Victorian election live

12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.

11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.

11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.

11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.

11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.

11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.

10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.

10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.

10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.

10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).

10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.

10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.

10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.

10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.

10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.

10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.

9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:

On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.

9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.

9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.

9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.

9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.

9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.

9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.

9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.

9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.

8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.

8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.

8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.

8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.

8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.

8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.

8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.

8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.

8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.

8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.

8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.

8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.

8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.

8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.

8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.

8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.

8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.

8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.

8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.

8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.

8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!

8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.

8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.

8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.

8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …

7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.

7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.

7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.

7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.

7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.

7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.

7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.

7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.

7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.

7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.

7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.

7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.

7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.

7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.

7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.

7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.

7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.

7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.

7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.

7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.

7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.

7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.

7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.

7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.

7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.

7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.

7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.

6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.

6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.

6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.

6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.

6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.

6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.

6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.

6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.

6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.

6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.

6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.

6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.

6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.

6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,694 comments on “Victorian election live”

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  1. yes GG

    Ted Balleau may not even need to say a word to Tony Abbott , unspeak message is Tony had there been a Labor member instead of Brandt elected on 21/8 ( by Libs making pref to Greens last) , you Tony wuld be in Kirribilli today as PM , think tony will always regret that

  2. [William BowePosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 10:06 pm | PermalinkFrom what I’ve seen as an outsider, the Brumby Govt is leaving with some goodwill and plenty of runs on the board. Sadly Howie’s Govt left under similar circumstances instead of being disgraced. And I’m sure that helped the Libs get very close in ‘10.
    Also what I was thinking. That and everything Peter Brent has said. This was a fine election for Labor to lose – and losing it by one seat, and thus keeping as many resources as they have, was the ideal way to do it.

    Could the same have been said about Carpenter in 2008 ?? – personal issues with his leadership style notwithstanding.

  3. George I havent said he was a bad Premier. He wasnt a great one though.
    In fact the reason the swings were not worse than what they were was because Brumby ran a reasonably effective government and was a more palatable Labor leader than those in the past.

    George no doubt had Baillieu lost you’d be crowing till the cows came home cut me a bit of slack. As a Tory I rarely have much to be excited about 🙂

  4. Gusface okay I will stop bashing the Greens but until they are successful in winning lower house seats they should not claim to have mainstream support.

  5. [mexicanbeemerPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 10:09 pm | PermalinkGusface okay I will stop bashing the Greens but until they are successful in winning lower house seats they should not claim to have mainstream support.

    Agreed and the WA FGreens had that chance, but blew it when their sole lower house member gave in to her carnal desires.

  6. [George no doubt had Baillieu lost you’d be crowing till the cows came home cut me a bit of slack. As a Tory I rarely have much to be excited about]

    Crow as much as you like Glen, I have ZERO problem with Liberal supporters enjoying their win.

    What I can’t stand is historical inaccuracies, blatant lies, misrepresentations, talking through one’s ar*e and putting forward rubbish statements as “fact” when you have nothing to back them with. All things you do in almost every post here.

  7. 1530

    The problem in preventing a government majority in the upper house when the right win the election at the moment is that because of the Coalition there is no right wing minor party to counter balance. The ALP has disliked the overlapping mandates of upper houses since its inception and it has hurt them.

    If only the Cain Government had been able to get Legislative Council reform through in the short time after the 1985 election it controlled the Council.

  8. [Glen,

    “As a Tory I rarely have much to be excited about”

    At least you can now hug your Teddy.]

    He finally came out of the closet GG 😉

  9. Gus

    you missed th declaration , and th tapistry , its happened

    (BTW Mex Beemer , your comments were well considered , dont let anyone put you off

  10. Ron

    I would hate that to think you would not show restraint

    the choice is yours my friend

    tho may i counsel. that the enemy of thine enemy is thine friend

    cast your lot!

  11. No Green bashing? So when can we expect the Greens to start taking seats off the Libs rather than Labor? Seeming as all the Greens on here tell me they are the common enemy and all.

  12. Oh, come on, Ron! Robert Ray and Richo are a pair of old factional warlords, way past their use-by date, not contemporary luminaries. Ray probably hated the left in the Party itself as much as he does the Greens!

    As for Richo, it became bleedingly obvious that he was more interested in making money for himself than he was in the Labor Party a decade or more ago when he decided to go and work for Packer. He’s a regular commentator for News Ltd these days, and, of course, set the standard for getting involved in murky deals and other scandals for which the NSW Right is so regularly condemned these days.

