Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

NOTE: Server issues appear to have deprived the site of a day’s worth of data, hopefully not permanently. Here’s the post that went missing.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows no change on last week: the Coalition is on 45 per cent of the primary vote, Labor is on 37 per cent and the Greens are on 11 per cent, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. These results cover two separate periods of surveying from Tuesday to Sunday over the previous fortnight. Essential tells us that 90 per cent of those polled in the second of the two periods were questioned after the government’s flood levy announcement.

The headline-grabber over the short term is likely to be a question on respondents’ favoured method of funding flood reconstruction, which was formulated before the levy proposal was announced. The question is entirely reasonable given what was known at the time it was framed, but is wide open to misinterpretation in light of subsequent events. As such, we can shortly expect to hear tosh of the “78 per cent oppose the flood levy” variety, based on the fact that only 22 per cent picked this as their favoured option. Since respondents were allowed only one choice out of five, we have an entirely predictable result in which no one option was heavily favoured. “Scrap or postpone the NBN” attracted 28 per cent (or 72 per cent opposed, if you want to be dishonest about it), but “sell off Medibank Private” got only 2 per cent. Of the 10 per cent who chose “raise taxes on mining company profits”, I suggest most would settle for the flood levy if that was what was on offer. Twenty-four per cent opted for “postpone returning the budget to surplus”, which neither major party is advocating.

Fortunately, Essential Research did add an extra question on straight approval or disapproval of the flood levy after it was announced, the results of which will be announced on the Channel Ten news this evening (UPDATE: Actually George Negus’s program at 6pm). So do tune in for that, and take with a grain of salt anything you might hear from the news media in the interim.

The survey also canvassed which services would be better run by the private or government sectors. The government was overwhelmingly favoured for utilities, roads, public transport, prisons and universities, with the private sector favoured heavily for broadband and property insurance, and slightly for health insurance.

UPDATE: Essential Research has now published figures on the flood levy proposal, and it’s bad news for the government: 53 per cent disapprove (29 per cent strongly), against only 39 per cent who approve (12 per cent strongly). There’s some consolation for the government in that 41 per cent of Greens voters oppose the levy, suggesting some of the opposition is coming from the left – the 24 per cent who favoured keeping the budget in deficit, who are presumably even less impressed with Tony Abbott’s approach. Opposition is strongest in New South Wales and Victoria, with opinion evenly divided in Queensland (although samples here would have been fairly small). Since 45 per cent of the voting intention results come from after the announcement, the poll might be seen to offer evidence that the overall effect on voting intention has been neutral, although it’s not much to go on. A Newspoll tonight would be nice.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,528 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  4. Ozpol Tragic,
    You and yours have my sincerest condolences. I know words are not much, but please know that we care about you, and hope you find some patches of comfort in this grief.
    Hugs,
    Puff.

  7. retiredleftie @ 4277

    Haven’t seen you on here before. Welcome!

    [the big game is “KILL THE NBN”. They have got Julia gillard fighting on many different fronts spreading lies and misinformation on an hourly basis.]

    You are so right!

  12. Victoria,
    [it was moi, saying you could wreck your back. ]
    Sorry, it was you!

    You are right. I am really going to have to do something different. I cannot keep hauling him around.

  14. lizzie 4216

    “Is it time for Qantas to go back to the drawing board?
    Or is it just that Qantas is the one that is reported the most”??

    I meant to respond earlier.

    A little thing.

    The CEO of Qantas, who I happen to have known in an earlier life, is David Epstein, former Chief of Staff to Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister.

    Epstein resigned his post at Kevin’s a few months before Kevin was ousted. Type David Epstein/Kevin Rudd/qantas etc and you will find among others:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/rudds-man-under-pressure/story-e6frg6no-1111116783547

    Admittedly.

  18. BW @ 4264

    [Just because Mr Franks says something is true does not mean that it is true]

    Indeed – Franks’ team wrote a paper purporting to prove that global warming had no effect on the drought in the MDB.

    This paper was debunked by a team led by Dr Cai which included Bureau of Meteorogy scientists who analysed the same dataset and applied corrections for latitude which (surprisingly) removed the spurious trend.

