The first federal opinion poll of the new year is from Morgan’s face-to-face surveying last weekend, covering 855 respondents. This finds Labor recovering slightly from the previous poll of December 11-12, which on the headline figure had them trailing for the first time in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, Morgan has been somewhat erratic in choosing which of its two-party measures to use for the headline: “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, or “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election”. Lately they have been using the former, although the latter is universally recognised as more reliable. The score on the former measure has gone from 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition to 50-50, while on the latter it has shifted more modestly from 50-50 to 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor. My policy is to ignore the Morgan headline and favour the previous election measure. However, more significant than the distinction between the two is the obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.
The primary vote figures make clear that the Labor recovery on the headline two-party result is entirely down to a larger share of non-major party voters nominating Labor as the party to which they would direct their preference, which coming from a sample of about 150 is unlikely to be very meaningful. Labor’s primary vote is in fact up by less than the Coalition’s, by half a point to 38.5 per cent, with the Coalition up a full point to 44 per cent. The Greens are down half a point to 13 per cent.
UPDATE (16/1): The first Essential Research for the year finds no change on voting intention whatsoever since December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party, with primary votes of 46 per cent Coalition, 38 per cent Labor and 10 per cent Greens. However, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings: approval up eight points to 51 per cent and disapproval down four to 36 per cent (her best figures since July 19), with an increase in her lead as preferred prime minister from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions relate to respondents’ online shopping activities.
My policy is ignore Morgan.
Sorry to carry this one over but Ru’s previous comment needs rebutting.
“If anyone thinks Anna Bligh is not being coached by psychologists, expert in disaster management, in what she is saying. Then they are muppets.”
Absolute rubbish. You have obviously never been involved in a crisis management situation.
She is being given top class briefings by experts and using previous media training to deliver that information very professionally.
If you seriously think people in situatons like these have times for “coaching” sessions with “psychologists” then you are the one who should be pulling on the Kermit outfit.
Frank had a whinge about this Nick Butterly column in The West in the previous thread, but it nicely expresses points that frequently come to mind to any objective observer of the PM:
[But the hand signals and nodding are not just distracting and annoying, they’re insulting and condescending.
The PM and other ministers are schooled by media advisers to carry on with this rubbish as part of efforts to craft their image. The traditional logic for this coaching was that the PM would likely be given a “grab” of no more than about two seconds of footage on the commercial news that night. In that brief moment it was best to have the leader looking like a leader, with grand sweeps of the hands used to drum home the line they want to get out that day.
But with the growth of 24-hour news more Australians are seeing the press conferences of our politicians in full, and more are questioning what on earth they are doing carrying on like that.]
[If you seriously think people in situatons like these have times for “coaching” sessions with “psychologists” then you are the one who should be pulling on the Kermit outfit.]
Come off it, she is getting briefings by experts, including how to keep morale high. A job she is doing magnificently.
William
Your post says a lot to me!
The sun was nice again today ru. 🙂
TSOP
Apology accepted!
[But with the growth of 24-hour news more Australians are seeing the press conferences of our politicians in full, and more are questioning what on earth they are doing carrying on like that.
]
But the majority of Australians srtill rely on that 2 second grab on the 6pm News – like it or not.
Frank Calabrese
agree with you on that one.
not already , i am betting there is a newspoll this week end.
re franklyn and the inteview
The CM has had good coverage of the floods in the last couple of days, concentrating more on people’s stories.
I thought I had the wrong paper as the ‘letters to the editor’ are fulll of praise and thanks for AB.
Abbott would be very upset with his one sentence over the last couple of days.
@Rua “including how to keep morale high”
The extra piece certainly changes the way your comments read to me. Apologies for what was a reaction based on the way I inaccurately interpreted your comments. I took them to mean her entire performance was staged.
@William
Spot on. Sadly, the atmosphere on here sometimes means even the most constructive comment regarding JG is misconstrued as an attack.
[The sun was nice again today ru]
Getting a bit humid, time for arvo storms soon.
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 37 seconds ago
JG going to the Basketball in Townsville tonight. Flood charity match. #qldfloods]
blackdog
good to see the Courier Mail being generous for once!
It’s a bit like the ‘moving forward’ thing.
Pollies are trained for the 30 second grab. So any message they want to get across they will repeat over and over, so that it’s almost impossible for the media NOT to run it.