    He disagrees strongly with you about “Gay marriage” by the way, and regularly publicly admonishes Julia Gillard for not “standing up” on the matter and for other mistakes. He’s such a good “friend” of Labor that Tony Abbott uses his words to goad Gillard in Parliament! He’s the guy who gave Abbott the “no agenda and no plan” quotation. He’s the bloke who claimed that two ministers had threatened to resign from her cabinet unless she gave them the jobs they wanted.

    No wonder you have trouble telling the wood from the trees if Graham Richardson is till one of your heroes!

  13. Labor is tired of fighting on 2 fronts , and losing votes to both front with each front causing losses directly to th other front Thats why both fronts primarys is up , and labors 2PP is down to 50/50 Appeasement flags wont do , Greens is Labor’s hansonites , Liberals is Labors idealogical foe

    (So Rod Hagen your Greens BS , tho ‘respectable’ well write words , of spin is for th gullable here )

  14. On reflection, I think that (although I’d have liked Labor to do what the conservatives have done in the past, and govern for twenty years straight!) this was a good election to lose.

    Better to go out still respected and with a good chance of rebuilding quickly than outstay your welcome like Labor in NSW.

    If handled wisely, should be a short term on the Oppo benches.

    Just as long as we don’t get cattle back in the High Plains in the meantime! I’ve already fought that battle…(trusting that Burke will be able to use his veto to prevent that one…)


    er, Labor reformed the Upper House under Bracks, among other things getting rid of the overlapping mandate, so I’m not sure why you’re bringing Cain into it.

  15. Now it will be interesting how the next VEC retribution is carryied out. are we certain of when it will take place and I suspect it is possible that Ted may fine himself needing a swing to stay in office.

    This could also have been true had Brumby remained Premier.

  16. z

    [Better to go out still respected and with a good chance of rebuilding quickly than outstay your welcome like Labor in NSW.]

    Or Rann or Bligh.

  17. Gus you need to seen on ground gras roots reality , and forget rod Hagen’s greens BS , get to face th reel world of Labor candidates in Brunswick , Northvcote , Melbourne , Footscray , and Richmond…th ONLY enemy was th Greens with there smearing and lying anti Labor grass roots campiagns ((because th Liberals were not th enemy there at all , and indeed across Melb Greens attacked Labor , just like here) labor’s

    (Fed poll numbers against an incompetent shallow Abbott oposition in part is th result of percieved Greens Agenda contolling Labor , and Balleau in part won similar effect)

  18. Ron

    amate is lab candidate for lab seat

    his hearfelt opine is that the wrangling and bitching is aiding the fibs

    who am I to argue with 20+ yrs of experience at the coalface?

  19. Zoomster
    Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    “On reflection, I think that (although I’d have liked Labor to do what the conservatives have done in the past, and govern for twenty years straight!) this was a good election to lose.

    Better to go out still respected and with a good chance of rebuilding quickly than outstay your welcome like Labor in NSW.”

    You’re assuming Balleau’s narative’ on Labor from “Miki to waste” said on Election nite speech does not become accepted wisdom of public , because next Liberal Partys aelection attack adds will be on that

  20. Gus

    you not speak to those 5 candidates who aCTUALY faced it , they know
    plus thems , I not only got polls , but phsological wizards Adam and GG as references , plus vip very clear messages from Lindsay Tanner down that Greens is Labor’s One Nation , and lindsay is a smart cookie as is other strategists Thats 4 sound basis’s of th tapistry , and not rapped in emotion

    (Only hung HoR distraction is current block , but Vic results a la Balleau’s stand is clearer path that BOP was not enuf for them and deeling with Libs i necessary will do them)

  21. ps

    RON and GG

    except for some EXCEPTIONAL CO-OP between greenies and true believers



    suck on that


  22. [No Green bashing? So when can we expect the Greens to start taking seats off the Libs rather than Labor? Seeming as all the Greens on here tell me they are the common enemy and all.]

    When the Libs have some seats in their clutches that are full of young people with a high level of education and environmental interests, madcyril.

    The reason why the Greens do well in such seats is that such people feel disenfranchised by the movement of Labor to target the areas of “middle Australian suburbia” that define much of the ALP’s parliamentary profile, and that are most certainly necessary to win for the ALP to remain a major party. The inner city seats are not what they used to be. They are no longer working class heartland. A somewhat different set of policies appeals to the people of these areas from those of the suburbs that form the primary battleground between Labor and the Libs.

