Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face

Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.

The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).

The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,972 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face”

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  4. I always think preferred PM and voting intentions are a bit like asking
    1)Would you be more likely to watch Fox news if they moderated their approach
    2)Do you watch Fox now.

    If Fox became more like CBS they would get a higher prerence in the poll but truth is, ratings is what measures winners and Fox do’t want the ratings of CBS

  8. Shane Wright in The West:

    [WA will get an extra $400 million in GST revenue from the other States, with the Commonwealth Grants Commission today to reveal a big increase in cash flowing west. The West Australian can reveal that WA’s share of GST revenue will rise to 72c for every dollar raised in the State from its current record low of 68.2c. After receiving an estimated $3.3 billion GST this financial year, the commission says WA will qualify for $3.7 billion in 2011-12. WA may get even more if GST receipts pick up on the back of a stronger economy. State Treasury had been expecting WA’s share to drop to just 66c in the dollar … The turnaround is due in large part to the State’s subdued property market and the sharp pick-up in private sector wages, which is making it more expensive for the State Government to pay its own workers and the cost of major infrastructure projects.]

  11. Something has reminded me of Wilson Tuckey. Probably that bad cheese I ate an hour or so ago.

    Is the old wanker still out there, trying to fix speeding tickets for his family?

  13. [ALP told to go green to regain lost vote]

    Kinda figured they’re looking to regain some lost votes on the left. Can Labor do this without isolating middle voters too much or just looking like they are pandering to the left? We shall see. Nevertheless, it does need to be done.

  14. As for this poll. There is nothing much I can say about it, except it’s not a good one for Labor. Too early to tell if it is indicative of any sort of trend or not. I have been chronically ill in the last few days, so I have only had limited information of recent events, so I can’t comment on whether or not things have triggered it (unless it was last weeks crap finally catching up)

    I do know however that Gillard and the government seem to have gotten a spark back and this is starting to be noticed by political commentators too. So, I’d advise to not worry too much about them and just keep governing actively and the polls will sort themselves.

    Backbench revolts shouldn’t be too much of an issue if the government has a full agenda. And I wouldn’t worry about the indies, they’re not going anywhere.

  15. The ALP report as related by that article in The Oz is also the first time in a while I’ve seen a challenge to the notion that “the real Julia” was a defining disaster of Labor’s campaign. This was wisdom after the event – at the time it did indeed seem that it was “successful in moving on the media from the leaks”, which was no small accomplishment.

  16. MSN no all out attack on Julia’s “backflip “ on broken promise of no Carbon Tax

    MSN is lying inplying a Carbon Tax option & a CPRS option is th same to make Julia th lier

    18/8/10 Julia to th ABC

    ‘ The Prime Minister specifically rejected a carbon tax on Wednesday night, telling ABC Television “the pricing of carbon I think is best done through a market-based mechanism — that is the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme”. ‘

    20/8/11 Julia to th OO

    “I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market-based mechanism,” she said of the next parliament. “I rule out a carbon tax.”

    22/7/10 Julia Campaign TV Speech

    ” The SECOND commitment I will give today is that, if we are re-elected, I will USE the CPRS as the BASIS for this Citizens’ Assembly and community consultation on the way forward in reducing pollution through a MARKET mechanism. In doing so, I RECOMIT TO the NEED for a MARKET (CPRS) mechanism. “

    two things is clear from her quotes
    1/ Julia ruled OUT a Carbon Tax Regime
    2/ Julia ruled IN promising a market based mechanism to price carbin

    IF th MSN is correct that Julia back flopped/lied then a Carbon Price Regime and a CPRS Scheme must be th same thing , & Julai trickilly used semantics of diff terms that is exactly th same carbon price mechansm

    Seeing they is totally diff animals it is th Abbott and MSN thats lying or CC ignorant

    a Carbon Price Regime is where you get a Govt decided fixd tax on carbon adj yr on a permanent basis and which would run as such to 2020 and beyond

    Whereas under Julia at 21/8/10 a Carbon Tax Regime does not Julia/Labor’s CPRS Scheme features , to hav permits issued for a transitionery first yr when th carbon price is Govt decided fixed , has no later carbin price set by th Market , has no decr limit on permits no’s issued a yr to polute , has no Emmissions Cap , and has no market mechanisms

