Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face

Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.

The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).

The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,972 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face”

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  1. [what does it all mean]
    It means that if you take small samples then you are more likely to get crap.

    Bilbo, why not a comment on the margin of error for the unusually small phone poll for those who don’t know how to calculate it? It gives some perspective.

  2. I’m amazed so many bloggers do not remeber Julia saying she would put a price on Carbon this term if there was CC Assembly consnus on th CPRS model

    I’m even more amazed that even th anti labor bloggers aint twigged to th actual CC election promise Julia has broken

  3. Glen: You realise that if we do what you want and support Abbott’s “People’s Revolt”, you still get Morrison/Bernadi/Mirabella as ministers, the very people you claim to be embarrassed by.
    There’s no freaking way that the Unhinged One would suddenly embrace Liberal moderates. πŸ˜‰

  4. The Libs are not going to get anywhere trying to claim that Julia broke an election promise.

    That was before the voters elected a hung parliament.

  5. [People who don’t want their utilities bills to rise thanks to Saint Bob and Jools]
    So you reckon these polls were both taken today do you glen?

  6. [ People who don’t want their utilities bills to rise thanks to Saint Bob and Jools ]

    Paid a total of $73 GST today mainly on utilities. apparently the GST is a good thing.

  7. [I agree Morgan isnt worth mentioning Centre but it still doesnt look good for Labor ney?]
    If it’s not worth mentioning then whether it looks good or bad for Labor means nothing.

  8. Yes: and Power prices will go up under an O’Farrell government in NSW IF THERE’S NO CARBON PRICE INSTITUTED.
    Labor better keep pressing this point ad nauseum – prices are rising because of uncertainty in the electricity market over whether there’ll be a carbon price established.

  9. evan14:

    if there is any message in this poll, and the others recently, it is that if the Liberal party dumped TA and replaced him with a moderate then the ALP would be toast.

    Then Glen could have his Minister Bilson and all the other moderates could have a go for a change.

    Some of the more open minded here may change their minds about Liberal governments if that scenario was given a go for a few terms…

    πŸ™‚

  10. Mod Lib: Alternatively Rudd would be a more popular PM than Gillard, but I’ll leave that one alone. πŸ˜‰
    Julia’s doing well this week, I grant you that.

  11. Space Kidette
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Ron,
    ‘ I’m amazed so many bloggers do not remeber Julia saying she would put a price on Carbon this term if there was CC Assembly consnus on th CPRS model ‘

    “No one remembers because the msm were too busy filling up reams of fish wrappers eulogising Phoney.”

    spaceman th MSN was so full of ridiculing anti CC Assembly stuff , that was sufficent anti labor meme , w/o going to possiblility of a priice on carbon should Assembly suport it That is why in any indepth interview Julia will simply re-state what i ve said (which WAS her words !) she was very howie’ clever how she phrased anwsers to avoid a GBNT scare

  12. [if there is any message in this poll, and the others recently, it is that if the Liberal party dumped TA and replaced him with a moderate then the ALP would be toast.]
    Not necessarily. That really is a silly comment. Firstly, you don’t know who that moderate is or how they would perform as leader and secondly, you don’t know what the circumstances will be like at the next election in a couple of years.

  13. I suspect Rudd’s chances of being PM again in the near future are a lot lot lower than Tony Abbotts!

    …in other words, it aint never gonna happen. Sorry, but thems the facts!

  14. Gary I never said that. I said that as a response to Gusface saying why would people vote for Tony A.

    My Shadow Cabinet….

    Leader -Malcolm Turnbull
    Deputy Leader – Ian McFarlane
    Treasurer – Joe Hockey
    Finance – Andrew Robb
    Defence – Bruce Billson
    Health – Greg Hunt
    Education – Julie Bishop
    Foreign Affairs – Christopher Pyne
    Communications/Broadband – Michael Keenan
    Climate Change/Environment + Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane

  15. It means exactly nothing. A little like examining the entrails of chickens. Or talking to druggie virgins at Delphi. Or reading the stars. MY gut (as opposed to chicken gut) is very happy with this week in politics. Way more to go -expect much hysterical ranting and scaremongering from the right – but Julia has declared war. My money is she will win the war, not every battle, but the war.