So Julia, in using ‘moving forward’ multiple times in a speech was simply doing what all pollies do.
But in her case, the media decided to make her look idiotic by stressing the repetition.
(To be fair, they once did the same with a presser of Costello’s, but nowhere to the same extent).
Victoria
I know. I really expected to see a picture of Abbott in a helicopter or doing something. It will probably be in tommorrow’s paper.
blackdog
I bloody well hope not!
[zoomsterPosted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 6:43 pm | PermalinkIt’s a bit like the ‘moving forward’ thing.
Pollies are trained for the 30 second grab. So any message they want to get across they will repeat over and over, so that it’s almost impossible for the media NOT to run it.
So Julia, in using ‘moving forward’ multiple times in a speech was simply doing what all pollies do.
But in her case, the media decided to make her look idiotic by stressing the repetition.
(To be fair, they once did the same with a presser of Costello’s, but nowhere to the same extent).
]
and not a word uttered in Criticism when Tony Abbott’s pressers contained nothing but Stop The Boats and Great Big New Tax.
The double standards are breathtaking.
The problem is that the media will move on soon, probably by monday but La Nina is still there and will be for a few months to come.
In fact winter will weaken her but may not kill her off.
This is not the end, it is the beginning. 🙁
Frank Calabrese
again I have to agree with you! 😉
Well guys, I can report exactly where they are locating the groceries for the drops – Northern Gold Coast. Just went shopping – no milk, no break, no long life milk huge amounts of groceries gone from shelves.
[I bloody well hope not!]
It better not be. I will have to have a quick look before breakfast just in case.
I have probably spoken too soon, but I must say the local channel 9 news have also focused on peoples’ stories, and proper information, (no politics, NO ABBOTT), nothing from yesterday at all.
There was a lovely on local 10 news with Julia at the evacuation centre at the showgrounds on the second day when she got a finger painting as a present from one of the children. There were a lot of people waiting to meet her and they genuinely seemed happy to see her. Reporter also commented that she had brought a lot of excitement and boosted morale.
[Spot on. Sadly, the atmosphere on here sometimes means even the most constructive comment regarding JG is misconstrued as an attack.]
Unfortunately Gillard does get attacked for pedantic reasons a lot, so you will have to forgive her supporters for sometimes being overzealous in their approach.
I was more angry because I have people over there (some of whom I care about) and was worried to death about them and trying to ascertain if they were alright (the ones online) was being drowned out with criticisms of Gillard’s fashion choices or how she is a failure because she isn’t as good as Bligh.
That wasn’t directed at anyone on here, btw. More on places like Twitter.
(the people whom I care about aren’t on Twitter, btw. But there are some Twitter buddies I was a little worried about)
ruawake
the weather is going to be a challenge no doubt. The government just needs to continue to focus on getting the state up and running as best as possible. Whatever criticism to come their way needs to be dealt with in a sensible manner.
[What will be Abbott’s first question when Parliament sits?]
PM, how can we trust you?
How can we trust a Labor Gillard Govt with the reconstruction of QLD. This Labor Govt that cannot deliver on the pinkbatts, on the BER, on the Green Loans, on the Superclinics, on the NBN. Mr. Speaker, I can go on and on.
We simply cannot trust this Govt to do the right things by the people of QLD. If this PM has any decency left in her, her Govt should resign and let the Coalition takes over. We will re-build QLD for the people of QLD and we can be trusted. :kiss:
[But the hand signals and nodding are not just distracting and annoying, they’re insulting and condescending.]
i did advise Jules way back to do away with her karate chops
My husband is also in the transportable building game. He is working full time, every day of the week til further notice.
[Just went shopping – no milk, no break, no long life milk huge amounts of groceries gone from shelves.]
SK
It is really wierd. I also went shopping this morning in south west of Brisbane and the only bread left was white bread, and only a few litres of some strange milk were sitting there.
On a lighter note, it is good to see that the healthier bread is the one that is being sold, although I suspect that maybe they make more white bread.
TSOP
You are entitled to be frustrated. I have been frustrated with Abbott and some of his lap dog journo friends giving him the chance to politicise this tragedy. Actually, it has made me extremely angry. People have lost their lives, and a State is drowned in water, and what does Abbott do, create the atmosphere of fear and anger!!
[obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.]
