Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

NOTE: Server issues appear to have deprived the site of a day’s worth of data, hopefully not permanently. Here’s the post that went missing.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows no change on last week: the Coalition is on 45 per cent of the primary vote, Labor is on 37 per cent and the Greens are on 11 per cent, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. These results cover two separate periods of surveying from Tuesday to Sunday over the previous fortnight. Essential tells us that 90 per cent of those polled in the second of the two periods were questioned after the government’s flood levy announcement.

The headline-grabber over the short term is likely to be a question on respondents’ favoured method of funding flood reconstruction, which was formulated before the levy proposal was announced. The question is entirely reasonable given what was known at the time it was framed, but is wide open to misinterpretation in light of subsequent events. As such, we can shortly expect to hear tosh of the “78 per cent oppose the flood levy” variety, based on the fact that only 22 per cent picked this as their favoured option. Since respondents were allowed only one choice out of five, we have an entirely predictable result in which no one option was heavily favoured. “Scrap or postpone the NBN” attracted 28 per cent (or 72 per cent opposed, if you want to be dishonest about it), but “sell off Medibank Private” got only 2 per cent. Of the 10 per cent who chose “raise taxes on mining company profits”, I suggest most would settle for the flood levy if that was what was on offer. Twenty-four per cent opted for “postpone returning the budget to surplus”, which neither major party is advocating.

Fortunately, Essential Research did add an extra question on straight approval or disapproval of the flood levy after it was announced, the results of which will be announced on the Channel Ten news this evening (UPDATE: Actually George Negus’s program at 6pm). So do tune in for that, and take with a grain of salt anything you might hear from the news media in the interim.

The survey also canvassed which services would be better run by the private or government sectors. The government was overwhelmingly favoured for utilities, roads, public transport, prisons and universities, with the private sector favoured heavily for broadband and property insurance, and slightly for health insurance.

UPDATE: Essential Research has now published figures on the flood levy proposal, and it’s bad news for the government: 53 per cent disapprove (29 per cent strongly), against only 39 per cent who approve (12 per cent strongly). There’s some consolation for the government in that 41 per cent of Greens voters oppose the levy, suggesting some of the opposition is coming from the left – the 24 per cent who favoured keeping the budget in deficit, who are presumably even less impressed with Tony Abbott’s approach. Opposition is strongest in New South Wales and Victoria, with opinion evenly divided in Queensland (although samples here would have been fairly small). Since 45 per cent of the voting intention results come from after the announcement, the poll might be seen to offer evidence that the overall effect on voting intention has been neutral, although it’s not much to go on. A Newspoll tonight would be nice.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,528 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. blue=green:

    I notice that Morgan is comparing the phone poll results with the F2F results from the other week. A bit cheeky!

  4. [confessions
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    blue=green:

    I notice that Morgan is comparing the phone poll results with the F2F results from the other week. A bit cheeky!]

    they always do: don’t like to show the f2f bias.

  5. [I notice that Morgan is comparing the phone poll results with the F2F results from the other week. A bit cheeky!]
    Cheeky? It’s a disgrace. The results using each method are miles apart.

  8. I love how Morgan puts in his own views on policy in to his summary of the poll.

    [
    Gary Morgan says:

    “Today’s telephone Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (50.5%, up 2.5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll of January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011) now just ahead of the ALP (49.5%, down 2.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis.

    “Media coverage over the past week has been dominated by debate about how to pay for the infrastructure rebuilding required after the devastating east coast floods — and now Cyclone Yasi — and whether the Gillard Government’s proposed flood levy is sensible policy.

    “The Opposition is squarely against the flood levy as it claims the Government can pay for reconstruction by cutting ‘wasteful spending’ while the Government says the flood levy is required to ensure the Federal Budget is in surplus in financial year 2012/13.

    “In truth, no new taxes are required — Australia’s monthly iron ore revenue soared to an all-time high in December 2010 ($4.97 billion) which has been a major contributor to increasing the Australian trade surplus for December to nearly $2 billion. This week’s news boosted the Australia Dollar and means Government revenue will continue to increase substantially as minerals sales continue to grow.”

