Galaxy: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland

Today’s Courier-Mail brings a gruesome poll result for Anna Bligh, showing her 12-year-old administration giving the 15-year-old one south of the border a run for its money in the unpopularity stakes. The Galaxy survey of 800 respondents has Labor’s vote at just 28 per cent against 48 per cent for the Liberal National Party, with 4 per cent marching from the former to the latter since the last such poll five months ago. The Greens are steady on 16 per cent. Anna Bligh has recorded a lethal disapproval rating of 70 per cent with only 25 per cent approval, and now trails John-Paul Langbroek as preferred premier 49 per cent to 35 per cent. Langbroek has moved to a positive net approval rating with 41 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval. The LNP’s two-party lead is 60-40, which if anything would be flattering for Labor in light of the state’s optional preferential voting system. The margin of error on the poll is around 3.5 per cent. Hat tip, as always, to GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

43 comments on “Galaxy: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. I think Bligh totally misread the disdain that the Union Movement held her privatisation program in. She and her caucus certainly never learnt anything from Wayne Goss’s flirtation with it.

    The main thing that she didn’t take into consideration was that it was not only current Union Members that didn’t want to have a bar of it, but all those who had “previously” been members of a Union.

    They are all traditional Labor voters & supporters. The privatisation was never going to win votes from the traditional conservative voting sector and by going against the wishes of the traditional Labor base,there was only one way to go. DOWN!

    Bligh is the one that will wear the odium for this and the Qld voters will make sure that she pays dearly for her arrogance. The only problem with that is that in doing so, they will take down a lot of good solid Labor Members with her.

  2. Well, David Phagan is delivering the result Rupert wants.
    This is just surreal – Bligh is doing a great job, Fraser is doing a great job, the pineapple party opposition are an absolute rabble…but with a single Murdoch newspaper and the Qld ABC just a Murdoch subsidiary, delivering beat-up after beat-up and lie after lie after lie, this is what comes to pass.

  3. Trubbell at Mill,

    Yeah it’s quite unreal. The Qld Government is actually quite a good government and the difference between it and an appalling Opposition couldn’t be starker.

    Yet they are in major trouble in the polls and in my opinion it is solely because Anna Bligh thought she could stare down the Unions, give them the finger and after bedding down the privatisations, everyone would once again become best buddies and she could cruise to an easy victory at the next election.

    It’s not going to happen like that and just shows that nothing was learned from when Wayne Goss gave the Unions the finger. Those who don’t learn from history, are destined to repeat it.

  4. For anyone in Townsville who wishes to know who to vote for at the next state election, simply take a drive down to the Townsville General Hospital.

    No need to stop, just drive through to the round-a-bout, turn around and then head to the polling booth. You won’t be a Labor voter for the next 10 years.

  5. [Yet they are in major trouble in the polls and in my opinion it is solely because Anna Bligh thought she could stare down the Unions, give them the finger and after bedding down the privatisations, everyone would once again become best buddies and she could cruise to an easy victory at the next election.]

    Has nothing to do with the unions. No one cares about unions except the small minority who are in unions.

    Blight lost the election the minute she jacked up rego costs while simulatenously scrapping the fuel subsidy directly after the last election. Now she must pay.

  6. I have said this many times

    Qld = NSW -2 years the best thing for the ALP was to lose the last election, they were out of ideas already, that would have prevented a messacre and being in opposition for a long time

    Maybe KKK can led them to the next election as well

  7. Trubbell at Mill @ 2

    Well, David Phagan is delivering the result Rupert wants.
    This is just surreal – Bligh is doing a great job, Fraser is doing a great job, the pineapple party opposition are an absolute rabble…but with a single Murdoch newspaper and the Qld ABC just a Murdoch subsidiary, delivering beat-up after beat-up and lie after lie after lie, this is what comes to pass.

    This is just delusional stuff.

    I am not a Queenslander but I was wondering just what was going on up there and did some reading and not the MSM either. I also saw Andrew Fraser on TV being interviewed and the guy just oozed arrogance, basically giving the finger to the electorate.

    Here is a good take from John Quiggin, hardly a Murdoch MSM hack Murdoch backs Bligh

  8. A good Victorian government will be turfed out today for no better reason than that it’s been there eleven years and the punters want change.

    The Queensland, NSW and SA governments suffer from the same syndrome. The Labor Party in these three states would have benefited from a narrow loss last time.

    When SA Labor is tossed out in three and a half years, it will be able to point to a brand new Royal Adelaide Hospital, an electrified rail system from Seaford in the south to Gawler in the north, a new-look Adelaide Oval and Torrens riverbank development, a desalination plant to safeguard Adelaide’s water supply and the greatest amount of road infrastructure in the state’s history.

    These achievements, ironically, will count for nought. Trivia rules OK.

  9. Troothy,

    [Has nothing to do with the unions. No one cares about unions except the small minority who are in unions.]

    You miss the point. They vote. Their partners & family vote. If “THEY” don’t vote Labor, then Labor doesn’t get to sit on the Treasury benches.

