Victorian election live

12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.

11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.

11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.

11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.

11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.

11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.

10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.

10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.

10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.

10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).

10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.

10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.

10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.

10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.

10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.

10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.

9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:

On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.

9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.

9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.

9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.

9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.

9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.

9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.

9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.

9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.

8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.

8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.

8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.

8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.

8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.

8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.

8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.

8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.

8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.

8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.

8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.

8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.

8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.

8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.

8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.

8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.

8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.

8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.

8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.

8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.

8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!

8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.

8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.

8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.

8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …

7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.

7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.

7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.

7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.

7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.

7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.

7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.

7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.

7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.

7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.

7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.

7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.

7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.

7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.

7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.

7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.

7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.

7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.

7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.

7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.

7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.

7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.

7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.

7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.

7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.

7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.

7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.

6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.

6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.

6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.

6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.

6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.

6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.

6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.

6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.

6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.

6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.

6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.

6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.

6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.

6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,694 comments on “Victorian election live”

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  1. you lot who support the alp still holding out hope you will win bentleigh. it is now unlikely. yes full weight was 94% last time but a more realistic one this time is around about the 90% mark which means the absent votes need to go against the trend of the rest of the votes in the electorate

    if postal trend from bentleigh is similar in eltham and macedon which as a huge number of postals both can be one by the libs

    ballarat east and essendon on sheer size of alp margin and alp history in electorates in reality mean the margin will be more favourable to labor after the postals

  2. Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 1:32 am | Permalink

    ‘ Bentleigh , youse lead by 424 , but only 83% of count ‘

    “Final weight last time was 94%. Could be 3900 valid votes to go. ”

    yes Kevin , unfortunate not more uncounted votes to incr Labor’s odds
    Labor needs to win 3 close ones it leads in per my #1636 (as I feel it will win th othr 3 Albert Pk , Ballarat East & Narre Nth it has leads of over 1000 in , and then Bentleigh itself which seems unlikely to be able to win to to end with a tie

    but one never knows , lady lucks until final no’s is counted so feel John Brumby is quite reasonable in this position not to concede until full count is done

  3. “The Australian understands that Mr Baillieu has already sounded out former federal MP Petro Georgiou about becoming his chief of staff, should the Coalition form government.”

  4. From the above article:

    [They say key issues such as the cost of living, lack of public transport and the “it’s time” factor, especially among older men, were the reasons behind the unexpected,huge swing in the outer-eastern and southeastern suburbs.
    “We sacrificed the heartland for a couple of wankers in the inner city,” said one frustrated Labor insider.
    “I think we forget the suburbs. We spent too much time navel-gazing about the Greens and too much time in the regions.”
    One Labor MP believed the party’s “indulgence with the Greens had cost the tradespeople”.
    “There was not one tradie who asked for a how-to-vote card yesterday,” the MP said. “Out of all the calls I have made in my electorate in the last two years, not one person has asked me about climate change.”

  5. Gus , all states matter to form a Fed Labor govt so your coment only NSW counts is naeve , and BTW you aint understood paradim game explained anyway that Labor is being attcked on 2 fronts and now ill be forsed to fight on both fronts because of what you deny , polls effect , each front delivers votes to th othr front and vice versa

    As for Vic result , reality is Ballaeu public put Greens last and highlited that fact by word of th Labor/Greens allianse , it was decsive move of campaign He won 11 seats in part cause of that (plus other factors prev mentioned) so your assess is quiet foolish to imply th reverse

  6. [1661 GusfacePosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 2:11 am | Permalinkfrank
    who do you want the tofu’s preferncing
    WA and Vic really worked out well

    The Tofus preference the easiest pathway to a seat πŸ™‚

  7. [GusfacePosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 2:17 am | Permalinkfrank
    ye of little faith

    and i thought you were a true believer


    A True Believer knows when to cut their losses – NSW is the perfect example.

  8. Gus

    as Frank said you’d foolishly bought th Greens drivel hook line and sinker , and sound like a zealot like Green rod hagen , which is a worry


    Mr Shorten also described

    “Mr Baillieu’s decision to place the Greens last powerful and defining.

