Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria; Newspoll: 51.1-48.9

GhostWhoVotes reports an unpleasant surprise for Victorian Labor in the final Nielsen poll of the campaign, which has the Coalition seizing a 52-48 two-party lead. More to follow.

UPDATE: And now Newspoll confirms the picture of a late swing of considerable force, putting the Coalition in front 51.1-48.9. Labor’s primary vote is at just 33 per cent, with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1451, boosted from the normally 1000-ish as usual for a final pre-election poll. John Brumby is down four on approval to 38 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent, while Ted Baillieu is up four to 44 per cent and down two to 44 per cent. Brumby nonetheless leads as preferred premier 48 per cent to 38 per cent, and Labor is expected to win by 55 per cent against 26 per cent for the Coalition. Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

The Age reports the primary votes from Nielsen are Labor 34 per cent, Coalition 45 per cent and Greens 14 per cent – a very similar set of figures to Newspoll, suggesting the 52 per cent Liberal two-party result has benefited from rounding. Nielsen has better personal ratings for both leaders: Brumby is on 46 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval, with Baillieu on 48 per cent and 42 per cent. Brumby’s lead as preferred premier is narrower, at 49-44.

UPDATE 3: The Newspoll metropolitan/non-metropolitan breakdowns are an eye-opener: Labor’s metropolitan vote is recorded as slumping from 47.4 per cent in 2006 to just 34 per cent, with the Liberals up from 34.5 per cent to 43 per cent. Yet for all the talk of a regional backlash, Labor’s non-metropolitan primary vote is only down from 36.1 per cent to 32 per cent, and the Coalition are treading water on 48 per cent compared with 47.8 per cent in 2006. In two-party terms, I’m calculating a metropolitan swing of 10 per cent, but a non-metropolitan swing of less than 2 per cent. This is a super-sized version of the JWS Research poll, which respectively had it at 5.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent.

If such swings were uniform, Labor would lose government in Melbourne alone with the loss of 14 seats all the way up to Albert Park (9.7 per cent) without dropping a single seat outside Melbourne. Of course, it won’t play out exactly like that – Albert Park I expect is too established an area to swing that big, and outside Melbourne Labor expects to lose at least South Barwon and is very nervous about Ripon and Bendigo East as well. Election watchers should keep an eye on not only Yan Yean (7.9 per cent) but volatile outer suburban Narre Warren North (9.2 per cent) and Narre Warren South (11.1 per cent). If these seats look shaky, Newspoll has it right and Labor are gone. But if it’s not as bad for them as all that, I suggest it will come down to the Melbourne seats in the 6 to 7 per cent range (Bentleigh, Eltham and Carrum) along with Ripon and Bendigo East.

Without wishing to call the game too early, the prescience of Peter Brent at Mumble should be noted: the scenario just outlined was exactly as he saw it on October 21.

UPDATE 4: Here’s an update of my earlier table.

Sample, Dates ALP 2PP ALP L-NP GRN
Nielsen 1533, 24-25/11 48 34 45 14
Newspoll 1451, 24-25/11 48.9 33 45 15
Galaxy 800, 23-24/11 50 36 44 14
Morgan 990, 22-25/11 49 35.5 44.5 13
JWS Research 9218, 20-22/11 50.1 35 39 19
Galaxy 500, 17-18/11 51 36 42 16
Morgan 943, 16-18/11 52.5 39 41.5 15.5
Nielsen 1000, 10-11/11 52 38 40 16
Newspoll 1000, 9-11/11 51 37 44 14
Nielsen 1000, 27-28/10 53 38 38 16
2006 ELECTION 54.4 43.1 39.6 10.0

And here are the Labor two-party figures with a trend line running through them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

482 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria; Newspoll: 51.1-48.9”

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  2. Yeah Brumby voting in Prahran is unusual considering he woudl haev started the day from home not that far from Broady.

    While I was not a fan of Jeff but in fairness to him he did inherit a basketcaser that needed major reorganising. I would expect who ever wins will not be faced with the samke problems thanks in part to the very strong economy delivered by Jules and Co

  3. In terms of actual liberal policies, there was nothing scary in them. Alot of wishful thinking, especially around the implementation but nothing in the realm of workchoices scary or even kennet scary. I have to say, for the portfolios I have looked after anyway, the red book and the blue book are pretty similiar save for a few minor wording changes.

  5. fredn

    [in the end Brumby’s support for the broad band network and the Liberals going on about mandatory sentencing]
    The people reacting to the Libs scare campaign about rising crime are probably also the ones who don’t care about broadband, so that’s a plus for Baillieu. I’m very glad you chose the shining path to virtue instead. 🙂
    All the same, I think Brumby deserves a kick in the pants, but hope it’s not fatal.

  6. [Is anybody else tired of hearing the “baseball bat” analogy to describe anti-government sentiment? ]

    A cricket bat is the correct term.

  7. I think that transport will also be a clincher – I looked into the faces of my fellow passengers yesterday when my train broke down and tried to divine their political thoughts!!