    Labor has been just able to stave off this problem so far by putting in some high quality, generally left leaning, candidates into these seats, but it is getting harder and harder all the time because it simply isn’t possible to adopt a credible policy framework that works ‘across the board”. If Labor wants to regain the support of the inner urban seats as they are constituted these days then it will need to move to the left on a variety of social issues, but if it does this then it feels it will lose out to the Libs elsewhere. The simple reality is that it can’t really have it both ways.

    Historically the nearest equivalent in Australian politics is the situation that the conservative parties found themselves in back in the early and mid 20th century – trying to balance the demands of urban electorates with those of the bush. The resolution of this, of course, involved the establishment of a coalition approach involving the Country Party and the various incarnations of what became the Liberal party, culminating in the very long period of conservative government during the Menzies era. The different interests of disparate groups could actually be far more effectively accommodated through a coalition approach than they could within the bounds of one party alone and Labor, unfortunately, spent a long time occupying the opposition benches as a result.

    My own view is that Labor and the Greens need to seriously consider developing an approach that draws on something of the same principles. Of course there are always tensions and compromises in such arrangements, but they can actually lead to a far greater mobilisation of votes , and potentially far greater long term stability of rule, than the present situation. Between them, Labor and The Greens easily out score the longstanding coalition of parties of the right when it comes to the primary vote. Between them, accordingly, they have the potential to form governments of remarkable durability, with the capacity to represent a remarkably broad cross section of the Australian community. They can also continue to benefit (as they do at present) from much the same advantages of preference flows that kept the conservative coalition in power for such a long time in earlier days (and which, in fact, led to the introduction of preferential voting itself in the early twentieth century).

    I think both Labor and The Greens need to think strategically and imaginatively about the possibilities that are available to them here, rather than beating each other up. Seems to me to have far more potential for keeping the conservative forces at bay, and that, for me at least, is far more important than whether one party of the left or the other holds this seat or that. As I regularly try to point out to Ron, who continually accuses me of being a perfidious “Green”, I don’t really care which party wins this seat or that as long as it isn’t the conservatives.

  23. I still don’t understand how Rann won – pretty easily in the end – while Brumby has lost.

    Could it be that people pissed off with Chantelois grudgingly voted Labor, thus saving them?

  24. In a seat like Brunswick the clear threat to the ALP comes from the Greens therefore it is only natural that the ALP is going to take that on and actually it was a good hard fought campaign run by Jane Garrett and really the Greens need to stop expecting the AKLP to just roll over and let then take their traitional seats.

    Next the Greens will be asking Ted to be polite and let them win Hawthorn or Kew or Prahran and I ma sure the Liberals will react just the same as the ALP did. This is called grown up politics, it is too hot for you get out of the kitchen

  25. Rod Prahran comes to mind also Hawthorn has a large student population and their are many young people both single and with families across Melbourne

  26. [Glen
    Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    I am cautiously optimistic that a small l Liberal government should last some time in Victoria.]

    Hopefully it’s the beginning of the end of the conservatives.

  27. Gus

    Labor aint going to get blackmailed into further appeasement with Greens attacking Labor and its Seats and a suicide 33% approx primary vote , and a 50/50 2 PP They crossed th Labor seats rubicon , deel with it because Labor will

  28. Rod what part of the ALP was founded to look after the interest of the working class men and women many of whom work in industries that the Greens are opposed too.

    Last night the traditional ALP area of Morwell gave the sitting Nat MP a massive TPP majority well above 10%

  29. Ron

    well i will tell ——————— I amsure he can look to the victorian efforts with confidence

    actually he will just go hammer and tongs against the fibs

    as any TRUE labor person would


  30. Rod Hagen
    Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    “and that, for me at least, is far more important than whether one party of the left or the other (Labor or Greens) holds this seat or that. ”

    Labor party polisys and principals is not those of th wacky Greens , Differense is a canyon , you simply talk drivel and that some here buy it is amazin but i know alot do not

  31. A few years ago I thought Australian politics was possibly moving toward a situation where politics was defined on a cultural level – conservative vs liberal. Though this is happening, it all appears to be happening on the left between the ALP and the Greens on both a cultural and economic level, and it is being played largely in the inner cities. What also seems to be happening is that the Liberal Party vote is holding up remarkably well in areas that are culturally liberal such as the upmarket suburbs south of the river. A while back, I thought that the Libs would have a hard time ever winning Prahran as there was a drift away the Libs to the Greens and the ALP – yesterday the Libs smashed both. Last week, I thought the Greens would push the ALP into 3rd in a lot of safe Liberal seats – not once did it happen. The competitive Libs vs Greens contest is a long way off.

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