thanks to Saint Bob and Jools 🙂
I’m amazed so many bloggers do not remeber Julia saying she would put a price on Carbon this term if there was CC Assembly consnus on th CPRS model
I’m even more amazed that even th anti labor bloggers aint twigged to th actual CC election promise Julia has broken
[People who don’t want their utilities bills to rise thanks to Saint Bob ]
Hmmmmm
maybe frank and co are really fib stooges
*ponders awhile*
Poppycock Glen, and we both know it.
1. Newspoll
2. Galaxy
3. Nielsen
4. Essential
5. Morgan
This poll; y a w n !
Apologies Bilbo, didn’t see your margin of error comment.
I agree Morgan isnt worth mentioning Centre but it still doesnt look good for Labor ney?
Glen: You realise that if we do what you want and support Abbott’s “People’s Revolt”, you still get Morrison/Bernadi/Mirabella as ministers, the very people you claim to be embarrassed by.
There’s no freaking way that the Unhinged One would suddenly embrace Liberal moderates. 😉
Glen:
Power prices are already going up: 46% under a Liberal govt in WA.
The Libs are not going to get anywhere trying to claim that Julia broke an election promise.
That was before the voters elected a hung parliament.
[People who don’t want their utilities bills to rise thanks to Saint Bob and Jools]
So you reckon these polls were both taken today do you glen?
Ron,
No one remembers because the msm were too busy filling up reams of fish wrappers eulogising Phoney.
[ People who don’t want their utilities bills to rise thanks to Saint Bob and Jools ]
Paid a total of $73 GST today mainly on utilities. apparently the GST is a good thing.
[I agree Morgan isnt worth mentioning Centre but it still doesnt look good for Labor ney?]
If it’s not worth mentioning then whether it looks good or bad for Labor means nothing.
Yes: and Power prices will go up under an O’Farrell government in NSW IF THERE’S NO CARBON PRICE INSTITUTED.
Labor better keep pressing this point ad nauseum – prices are rising because of uncertainty in the electricity market over whether there’ll be a carbon price established.
evan14:
if there is any message in this poll, and the others recently, it is that if the Liberal party dumped TA and replaced him with a moderate then the ALP would be toast.
Then Glen could have his Minister Bilson and all the other moderates could have a go for a change.
Some of the more open minded here may change their minds about Liberal governments if that scenario was given a go for a few terms…
🙂
pap
ha
nice one!
Glen, true, it’s not a good poll for Julia but this far from an election, it’s next to meaningless.
Mod Lib: Alternatively Rudd would be a more popular PM than Gillard, but I’ll leave that one alone. 😉
Julia’s doing well this week, I grant you that.
Space Kidette
Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink
Ron,
‘ I’m amazed so many bloggers do not remeber Julia saying she would put a price on Carbon this term if there was CC Assembly consnus on th CPRS model ‘
“No one remembers because the msm were too busy filling up reams of fish wrappers eulogising Phoney.”
spaceman th MSN was so full of ridiculing anti CC Assembly stuff , that was sufficent anti labor meme , w/o going to possiblility of a priice on carbon should Assembly suport it That is why in any indepth interview Julia will simply re-state what i ve said (which WAS her words !) she was very howie’ clever how she phrased anwsers to avoid a GBNT scare
[if there is any message in this poll, and the others recently, it is that if the Liberal party dumped TA and replaced him with a moderate then the ALP would be toast.]
Not necessarily. That really is a silly comment. Firstly, you don’t know who that moderate is or how they would perform as leader and secondly, you don’t know what the circumstances will be like at the next election in a couple of years.
I suspect Rudd’s chances of being PM again in the near future are a lot lot lower than Tony Abbotts!
…in other words, it aint never gonna happen. Sorry, but thems the facts!
Gary I never said that. I said that as a response to Gusface saying why would people vote for Tony A.
My Shadow Cabinet….
Leader -Malcolm Turnbull
Deputy Leader – Ian McFarlane
Treasurer – Joe Hockey
Finance – Andrew Robb
Defence – Bruce Billson
Health – Greg Hunt
Education – Julie Bishop
Foreign Affairs – Christopher Pyne
Communications/Broadband – Michael Keenan
Climate Change/Environment + Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane
It means exactly nothing. A little like examining the entrails of chickens. Or talking to druggie virgins at Delphi. Or reading the stars. MY gut (as opposed to chicken gut) is very happy with this week in politics. Way more to go -expect much hysterical ranting and scaremongering from the right – but Julia has declared war. My money is she will win the war, not every battle, but the war.
On this I am, unusually, at one with Mod Lib. If she keeps on this path she will win this. ML – take a point – yes she said whatever it is that she said in an election campaign before she had spent two weeks in the top job and before the hung parliament was a reality – if it gives you a little high. I am feeling generous tonight! 🙂
[Alternatively Rudd would be a more popular PM than Gillard, but I’ll leave that one alone.]