    So Julia was promising a CPRS , someting completely unlike a Carbon Tax Regime which is why she ruled out a a Carbon Tax Regime This makes Abott , th MSN an anyone else th liers or CC ignorant who claim Julia lied/backflipped , she told th truth , Julia was talking of a diff carbon pricing animal

    I imagine this lying and or CC ignorant meme against Julia and Labor (with some sucess unfortunate) will be run for next 2 yrs till next election by Abbott , MSN and those anti Labor Some Lib Bloggers already tried this patthetic meme Julia since has simply extended 1 yr transition to 3yrs as World is moving too slow to a World CPRS

  17. The Howard hagiographer and serial Coalition apologist, Peter van Onselen presents a reasonably balanced appraisal of the Carbon Price ‘debate.’

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/political-grenade-defused-by-morphing-into-an-economic-debate/story-e6frgd0x-1226011587290

    Normally, our friend PVO errs on the side of ‘His Master’s Voice’ by toeing the approved Murdoch mandated line, but sometimes he lashes out and expresses an opinion that seems to be based on fact, as in this case.

    Don’t hold your breath for any similar ‘fact-based’ reporting on this issue from his partisan colleagues at the OO.

  18. WB @ 162

    [And what happened to the blog he was going to start? Couldn’t work his way through the start-up form at Blogger, is my guess.]

    Could Old Wilson even find the on/off switch of a pc?

    ‘Iron Bar’ would be more at home now having a whinge about the abos in the back bar of his old pub in Carnarvon, or perhaps more deservedly, committed to a maximum security twilight facility for superannuated politicians, there to lapse into a well merited dotage and be forgotten by history.

  19. Morning PBers –

    2SM going in hard on the carbon price today. All the oldies ringing in saying they’ll be revolting with Abbott. Could be they’ve been that way for ages!!

    Goldman going to get Abbott on his program today to tell him to go in really hard about this. Says he energised now to go hard against this.

    The PM is all things evil apparently.

  20. @ BH

    There just as bad over on 2gb I had a little listen an hour or so ago and had to switch off whilst the played Julias no carbon tax promise over and over again.

  22. This tax is aint big enough for both of them. Hign Noon, do not forsake me oh my darlin’. i would rather die poor than carbon rich.

    [IT’S on. There’s no turning back from the big climate policy rematch when a Prime Minister vows ”we will have this debate and we will win it” and an Opposition Leader promises to oppose the same policy ”every minute of every day”…………. And Julia Gillard faces bigger political dangers than Kevin Rudd did. She now has to broker a solution between the powerful business lobby that will pay the tax and an emboldened balance-of-power-holding Greens party, and at the same time keep the country independents on side. Little wonder agriculture has been ruled out of the scheme from the get-go.

    She also has to win back the confidence of a public disinclined to believe anything Labor says on this issue given its recent inglorious history.

    Tony Abbott, on the other hand, has banked everything on the same negative strategy that won him the Liberal leadership in the first place and served him well at the last election.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/bruising-battle-ahead-as-leaders-fight-out-climate-rematch-20110224-1b757.html

  23. Paul_J I only listen because I’m monitoring it a bit but it’s hard going. I think Goldman doesn’t have the capacity to research anything or to read it properly when he does.

    Some of his callers are strange. I rang him once to give him some facts to think about – he cut me off with a smart quip. No point trying again.

  24. Tell me this is not true:

    [AFL boss Andrew Demetriou – who called Nixon on Sunday to offer his sympathy for the manner in which he was being treated in the media]

    Shame Ping pong, shame.

    [This ugly scandal symbolises Australian rules football for those outside the industry and around the country. Right or wrong, Australian rules football has been tainted. And the game should have taken a stronger stand by now instead of talking constantly and yet again about its concern for the girl who had sex with two St Kilda and one Collingwood footballer early last year.

    But like the AFLPA, no one else in the industry, it seems, is prepared to come out and unconditionally condemn Nixon’s behaviour.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/nixon-should-be-kicked-out-not-handballed-20110224-1b753.html?rand=1298553798116

  25. Finns – I always read Lenore Taylor’s stuff. She is one of the best.

    I was wondering how many in the media believe CC is a reality and that a carbon price is necessary. If so, will they get behind reporting it all without too much controversy.