    ]

  11. madcyril:

    I laughed at the ‘editorialising’ on the no new taxes etc and linking to the iron ore revenue. Doesn’t Morgan have an interest in the resources sector? 😆

  15. Dear OzPol Tragic

    Just to say, it was Socrates, not I, who imparted that piece of the jigsaw.

    ” especially when, as crikey whitey noted, this is not his field of expertise:

    You probably know this, but andrew Dragun is an adjunct professor of economics. He is not a hydrologist. He has no training or experience about the operation of dams. He is writing an opinion piece with no expert value”.

    Please accept my condolences at such a sad and troubled time for you. Nothing today or in recent days is making it any easier for you and yours. We will all be thinking of you.

    Should you have sufficient energy, a letter to Anna Bligh or the local paper would not be out of order. One way of avenging, a little, maybe.

    XXX

  16. [
    I laughed at the ‘editorialising’ on the no new taxes etc and linking to the iron ore revenue. Doesn’t Morgan have an interest in the resources sector?
    ]

    confessions

    I had a chuckle as well. Not sure about his interests in the resources sector

    I’m still hanging out for a Newspoll. There has to be one this weekend, what with Parliament starting next week.

    I wonder if Fairfax will come out with a Neilsen poll in Februrary?

  21. Ozpol Tragic,

    [Life can be very difficult some times.

    I am sure you are receiving lots of support from those around you but if you feel like venting do it here. ]

    And if you need some help in the venting department, I’m sure Frank & Gus would ably assist as they are quite experienced in that area! 😉

  22. [
    are you tempted to guess what Newspoll will come up with?
    ]

    Not really vic, I have no idea. Hopefully a boost for the Government. Mainly, I’d like to see Abbott suffer a big dip in his personal approval ratings. I think he deserves it after his recent efforts

  23. At last, some relief from Yasi as a non-death zone. Now they’ve REALLY got something to write about:

    “Yasi: First death”

    “Bligh confirms Yasi Death”

    “One dead from Yasi”

    &etc. etc.

  27. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    I find Bolt trying to seed an idea of a class action against the government extremely repugnant. People should be on their knees thanking the fates they have such good leaders, not trying to find a way to make a quid out of it. Bolt is IMHO a treasonous worm.]

    Thanks for that, Puff. I’d almost forgotten about Bolt (I wish). I was trying to draw up a list for TURD OF THE WEEK. Abbott, of course is a runaway leader with his opposition to the Levy and then his fundraiser request. But Devine put in a bold effort in Twitter with her attempt to denigrate Bligh and then Overton has followed with her Much Ado piece.

    I was wondering if Barnyard, Pyne or Sophie might enter the field, but I’d overlooked the energetic Bolta.

    Still put Abbott ahead, but it’s a close field. Feel free to nominate others.

  29. SoulmanZ,

    [poor kid asphyxiated using a generator inside ]

    The ghoulish Libs are probably checking to see if there were pink batts in the house!

    They could really bash Gillard then.

  30. Abbott fails on flood plan: Wong
    13:07 AEST Fri Feb 4 2011

    Finance Minister Penny Wong says the federal coalition has failed to deliver on its promise to find a way to pay for the flood and cyclone recovery.

    The government plans to introduce draft laws to parliament next week that aim to impose a levy on middle and high income earners to raise $1.8 billion for the recovery effort.

    Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey last week promised to release an alternative funding plan by the time parliament resumes.

    Senator Wong said the lack of detail shows the coalition’s opposition to the levy is “pure politics”.

    “Mr Abbott’s failure to release his savings options highlights that since day one he has played politics with this crisis,” she said on Friday.

    “The government’s package to rebuild flood-affected regions is the right thing to do.”

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is meeting with his shadow cabinet in Sydney on Friday to discuss the coalition’s position on the natural disasters.

    Mr Abbott told reporters before the meeting the opposition’s response would focus on getting small businesses back on their feet.

