Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face

Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.

The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).

The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,972 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face”

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  1. [Would you rather Scott Morrison for Foreign Affairs or Tony Smith or my choice of whineplomacy???]

    Scott Morrison belongs in One Nation.
    Tony Smith is a colossal dud.

  3. [ML – take a point – yes she said whatever it is that she said in an election campaign before she had spent two weeks in the top job and before the hung parliament was a reality – if it gives you a little high. I am feeling generous tonight!]

    Thanks Gweneth! Is there a running score? I have lost count, but suspect I am losing!!!!

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. [Evan the best post for Pyne is something that requires him to leave Australia often 😀 ]

    He could always take over Dolly’s job in Cyprus! 😉

  8. Turnbull (PM) Bzzzzt
    Treasurer (Simon Crean) Hmmm
    Finance?(Bilson) Bzzzt
    Greg Hunt (Foreign Affairs) Srsly?????
    David Johnston (Defence or Mike Kelly?) Bilson would be just the ticket-kelly could do supply
    Education?(Gillard) HE- combet handles the others
    Health?(Christopher Pyne) Bzzzt
    Children and Society or whateveritscalled (Plibersek) Hmmm agree
    Att General?(Brandis) Bzzzt
    Trade?(Julie Bishop) Hmmm possible
    Immigration (J Moylan) Bzzzt
    Environment (Penny Wong) agree
    Indigenous Affairs (Ken Wyatt- too soon?) Bzzzt
    Agriculture (Robb) Bzzzt l

  11. Gusface we all bludgers should make up our National Unity Government incase of invasion/war 😀

    Leader -Malcolm Turnbull
    Deputy Leader – Tony Burke
    Treasurer – Hockey
    Finance – Bowen
    Defence – Bob Katter
    Health – Tony Burke
    Education – Gillard
    Foreign Affairs – Rudd
    Agriculture -Oakshott
    Communications/Broadband – Paul Fletcher
    Climate Change/Environment- Hunt
    Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane
    Silly Walks – P. Garrett
    Immigration – Michael Keenan
    Aging – Bronny
    Veterans Affairs – P Ruddock

  13. Gary

    some people here going to look pretty silly acknowleging Julia told a lie in th Election becaues in any long TV intaview she is going to repeat same words i’ve quoted her on ,

    Julia will say she said , no to a carbon tax (thats a diff altern) , yes to a price on carbon as aim , yes to a CPRS if Assmebly consensus , and yes a carbon tax 1 yr transiton was in that CPRS & always has been)

  15. The Liberals were a trainwreck today.
    Turnball looked embarrassed, so for that matter did Ruddock.
    And Hunt’s heart wasn’t in it.
    Look, I’m not the world’s biggest Julia fan – will always adore Rudd more – but the lady has my permanent admiration if she gets this carbon price instituted as legislation, considering that she’ll have almost the entire media lined up against her.

  17. Gus:

    glad to see you would consider at least 2 Liberal ministers (Bishop and Bilson).

    what about Tony Windsor? I reckon it would be a cracker of a Ministry with him in it. I don’t suspect that he would tolerate any of the flipflopping we have seen from all sides- hed just say it like it is.

  19. [Julia will say she said , no to a carbon tax (thats a diff altern) , yes to a price on carbon as aim , yes to a CPRS if Assmebly consensus , and yes a carbon tax 1 yr transiton was in that CPRS & always has been)]
    Agreed Ron.

  21. Clegg’s kicking more goals in the UK. Not a very funny joke.

    [UK deputy prime minister Nick Clegg said he “forgot” he was running the country as hundreds of British nationals remained stranded in Libya today.

    Clegg, who was left in charge while Prime Minister David Cameron was visiting the Middle East and North Africa, added he was “hoping to take the end of the week off.”

    Asked if he was in charge of the nation, Clegg told British newspaper the Metro, “Yeah, I suppose I am. I forgot about that.”]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/uk-deputy-pm-nick-clegg-forgot-he-was-in-charge/story-e6frea73-1226011640635

  22. [People who don’t want their utilities bills to rise thanks to Saint Bob and Jools]

    But look at the 46% electricity price rise we have had in W.A. over the last couple of years under Barnett? Thats got nothing to do with any price on carbon.