Good idea because it means nothing.
Mod Lib: Don’t forget that Turnball and Nelson polled very poorly against Rudd, and there’s no guarantee that Hockey as leader would be a success either.
Judi Moylan is perhaps your only decent moderate left in the party, but she’ll never get to be even a parliamentary secretary.
[Some of the more open minded here may change their minds about Liberal governments if that scenario was given a go for a few terms…]
We just had three terms of one and the voters said, thanks but no thanks, to another three! 😉
[I suspect Rudd’s chances of being PM again in the near future are a lot lot lower than Tony Abbotts!
…in other words, it aint never gonna happen. Sorry, but thems the facts!]
That we agree on.
[confessions
Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
Glen:
Power prices are already going up: 46% under a Liberal govt in WA.
]
and not a word of outrage from our Media – some owoe is me stories, but nothing like when Labor were in Power.
The ladies who were seduced (can’t think of a better word) by Tony’s Paid Parental Leave Scheme have now been turned off by his general demeanor.
Gweneth,
You are right, but I did have a dream the night before the election. Julia was at her resignation dinner and they were saying that after hanging on by her fingernails at her first election she went on to be PM for a further 16 years!
[My Shadow Cabinet….
Leader -Malcolm Turnbull
Deputy Leader – Ian McFarlane
Treasurer – Joe Hockey
Finance – Andrew Robb
Defence – Bruce Billson
Health – Greg Hunt
Education – Julie Bishop
Foreign Affairs – Christopher Pyne
Communications/Broadband – Michael Keenan
Climate Change/Environment + Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane]
Pyne as Foreign Affairs Minister?
Surely you jest……………..:D
Yes but Frank your dear Leader in WA has told ya’ll to turn off your air conditioners and youse be right 😀
[Not necessarily. That really is a silly comment. Firstly, you don’t know who that moderate is or how they would perform as leader and secondly, you don’t know what the circumstances will be like at the next election in a couple of years.]
Gary:
I get the fact that lots can change between now and the election. The point I am making is that:
1. Tony has a disapproval rating of 56%
2. Tony would be PM based on the phone poll as 53% would vote for him on TPP
that means there are a lot of people who really don’t like Tony but are voting for the Coalition anyway!
Evan the best post for Pyne is something that requires him to leave Australia often 😀
glen
what about a multi party one?
(someone suggested it awhile back)
Leader -kevinl
Deputy Leader – Twindsor
Treasurer – swan
Finance – oakiie
Defence – Bruce Billson
Health – roxon
Education – combet/gillard
Foreign Affairs – turnbull
Communications/Broadband – conroy
Climate Change/Environment- wong
Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane
Glen, you need a Minister for Xenophobia/Harrassing Boat People – your suggestion? 😉
Glen,
Surely you would not embarrass Australia by inflicting Pyne on the rest of the world?
[Glen
Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:42 pm | Permalink
Yes but Frank your dear Leader in WA has told ya’ll to turn off your air conditioners and youse be right
]
and was recieved as well as an enema.
Yet King Col has no qualms about building his empire.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-9nfZYEtUs&feature=feedu
Need look no further than Tone 🙂
SK – I think it is a premonition. A new Delphic oracle? 😉
Would you rather Scott Morrison for Foreign Affairs or Tony Smith or my choice of whineplomacy???
The Libs got massacred in QT today!
It was the biggest massacre I have ever seen in QT and I have a good memory and don’t exagerate.
The Libs are coming to the realisation that Labor may be able to sell this. Poor Pyne, he looked mortified. It was a pleasure to watch 😀
From the REAL Foreign Minister:
[Usual nonsense in Parliament today. But we all agree on condemning atrocities in Libya. I spoke in the House http://bit.ly/fnoxrY KRudd]
Gweneth,
I could handle be a “druggie virgin”. 👿
[Gusface
Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
glen
what about a multi party one?
(someone suggested it awhile back)]
Guilty as charged! Here was my dream team:
Turnbull (PM)
Treasurer (Simon Crean)
Finance?(Bilson)
Greg Hunt (Foreign Affairs)
David Johnston (Defence or Mike Kelly?)
Education?(Gillard)
Health?(Christopher Pyne)
Children and Society or whateveritscalled (Plibersek)
Att General?(Brandis)
Trade?(Julie Bishop)
Immigration (J Moylan)
Environment (Penny Wong)
Indigenous Affairs (Ken Wyatt- too soon?)
Agriculture (Robb)
Others somewhere:
Stephen Smith
Nicola Roxon
Tony Bourke
Greg Combet
Bill Shorten
Mike Kelly
Hockey
but come to think of it, I’m going to have a reshuffle already and put Tony Windsor in as Special Minister of Common Sense as well.
be = being