    From those who watched ABC24 yesterday it sounds as tho the ABC has drawn up its battle lines. Melissa Clarke was all smiles this morning when mentioning ‘carbon tax’ cos her boy, Tone, has something else to use against the PM. That girl is so predictable.

  26. BH @ 169

    [2SM going in hard on the carbon price today. All the oldies ringing in saying they’ll be revolting with Abbott. Could be they’ve been that way for ages!!

    Goldman going to get Abbott on his program today to tell him to go in really hard about this. Says he energised now to go hard against this.

    The PM is all things evil apparently.]

    True to form, and nothing to be concerned about – these cretins would boo a cure for cancer, if it was announced by Julia Gillard.

    Expect more of the same from the usual suspects wallowing in the pit of raw sewage that is talkback radio. No doubt ‘The Parrot’ and Rabid Ray Hadley will soon be accusing the PM and her reprehensible Government of treason, or other high crimes and misdemeanors, as the fear and misinformation campaign, co-ordinated closely with the office of the Leader of the Opposition, is ramped up into high gear during today.

    One can be sure that Alan Jones voice will rise a few more octaves than usual as he fires himself up into a towering rage of confected fury and anger against our dastardly PM. Now that Luciano Pavarotti is gone, and Julie Andrews’ voice is no longer the awesome instrument it once was, ‘The Parrot’ now stands alone as the gold standard in shrill and ascending vocal pyrotechnics.

  27. [If Abbott and his cronies kept their mouths shut and stopped the hot air, we’d meet the carbon reduction target without the carbon tax]

    BetterBBest@3154 – now there’s a point. Perhaps we could have that hot air measured and charge them for it.

  28. BH @ 175

    [From those who watched ABC24 yesterday it sounds as tho the ABC has drawn up its battle lines. Melissa Clarke was all smiles this morning when mentioning ‘carbon tax’ cos her boy, Tone, has something else to use against the PM. That girl is so predictable.]

    The derivative and debased ABC will take their marching orders from whatever lines the Murdoch Circus puts out during today, bereft as they are of any independent journalistic assessors of the facts of a Carbon Price. As for the partisan hack, Melissa Clark, best to turn down the sound, or switch over to Mel and Kochie as soon as her lop-sided visage flashes onto the TV screen. At least Channel 7’s Mel doesn’t pretend, or aspire to be anything other than a complete airhead.

  30. [Melissa Clarke was all smiles this morning when mentioning ‘carbon tax’ cos her boy, Tone, has something else to use against the PM. That girl is so predictable.]

    BH, yes, i notice that too. she was practically beaming. whereas few days ago when newspoll came out, she was rather despondent.

    Anyway, i dont know how old she is but she is definite looking very old most of the time. Even La Trigger looks younger than her.

  31. [what about Tony Windsor? I reckon it would be a cracker of a Ministry with him in it. I don’t suspect that he would tolerate any of the flipflopping we have seen from all sides- hed just say it like it is.]

    We converge again Mod Lib. In fact, I’d make him PM if he was willing to stand. Gillard would be fine as Treasurer.

    Was Glen having a lend of us with Hockey as Treasurer and Bronny in the Ministry?

  32. The BigShip – in an area where we can’t get free to air reception. Stuck with the ABC or SkyNews and not much choice in radio either. Living close in ‘God’s own’ makes up for it.

    To be fair I reckon that SkyNews is a bit better than the ABC nowdays.

  33. [All the oldies ringing in saying they’ll be revolting with Abbott. Could be they’ve been that way for ages!!]

    Maybe they’ll rock up in their 4WDs and strip down to their waistlines as they did when taking on Rudd over pensions or means tests or some such.

  34. lady on sunrise shrills backlash to Julia gillards carbon tax,

    leaves room before radio disc jockeys arrive, ( that what they use to be called, i remember asking why when i was little and my father said because they just play records all day, i}
    any way didnt stop around to listen, i thought the grown up people would start to realise we need to do something about pollution in this century.

  36. [Maybe they’ll rock up in their 4WDs and strip down to their waistlines as they did when taking on Rudd over pensions or means tests or some such.]

