Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

NOTE: Server issues appear to have deprived the site of a day’s worth of data, hopefully not permanently. Here’s the post that went missing.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows no change on last week: the Coalition is on 45 per cent of the primary vote, Labor is on 37 per cent and the Greens are on 11 per cent, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. These results cover two separate periods of surveying from Tuesday to Sunday over the previous fortnight. Essential tells us that 90 per cent of those polled in the second of the two periods were questioned after the government’s flood levy announcement.

The headline-grabber over the short term is likely to be a question on respondents’ favoured method of funding flood reconstruction, which was formulated before the levy proposal was announced. The question is entirely reasonable given what was known at the time it was framed, but is wide open to misinterpretation in light of subsequent events. As such, we can shortly expect to hear tosh of the “78 per cent oppose the flood levy” variety, based on the fact that only 22 per cent picked this as their favoured option. Since respondents were allowed only one choice out of five, we have an entirely predictable result in which no one option was heavily favoured. “Scrap or postpone the NBN” attracted 28 per cent (or 72 per cent opposed, if you want to be dishonest about it), but “sell off Medibank Private” got only 2 per cent. Of the 10 per cent who chose “raise taxes on mining company profits”, I suggest most would settle for the flood levy if that was what was on offer. Twenty-four per cent opted for “postpone returning the budget to surplus”, which neither major party is advocating.

Fortunately, Essential Research did add an extra question on straight approval or disapproval of the flood levy after it was announced, the results of which will be announced on the Channel Ten news this evening (UPDATE: Actually George Negus’s program at 6pm). So do tune in for that, and take with a grain of salt anything you might hear from the news media in the interim.

The survey also canvassed which services would be better run by the private or government sectors. The government was overwhelmingly favoured for utilities, roads, public transport, prisons and universities, with the private sector favoured heavily for broadband and property insurance, and slightly for health insurance.

UPDATE: Essential Research has now published figures on the flood levy proposal, and it’s bad news for the government: 53 per cent disapprove (29 per cent strongly), against only 39 per cent who approve (12 per cent strongly). There’s some consolation for the government in that 41 per cent of Greens voters oppose the levy, suggesting some of the opposition is coming from the left – the 24 per cent who favoured keeping the budget in deficit, who are presumably even less impressed with Tony Abbott’s approach. Opposition is strongest in New South Wales and Victoria, with opinion evenly divided in Queensland (although samples here would have been fairly small). Since 45 per cent of the voting intention results come from after the announcement, the poll might be seen to offer evidence that the overall effect on voting intention has been neutral, although it’s not much to go on. A Newspoll tonight would be nice.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,528 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 91
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  1. Comments that went missing in the most recent meltdown:

    1
    madcyril
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:34 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Hehe, back to the future!
    #

    2
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Bilbo,

    What was the problem?
    #

    3
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Madcyril,

    Where is my delorean? 😉
    #

    4
    madcyril
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:37 pm | Permalink | Edit

    SK

    And is the flux capacitor working 😉
    #

    5
    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:37 pm | Permalink | Edit

    #2

    Your guess is as good as mine.
    #

    6
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:38 pm | Permalink | Edit

    vp,

    scorps,

    You bastard!

    Just remember, you get more pqrn on PB! 😉

    STOP THE PURN!
    #

    7
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:38 pm | Permalink | Edit

    madcyril
    Now that is showing our age – but I have have to admit to being pretty jazzed with those hoverboards!
    #

    8
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:39 pm | Permalink | Edit

    William BowePosted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:37 pm | Permalink#2
    Your guess is as good as mine.

    You need a back up site for times like this.

