Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.
The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).
The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.
Another 100 votes in while I wrote post #200
[Alan Jones show has an on line poll on the Carbon Tax.]
They’re just a selfish bunch of whingy, whiney old people, says me (an older person than I’d like to be).
Combet was good on AM this morning. Firm and articulate. Worth listening to. I reckon that Abbott didn’t get as good a run from Sabraa Lane as he expected.
[Best to turn off both the TV and the radio, and go outside for a nice walk, or sit down for a cup of tea and a biscuit in the comfy chair.]
Yes and we will let Julia handle it i am sure she can but she must use the word pollutiion.
I remember as long ago as the sixties people would say all that dam pollution coming in to the air, this was when these shouting people where younger, the abc 4 corners program when it was a good program took us to many polluting sites and we where outraged. in the days of the great junos of integrity the one that come to mind was the one that was so nice and great who died from a brain tumor, then the one that use to do 4 corners.
interesting, why does obrien need to sit there introduce the 4 corners programe then say its finished and go home.
years ago i think it was Jennifer Byrne used to introduce the tues night jounalist programe ( gee i am forgetting things) and i really liked her take on things her lovley smile.
then she dissapeared and the journalists introduced them selves, i cannot really see what obrien does i thought he must of been going to take an active roll in the reporting
side of things, seems a wast of time just sitting there saying hello and good bye.
Funny that. No votes – Yes or No – in the past 5 minutes.
Can these on line polls be accurate?
(:))
Morrison putting out a “call to war” – we may have to march against this!
[They’re just a selfish bunch of whingy, whiney old people, says me (an older person than I’d like to be)]
BH the difference is between them and us and all the ladies and gentleman here
with some exception of course, we take the long view for our children and their children not the selfish today view.
we are also well informed and dont listen to uniformed people,.
We care about each other and really we are not old only our wrinkles are old
this is funny thing i would like to share re wrinkles.
i was worried i would be late for my grandson picking him up from school he looked worried. i said where you worried oma had forgot you.
” He observed ( only 5 in jan) well oma i have noticed, that people with wrinkles forget thing s and dont know a lot any more” how about that
may be he is spot on..
i kid you now
my say @ 190
[ALP told to go green to regain lost vote
Kinda figured they’re looking to regain some lost votes on the left. Can Labor do this without isolating middle voters too much or just looking like they are pandering to the left? We shall see. Nevertheless, it does need to be done.]
Not sure who else you were quoting from here, my say, but I would ask why should the ALP apologise about ‘pandering’ to the left – we are the Left, or at least we should be, so what is wrong with charting a policy course that endorses progressive, Left of Centre ideology?
The ALP does need to embrace its roots as the party of progressive economic and social change, and a price on carbon can the 21st century equivalent of the fight for worker’s rights through Conciliation and Arbitration, or for universal health care through Medicare.
Those landmark social initiatives were passed into law by progressive Labor Governments, but were opposed in their day by the reactionaries and the naysayers from the Conservatives and their acolytes in the media.
BH,
It is not about age. It is about state of mind, and a degree of self-absorption that is just mind-boggling when you see it in action.
Nothing I have ever seen you write has ever indicated that you will be in that class of people – ever.
ps, the next time one of the oldies you know say something about julia, and this particulary tax on polluters is to just say
” o i dont listen to uninformed people”
or ‘you must be listening to uninformed people and walk off”
some people may then start to drop the penny and change their habits
and go out for a walk i gave up on talk back years ago.
i have suggested to the abc here that its old fashioned and now we have a new presenter who is quite good, and there is not much talk back at all.
perhaps others have. if you really take notice and we can here because of the small population, its the same old people who ring every day, like the letters to the editor,.
one cheeky person wrote to the mercury a few months ago and listed them and said that there would NOT be many letters unless that lot wrote them
just a thought. these people also live in the old media and have not realised they can leave letters to the masses on the net.
Good morning, Bludgers!
[Just listened to Alan Jones being demolished by Gillard for almost twenty minutes – just checked for the Audio file but not posted on 2GB site yet.]
Onya, Julia!
So the lass who took her first big career step in the legal team working with Greg Combet on the Waterside Dispute 1968 now knows that, come 1 July, she not only has the numbers to pass the Carbon Price legislation, she will have them until Spring 2013, by which time a whole raft of initiatives the conservatives (esp shock jocks & their listeners) truly hate will be firmly in place!
If you want a nice, gleeful thought to brighten up Poets Friday, look at the grin between Bob Brown & Oakshott, and the confident Ranga to the right and remember that they are what Howard, Rieth, Chris Corrigan and the Borbidge NP-L Coalition created in 1998.
That, PBers, is a VERY smirky thought!
[well i dont see that a gov, with Julia especially is just looking for votes at all.