    “I think HE got a lift because of his decision NOT to preference the Greens,” Mr Shorten said. “He gave himself political definition.

    They are like a dinner party conversation gone viral.” !!!!!

    He said that while the obsession with the Greens needed to be contained, ignoring them altogether was equally flawed. ”

    pity you dont follow Billys lead , instead of Greens spin

  9. [GusfacePosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 2:23 am | Permalinkfrank
    I will copy that quote
    As a true beliver i dont ever give up– but glad to see who the fairweathers are

    I call it the saving the furniture policy – you want to alienate the traditonal base by pandering to wanky elites who whinge whethey get a splinter.

    How do you think Howard lasted 11 years – by slowly preaching to the traditional ALP voter in McMansion land.

    Only Workchoices woke them up from their slumber – but tyhey were well prepared to forgive and forget and elect Abbott.

    Cashed up bogans vote Lib FFS – 11 yrs ago they’d rather slash their wrists than vote for Howard.

    I think you will find I am correct.

  10. Gus

    you fist stupidly Q whether an ALP member is involved in campaigns , and this coming from you who aint even a Member You then Q if Frank is a true beleiver , tho now doubt you even know what that means You is now bullshiting what Billy Shorten even said , read what Billy Shorten said about th Greens , instead of making it up

    I think HE got a lift because of his decision NOT to preference the Greens,” Mr Shorten said. β€œHe gave himself political definition.”

    “They are like a dinner party conversation gone viral.” !!!!!
    He said that while the obsession with the Greens needed to be contained, ignoring them altogether was equally flawed. ”

    any politcal operative can read what he a ALP Fed Minister restricted tho he obvously is , is clearly saying

  11. [GusfacePosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 2:41 am | Permalinkfrank ron
    glad we understand where we stand
    i hope you enjoy the fibs


    You’d get the same result whoever the ALP Preferenced.

    Peter VO sums up the Greens perfectly.

  12. [GusfacePosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 2:50 am | PermalinkFrank
    I really wonder how Vic and WA would have run without the Labs sniping at the greens

    The ALP would’ve retained Fremantle in the By-Election for a start πŸ™‚

    Admit it – your obsession with the Greens defies the fact that the Greens are slowly trying to screw the ALP – from within – and with fools like you falling for it they are succeeding.

    When you get Brown saying stuff like this about the PPL – “Tony Abbott has out-greened the Greens” then you REALLY have to wonder who your true friends are.

  13. 1677

    well in vic labor could have put more resources into the se and east of melbourne and sandbagged the seats and hung on to power

    but in turn green vote would have been higher, saying that the opportunity cost of the result says that labor should have out more effort into the marginals v libs than putting effort into the inner seats which in reality even if lost to greens would not have cost labor govt

    the fact labor campaigned so hard in the inner seats of alp v grn contests lost labor seats in eastern and se melbourne and the election.

  14. Gus

    you fist stupidly Q whether an ALP member is involved in campaigns , and this coming from you who aint even a Member You then Q if Frank is a true beleiver , tho now doubt you even know what that means You is now bullshiting what Billy Shorten even said , read what Billy Shorten said about th Greens , instead of making it up

    you now talk like a Green , using th Green argumnet to deflect Labor from attacking Greens whilst as Frank corectly says that Greens both savage labor publicly & try to steel Labor not Lib seats

    Billy also said fight th Greens , if you can read what a Fed Labor Minister tho restictd that said , with with Liberals th main enemy , just like Lindsay Tanner said , and Robert Ray , and Graham richo , and Vic ALP Tresuer Joihn Lenders and host of Labor peoples who know more than you’ve amaturishly shown tonite about politcs

  15. aaronkirk , your Greens Party attacked (safe) Labor not Liberal Seats , so you lot is to blame for Labor wasting its resouses fighting your Greens Party so youse Greens helped th Liberals , well done , and by your sleezy pref deels also helped th Liberals
    and th ONLY Party that was fighting th Liberals was th Austalian Labor Party , that shame belongs to th Greens for ever

  16. [RonPosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 3:19 am | Permalinkaaronkirk , your Greens Party attacked (safe) Labor not Liberal Seats , so you lot is to blame for Labor wasting its resouses fighting your Greens Party so youse Greens helped th Liberals , well done , and by your sleezy pref deels also helped th Liberals
    and th ONLY Party that was fighting th Liberals was th Austalian Labor Party , that shame belongs to th Greens for ever

    aaron is a Lib supporter – his uncle is Athol Guy from The Seekers who was a Victorianmember of Parliament for the libs back in the 70’s -but thrust of your comments is correct.

