Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The first federal opinion poll of the new year is from Morgan’s face-to-face surveying last weekend, covering 855 respondents. This finds Labor recovering slightly from the previous poll of December 11-12, which on the headline figure had them trailing for the first time in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, Morgan has been somewhat erratic in choosing which of its two-party measures to use for the headline: “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, or “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election”. Lately they have been using the former, although the latter is universally recognised as more reliable. The score on the former measure has gone from 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition to 50-50, while on the latter it has shifted more modestly from 50-50 to 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor. My policy is to ignore the Morgan headline and favour the previous election measure. However, more significant than the distinction between the two is the obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.

The primary vote figures make clear that the Labor recovery on the headline two-party result is entirely down to a larger share of non-major party voters nominating Labor as the party to which they would direct their preference, which coming from a sample of about 150 is unlikely to be very meaningful. Labor’s primary vote is in fact up by less than the Coalition’s, by half a point to 38.5 per cent, with the Coalition up a full point to 44 per cent. The Greens are down half a point to 13 per cent.

UPDATE (16/1): The first Essential Research for the year finds no change on voting intention whatsoever since December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party, with primary votes of 46 per cent Coalition, 38 per cent Labor and 10 per cent Greens. However, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings: approval up eight points to 51 per cent and disapproval down four to 36 per cent (her best figures since July 19), with an increase in her lead as preferred prime minister from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions relate to respondents’ online shopping activities.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,666 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. 1,200 military personnel in Brissy. Mine sweepers in the river and Morton bay. But of course this is not the Federal Govt at work.

  2. Interestingly a quick google of Abbott on floods gets one recent link – to a high-tech website about his stop the NBN comments.

    The appeal to insurers the ABC ran today in Perth was not even news. He first said it on 3 January.

  3. Yo ho ho

    I hear some of his comments during the floods about the desal plant in Qld currently mothballed, and what a waste of money it was. Someone forgot to tell him that the desal is being used at moment because of the water situation.

  4. Living in Brisbane the main evening news services 9,7 and 10 have been apolitical for the most part. Stories about the PM have been fair, little interest in Abbott which is also fair because he can contribute nothing ( like any opposition leader) at this time. Anna and the Lord Mayor going well.

    Mainly just straight out flood and human interest pieces.

    Don’t know how it has been inter state or on ABC news ( refuse to watch ) but here in Brisbane credit where credit is due.

    Julia’s visits have been well received so perhaps the whingers are the typical sit on your arse and complain type.

    Won’t say too much more. Still a bit shitty about the petty reactions to the PM.

  5. I predict that there will be a legal industry income tsunami. Coronials. Royal Commission. Insurance battles. Lawsuits – surely someone was negligent enough to sue?

    Floods and floods of money to the legal industry.

  6. Doyley

    good to hear how the news is being reported where you are. I understand your feelings re reactions to the PM. I am with you.

    ruawake

    I just went to BOM site, and it stated that no cyclone would be affecting Queensland.

  7. [ JuliaGillard Julia Gillard
    It was a real privilege to meet the people of Grantham today. So much courage, so much hurt and so much to do to rebuild. JG
    46 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  8. From Tracey Spicer:

    [spicertracey Tracey Spicer by clubwah
    70 asylum seekers in detention centre donate to QLD flood appeal. Radio ranters – stick that in ur pipe and smoke it.
    25 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  9. [Gillard on the other hand blinked too much in a press conference today. How much more can this country take of this tyrant?]

    TSOP:

    Thank you for expressing what has exasperated me for days with the anti-Gillard nonsense we’ve been seeing.

    On Morgan: A poll! The season is starting anew. Presumably Newspoll to follow this weekend, and the others in their wake. Time for Poss to crank up the Pollytrend. πŸ™‚

  10. [This is totally illogical, your saying people will be more likely to lie when asked a question β€œface to face”?]

    Morgan face-to-face polls always have Labor tracking at least three points higher than everything else, and they always have Labor much higher in the final pre-election poll than what they actually achieve at the election. Don’t ask me why.

  11. [(1) Did Morgan do the polling before or during the floods? If during the floods, would the sample have been skewed by people whose phones were under water?]

    The poll was conducted last weekend, when there was certainly extensive flooding, but before the Toowoomba and certainly the Brisbane episodes. You raise an interesting point though – presumably Morgan will have all sorts of trouble conducting its normal weekend face-to-face polling in large parts of Queensland this weekend.

  12. [Morgan face-to-face polls always have Labor tracking at least three points higher than everything else…]

    Will be interesting to see if this continues. All polls seem to be fixed at about 50-50

  13. [spicertracey Tracey Spicer by clubwah
    70 asylum seekers in detention centre donate to QLD flood appeal. Radio ranters – stick that in ur pipe and smoke it.
    25 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

    Is this the girl from SkyNews? Betcha the shockjock callers are saying they donating our tax money.

  14. Why do I get this in my emails “couldnÒ€ℒ”

    How do I correct it please. Got no idea why a ‘ turns into those silly things.

  15. [William BowePosted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 8:04 pm | Permalink(1) Did Morgan do the polling before or during the floods? If during the floods, would the sample have been skewed by people whose phones were under water?
    The poll was conducted last weekend, when there was certainly extensive flooding, but before the Toowoomba and certainly the Brisbane episodes. You raise an interesting point though – presumably Morgan will have all sorts of trouble conducting its normal weekend face-to-face polling in large parts of Queensland this weekend.
    ]

    Unless they decide to poll at the Evacuation Centres πŸ™‚

  16. [The PM and other ministers are schooled by media advisers to carry on with this rubbish as part of efforts to craft their image. The traditional logic for this coaching was that the PM would likely be given a “grab” of no more than about two seconds of footage on the commercial news that night.]

    William – perhaps the PM should be taking acting lessons from the person Abbott is seeing!

  17. I’ll let the Retweet describe this best:

    [
    freocookster John Cooke
    Sattler? RT @G_Parker: a new push for recognition of gay and lesbian relationships – and from a source you might not expect.
    3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  18. j6p @ 86

    What makes you assume that asylum seekers have to be penniless to be looted, tortured, raped or killed for political reasons in their country of origin?

  19. Abbott has less compassion & “humanitas” than an amoeba. His attempts to politicize the tragedy of the Qld floods is despicable. The MSM are accessories in their failure to expose his despicable stunts & rants. Don’t hold your breath for the MSM to scrutinize Abbott’s coalition committee to investigate the building dams in the next 12 months. As with his other brainfarts, it will be conveniently forgotten.

  20. Boerwar
    As they are in detention centers i assume they have nothing so i am curious how they stumped up the cash. Volunteering there labor to help like so many others are doing is a
    excellent gesture.

  21. many Qlders are relying on the kindness of friends, strangers and the govt. during this natural disaster. What if these people had nowhere they could turn to for accommodation and support, and the govt ostracised them for whatever reason. These Qlders would be very much like refugees. Wouldn’t they?

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