    He also offered a bipartisan approach to finding budget cuts to fund the recovery.

    Mr Abbott plans to visit north Queensland on Saturday.]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/floods/8206499/abbott-fails-on-flood-plan-wong

    Its all bit ho hum from Wong really.

  31. Back again bludgers,

    I am only catching up now after spending all morning trying to recover data off my old PC, only to be given the shattering news that the actual drive is dead and I am going to have to go to a data recovery specialist.

    OPT,

    People may leave us, but their memories shine forever in our hearts and in a funny way they never really leave the fabric of our lives. Celebrate them and try not to mourn their loss. My heart is with you.

  33. [“Mr Abbott’s failure to release his savings options highlights that since day one he has played politics with this crisis,”]

    This sentence is terrible rhetoric. You would have to hear it a few times over to undertand what it means.

    How about:

    [Mr Abbott is late with his homework. He promised detailed cuts would be announced by now. What is his excuse? Did the dog eat his budget savings? Or is it just that Mr Abbott is all politics and no policy?]

    That would get you an online headline and a spot on the nightly news.

  34. The ghoulish Libs are probably checking to see if there were pink batts in the house!

    The School Halls did well, apparently.

  36. a couple of ‘Letters to the Editor’ in today’s CM

    [As Cycone Yasi was bearing down on north Queensland. promising destruction and terror on an unimaginable scale, our heroes in the Liberal Party, led by the indomitable Tony Abbott, were calling for donations from their supporters to fund a campaign to fight Labor’s proposed flood levy.

    I’ll be donating more to disaster relief. I suggest the Liberals forget political opprtunism for once and do likewise]

    and

    [In Queensland’s hour of disaster, what sort of inhumane leader is Tony Abbott that he would call for donations, not to help restore Queensland, but to help him make it harder for the Federal Government to raise the funds to assist people to revive after the twin disasters of floods and Category 5 cyclonic destruction?]

  37. Puff,

    As someone who has never had to care for anyone as yet, you have lifted the curtain on the systemic problems in looking after our older community members. I have to say you have opened my eyes and am shocked.

    You really need to care for yourself first. No one is going to take care of your oldie as well as you are, and to ensure his ongoing care, you need to be on top of your game, for you and for him.

    Feel a bit helpless in that I can’t offer more than comforting words from here.

  39. I hope someone tells RAbbott before he gets to NQ that he has already outstayed his welcome.

    While both state and federal governments were forced to deal with the issues, Abbott tried to white-ant them. Bad look.

  41. OzPol

    I missed the reference to a death and missing person in the first line of your message. Sympathy and condolences. I hope you are getting some support. Please know too that, a few mean-spirited politicans aside, the vast majority of people here in places like Adelaide do wish support to you all. Kindest regards.

  42. Further to the RBA statement and new growth forecast
    [The RBA is now expecting GDP growth of 4.25 per cent in the 12 months to December, 2011. That is higher than anticipated in its November statement.]
    That is back to the growth rates of the boom years under Howard. Once again, governmetn growth and budget targets will be met or exceeded. So about those “optimistic forecasts”, it looks like, even with some extraordinary natural disasters intervening, they are still not optimisic.

    The full statement is here.
    http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2011/mr-11-01.html

  43. [I’ll be donating more to disaster relief. I suggest the Liberals forget political opprtunism for once and do likewise]

    The donations email was always going to be a bad look for this very reason.

    No surprise that Tone and the Libs want to move on from the issue quick smart.

  46. [Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey last week promised to release an alternative funding plan by the time parliament resumes.]

    He just needs to find an old envelope to do the sums on.

  47. blue_green,

    This is the same shadow cabinet that deliberately buried an $11billion dollar black hole. Are Hogwarts going to run the ruler of this one?

  49. blue-green

    Would you or alternatively, if you would allow me, post your comment to Penny Wong.

    I would love if Zoomster posted her some pages back, comment to Julia or Penny for that matter.

Comments are closed.

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