This is totally illogical, your saying people will be more likely to will lie when asked a question “face to face”?.
blackdog,
Funny you mention the ‘strange milk’. All that was left on the shelf was goats milk and buttermilk and only two containers of each! I sat their giggling when an older lady came up behind me and said “that is exactly what I did”.
[Well guys, I can report exactly where they are locating the groceries for the drops – Northern Gold Coast. Just went shopping – no milk, no break, no long life milk huge amounts of groceries gone from shelves.]
I did my normal 2 weeks shop today, went to Caloundra Aldi almost no fruit and veg, limited meat mainly beef of high quality. Had a cuppa with mum, then to Peregian Springs Coles no fruit and veg except a bag of rotting carrots, also no frozen veg of any kind, yuppie bread in limited supply, in the meat dept again eye fillet steak aplenty a few yuppie chooks and a sad looking duck.
Then to Wollies in Coolum, everything in stock, even fresh baked bread from the bakery.
So supermarkets aint supermarkets, it pays to shop around (of course if you have the time).
Just about to watch local channel 9 news. I hope not to see that image macdyril saw in Melbourne.
Apart from coaching from media advisors from another era, and I frankly wouldn’t know the first thing about it, to be truthful, I had a few thoughts about the criticism of JG being wooden or robotic in some pressers.
It occurred to me that she would be well and truly aware of the hatchet job done on Rudd by the media, particularly the Canberra Press Gallery. She would be well and truly aware of how things she says and does are being picked over for “evidence” she’s not up to the job. She knows the gov’t. are on a thin edge in being a minority gov’t.. May be she’s just being somewhat defensive in her presentation in circumstances she expects to have a hostile, nit picking and at times, downright rude and disrespectful reception. I dunno how you get past that, but given some of the behaviour towards her that many bludgers have noted, it wouldn’t surprise me that she steels herself as well as she knows how in those circumstances.
That said, I still think the MSM fancy themselves as players who can make or break governments. Otherwise why are jerks such as Franklin being “interviewed” on ch. 9?
“i did advise Jules way back to do away with her karate chops”
What did she say? 🙂
Gos, obviously she ignored me, at her own peril. 👿
Evening all
(1) Did Morgan do the polling before or during the floods? If during the floods, would the sample have been skewed by people whose phones were under water?
(2) I have noticed that, since the floods, the usual culprits have completely stopped the use of the term ‘brand Labor’ (as in ‘brand Labor is on the nose’).
Token image of Abbott standing around doing nothing. He got called one of the pollies along with Qld treasurer.
Still 50 minutes to go.
In other news, Abbott stomped on some kittens heads today. The evening news just showed him holding the kittens. His approval set to soar.
Gillard on the other hand blinked too much in a press conference today. How much more can this country take of this tyrant?
Saw this piece from the Boltman
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/how-the-deranged-left-pointed-the-finger-at-palin/
and thought, “wow, the deranged right pointing a finger at the deranged left pointing a finger at sarah palin”… and now I need a lie down.
[If during the floods, would the sample have been skewed by people whose phones were under water?]
Boerwar, it was a face to face, I assume Morgan cornered the market in flippers and floaties. 🙂
Q. Mr Abbott. Given the size of the task, the scarcity of resources and the amount of stress that will no doubt be present over the next many months what do you think should be a reasonable satisfaction level and work defect rate?
I see that ML, clever Do-nothing, is still hiding from my last challenge in relation to his climate science ‘problem’ du jour.
Yo ho ho
can’t bring myself to read Bolta. Have not noticed in the Herald Sun of late. Is he still writing for them?
rua
ta.
TSOP
It is truly ridiculous and frustrating how much media he gets.
This is actually an improvement on what he normally gets here, although as I was saying before, it has been dominated by what has been happening and all the heartbreaking stories, as well as all the volunteers and ADF support, reporting the information. This is what the news should be.
First sitting day of Parliament is 8th February. Please Labor have the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed. Abbott is going to let loose with his hatefest.
[Have not noticed in the Herald Sun of late. Is he still writing for them?]
Boltman allows the masses entrance to his boltworld on occasion. I notice it through news.com.au, which means he’s probably still writing for the herald sun. Fantastic times.
And on a relarted note – in WA despite Carnarvon still sufferng from the floods and a major Bushfire – our beloved Premier goes on holidays leaving the Acting Pemier holding the fort – nd not a word of criticism from our local media.
Had it been a Labor Premier on the other hand……