    Hopefully all the data is still there – somewhere.
    #

    9
    Gusface
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:39 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Anyone get a sense of deja vu about this thread

    😉
    #

    10
    BK
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Hopefully all the data is still there – somewhere.

    Call Sloppy and see if it’s in his black hole!
    #

    11
    Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Edit

    victoria, if you are about, Rob from westpacifichurricane, has put together a new video about Yasi – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT1bmcv7GL4&feature=player_embedded#
    #

    12
    Allan Moyes
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Edit

    I hope we haven’t lost anyone in the confusion! 🙂
    #

    13
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Edit

    BK,

    😆
    #

    14
    Gusface
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:43 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Bk

    he mistook a server for a serving?
    #

    15
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:44 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Allan Moyes,

    😆
    #

    16
    Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:44 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Whoops, I should , of course, have said “WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM ”

    Rob has the same vid on his own site as well – http://westernpacificweather.com/
    #

    17
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:44 pm | Permalink | Edit

    So which form of abuse were we serving RAbbott when were interrupted?
    #

    18
    vp
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:45 pm | Permalink | Edit

    I’m of for 30 mins just to get sanity back. Can’t cope with Crikey’s unreality program.
    #

    19
    david
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Edit

    vp..I composed a Marabak reply, went to post and got an error message, posts for this topic are closed…dang it a wasted genius response 🙂
    #

    20
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Edit

    vp,
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

    Rod Hagan,

    Could you please ref again the shots of Yasi with those very menacing black bits?

    Did you see my post on what they are ?
    #

    21
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:47 pm | Permalink | Edit

    david,

    What happened to your alter ego?
    #

    22
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:47 pm | Permalink | Edit

    So do tune in for that, and take with a grain of salt anything you might hear from the news media in the interim.

    Forsooth, dear boy, when do we do any other?
    #

    23
    jenauthor
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:47 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Call Sloppy and see if it’s in his black hole!

    Unsavoury mental images happening here!
    #

    24
    jenauthor
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:48 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Could the link to the nude Julia photo be at fault?
    #

    25
    vera
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:48 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Did Conroy just filter us? 😉
    #

    26
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:49 pm | Permalink | Edit

    jenauthor,

    It was unsavoury images that took this site down 😀
    #

    27
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:50 pm | Permalink | Edit

    jenauthor,

    Maybe the U.S. were practicing with their NET Plug before the legislation got the green light.
    #

    28
    vera
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:50 pm | Permalink | Edit

    If there’s a newpoll tonight what time will we see it? On Lateline?
    #

    29
    vp
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:51 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Scorpio,

    Yes. Which is why I asked Rod Hagan. Some peeps would keep a record of “interesting comments.” I don’t. Short attention span, I guess. I hope you are not exposed in Rocky.
    #

    30
    Allan Moyes
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:54 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Rod

    That is scary! Looking at the size of it (which is almost the size of Qld from the video), is it possible that we will get heavy rain as far south as Brisbane/Gold Coast?
    #

    31
    madcyril
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:54 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Maybe it was Dennis Shanahan zapping poll bludger like Emperor Palpatine zaps Luke at the end of Return of the Jedi 👿
    #

    32
    Allan Moyes
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:56 pm | Permalink | Edit

    madcyril

    🙂
    #

    33
    vp
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 9:58 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Maybe it was Dennis Shanahan

    DS the geek? 😥

  15. Space Kidette@6

    I am almost too afraid to write anything in case it falls over.

    It’s another extreme weather event. The posts were washed away in the maelstrom preceding Yasi.

    But if you’re worried about losing a finely honed exposition, no worry, because according to the conspiracy theorists around here, every post on PB is collected, anally probed and freeze-dried, just in case, by all the political parties and most of the media, so anything “rolled gold” will be salvageable somewhere. 😆

  16. Castle posted this on the morgan thread.

    Can someone explain what this photo is all about?

    [News limited appears to have removed the facebook link from their front page.

    The fake nude Julia was displayed on their front page as one of six facebook friends that show at each time, click on the picture and it took you to a larger picture.

    No way it could have been overlooked. The large breasts were quite prominent and Julia’s face was very recognisable.

    As I mentioned before very classy of news, the same organisation that published the fake Hanson photos, but those did not display the same detail and level of full on nudity of the Julia photo.

    What sort of so called reputable news organisation displays a photo shopped full nude photo of the prime minister on its front page.]