    GorgeousD – that might not be too far from the truth. The radio station I mentioned was the first one active in stirring up the mob over the ‘farmer up the pole’ . They organised buses to take people down to protest at the site.

  37. i worked in an industry where i noticed that many people who complained about the gov. their pension and other taxes had the latest electronic gizmo sitting in the corner and the wall to wall videos.
    now saving the planet was not on their mind at all just the next gizmo

  39. Good Morning Bludgers,

    Been having fun with Latika who was coverinng JG’s Alan Jones interview this morning:

    [ latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Alan tells JG Emissions Trading buried KRudd and it will bury her.
    8 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply in reply to ?

    @SpaceKidette
    Space Kidette
    @latikambourke What buried Rudd was the fact that after being given a mandate to fix climate change he dropped it to avoid DD .
    ]

  40. [ALP told to go green to regain lost vote

    Kinda figured they’re looking to regain some lost votes on the left. Can Labor do this without isolating middle voters too much or just looking like they are pandering to the left? We shall see. Nevertheless, it does need to be done.]

    well i dont see that a gov, with Julia especially is just looking for votes at all.
    She is doing the correct thing just running the country well as she see it should be, the voters have to realise nothing stays the same as it did in their life time, its not 1945 to the dear old ones who just dont get it.

    It was the same in the 50, and 60s for the ones born in the 20s and 30s, Hydro power was a scuge we where digging up the them there hills and putting in dams and power /
    ‘ and gee where where horses going to poo the trams came and the cars and the horses had to used still.
    Time cannot stand still, and neither will it do when my grandson is 50 in 2055
    it will still be the same old uneducated people wanting the world to stay as exactly as they know it.

  41. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Alan tells JG Emissions Trading buried KRudd and it will bury her.
    8 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply in reply to ?

    @SpaceKidette]

    doesnt she work for the abc why is she covering this,.
    dont we may mrs bourke wages, ask her that

  43. [
    doesnt she work for the abc why is she covering this,.
    dont we may mrs bourke wages, ask her that
    ]

    my say

    Latika covers many media events for the PM, Opposition leader and other members of parliament via Twitter. It is part of her role at the ABC. I for one really enjoy her efforts. It keeps people like me up to date with what is happening during the day.

  44. Just listened to Alan Jones being demolished by Gillard for almost twenty minutes – just checked for the Audio file but not posted on 2GB site yet.

  45. BH @ 182

    [To be fair I reckon that SkyNews is a bit better than the ABC nowdays.]

    Sadly BH, you are right, and this speaks volumes as to how far the ABC has degenerated in recent years.

    SkyNews, whilst most of its guest contributors are partisan in varying degrees of Abbott-loving and it’s on air staff (Speers, Gilbert, et al) veer from parochial to parody within the same report, they are at least slick and professional in their presentation, if anything but objective.

    ABC news and current affairs, especially the appalling ABC24, on the other hand have all of the faults of SkyNews and none of the redeeming features, peopled as they are by either recycled or rejected Murdoch Hacks, or the sad and sordid rump of what remains of ABC journalistic integrity and ability after all of the real professionals have left for greener pastures because of managerial interference, or bureaucratic indifference.

    Best to turn off both the TV and the radio, and go outside for a nice walk, or sit down for a cup of tea and a biscuit in the comfy chair.

  48. pencer_63: Shouted??? Rt @3AWNeilMitchell: Julia Gillard on the program today. First time since she shouted at me. It will be about lies

    Holy Moly… he shouted at her!.

    Now it seems to be a crime to take on a shock jock.

    Abbott also refusing to say whether he’ll repeal a Carbon Tax. Probably because he doesn’t want to admit it might pass.

  49. Cuppa if you are around the start difference between the reporting of the Wilkie story is just ammazing.
    i have sent him both versions and ask for a comment and added a few more details for him.

    will ring his office later and pop in when i am in the city, they alwasy say come in and have a chat, he is a good one on causes lets see if he can take this one up to when the gambling one is put to bed.

  50. Hilarious!

    Alan Jones show has an on line poll on the Carbon Tax.

    Do you want your federal MP to vote in favour of a carbon tax?

    Yes….. 1.3%…….274 votes
    No…. 98.7%..21,001 votes

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