Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The first federal opinion poll of the new year is from Morgan’s face-to-face surveying last weekend, covering 855 respondents. This finds Labor recovering slightly from the previous poll of December 11-12, which on the headline figure had them trailing for the first time in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, Morgan has been somewhat erratic in choosing which of its two-party measures to use for the headline: “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, or “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election”. Lately they have been using the former, although the latter is universally recognised as more reliable. The score on the former measure has gone from 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition to 50-50, while on the latter it has shifted more modestly from 50-50 to 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor. My policy is to ignore the Morgan headline and favour the previous election measure. However, more significant than the distinction between the two is the obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.

The primary vote figures make clear that the Labor recovery on the headline two-party result is entirely down to a larger share of non-major party voters nominating Labor as the party to which they would direct their preference, which coming from a sample of about 150 is unlikely to be very meaningful. Labor’s primary vote is in fact up by less than the Coalition’s, by half a point to 38.5 per cent, with the Coalition up a full point to 44 per cent. The Greens are down half a point to 13 per cent.

UPDATE (16/1): The first Essential Research for the year finds no change on voting intention whatsoever since December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party, with primary votes of 46 per cent Coalition, 38 per cent Labor and 10 per cent Greens. However, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings: approval up eight points to 51 per cent and disapproval down four to 36 per cent (her best figures since July 19), with an increase in her lead as preferred prime minister from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions relate to respondents’ online shopping activities.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,666 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. [victoria
    Posted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    Finns

    and it was a nice group hug. can’t we just get along better?]

    Ah victoria and then Frank arrived 🙂

  3. David

    Last night I attributed a response to you regarding Sarah Palin. It was a response to Mod Lib. Don’t know if had noticed it.

  4. [DavidPosted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 9:46 pm | Permalinkvictoria
    Posted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 9:25 pm | Permalink
    Finns
    and it was a nice group hug. can’t we just get along better?
    Ah victoria and then Frank arrived
    ]

    Speak for yourself.

  8. Didn’t see it Victoria, left early last night had a seminar to speak to.
    Frank!!!! goodevening old boy nice to have you along.

  10. Gus, i used to blame everything on Diog and now he has deserted us, some might say chicken out.

    I might have to start blaming everything on you.

  12. [btw what has upset Dio so much?]
    vic
    Yesterday he said WTTE that the standard of the blog had slipped over the past few weeks so he was giving it a bit of a rest.

  21. [TONY ABBOTT:

    Look, I am just about to go to the “excavation” centre at the showground then I will be heading up to Toowoomba ]
    DIG THE SHOWGROUND!!!!

  25. Hey, I have been out today and am catching up on PB. What’s this about Abbott and kittens?
    [The evening news just showed him holding the kittens. ]
    Who let that man anywhere near kittens? Did they scratch him?

  28. Cuppa,

    [He should stick to childish three-syllable slogans. Much easier to get his lazy, oversized amygdala around.]

    I think this is just a temporary aberration and the slogans will be back with a vengeance fairly soon.

    Especially when the boats start coming again! 😉

  36. I think this is just a temporary aberration and the slogans will be back with a vengeance fairly soon.

    correct he has no where to go.

    Like finns with his Muslim comments.

  39. victoria,

    [I wonder if these floods will deter boat travel? ]

    No, but the cyclones do though.

    And they tend to make passengers on cruise liners a bit seasick too.;-)

  44. BK

    If I were the Labor party, I would keep a clip of him making that statement as a reference for future commentary. It is appalling form from a leader of a progressive country in the 21st century.

  48. Imagine the media asking him to nominate which flood victims he considers ‘unjust’. Yeah, I know, fantasy, it’ll never happen.

  50. [victoriaPosted Friday, January 14, 2011 at 10:12 pm | PermalinkBK
    If I were the Labor party, I would keep a clip of him making that statement as a reference for future commentary. It is appalling form from a leader of a progressive country in the 21st century.
    ]

    One hopes it wasn’t just filmed by their ABC, as they will refuse their footage to be used for party political purposes.

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