  18. Rod Hagen

    If you are about. I managed to watch the link you posted from Rob at westernpacificweather re current situation with cyclone Yasi.
    He details quite clearly what to expect from this cyclone. Sounds like a monster.

  19. jv,

    every post on PB is collected, anally probed and freeze-dried, just in case, by all the political parties and most of the media, so anything “rolled gold” will be salvageable somewhere.

    I was more worried about breaking PB, but thanks for the laugh. I am laughing so loud my OH thinks I have lost it 😆

  24. victoria

    I asked Rod if he had any view of the spread of rainfall that would be associated with Yasi. If it tracks as expected, and looking at the size of it, we could have pretty heavy rain a fair bit to the north and south of the epicentre (if that’s the term). I’m not an expert, however, but the video looks scary.

  27. Allan Moyes

    according to Rob the weather guy (link as posted by Rod). He suggests that the rain band will be wide and cover a large area of Qld.

  28. [He details quite clearly what to expect from this cyclone. Sounds like a monster.]

    After Cyclone Mahina in 1899 they reported finding dolphins that had been dumped 15 metres up cliffs by the storm surge, victoria. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if similar stories come out of this one.

    Yes, it is going to be monster. Might be worth planning the next recovery levy now! 😉

  32. Vic

    from the morgan thread via castle

    [On the main page of the news ltd website, ie news.com.au, there is a box on the right about half way down that displays facebook friends of news ltd, a likebox. News.com.au on facebook.

    In this box are displayed five friends, that rotate every few minutes or so, appeared to be the latest additions.

    The five displayed were mark, andy, lloyd tina and emma with pictures.]

  33. WTF is going here?

    It reminds of an interjection to the Ming in the Parliament debate way back when:

    “Mr. PM, what about the Prostitution Bill?”

    Ming: “Pay it, dear boy, pay it”

    Bilbo, have you paid your bills? 👿

  34. Rod Hagen

    meanwhile the media and the opposition remind me of Nero playing the fiddle while Rome burns. Truly, I feel like we are in the twlight zone.

  40. kezza2,

    Yes, the cut to the National Rental Affordability Scheme has just flown under the radar. Who cares about the homeless?

    Concerns were expressed, however, by the Greens Party who put out a media release about it which as far as I can see was not picked up by the MSM (not that I am complaining ;-): )
    [“Surely we can find a way to redirect funding other than gutting a program aimed at making sure people have a roof over their heads,” he said. “Deferring the top end corporate tax cuts planned for July 1 2013, while keeping the tax cuts for small business, would net the government about $1.7 billion in the forward estimates – that is more than six times the amount to be cut from NRAS.”]
    http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/big-cuts-affordable-housing-program-will-worsen-crisis%5D

    Other media releases:

    1. National Shelter: http://www.shelter.org.au/archive/mr1101nrascuts.pdf
    2. Community Housing Federation of Australia: http://www.chfa.com.au/sites/default/files/node/323/nras_capping_for_flood_relief_docx_13628_4_pdf_12197.pdf
    3. ACOSS: http://www.acoss.org.au/media/release/acoss_supports_floods_levy_but_questions_proposed_spending_cuts

  41. [news had a link to facebook site that had a photoshopped image of JG naked]

    the photoshop image was also on news ltd front page, not just on the link.

    They appeared to have removed both the photo and the link as noted.

  42. finns

    Look what Rod H posted!!!

    After Cyclone Mahina in 1899 they reported finding dolphins that had been dumped 15 metres up cliffs by the storm surge

    Go way out to sea, stay away from the cliffs!

  47. Oh gee! I thought I had been banned or something.
    Just watching Zeitgeist and am totally convinced 9/11 was a big con job. 😆
    Gee, and the assassination of Kennedy just after he announced he was going to expose the ghosts running their own agendas, big money elites.
    The banks don’t fair too well either.
    Be back some time later.

  50. What has happened , a reverse time machine . whmIo left 4 hrs ago there hundreds of bloggs posted on this Thread tho only of mine Did sex become subject after i left

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