Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The first federal opinion poll of the new year is from Morgan’s face-to-face surveying last weekend, covering 855 respondents. This finds Labor recovering slightly from the previous poll of December 11-12, which on the headline figure had them trailing for the first time in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, Morgan has been somewhat erratic in choosing which of its two-party measures to use for the headline: “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, or “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election”. Lately they have been using the former, although the latter is universally recognised as more reliable. The score on the former measure has gone from 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition to 50-50, while on the latter it has shifted more modestly from 50-50 to 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor. My policy is to ignore the Morgan headline and favour the previous election measure. However, more significant than the distinction between the two is the obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.

The primary vote figures make clear that the Labor recovery on the headline two-party result is entirely down to a larger share of non-major party voters nominating Labor as the party to which they would direct their preference, which coming from a sample of about 150 is unlikely to be very meaningful. Labor’s primary vote is in fact up by less than the Coalition’s, by half a point to 38.5 per cent, with the Coalition up a full point to 44 per cent. The Greens are down half a point to 13 per cent.

UPDATE (16/1): The first Essential Research for the year finds no change on voting intention whatsoever since December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party, with primary votes of 46 per cent Coalition, 38 per cent Labor and 10 per cent Greens. However, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings: approval up eight points to 51 per cent and disapproval down four to 36 per cent (her best figures since July 19), with an increase in her lead as preferred prime minister from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions relate to respondents’ online shopping activities.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,666 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  2. I never said they were crims. i am curious that they are seeking asylum in aus and was reported they are donating. Cash or labour donation was not specified so i am asking a ?
    geez

  3. j6p – I despair. PBers were rightly concerned for you when the water hit your home because you were less fortunate than those of us who are outside the flood zone.

    I think you could have a little concern for those unfortunate asylum seekers who leave their homes in distress to seek a safer life. Their willingness to donate, whether from their own funds or the meagre amount they get from the Govt, speaks volumes about their humanity.

    They are the type of people we want in this country.

    You have disappointed me.

  4. j6p
    Cash, I believe. There was footage on SBS of a (Brisbane?) muslim community donating cash and signing up for volunteer work. I just wish that footage had been aired on 9, 7, 10 and 2. Perhpas it was.

  5. BH
    Don’t get to dissapointed i am asking the ? that will be asked .
    devils advocate as they say.
    I was very appreciative of the support i got thru the recent floods.
    My ? are ones that will be asked !

  6. jp6

    Think of detention centres as being the same as flood evacuation centres except that the flood is a flood or torture, murder, looting and raping for political reasons.

  9. [They are the type of people we want in this country. You have disappointed me.]

    BH, as Dino Jones once infamously quipped: “the terrorist has got another wicket”.

  12. [111 davePosted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 9:02 pm | PermalinkJ6p –
    My ? are ones that will be asked !
    The really relevant question is is your humanity.
    ]

    What humanity – next he’ll be questioning donations from people in Prison.

  16. Gus, for your benefit:

    [Monday, 7 August 2006, 16:48 GMT 17:48 UK – Aussie Jones sacked over TV slur. Dean Jones was referring to South African batsman Hashim Amla. Former Australia batsman Dean Jones has been sacked by a Sri Lanka television station after an offensive remark he made was heard by viewers live on air.

    Jones called South Africa batsman Hashim Amla “the terrorist” when he took a catch during the second Test against Sri Lanka in Colombo. ]

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/cricket/5253722.stm

  17. [Joe6packPosted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 9:13 pm | PermalinkDave/frank
    selective posting at it,s best apply for a job with TA.
    cya tomorrow
    ]

    What selective posting – you made a statement – we responded.

    But like the others you run away when it’s not the response you desired.

    how typical.

    And as for working for Tony Abbott – that question the sort of thing HE would ask – so perhaps it should be YOU who should be seeking eployment with him.

  19. Joe6pack@115

    Dave/frank
    selective posting at it,s best apply for a job with TA.
    cya tomorrow

    Good. Run away like a rat with your tail between your legs.

    I’m not surprised or disappointed.

  20. [And as for working for Tony Abbott – that question the sort of thing HE would ask – so perhaps it should be YOU who should be seeking eployment with him.]

    frank

    its a fair q

    joe bogan is probably using such Q’s to justify their deep seated rascism

    tho JSP aint a racist i think

  21. [how typical.]

    Frank, in the words of AB:

    [“As we weep for what we have lost, and as we grieve for family and friends and we confront the challenge that is before us, I want us to remember who we are,” she told reporters.

    “We are Queenslanders. “We’re the people that they breed tough, north of the border.

    “We’re the ones that they knock down, and we get up again.”]

    I can only assume that it dont apply to the Muslims.

  24. Just watching the cricket in Brisbane, flicking channels came upon on channel 7 with David Koch interviewing Qld political reporter Patrick somebody.

    Said Julia had to be careful not to be seen as a political opportunist WTF. What about Abbott. I honestly give up.

  25. The Finnigans@121

    how typical.

    Frank, in the words of AB:

    “As we weep for what we have lost, and as we grieve for family and friends and we confront the challenge that is before us, I want us to remember who we are,” she told reporters.

    “We are Queenslanders. “We’re the people that they breed tough, north of the border.

    “We’re the ones that they knock down, and we get up again.”

    I can only assume that it dont apply to the Muslims.

    Kindly clarify how that conclusion could reached from the above quote FFS.

  30. Gusface

    we expect tolerance and understanding, but perhaps don’t always extend it to those who may be ignorant and need our tolerance and understanding.

    capish?

  31. [tho JSP aint a racist i think]

    Gus – I know he isn’t. He just asked the question on the wrong site but he’s right. It will be all over the place tomorrow on bogan radio.

    Early start tomorrow so I’m off to hit the sack. Night all.

  49. Finns

    i apologise for dave

    You have no standing to make such statement and will never have.

    Finns started this crap with his totally unnecessary and uncalled for terrorist / Muslim crap.

    Finns needs to provide the basis of that argument if he has a lucid one ?

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