    You lot don’t count. You don’t vote for them anyway!

  10. Diogenes,

    [We are about six months behind you. Rann and Foley privatizing, taking away allowances and giving the finger to the unions.]

    Must have been something in that water that came down your way via the Darling. 😉

    Apparently craziness knows no boundaries. This privatisation business amazes me. Are any of those services any better “after” privatisation?
    Do they cost less for the consumer “after” privatisation?
    Are they run better “after” privatisation?
    Are taxpayers better off “after” privatisation?

    You would be hard put to find even “one” example of a “yes” to those questions. Why then, do these stupid politicians of both persuasions think that the next time they privatise something that it will turn out differently than the previous times?

  11. [You miss the point. They vote. Their partners & family vote. If “THEY” don’t vote Labor, then Labor doesn’t get to sit on the Treasury benches.]

    Yep and if you chase the polls back to the point where Blight became unelectable was exactly around the time directly after the last election when she jacked up rego’s 30% and scrapped the 9 cent fuel subsidy.

    To pretend that the Unions campaign which happened 12 months or so later was the cause when the polls show clearly that wasn’t the case is ridiculous.

    Guess what? People don’t like huge rego increases! And guess what they hate even more here in Queensland? The beloved 9 cent fuel subsidy which was the trophy of QLD drivers being snatched away from us.

    If your in a union you probably cared about the privatisation(small minority of what, 10%?).

    If you drive a car however you would be absolutely pissed off about the rego increases and fuel increases(that’d be 90%+ of Queenslanders who can vote).

    Make no mistake, Bligh was gone the minute she performed this bastard act(and it was a bastard act because she did so immediately following the last election, with NO announcement of the changes pre-election).

  12. Toorak Toff

    btw, you are a good horse

    Meanwhile in NSW, the ALP can point to the following achievements for their 15 years in office …..

    Well they did propose the North West rail line 14 times

  13. TT

    also the RAH is a PPP, which means the govenment pays nothing today, but future generation (users) pays a premium for the operation of the hospital for the next 30 years.

  14. [The Oposition in Queensland IS still a RABBLE, to elect them just for the sake of change is just plain STUPID!.]

    We aren’t electing them for the sake of change, we are electing them to get rid of Labor.

    You must understand the thinking of Queenslanders, we are a vengeful lot. Not too sure what the opposition leaders name is, but Anna’s gotta go.

  15. Truthy is quite right, Anna Bligh’s problem was when she pulled the bastard act (his words not mine) just after an election and without announcement during the elction campaign. And if I recall, it was an early election so it was a bit of a double bastard.

  16. [We aren’t electing them for the sake of change, we are electing them to get rid of Labor.]

    To put a DO Nothing conservative rabble in government, have you no brains?.

  17. [To pretend that the Unions campaign which happened 12 months or so later was the cause when the polls show clearly that wasn’t the case is ridiculous.]

    Mmmm! Who did that I wonder? It certainly wasn’t me. None of the 40% LNP supporters (including your good self) voted for Bligh last time and won’t again this time, so won’t make a scrap of difference to the poll result.

    “But” a shift of 10% of Union Members (traditional Labor voters) voting LNP or Greens or Independent this time “will” make a substantial difference to the result.

    You can make all the noise you like but can’t change the fact that it is traditional “Labor” voters that have caused the drop in the polls for Bligh. You lot weren’t in the equation before and you aren’t now!

  18. [You must understand the thinking of Queenslanders, we are a vengeful lot. ]

    You might be but don’t speak for the rest of us. We’re not “all” RW nut cases! 😉

  19. Well at 60-40 to the LNP that will be too tempting for Springborg to have his fourth go at becoming premier of Qld, so he will no doubt pull his usual trick and roll Langbroek a bit further down the track if the polls stay like that.

    He just can’t help himself, he will be so excited.

  20. [For anyone in Townsville who wishes to know who to vote for at the next state election, simply take a drive down to the Townsville General Hospital.

    No need to stop, just drive through to the round-a-bout, turn around and then head to the polling booth. You won’t be a Labor voter for the next 10 years.]

    That’s a fair point Truthy because what sticks out when you do that is the new 100 bed block being built by the State and Federal Labor Governments in its final stages of completion so it certainly won’t cahnge any Labor voters intentions, that’s for sure.

    But you just keep making shit up as per normal.

  21. vera,

    [Hi Scorps 🙂

    LNP having a reshuffle ]

    Yeah, just making a few minor adjustments setting them up to take over seamlessly in Government! 😉

    Yeah right! They are close to the most incompetent Opposition I have “ever” seen. Sorry! They “are” the most incompetent Opposition I have ever seen. 😉

  22. Gaffhook,

    [Well at 60-40 to the LNP that will be too tempting for Springborg to have his fourth go at becoming premier of Qld, so he will no doubt pull his usual trick and roll Langbroek a bit further down the track if the polls stay like that.