    On this I am, unusually, at one with Mod Lib. If she keeps on this path she will win this. ML – take a point – yes she said whatever it is that she said in an election campaign before she had spent two weeks in the top job and before the hung parliament was a reality – if it gives you a little high. I am feeling generous tonight! πŸ™‚

  16. Mod Lib: Don’t forget that Turnball and Nelson polled very poorly against Rudd, and there’s no guarantee that Hockey as leader would be a success either.
    Judi Moylan is perhaps your only decent moderate left in the party, but she’ll never get to be even a parliamentary secretary.

  17. [Some of the more open minded here may change their minds about Liberal governments if that scenario was given a go for a few terms…]

    We just had three terms of one and the voters said, thanks but no thanks, to another three! πŸ˜‰

  18. [I suspect Rudd’s chances of being PM again in the near future are a lot lot lower than Tony Abbotts!

    …in other words, it aint never gonna happen. Sorry, but thems the facts!]
    That we agree on.

  19. [confessions

    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Glen:

    Power prices are already going up: 46% under a Liberal govt in WA.
    ]

    and not a word of outrage from our Media – some owoe is me stories, but nothing like when Labor were in Power.

  20. The ladies who were seduced (can’t think of a better word) by Tony’s Paid Parental Leave Scheme have now been turned off by his general demeanor.

  21. Gweneth,

    You are right, but I did have a dream the night before the election. Julia was at her resignation dinner and they were saying that after hanging on by her fingernails at her first election she went on to be PM for a further 16 years!

  22. [My Shadow Cabinet….

    Leader -Malcolm Turnbull
    Deputy Leader – Ian McFarlane
    Treasurer – Joe Hockey
    Finance – Andrew Robb
    Defence – Bruce Billson
    Health – Greg Hunt
    Education – Julie Bishop
    Foreign Affairs – Christopher Pyne
    Communications/Broadband – Michael Keenan
    Climate Change/Environment + Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane]

    Pyne as Foreign Affairs Minister?
    Surely you jest……………..:D

  23. [Not necessarily. That really is a silly comment. Firstly, you don’t know who that moderate is or how they would perform as leader and secondly, you don’t know what the circumstances will be like at the next election in a couple of years.]

    Gary:

    I get the fact that lots can change between now and the election. The point I am making is that:

    1. Tony has a disapproval rating of 56%
    2. Tony would be PM based on the phone poll as 53% would vote for him on TPP

    that means there are a lot of people who really don’t like Tony but are voting for the Coalition anyway!

  24. glen

    what about a multi party one?

    (someone suggested it awhile back)

    Leader -kevinl
    Deputy Leader – Twindsor
    Treasurer – swan
    Finance – oakiie
    Defence – Bruce Billson
    Health – roxon
    Education – combet/gillard
    Foreign Affairs – turnbull
    Communications/Broadband – conroy
    Climate Change/Environment- wong
    Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane

  25. The Libs got massacred in QT today!

    It was the biggest massacre I have ever seen in QT and I have a good memory and don’t exagerate.

    The Libs are coming to the realisation that Labor may be able to sell this. Poor Pyne, he looked mortified. It was a pleasure to watch πŸ˜€

  26. [Gusface
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
    glen

    what about a multi party one?

    (someone suggested it awhile back)]

    Guilty as charged! Here was my dream team:

    Turnbull (PM)
    Treasurer (Simon Crean)
    Finance?(Bilson)
    Greg Hunt (Foreign Affairs)
    David Johnston (Defence or Mike Kelly?)
    Education?(Gillard)
    Health?(Christopher Pyne)
    Children and Society or whateveritscalled (Plibersek)
    Att General?(Brandis)
    Trade?(Julie Bishop)
    Immigration (J Moylan)
    Environment (Penny Wong)
    Indigenous Affairs (Ken Wyatt- too soon?)
    Agriculture (Robb)

    Others somewhere:
    Stephen Smith
    Nicola Roxon
    Tony Bourke
    Greg Combet
    Bill Shorten
    Mike Kelly
    Hockey

    but come to think of it, I’m going to have a reshuffle already and put Tony Windsor in as Special Minister of Common Sense as well.

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