    And did Gillard lie?

    She stated that the ALP would put a price on carbon and would use a market mechanism to do it. No carbon tax. I have no doubt that she believed in what she was saying at the time.

    Then, after the election she didn’t have an absolute majority in the house and is looking at a Greens BOP in the senate come July. She has to craft something that can get through both houses regardless of her previously stated position. So, she has, by circumstances, been forced to change her position. Tough, but thats politics.

    She made a promise she couldn’t keep, but if she believed that what she said was true when she said it, she didn’t lie. And frankly, getting a price on carbon in place is more important than keeping a promise on how it would be done.

    You can compare it to Howard’s, “never ever” lie over the GST. He actively sought to go back on his word when the opportunity arose he was not forced into it by circumstance. Thats pretty good evidence that he lied in the first place.

  23. Ron – they aren’t interested in facts – you and I know that – toss them a point, move on. More important is that today we actually made PROGRESS! Sooner or later we will ALL have to put politics aside and solve the real problems that climate change is going to throw in our path. You are right. So am I.

  25. Leader -Malcolm Turnbull Bzzzt
    Deputy Leader – Tony Burke Hmmm
    Treasurer – Hockey Bzzzt Min for KFC
    Finance – Bowen Hmmm
    Defence – Bob Katter FMD
    Health – Tony Burke Bzzt Roxon owns health
    Education – Gillard Agree
    Foreign Affairs – Rudd Bzzzt talcum for sure
    Agriculture -Oakshott Hmmm
    Communications/Broadband – Paul Fletcher BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT Conroy is like roxon
    Climate Change/Environment- Hunt hmm
    Industry/Resources – Ian McFarlane Hmmm
    Silly Walks – P. Garrett WTF
    Immigration – Michael Keenan Bzzzt
    Aging – Bronny yes she is
    Veterans Affairs – P Ruddock yes he is

    🙂

  26. Well Glen……………there’d be no Abbott, Morrison, Bernadi, Bishop in my lineup from the Liberal side, and from the Labor side, no Swan, Shorten, Arbib, Farrell.
    Would definitely include Oakeshot, Windsor, Bandt and Crooke.

  38. I’d promote Mike Kelly, Andrew Leigh, Yvette Darth, and I’m rather keen on the new MP for Greenway – Michelle Rowland.
    Or Amanda Risworth, who’s turned Kingston into a rock solid safe Labor seat.
    What’s non-negotiable for me – Rudd, Burke, Macklin, Roxon as senior ministers.
    Prime Minister: either Gillard or Rob Oakeshot. 😉

  41. Sk – of course – first step in any bargaining is to set up the extreme log of claims. Then you can move in from there. Expect more of this. Only natural. The committee has called for discussion and input. But there are committees set up already for business to have input, and NGOs. This will be hard work. But doable.

  44. Gary
    Posted Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    Julia will say she said , no to a carbon tax (thats a diff altern) , yes to a price on carbon as aim , yes to a CPRS if Assmebly consensus , and yes a carbon tax 1 yr transiton was in that CPRS & always has been)

    ‘Agreed Ron.”

    so NO lie she told at all , people here can not join th 4 points i listed she said
    Julia was quite clever with her words to avoid a GBNT Eclecton scare

    (what she has changed to her 21/8 promises is
    A/ its now a min 3 yrs carbin tax transition time instead of 1 yr to a CPRS because Mexico Nov 2010 IPCC World Meet agree’s seem to be heading to a 3 yrs delay till a World CPRS comes about , if not later , and B/ no now promised review of othr Countrys CC actions in 2012 before she enacts (tho i think that was just a another clever 21/8 politcal caveat for an Election)

  46. Hate the beard, but love Oakeshott as a straight shooter -what you get is what you see!
    Glen: Liberals in my lineup would be………..Bilson, Hockey, Moylan, Russell Broadbent.

  49. Ron

    It’s kinda funny Gillard isn’t defending herself using those points.

    I wonder why that would be?

    And in other news, Assange has already appealed and it will take months. Sweden would be cold now. Much better in summer.

    [Mr Assange had faced being extradited within 10 days and held in jail in Stockholm with no possibility of bail but his barrister, Geoffrey Robertson QC, signalled an appeal process that could take many months.]

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