  17. and didnt we libs help you laborites by holding the 4 seats in inner melbourne, i was very happy not to prefernce the greens and disagree with the federal decision which gave bandt melbourne.

  18. frank

    im holding out hope we can win macedon (formerly gisborne) to return it back to the fold unlikely though.

    if we can get eltham it makes it 46-42

  19. aaronkirk , my appologies , your srguement is so green in stark contrast to what your own hero John Howard beleives that Greens is miles worse than Labor , and your Lib Senator Helen Kroger Labor DID pref Liberals ove One Nation in q’ld and delivered Liberal rather than One Nation seats eg Blair

    your coments is also very diff from your fellow Lib here Dovik #1493 where he blogged a quite detailed & sensibel post Suggest you hav a gander aaronkirk

  20. and the other fact going against labor about the inner city campaigning is that if the greenies won the seats and it became a hung parliament, the greens would support labor.

    that very fact should make it clear to the labor campaign team that they should have put resources in areas that could cost them the election.

    if brumby kept saying that the election would be tight and be knife edge than his campaign team should listen and campaign in areas where the ALP vote was still inflated due to the 2002 landslide result.

    get the facts right, the heavy campaigning from the alp in the labor v greens contests inner city contests annoyed the middle ground voters in the eastern suburbs and contributed greatly to the downfall of the victorian ALP government

  21. it is a sensible post there 1493

    in a round about and quite different way i have the same view, even though it might not come across that way

  22. aaronkirk , yea , Doviks #1493 was a good post
    “the middle ground voters in the eastern suburbs” did not know what Labor was doing in campaigns in inner suburbs ! , but they damn well DID know from Baileau directly and repeat on TV that there was a Labor/Greens allianse” !!

    thats what pssed off middle ground votes ie th perseption Labor was only interested in inner city elite Agenda items and not what reel life australian working family issues
    Whereas Bailluea’s decision made it VERYclear he was only intersted in there concerns (by putting Greens last) and so got swags of there votes , winning numerous seats

    Labor’s issue is fighting on 2 fronts , it will , but ts a politcal managemnt issue

  23. ron

    that is correct and unless labor can find a way to manage it, the issue will continue to be a problematic one in the future. labor need to sort it out before the NSW election, not that it wont make a difference, but in Labor v Green electorates an example being Balmain, the result will on current newspoll figures end up being a green v lib battle with labor 3rd.

    this issue is a huge problem for labor

  24. yes aaronkirk , and todate Julia has not addressed it proper , and in fact worser went into a public signin of a peoce of paper that had little in it , then been caught by afganistan , gay marriage , eufenasia , Greens senator SHY claiming credir (falseley) for A- S childrens change etc loking like Labor is hostage to a Greens agender …that Tony Abbott repeats and is scoring home runs on , and poll results

    tho more Senior labor figures now realize (& said public & private) that as Greens will continue popularism attacks that been doing & there on th ground attacks per seat , a 2 front stetegy is needed Agree entirely with you & Dovik , its a huge Labor politcal problem managing (as Greens is now Labor’s ‘One Nation’)

  25. (BTW , many of th actual polisy issues themselves is not necessaryilly a Q of there merit or not , but that those 2nd level polisy issues has been seen to be forsed on Labor by th Greens Party to treat them as priority issues , when most aussies do not think they is priority anyway , and that Labor (Brumby and Julia) should instaed be treating THERE middle australien working peoples concerns th proritiy to spend time on and fix

  26. Arronkirk,
    Re 1687
    The truth is the polls ALWAYS say the election will be close. Vic Labor never believed it though.
    The leader does not want to sound arrogant and the leader behind does not want to sound like a loser.
    The leader way in front will always claim surprise at a large victory
    The leader who is trailing probably won’t survive a big loss anyway so has nothing to lose.

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