Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

NOTE: Server issues appear to have deprived the site of a day’s worth of data, hopefully not permanently. Here’s the post that went missing.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows no change on last week: the Coalition is on 45 per cent of the primary vote, Labor is on 37 per cent and the Greens are on 11 per cent, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. These results cover two separate periods of surveying from Tuesday to Sunday over the previous fortnight. Essential tells us that 90 per cent of those polled in the second of the two periods were questioned after the government’s flood levy announcement.

The headline-grabber over the short term is likely to be a question on respondents’ favoured method of funding flood reconstruction, which was formulated before the levy proposal was announced. The question is entirely reasonable given what was known at the time it was framed, but is wide open to misinterpretation in light of subsequent events. As such, we can shortly expect to hear tosh of the “78 per cent oppose the flood levy” variety, based on the fact that only 22 per cent picked this as their favoured option. Since respondents were allowed only one choice out of five, we have an entirely predictable result in which no one option was heavily favoured. “Scrap or postpone the NBN” attracted 28 per cent (or 72 per cent opposed, if you want to be dishonest about it), but “sell off Medibank Private” got only 2 per cent. Of the 10 per cent who chose “raise taxes on mining company profits”, I suggest most would settle for the flood levy if that was what was on offer. Twenty-four per cent opted for “postpone returning the budget to surplus”, which neither major party is advocating.

Fortunately, Essential Research did add an extra question on straight approval or disapproval of the flood levy after it was announced, the results of which will be announced on the Channel Ten news this evening (UPDATE: Actually George Negus’s program at 6pm). So do tune in for that, and take with a grain of salt anything you might hear from the news media in the interim.

The survey also canvassed which services would be better run by the private or government sectors. The government was overwhelmingly favoured for utilities, roads, public transport, prisons and universities, with the private sector favoured heavily for broadband and property insurance, and slightly for health insurance.

UPDATE: Essential Research has now published figures on the flood levy proposal, and it’s bad news for the government: 53 per cent disapprove (29 per cent strongly), against only 39 per cent who approve (12 per cent strongly). There’s some consolation for the government in that 41 per cent of Greens voters oppose the levy, suggesting some of the opposition is coming from the left – the 24 per cent who favoured keeping the budget in deficit, who are presumably even less impressed with Tony Abbott’s approach. Opposition is strongest in New South Wales and Victoria, with opinion evenly divided in Queensland (although samples here would have been fairly small). Since 45 per cent of the voting intention results come from after the announcement, the poll might be seen to offer evidence that the overall effect on voting intention has been neutral, although it’s not much to go on. A Newspoll tonight would be nice.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,528 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. S
    Not sure about atheists and lesbians, but if my direct personal observations over a lifetime of pernicious insitutional and personal racism towards Indigenous people is anything to go by, it would require a disproportionate and magnificent effort for an Indigenous woman to reach a position of power.

  3. Puff

    “Where is the best places to find this morning’s pressers by the pollies, plz? I am busy in the mornings and miss them”.

    All Lib Nats will be found on TV, Radio, any ABC station, all Sky, every Murdoch publication.

    Dunno about the others.

  5. Here is the AAP write up

    [No need for flood levy if fat cut: Abbott
    11:00 AEST Fri Feb 4 2011

    Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott maintains the government should cut the “fat” in its budget instead of imposing a levy to pay for reconstruction work in flood-ravaged areas.

    Mr Abbott also declined to say which of the independent MPs the opposition may speak to about the Labor government’s proposed flood levy.

    The opposition is against to the one-year levy, which would affect taxpayers on salaries above $50,000, to raise $1.8 billion to help pay for reconstruction work in Queensland and Victoria.

    “I think everyone who is familiar with the commonwealth budget knows that there is fat in the budget,” Mr Abbott told reporters at Parramatta in Sydney’s west.

    Mr Abbott did not specify which government programs should be cut to raise the funds.

    “The important thing is to marshall argument and that’s what I’ve been doing,” he said.

    “The important thing is to let the Australian people know that the Liberal Party is on their side.”