    Franks appears to be a favourite at The Australian however.

  20. Vic

    He has had a few bad days. Julia making decisions has appeared to wrongfoot him. It seems the Arbistas are temporarily banished. They will come roaring back when the climate debate happens.

    I think things have turned but I dont think his goose is cooked just yet.

  22. If a more moderate Liberal is elected leader I’ll be interested to see if Helen Coonan returns to the front bench, or whether she’s winding down to retirement. Her term expires in 2014.

  25. Ozpol Tragic

    Every best wish from me as well.

    Life can be very difficult some times.

    I am sure you are receiving lots of support from those around you but if you feel like venting do it here.

  26. OPT 4336

    Nice to hear from you again; hope you are OK.

    I posted the information about Dragun because, like you, what he claimed annoyed me. It was a lie, and a very nasty one. I am in Adelaide but collegues in Brisbane familiar with the hydraulic situation said the opposite of what Dragun claimed. They felt the Wivenhoe authorities had done an excellent job. Without their intervention the flood levels would have been another 2 metres higher, and higher than 1974.

    In fact, water inflows into the Brisbane River for the 2011 flood were higher (peak 12000 m3 per second) than the 1974 flood (9000 m3 per second). The dam managers frantically let water out at max. flow on the Tuesday to create spare capacity in the reservoir. Then they closed it up while the Toowoomba – Lockyer Valley floodwaters went past the dam. At this point the dam level reached 190% of capacity. After the Lockyer Valley floodwaters had passed they then let the Brisbane Valley (Esk etc) floodwaters out in acontrolled release over the following three days, because there was still a risk of another cyclone coming in.

    To judge the dam management this finely the SEQ Water people would have had engineers up all night watching water levels and rerunning their hydraulic models. Suggesting they did nothing is false to the point of being offensive. In fact, I have never seen Brisbane City Council and the State government cooperate so well. (Campbell Newman deserves credit here as well as Anna Bligh; it takes two sides to cooperate).

  28. [But Tony reneged.]

    Mr Conviction Politician strikes again!

    Seriously though, I always had Gash tagged as an Abbott type Liberal.

  29. Questions from yesterday’s presser with Abbott. He had a rough time.

    [In light of this destruction in Cyclone Yasi, would you now reconsider your opposition to the flood levy?

    Where do you think savings can be found?

    Are you disappointed at the party’s decision to put a call for donations to the anti-flood tax campaign under your signature?

    But donations specific to that policy made it look a bit embarrassing, didn’t it?

    If it is standard practice [inaudible]?

    Are you embarrassed by it?

    Did you say anything to anybody who was responsible for putting your signature on that?

    People are still asking a lot of questions, so maybe it hasn’t been dealt with. You know, we just want to know, is it something you are annoyed about or embarrassed by it?

    Did it lack sensitivity this time, given that the debate is about how to fund the flood reconstruction?

    Would you consider taking some of those donations and putting them towards the flood victims?

    You obviously can’t write and review everything that comes into your office or in your name. I mean do you take any steps in the future to review those correspondence and those public letters [inaudible]?

    Just in regard to the flood and cyclone rebuilding. I mean, in the lead up to every election, governments and oppositions promise budget savings. What makes you feel that you can actually achieve enough Budget savings for such a massive infrastructure spend and given that in Queensland and New South Wales there’s a real lack of infrastructure spending as it is?

    So is it safe to say that in future natural disasters that state governments and their constituents can rely on the Federal Government to come to the table and provide the funds to rebuild?

    Would you be happy to support a smaller tax, given that there’s only so much you can cut out of the Budget?]

    http://liberal.org.au/Latest-News/2011/02/03/Tony-Abbott-Press-Conference.aspx

  33. [Would you consider taking some of those donations and putting them towards the flood victims?]

    Ouch!

    Where were these types of questions during the election campaign?

  35. [victoria
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    b-g

    and the Iron man Tony crumbled under the pressure.]

    Yes and No. He didn’t give them a headline. He stonewalled.

    [The Liberal Party did add that. It’s standard practice for political parties to add a call for donations to the messages that they send out to supporters. It’s my understanding that the Labor Party also had donations information on a flood message that it sent out last week.