]
big ship you must be green or missunderstand what i am saying is she is doing the correct thing by the country, and gathering votes is not a central thing on her mind
she is just doing what is needed. so dont get your critisim.
we should never govern the country just for votes like the others do, the AS issue is the recent one that comes to mind we have definately turned the corner with that one and we won it seems or abbott would not have dropped it.
John Hewson on Sky coming out very strongly for a carbon price.
And didn’t Julia deal with the despicable, decrepit Jones beautifully!
OZ POll ,
whata great photo i sent it on to Sen Brown and told him to have it enlarged and put it in his office and lookafter JUlia. and support her every day.
or look out lol
what was windsor thinking any ideas from pbs
[The Big Ship
Posted Friday, February 25, 2011 at 8:27 am | Permalink
my say @ 190
ALP told to go green to regain lost vote
Kinda figured they’re looking to regain some lost votes on the left. Can Labor do this without isolating middle voters too much or just looking like they are pandering to the left? We shall see. Nevertheless, it does need to be done.]
BIG SHIP this was not my quote
my say,
From what he said he was only announcing a framework. His being there did not mean he would automatically vote for it. Very clear differentiation between his role on the committee and his role in parliament.
I have had my faith in humanity restored. The twitterverse is largely panning Alan Jones for his vile behaviour this morning with the PM.
[ keeps people like me up to date with what is happening during the day.]
just trying to make the point in the old days of the abc one would of been told to walk out the door,
i dont get it how you can work for the abc and comment on jones at the same time.
now perhaps i am sounding old,
[From what he said he was only announcing a framework. ]
windsor do you mean
my say,
Yes, Windsor.
Probably not in good taste timing wise, but the Mayor of Christchurch has an uncanny resemblance to Uncle Martin from My Favorite Martian.
BB @ 198
[Holy Moly… he shouted at her!]
Again, this is straight from the tried and tested playbook of Republican Dirty Tricks as published by Karl Rove and perfected into an artform by FoxNews – take whatever nasty, or spiteful calumny has been perpetrated against your opponent by yourself, or one of your right wing attack dogs, then directly accuse your opponent of the same thing, despite the manifest untruth of the claim.
It matters not that the claim you have made is utterly wrong – all that matters is that you make the claim as loudly as possible, and as many times as possible. A variation on ‘The Big Lie’ used so successfully by arch propagandist, Dr. Josef Goebbels.
It’s ironic how often the purveyors of this technique, developed to a fever pitch by the Nazis, actually accuse their opponents of being Nazis – FoxNews crackpots Glenn Beck, Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity being the prime exemplars, and our own home grown versions can be how far behind?
Not far, me thinks.
[Abbott on carbon tax: “every time I open my wallet I’ll pay tax”. I gather no one’s explained the GST to him then]
love this tweet, i think it was ms curtis, see even i am looking at tweet now.
I loved this tweet:
[@Supermercado99
Adam Von Plum
Sad country when the only person to have ever stood up to Alan Jones properly was Chopper Reed. First MP to tell him to FO gets my vote.
]
[Nothing I have ever seen you write has ever indicated that you will be in that class of people – ever.]
Thanks SK – I am very familiar with the older Alan Jones audience. Many of them are friends and acquaintances . I’m not sure what the hold is that he has on them.
I’ve listened to Laws a few times since he’s been back and he’s certainly mellowed – says he admires the Pm even tho he doesn’t like all of her policies. He says that to callers who start the familiar rant about her.
Can anyone link the Jones interview this morning please. Hewson has just said on Agenda wtte that JG is some cool dude for standing up to Jones and besting him. Yeeha!
and notice how old fashioned tone is no one hardly ever mentions walletts these days.
lol its the card ect
The Mayor of Christchurch has been tremendous through all this.
[ps, the next time one of the oldies you know say something about julia, and this particulary tax on polluters is to just say]
my say, WE are “oldies”, though only the disintegrating body & eyesight remind me of that.
If I stripped off during a demo, I sure wouldn’t be wearing a La Perla bra, even if I found one for $5 in an OpShop … Aging Rocker (nearly the Big 70). Big Lillian Roxon fan. One of those bastards Premier Askin wanted “run down”. Green Ban picket line on The Rocks.
That’s seriously Burn the Bra era!
space keddette
how do you copy and paste tweets to include the names of the tweeter,
i used the ctrl button and c
200
BB I’m surprised. I didn’t think it would be that close?
[found one for $5 in an OpShop … Aging Rocker (nearly the Big 70). Big Lillian Roxon fan. One of those bastards Premier Askin wanted “run down”. Green Ban picket line on The Rocks.
That’s seriously Burn the Bra era!]
yes OZ Poll i remember that well, we took to the streets and where seen in the open the numbers where seen, we didnt care who saw us, but today the young one s hide behind twitter and face book with only some knowing who they are,
but then the good thing i suppose they can cover more territory but the comrade ship we felt out together in the anti Vietnam rallies will never make twitter ect seem better.