    Federal parliament resumes next week and is set to debate the flood levy plan, with the government requiring cross-bench support for it to pass.]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/floods/8206406/no-need-for-flood-levy-if-fat-cut-abbott

    he wont get more than a sentence on the nightly news with that drivel

  6. Oldie was physically very weak last night and this morning, and I almost had to carry him to make his transfers. Every-time I do this and think of Gina Bloody Reihhart and Twiggy Fecking Forrest et al and the money that there is not there to properly look after oldies, disabilities and at risk younguns, (including indigenous) and that mob of parasitical sociopaths spending $20mill to make sure we don’t collect our inheritence of the wealth of this land to look after the people in it, my mind goes to ‘interesting’ places. 😡

  7. [“The important thing is to let the Australian people know that the Liberal Party is on their side.”]

    Perhaps they are starting to think otherwise. I see pressure building.

    Has anyone been writing to Lib MPs

  9. Happily, it sounds like Abbott is failing to cut through. The angry, aggressive ranting is not the tone required at this time.

  10. b-g
    [Perhaps they are starting to think otherwise. I see pressure building.

    Has anyone been writing to Lib MPs]
    Why?
    I am not going to tell them where the ticking parcel is.

  12. “The important thing is to let the Australian people know that the Liberal Party is on their side.”

    Apart from the fire, flood, cyclone affected, I mean.

  14. b-g

    where is the pressure building from. the media? Poor little Tony, they asked him a few questions about his email, and he crumbled.

  15. Shorter Abbott: “I’m here to complain, not to offer any solutions.”

    And he sees marshalling argument as letting Australians know he’s on their side, does he? Good luck with that, Tony.

  16. c-w
    [All Lib Nats will be found on TV, Radio, any ABC station, all Sky, every Murdoch publication.]
    True, I must be a bit sleepy this morning.

  18. [victoria
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    b-g

    sounds like a lot drivel for sure. Can you think of which independents he can get on side at this point?]

    Any Indy (other than Katter) who shows signs of helping Abbott on a marquee issue will be hounded by the press and the public.

  21. Morning All. Am putting together a ‘Lie-O-Meter’ for Mr Rabbott this year. Here’s the first entries … Any more that I missed? (Also — let me know if these are inaccurate — actual quotes would be helpful!

    Teflon Tony’s 2011 Lie-O-Meter

    • Feb 3: “I hosted a BBQ for the flood victims”
    Sorry Tony, you attended a BBQ hosted by a charity.

    • Feb 3: “It is standard practice – the Labor Party has sent out a similar email appealing for donations”
    Sorry Tony, the Labor email gives links to all the flood appeals, help numbers and charitable organisations – there is NO request for party donations. The Liberal email specifically requested donations for the party coffers to fight the levy proposal.

  22. [victoria
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    b-g

    where is the pressure building from. the media? Poor little Tony, they asked him a few questions about his email, and he crumbled.]

    I imagine the presser yesterday would have been disconcerting. As with a small series of op-ed criticisms. I wonder if MPs have been nervous nellies.

    BTW I heard a 2GB presenter this morning editorialising about Labors terrible IR laws and how the unions are about to wreck our country. The IR wars have begun.

  25. [• Feb 3: “I hosted a BBQ for the flood victims”
    Sorry Tony, you attended a BBQ hosted by a charity.]

    I have been looking for evidence either way about this. Can’t find anything.

  26. b-g

    why would they start on IR laws. For goodness sake we have low unemployment. In fact, there will be capacity constraints in future.

  27. [where is the pressure building from.]

    From Liberals who are perhaps starting to question whether their leader has the right skills and the right rhetoric for these times. Brandis the other day said he didn’t know about the fundraising email when asked. JBishop has been invisible – most unlike her when you think about how she’s conducted herself previously as deputy. And Tone’s usual good judgement has failed him, maybe a sign he’s feeling the pressure. Remember when Rudd was being white-anted how he lost his ability to communicate?

  29. [victoria
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    b-g

    why would they start on IR laws. For goodness sake we have low unemployment. In fact, there will be capacity constraints in future.]

    Increase in strike action and a few chunky wage claims (wage inflation etc)

  32. [victoria
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 11:28 am | Permalink

    confessions

    there is definitely something changing with the Rabbott. Did he not lose his COS recently?]

    Press Sec

  36. Good Morning Bludgers.

    I’ve had close relatives, friends & former students (one dead, one missing since 10 January) affected by all Q’s recent Natural Disasters, most recently in Far NQ. Following 2010’s trauma, nothing else seems to matter much at present; so I’ve pulled in my horns & decided this my time to grieve. I still drop in occasionally.

