Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria; Newspoll: 51.1-48.9

GhostWhoVotes reports an unpleasant surprise for Victorian Labor in the final Nielsen poll of the campaign, which has the Coalition seizing a 52-48 two-party lead. More to follow.

UPDATE: And now Newspoll confirms the picture of a late swing of considerable force, putting the Coalition in front 51.1-48.9. Labor’s primary vote is at just 33 per cent, with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1451, boosted from the normally 1000-ish as usual for a final pre-election poll. John Brumby is down four on approval to 38 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent, while Ted Baillieu is up four to 44 per cent and down two to 44 per cent. Brumby nonetheless leads as preferred premier 48 per cent to 38 per cent, and Labor is expected to win by 55 per cent against 26 per cent for the Coalition. Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

The Age reports the primary votes from Nielsen are Labor 34 per cent, Coalition 45 per cent and Greens 14 per cent – a very similar set of figures to Newspoll, suggesting the 52 per cent Liberal two-party result has benefited from rounding. Nielsen has better personal ratings for both leaders: Brumby is on 46 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval, with Baillieu on 48 per cent and 42 per cent. Brumby’s lead as preferred premier is narrower, at 49-44.

UPDATE 3: The Newspoll metropolitan/non-metropolitan breakdowns are an eye-opener: Labor’s metropolitan vote is recorded as slumping from 47.4 per cent in 2006 to just 34 per cent, with the Liberals up from 34.5 per cent to 43 per cent. Yet for all the talk of a regional backlash, Labor’s non-metropolitan primary vote is only down from 36.1 per cent to 32 per cent, and the Coalition are treading water on 48 per cent compared with 47.8 per cent in 2006. In two-party terms, I’m calculating a metropolitan swing of 10 per cent, but a non-metropolitan swing of less than 2 per cent. This is a super-sized version of the JWS Research poll, which respectively had it at 5.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent.

If such swings were uniform, Labor would lose government in Melbourne alone with the loss of 14 seats all the way up to Albert Park (9.7 per cent) without dropping a single seat outside Melbourne. Of course, it won’t play out exactly like that – Albert Park I expect is too established an area to swing that big, and outside Melbourne Labor expects to lose at least South Barwon and is very nervous about Ripon and Bendigo East as well. Election watchers should keep an eye on not only Yan Yean (7.9 per cent) but volatile outer suburban Narre Warren North (9.2 per cent) and Narre Warren South (11.1 per cent). If these seats look shaky, Newspoll has it right and Labor are gone. But if it’s not as bad for them as all that, I suggest it will come down to the Melbourne seats in the 6 to 7 per cent range (Bentleigh, Eltham and Carrum) along with Ripon and Bendigo East.

Without wishing to call the game too early, the prescience of Peter Brent at Mumble should be noted: the scenario just outlined was exactly as he saw it on October 21.

UPDATE 4: Here’s an update of my earlier table.

Sample, Dates ALP 2PP ALP L-NP GRN
Nielsen 1533, 24-25/11 48 34 45 14
Newspoll 1451, 24-25/11 48.9 33 45 15
Galaxy 800, 23-24/11 50 36 44 14
Morgan 990, 22-25/11 49 35.5 44.5 13
JWS Research 9218, 20-22/11 50.1 35 39 19
Galaxy 500, 17-18/11 51 36 42 16
Morgan 943, 16-18/11 52.5 39 41.5 15.5
Nielsen 1000, 10-11/11 52 38 40 16
Newspoll 1000, 9-11/11 51 37 44 14
Nielsen 1000, 27-28/10 53 38 38 16
2006 ELECTION 54.4 43.1 39.6 10.0

And here are the Labor two-party figures with a trend line running through them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

482 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria; Newspoll: 51.1-48.9”

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  1. lizzie

    exactly right. It has been happening a lot lately. Every week, you hear about a truck either getting stuck under a bridge or crashing into a pylon

  2. [Apparently, some editor of the Age was on ABC radio during week. He said wtte that it was their job to provide proper analysis of the policies being put forward by the parties and not get caught up in populist drivel?]

    We’d expect them to say that though wouldn’t we. I’d expect Mitchell of the OO to say that when defending their attacks on KR and JG too.

  3. Mexican

    Going back into history, the rail infrastructure that was built in the 19th century lasted until the 1960s as there were so many gaps in suburbia to fill in. But except for the city loop in about 1980 there have been no substantive extensions since the 1920s.

    Victoria,the Hurstbridge line is a disgrace and again no excuse from either side on why it shouldn’t have been massively improved years ago.

  4. Mexican

    You didn’t mention that the Desal plant was Liberalpolicy in 2006 which the ALP pilloried unmercifully. Then after the election they changed their minds.

  5. blacksburnseph

    I travel along the Hurstbridge line. One positive aspect from my perspective, is in my area at least. There are no level crossings on roads. Some lines go under roads, and some above them. Therefore not disrupting traffic too much.

  6. blackburnpseph

    I am aware of that and I was disappointed with the ALP at the time for I think it should have been widly supported

  7. The PTUA claim that the Road lobby rule the roost but in reality that is a preception in many ways similar to the NIMBY types claim the Government is owned by greedy developers

  8. [we seem to agree on this blog, that Ballieu does not scare us. But what about the rest of his team?]

    That’s a lot like Redmond here. She’s intelligent and reasonable but her factional backer, Ian Evans and his allies on the Right all sit on the front bench with her – they’re the worry.

  9. Talking of baseball bats, I think the “double-header” at the Showgrounds could be a “rainout”

    fredn 441
    [I’ve been out of construction for 20 years and just came back, I can’t get over how difficult it is to get anything done now.[
    We don’t do infrastructure well in Australia.

  10. Greens hint a deal with Labor if there is a deadlock

    That’d be a given wouldn’t it?
    We have Lab/Green coalitions in Tas, Fed and NSW have done a deal already so Victoria would follow suit you’d think.

  11. [TSOP

    Yes, that has been my main concern with Ballieu getting in. I suppose if they do get up today, we will soon find out.]

    I take it Vic is like here, in that the state Liberal party has better luck when it is seen as “wet” and “progressive”

    I recall the really unpopular Right wing Lib leader, John Olsen, who was a failure of an OL. Then, a year or so after the very moderate Dean Brown led the Libs into government, Olsen got his factional allies to help him overthrow Brown as Premier. The subsequent election, they went from having a landslide hold on parliament, to a razor thin majority.

  12. TSOP 470

    I was in Darwin in 1997 and I said to an Adelaidean I was working with “Well, the Libs can’t possibly lose this election, holding 37 out of 47 seats” – to which they replied “You don’t know Olsen!”

    they were nearly right

  13. Channel 10 news needs a political lession for they had a journ go out to the seat of Ferntree Gully and according to Mal Walden the seat is the states most marginal ALP seat.

    Interesting to see Carrum get a mention on Sky.

  14. Late and large swing to Baillieu is happening on the ground today. This will be bigger than any scribe or academic has predicted. Brumby is about to be swept away.

  15. Before Black Saturday I would have been predicing a big Liberal win but in recent months I have seen very little to indicate that the voters were still has angry.

  16. Mexican

    Agree that before Black Saturday the government was really losing it. The enormity of the disaster sucked out all the political oxygen from any other issue.

  17. @ 477 or 478 – from whence does your collective bad mood come? I’m on the ground in Perth and perhaps not privy to the latest details ….

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