I was disgusted at the ABC News’ coverage of yesterday’s QT, but not surprised. They showed 30 seconds of Abbott’s frothing censure motion, including his misquoting of Shakespeare, then ten seconds of Gillard’s “hollow man” response; they showed Bronny’s POO accusing Gillard of being the “woman with no conviction” but didn’t point out that it got her sin-binned for an hour; then they closed the segment with the shot of the Oppos holding up the OO front pages quoting Gillard’s “no carbon tax” promise from last year, despite this having been ruled out of order by Harry J.
Who is it I need to email about this crap coverage? What’s her email address?
Let the Carbon Wars begin.
Fix bayonets.
Charge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
my say,
You position the cursor before the text you want to copy
Click on that position and hold that click and drag the mouse to the end of what you want to copy ( you will see the text highlighted) and release the click.
Control C copies the text
Then position the text where you want it placed and click then control v and it should be copied.
I hope that helps!
yes bk and NOT a media tart comes across so well and calm and reassuring.
I love NZ i have been in the church for a cuppa many a time a lovley resurant there
and across the road the IRISH pub we went there for lunch,
we stayed at the hotel up from the main street and made our way in to Christchurch every morning for a week,
We have been their 5 times and other areas, we went three times when OH officated at the world wheel chair games.
we have some charming lovley friends in athletics in CC
thank you SK
231 Ozymandias
I think Bh knows, them all,
Julia just slaughtered Neil Mitchell on 3AW. A brilliant interview despite the inane questioning.
Darn
Any particular gem?
Ok Bludgers, I am off to do the cherub school delivery run and then I am off for a swim. Be back later!
P.S. If anyone has the links to the Alan Jones and Neil Mitchell interviews could they post them here?
Ta in advance!
[take whatever nasty, or spiteful calumny has been perpetrated against your opponent by yourself, or one of your right wing attack dogs, then directly accuse your opponent of the same thing, despite the manifest untruth of the claim.]
Again noted: right wing projection – the tendency of right wingers to project their own behaviour/motivations onto others. Keep your eyes open and you witness this again and again and again.
Having watched Anna Bligh and now Bob Parker in Christchurch it just reinforces what a great part of the world we live in. Someone on PB some time ago passed the comment that we have it just about right with regulation and tax.
Think about Katrina if you need a point of reference.
my say @ 214
[BIG SHIP this was not my quote]
I know it was not your quote, which is why I said “Not sure who else you were quoting from here, my say” in my post @ 207.
I was not offering any criticism of you, or the person you are quoting, only commenting that the ALP should not apologise, or look like it is apologising for advocating progressive, left of centre policies.
A Government proposing progressive social and economic policies, properly sold to the people with appropriate levels of information and consultation, translates into votes at the ballot box, and no reference to ‘pandering’ need be mentioned, except by the Opposition and their supporters in the Murdochracy who will denigrate and deny all things Gillard no matter what the Government proposes.
SK
Ah yes, the joy of that moment. I’ll never forget the look on Alan Jones’ face when Chopper Read gave him the London incident with a rocket launcher on Kerri-ann’s show on 9. it was exquisite.
Signing off for the morning. Lawns, grass and car washing beckon.
Let’s hope Julia continues to cut swathes through the shock jocks this morning.
Ozy,
[Who is it I need to email about this crap coverage? What’s her email address?]
You could email Kate Torney, ABC’s director of “news”
torney.kate@abc.net.au
Plus here is the online generic contacts page for Their ABC. Find the complaint section to make a formal complaint. Select ‘Audience and Consumer Affairs’ in the drop-down.
http://www.abc.net.au/contact/contactabc.htm
BK
Here’s the link to the interview
http://www.3aw.com.au/blogs/3aw-generic-blog/gillard-flipflops-on-carbon-tax/20110224-1b6nw.html
Thanks Darn
Cuppa… Ta. Will do both.
Forget what I said about Laws’ mellowing. He’s just got stuck into JG and going in hard on ‘going back on her word’, etc. etc.
Now talking to Greg Combet.
Laws hates the Greens so he’ll be helping Abbott’s ‘people’s revolution’ along.
[BK
Posted Friday, February 25, 2011 at 9:05 am | Permalink
Having watched Anna Bligh and now Bob Parker in Christchurch it just reinforces what a great part of the world we live in. Someone on PB some time ago passed the comment that we have it just about right with regulation and tax.
Think about Katrina if you need a point of reference.]
That was me. The disasters in Australia showed that we pretty much have the right size govt to prepare for and deal with these things. We are neither a small govt country or a big government country. We fit snugly between the US and Europe. Paul Kelly in his last good insight noted the development of a distinct Australian way of making policy.
However, it is the Australian people do need some hardening up. We saw this in NZ where Bob Parker said “if in your suburb, you don’t have a working sewerage system; go a dig a latrine”. If an Australian politician said this he would have been castigated.
As we move into a more uncertain climate, we need to build our personal resilience and the govt needs to begin making this clear.