    But there’s no way I can let Dragun’s misinformation stand unrefuted. No way he’s done any credible documentary checking (let alone decent research) on the topic before going public – and, from a senior academic, that’s plain unethical, especially when, as crikey whitey noted, this is not his field of expertise:

    [You probably know this, but andrew Dragun is an adjunct professor of economics. He is not a hydrologist. He has no training or experience about the operation of dams. He is writing an opinion piece with no expert value.]

    A search of online Chronicle (Toowoomba) newspaper will show his statements re when Wivenhoe Dam started to discharge water are JUST NOT TRUE! Reference? No less a personage than Toowoomba’s Mayor Taylor (Liberal) plus his Council members & letter writers.

    Reason? We’d being paying a motza for Wivenhoe water pumped up the Range (so it had been “discharging” water for months). Taylor et al publicly (as well as officially) lobbied Premier Bligh for cost-free access to as much discharge as could be pumped up & the TRC responsible only for pumping’s electricity & maintenance. I can’t recall the exact date (& don’t feel like searching back copies); but it was weeks (or more) before 10 Jan – early Dec. when dams were at c7%, I think. In addition, water discharge over spillways attracted sightseers – and Bris TV showed video of that.

    Given Taylor & “Chainsaw” are (behind LNP tag) Libs, MLA Horan Nat, all can refute Dragun’s untruths. They haven’t. As Locals are discussing. Small town people do!

    Other than that? I congratulate OO & other Murdoch minions, as well as public comments by RAbbott & his RW faction, for their unstinting efforts to get Anna Bligh re-elected in a landslide (plus a near wipeout of Q’s Federal LNP). Queenslanders are fiercely parochial & loyal; more fiercely the further north & west they live. The CM, Cairns Post & T’ville Bulletin have been far more circumspect.

    For their inclusive consultation & Disaster Management in dealings with affected areas’ mayors, MLSs and MPs (irrespective of political affiliation) as well as frequent, unassuming visits to all affected areas, willingness to take on Insurance Companies (CBA has already buckled) and reassurances that assistance & rebuilding will be delivered asap, Anna & Julia are winning near-“unstinted” praise from the most respected Q LNP members, like Bris Lord Mayor Cam Newman & Leichhardt Electorate’s Warren Entsch. This morning, Bob Katter was almost fulsome.

  38. Here comes the Abbott hates Queensland lines

    [Tony Abbott in Ipswich firing line

    * Local News

    4 Feb 11 @ 10:24am

    Shayne Neumann has taken a swipe at Tony Abbott over a verbal fight over funding for flood-affected Ipswich.

    The Federal Member for Blair today accused the Opposition Leader of being “greedy and self-centred” over comments on flood funding.

    “Once again, Mr Abbott has proved that he’s more interested in political gain than helping to rebuild Queensland,” Mr Neumann said.

    “In the aftermath of two natural disasters in Queensland, he was sending out emails exploiting those natural disasters to raise money for the Liberal Party.

    “While the rest of us are digging deep to support fellow Queenslanders, Tony Abbott is asking Australians to dig a little deeper to support the Liberal Party.

    “Tony Abbott never misses an opportunity to put his own selfish political interests and opportunism first, ahead of the national interest.”

    Mr Neumann said that Australians expect their leaders to put aside their own interests at times like this.

    “Not Tony Abbott. He has shown once again that he is incapable of putting the national interest before his own opportunistic political interest,” Mr Neumann said.

    “He’s played politics from day one of this crisis, and he is playing politics now.

    “If a levy was good enough for Mr Abbott to pay for his election promises last year, how is it not good enough to help rebuild Australia after the floods?

    “With Tony Abbott’s proposed paid parental leave scheme, business would have been slugged with his 1.5 per cent levy from 2012.

    “In stark contrast, the Federal Labor Party will deliver business a tax cut from next year.”

    Mr Neumann stated that the proposed flood levy will require 60 per cent of taxpayers to pay less than a dollar a week.

    “We are asking someone on $80,000 a year to sacrifice $2.88 a week – that’s less than a cup of coffee,” Me Neumann said.