    Well, as I said its standard practice for political parties in their messages to supporters to include information about donating and, as I understand it, the Labor Party sent flood information to people last week and that also included information on how to donate.

    Look, I think I’ve dealt with the issue. I don’t think there’s anything more to say on it.

    As I said, I’ve dealt with the issue.

    I think the matter has been fully dealt with and are there any other subjects that you want to ask about?

    As I said, political parties as a matter of course tend to put donation information on their communications with supporters and that was the case here as it was with the Labor Party last week.

    As I said, I think I’ve fully dealt with this and I’m happy to deal with other subject but I’m just not sure there’s anything I can add on this one.

    As I said, I think that particular issue has been fully dealt with, but one of the things I did on Australia Day was host a barbeque at Queenscliff Surf Club in conjunction with the Salvation Army, which raised $3,000 for flood victims. Now, I think that all of us should do our bit and I’m delighted that so many Australians have done their bit for the victims of the floods and other disasters.

    As I’ve said a couple of times already and I’m glad to repeat it for your benefit: the donation information was something that was added by the Liberal Party and it’s quite standard practice for political parties to add this sort of information to their communications with supporters.]

  36. OPT — sorry to hear your news … take care of yourself and those you love

    Puffy — get your back fixed ….don’t put it off.

    I waited 2 years … unbelievable pain … felt and moved like 70 instead of 50, had a disc replaced and a fusion in June last year … am now totally pain free and agile again and kicking myself for wasting 2 years of my life ‘putting up with it”. I don’t know where you are, but I had a magnificent surgeon who wasn’t as expensive as I expected if you need one.

  39. Ta Vic

    I like a cut down version of Abbott’s answers

    [I think I’ve dealt with the issue.

    As I said, I’ve dealt with the issue.

    I think the matter has been fully dealt…

    As I said…

    As I said, I think I’ve fully dealt with this.

    As I said, I think that particular issue has been fully dealt with…

    As I’ve said a couple of times already and I’m glad to repeat it for your benefit…]

    straight talking?

  40. As I’ve said a couple of times already and I’m glad to repeat it for your benefit: the donation information was something that was added by the Liberal Party and it’s quite standard practice for political parties to add this sort of information to their communications with supporters.

    They didn’t make the “signature” connection.

    It was over his signature…

    “Does this mean we can only trust some things that have your signature? Will you tell us which signed statements are to be believed and which ones aren’t?”

  42. I score January 2011 a clear win for Gillard.

    February not starting out so well for Abbott either and Gillard is doing Prime Minister well.

    BTW, I am waiting for Gillard to state flat out that the sooner Abbott stops blocking $3 billion worth of Government sponsered savings in the Senate, the better.

    Abbott is walking straight into another episode in the saga of: hypocrite, sleazoid personal ambition, anti-Queensland assistance.

    If I were Abbott I would beware the Ides of March.

  46. [BTW, I am waiting for Gillard to state flat out that the sooner Abbott stops blocking $3 billion worth of Government sponsered savings in the Senate, the better.]

    Yes, i wonder why this point has not been made. Swan’s been out and about today, why doesn’t he say something?

  48. Morgan Phone Poll has a massive boost for ALP over their previous Dec phone poll

    [L-NP (50.5%, up 2.5%) now ahead of the ALP (49.5%, down 2.5%)

    Finding No. 4626 – This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last three nights, February 1-3, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 561 electors.: February 04, 2011

    The latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, February 1-3, 2011, shows the L-NP (50.5%, up 2.5% from the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll of January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011) now just ahead of the ALP (49.5%, down 2.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis.

    The L-NP primary vote is 42.5% (up 1% from the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll of January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011) clearly ahead of the ALP 35% (down 5.5%), Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 12% (up 0.5%) and Others/ Independents soaring to 10.5% (up 4%).

    If a Federal election were held now the L-NP would win a close election.]

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4626/

  50. confessions

    I should add, he has already mentioned the NBN and selliing Medibank private. But he has to come up with other suggestions, because the govt does not agree to those.

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