    He just can’t help himself, he will be so excited. ]

    They could always draw straws again like they did a while back to decide the leader! 😉

  23. [“But” a shift of 10% of Union Members (traditional Labor voters) voting LNP or Greens or Independent this time “will” make a substantial difference to the result.

    You can make all the noise you like but can’t change the fact that it is traditional “Labor” voters that have caused the drop in the polls for Bligh. You lot weren’t in the equation before and you aren’t now!]

    Utter crap.

    As I have said the polls went sour for Labor long before the Unions campaign. This is just the Unions trying to rain in on the parade. Bligh was gone long long before this.

    And BTW, you don’t need to be a LNP voter to be annoyed about a 30% increase in rego’s and 9 cent fuel subsidy double whammy right after an election. You just need to be a driver. Are Labor voters drivers?

  24. [That’s a fair point Truthy because what sticks out when you do that is the new 100 bed block being built by the State and Federal Labor Governments in its final stages of completion so it certainly won’t cahnge any Labor voters intentions, that’s for sure.]

    Fantastic, 100 new beds!

    Now where do people of Townsville park to take advantage of this fabulously designed QLD Labor built hospital?

    I’ll tell you:

    * On the footpaths
    * On the round-about itself
    * On the nature strip
    * Running about 200m down the lengths of the access roads
    * In the gardens
    * Double Parked
    * Anywhere where a car will fit

    I’ll be happy to go down there on Monday and take a few piccies for the southerners in here to gawk at in disbelief. This is meant to be one of the newest, QLD Labor designed masterpieces and yet for years now(and simply getting worse) the parking availability is an absolute joke.

    Now Townsville isn’t the worlds most densely populated cities, so actually building parking facilities isn’t really that difficult. Most shopping centres around here have multistory car parking, but apparantly this was too difficult a task for the QLD Government to design.

    So yes, go to Townsville General to one of the new 100 beds(why wasn’t this built 5 years ago when the new hospital was opened??), but for christ sakes make sure you take a taxi!

  25. [Utter crap.

    As I have said the polls went sour for Labor long before the Unions campaign. This is just the Unions trying to rain in on the parade. Bligh was gone long long before this.

    And BTW, you don’t need to be a LNP voter to be annoyed about a 30% increase in rego’s and 9 cent fuel subsidy double whammy right after an election. You just need to be a driver. Are Labor voters drivers?]

    You’re so blinded by feigned anger and so driven by partisan blindness, that your reading and comprehension skills have totally deserted you!

  26. If you embark upon a major privatization program, junk a petrol rebate and push up other charges 6 weeks after winning an election campaign during which all of these things were never mentioned or flagged, you won the election campaign on a major lie. It is unfortunately expect ion if you are the opposition and you use the standard line oh its a lot worse than we were led to believe, but not if you are the government for ten years. Blight won the election lying to the voters. Her government is incompetent. Most people in other states won’t have heard of the Health payroll debacle. But the health deprtment installed new payroll software without testing properly before going live 6 months later staff are still not being paid correctly and it will take 2 more years and 200 million more to fix. Any company board would have sacked everyone concerned. But this government doesn’t understand the term responsibility. The unions of course have rolled over and shut up. My major regret with this polling is that unfortunately I won’t get the pleasure of kicking out a dishonest incompetent premier. The alp will use the the nsw right playbook and install a probably female patsy (if they can find one )to blunt the damage. Nice one Anna. Your incompetence leads to labor being in the wilderness for at least a decade
    and as for anyone on this blog actually defending Qld or for that matter NSW state labor we know that there will always be the diehards who can’t acknowledge the truth

  27. [Blight won the election lying to the voters. Her government is incompetent.]

    I think another factor that sounded the death knell for her government was her appearance on Masterchef Celebrity.

    I think the first thing that popped into everyones minds when they saw that was: “Isn’t she meant to be running the bloody state??!”

    It would be the equivalent of Julia Gillard doing a 3 month appearance of Dancing with the Stars.

  28. [but apparantly this was too difficult a task for the QLD Government to design.]

    Remember this hospital was built when your favourite rodent and abbort government was in power and they ripped over a billion dollars out of the health system.
    Now the catch up is on and unfortunately that will take time.

    It will be far better for patients to be in the new beds than sleeping in a new car park so common sense tells you to get the beds done first.

    I don’t have a problem getting a park there, you must be rocking up in a semi trailer if you can’t get one.

    Stop making shit up.

  29. [the parking availability is an absolute joke.]

    I will admit that there would be a few parks short at the mental health area where you go for your check ups, that was built later, but have patience son that will be fixed when the Federal government can get some more funds in to the system.

  30. [No but sure has some dense citizens!]

    That’s over in the Garbutt area where Truthy dwells.

    I bet he’ll be spitting chips when they finnish the new asylum seeker center Cleveland Youth Detention Center extensions.

    They should have no trouble housing three thousand there when finished.

  31. [I don’t have a problem getting a park there, you must be rocking up in a semi trailer if you can’t get one.]

    Ohhh the photos are coming mate… the photos are coming.

    Queensland Labors shame will be on here for all to see.

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