    “The Federal Labor Government recognises the need to rebuild roads, bridges and ports to get the Queensland economy up and running again. We will be introducing our floods rebuilding package into the Parliament next week.”
    ]

    http://ipswich-news.whereilive.com.au/news/story/federal-member-for-blair-shayne-neumann-takes-swipe-at-tony-abbott-over-ipswich-flood-relief/

  39. Fess,
    I am already have an appointment for a CT scan of my back. I am seriously going to have to book some respite soon. I am putting it off for as long as possible. I am also soon going to see the duty labor senator here. The dept of health investigated my complaint and said everything was fine as, between his service provider and me, he was getting adequate care, but I needed three hours respite a week, so put that into the program.

    I am about to appeal that pointing out that his service provider is providing little and I can’t adequately care for him. I am going to take all the papers then and see the senator.
    To say it is okay that he gets 12 hours care a week from $42,000 funding a year is ridiculous.

    For 24 clients a provider gets $1mill in funding. If I had $1mill for 24 clients, even with high insurance, oh&S and reporting costs, they would be living the life of Riley at home.

    Some one was talking about rorting in Job Network programmes, well, in-home aged-care services need to be gone through like a dose of Epsom Salts.

    Thanks bloody JWH for turning community programs into private businesses. Of course Mongrel Moany Tony is an acolyte of the hateful Howard.

    sorry for the rant fess, well, not really! 😆

  41. OPT

    Great to hear from you. Your thoughts are always appreciated.

    My heart goes out to you during this wretched time. I wish there was a way to sooth your grief, but I do not have the cure. I doubt anyone does.
    The most difficult part of living is the grief we are confronted with. In fact, after all is said and done. The winter of grief is the mountain we all must climb.

  44. PTMD

    It was moi, saying you could wreck your back. I am quite serious about it actually. I have friends who also are carers, and have back injuries, which are causing them long term problems now.

  47. [strong words from Neumann, and spot on too!]
    These are the people that need to be saying these things. The mps in the thick of it.

  48. HI OPT,

    (Pardon the OT),

    Was it you who wrote in complimentary terms about ‘The Silent Miaow’ by Paul Gallico? Happy to report that, going through some boxes of books recently I unearthed my copy. A rereading finds it as charming and insightful as ever.

  49. Mr Abbott did not specify which government programs should be cut to raise the funds.

    Of COURSE not! That way he keeps his options open to whine and whinge about whatever they cut.

    Method 1: Cuts to Programs the Liberals Love
    We hate this. This shows how cruel the government is.

    Method 2: Cuts to programs the Liberals hate
    We always said this was useless program, but the government persisted. This just shows what hypocrites they are etc. etc.

    All this has been predicted well in advance. It’s so easy, it almost writes itself.

    Yasi Bootstrap Blueprint

    1. Abbott criticises cuts while refusing to say what he would cut.

    2. OO finds someone to support Cut #1 and condemn Cut #2.

    3. OO finds someone to condemn Cut #1 and support Cut #2.

    4. Ditto for Cuts #3 to #n

    5. Dual campaign: Abbott and OO criticse government for waste and extravagance. Proof: because they were able to make cuts.

    6. Bonus points if they can find flood victims who have been the subject of cuts. Flood victims get front page color vox-pop treatment.

    7. If NBN is not cut (and it won’t be) articles pointing to “elephant in the room”.

    8. Opinion pieces start out about inept managers of economy.

    9. Mesh in with Anna Bligh’s failure to insure against disaster.

    10. In complete contradiction to (9), run a campaign saying that Yasi wasn’t such a disaster at all (already appearing – as a kite-flying exercise – in comments to just about every story today). Make sure both lines are run simultaneously, but on opposite sides of the page.

    11. Institute a “Levy Revolt”, complete with torches and pitchforks, angry mobs outside Centrelink offices (these will be imaginary, so no photos possible).

    12. Start calling Gillard/Bligh response “debacle”, “catastrophe”. Suggested headline “Real catastrophe is Gillard, not Yasi”.

    Do I need to go on?

  50. Disappointing to hear retired politics professor Dean Jaensch spouting Liberal lines on the ABC this week; e.g. the levy’s bad because how do you know they won’t waste the money as they did with the education revolution and the pink batts program.

    You’d hope Dean would know that the schools building project has been well received on the ground and that both schemes did the job by stimulating our economy when recession threatened.

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