The first federal opinion poll of the new year is from Morgan’s face-to-face surveying last weekend, covering 855 respondents. This finds Labor recovering slightly from the previous poll of December 11-12, which on the headline figure had them trailing for the first time in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, Morgan has been somewhat erratic in choosing which of its two-party measures to use for the headline: “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, or “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election”. Lately they have been using the former, although the latter is universally recognised as more reliable. The score on the former measure has gone from 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition to 50-50, while on the latter it has shifted more modestly from 50-50 to 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor. My policy is to ignore the Morgan headline and favour the previous election measure. However, more significant than the distinction between the two is the obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.
The primary vote figures make clear that the Labor recovery on the headline two-party result is entirely down to a larger share of non-major party voters nominating Labor as the party to which they would direct their preference, which coming from a sample of about 150 is unlikely to be very meaningful. Labor’s primary vote is in fact up by less than the Coalition’s, by half a point to 38.5 per cent, with the Coalition up a full point to 44 per cent. The Greens are down half a point to 13 per cent.
UPDATE (16/1): The first Essential Research for the year finds no change on voting intention whatsoever since December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party, with primary votes of 46 per cent Coalition, 38 per cent Labor and 10 per cent Greens. However, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings: approval up eight points to 51 per cent and disapproval down four to 36 per cent (her best figures since July 19), with an increase in her lead as preferred prime minister from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions relate to respondents’ online shopping activities.
Adam thanks. I have a kind of mental map in my head for PBs and like to know where they are from. You seem to me to be a genuine fighter for the left. Kudos. The left is an interesting collection of different countries.
[AdamPosted Tuesday, January 18, 2011 at 1:09 am | PermalinkAnd Tony Abbott.
Bob Brown’s in stellar company really.
East Timor off-shore processing? Citizen’s Assembly?
Guess who came up with those rippers?
]
“Whoosh”
Two over-reaches from Brown in the space of a week, and Tone blathering away like he always does. I think the men need to shut up and just let the women get on with things.
[Adam thanks. I have a kind of mental map in my head for PBs and like to know where they are from. You seem to me to be a genuine fighter for the left. Kudos. The left is an interesting collection of different countries.]
Thanks it certainly is. Just keeping the ALP Right honest 😉
[Two over-reaches from Brown in the space of a week, and Tone blathering away like he always does. I think the men need to shut up and just let the women get on with things.]
Oh okay. Is this going to morph into the old “why don’t you love Julia? You’re just a sexist”?
FWIW, I disagreed with BB on the online shopping tax but understood the argument he was making and while his choice of language on this “culprits” could’ve been better I think it would be an excellent idea to slug the fat cats to pay for it.
Anyway I will leave Frank and Adam – two fighters for the left – fighting fair I hope. Goodnight all. Work tomorrow.
[2655 AdamPosted Tuesday, January 18, 2011 at 1:18 am | PermalinkTwo over-reaches from Brown in the space of a week, and Tone blathering away like he always does. I think the men need to shut up and just let the women get on with things.
Oh okay. Is this going to morph into the old “why don’t you love Julia? You’re just a sexist”?
FWIW, I disagreed with BB on the online shopping tax but understood the argument he was making and while his choice of language on this “culprits” could’ve been better I think it would be an excellent idea to slug the fat cats to pay for it.
]
And an example of the Greens being beyond scrutiny, and thus makes a total mockery of:
[Just keeping the ALP Right honest
]
🙂
Bring out the violins for the Coal Barons:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/17/3114866.htm
Been on Whirlpool tonight on some of the NBN threads. Libs are out in force but getting pretty repetitive. Some are quite funny though and still having the debate about whether Julia G is actually a legitimate PM.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/queensland-floods/queensland-announces-commission-of-inquiry-into-devastating-floods/story-fn7iwx3v-1225989885254
Its headlined:
“PREMIER Anna Bligh yesterday bowed to pressure to set up an inquiry with the powers of a royal commission, as the death toll from the flooding hit 20.”
What Crap! Days ago she was saying there would be an inquiry. Said nothing about it being a Royal Commission at the time and frankly, i think she probably had more important things to think about. Now the OO is making it look like she had to be pushed into it!
They are scum. 🙁
imacca – they are paddling as fast as they can 😉
nite
The OO are definitive bottom feeders. In that article:
[The Australian yesterday revealed expert concerns that water releases held back in the week prior to the Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley deluge kept Wivenhoe Dam at dangerously high levels and worsened flooding in Brisbane.]
So, they appear to link the flash floods that have gotten so much coverage to the Wivenhoe Dam level issue. No mention that they are in different catchments and physically unrelated. This lot are getting REALLY low now.
Have vented by sending that last load of shite from the OO to media watch with my complaints about it.
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR 🙁
[So, they appear to link the flash floods that have gotten so much coverage to the Wivenhoe Dam level issue. No mention that they are in different catchments and physically unrelated. This lot are getting REALLY low now.]
There was a water policy expert from ANU on The Drum tonight and he basically said the whole “build more dams” thing is more a political issue than an important one and the possibility of it would only be a side issue among a number of other things. He said one thing this will do is allow the govt’s to look at whether we’re building homes too close to big rivers etc which can be prone to flooding.
He made a few points about waste water and flash floods being more common in future due to climate change too and made a lot of sense and funnily enough supported BB’s idea to slug the big coal miners to pay for the whole clean up & rebuilding.
Insurance ,,,A National Scheme
If Julia Gillard wants to win support from all sides,let her introduce a National Insurance Scheme… paid for by a levy like that used for Medicare.
In 1975,Whitlam introduced just such a scheme but it was defeated in the Senate by the conservatives…who won applause from the Insurance companies…and I’ve no doubt they funded the Libs at the next election.
Such a scheme would guarantee coverage for flood and fire and other natural disasters, which the Insurance vultures are now trying to avoid doing.
Go on Jjlia..it would be a game/changer/ winner ..in the current situation !…and after June the Greens who will control the Senate would give it support..and you have the numbers in the House.
Whitlam wasn’t so lucky. you are….make it a winner !!
New thread.