  8. I’m not sure if I mentioned it, but the Financial Review did indeed endorse the return of the government. So if the Coalition wins, the voters will have defied the unanimous will of the print media establishment. Won’t that be neat.

  9. Victoria – I am standing by my predictions from yesterday but in the last few days I have sensed a mood change, a bit like the one I had in 99.

    I still think most of the swing will go to the Greens then back to the ALP via perferences.

    Truthy Ted happens to be a latte sipper

  10. blackburnseph

    there are definitely problems with the train system. But do you really believe the Libs will handle it any better. It all boils down to cost. The cost of upgrading our rail system is huge.

    People want things, without paying. If people are prepared to pay what is needed to upgrade the system, it will be fixed no matter who is in power.

  12. William Bowe

    the Herald Sun have been pretty fair to Labor in the past few months. Having said that, they were hard on them during past two years over transport matters and law and order.

  13. The reason Bundy didn’t vote local was because he got scared off by protesters apparently.

    Victorian Premier John Brumby made a last-minute change to his election day plans as protesters caused a disturbance at his chosen polling booth.

    Mr Brumby had intended to cast his vote at a Prahran primary school but changed his mind minutes before his expected arrival.

    Police had been called to the location due to complaints over anti-development protesters handing out pamphlets too close to the polling station.

    Officers arrived to move the group of half a dozen people across the road from the polling station, where they held placards against a new high-rise tower planned for their leafy suburb.

    His missus seems pretty confident of a labor win.

    However, his wife, Rosemary, was far more confident in tipping a winner.

    “Labor. Definitely,” she said, standing beside him.

    “I’m feeling really fantastic. He’s run a great campaign and I’m positive of the outcome.”

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/brumby-casts-vote-in-tight-vic-election-20101127-18b5r.html

  14. @ William …. “William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, November 27, 2010 at 3:46 pm | Permalink
    I’m not sure if I mentioned it, but the Financial Review did indeed endorse the return of the government. So if the Coalition wins, the voters will have defied the unanimous will of the print media establishment. Won’t that be neat.”

    Does that imply that the Herald Sun and the Age both endorsed Brumby? If so, the latter would be expected, the former would be a shock, especially when they trumpet each snippet of bad news for Labor on the front page of their website.

  15. Mostly from the polling but late last week some of the ALP people I talk were in a somber mood.

    I guess we can never accuse ALP voters of being like Collingwood supporters.

  23. The problem with the Train system is we are trying to run a moden Train network on something that was laid down over 100 years ago.

  24. [the Herald Sun have been pretty fair to Labor in the past few months]

    Which was countered by the continual attacks by The Age which appeared was similar to the negativism we see aimed at federal Labor by the OO. I don’t what Brumby has it is that has peeved The Age so much.

  26. mexicanbeemer

    speaking to some involved in transport. They have said that the system upgrade is actually prohibitive. Don’t know how accurate that is, but I guess if it were manageable, it would have been done by now.

  29. Victoria

    A lot of the problems in transport come down to administration. The Libs and Greens have both proposed a new co-ordinating body similar to the one that operates (apparently)very successfully in Perth. The Public Transport Users endoorsed the Libs over the ALP on transport.

    During thkis week there was a major meltdown almost every day at least on one line – Werribee line one day, Sydenham another, there was one day this week when there were no trains at all in the AM rush hour on the Dandenong line.

    Agree it takes lots of money, but there has been lots of talk for not much improvement.

  30. Tom Hawkins

    Apparently, some editor of the Age was on ABC radio during week. He said wtte that it was their job to provide proper analysis of the policies being put forward by the parties and not get caught up in populist drivel?

  31. victoria

    Therefore if Baillieu is to carry out his promises on transport, prisons, etc., he will have to cut something. I’m not sure he has given us any details of proposed cuts.

  33. blacksburseph

    management is not the issue. As mexicanbeemer said. It is updating the infrastructure. It is old and all we are doing is patching it up as needed. Those in the know, say it is such an expensive exercise, and the state can’t afford it basically.

  35. The sad thing is when Melbourne had that massive growth spurt after the second world war no one bothered to build the Rail network resulting in the current problems.

    A lot of work has been carryied out in upgrading the Rail network but there still remains a lot to do and like everything it comes back to money.

  36. lizzie

    as an example, there is rail bridge in Heidelberg. It is over a 100 years old. It needs replacing very soon. Just this bridge alone is extremely expensive and disruptive to the system. I don’t believe people really understand the size and scope that is required to update our rail system.

  39. Victoria

    No disputing the infrastructure is old,run down, needs pots of meny spent but there is also no coordination body to supervise and implement and take responsibility. That is what I meant by management.

  45. Brumby was scared off on the other side of town

    blackburnpseph
    Not being a victorian, I gather what you are saying is that the protesters were ring ins from a blue ribbon posh Lib safe seat? Who don’t want the rabble building high rises and moving in! 😉

  46. Vic

    biggest problem is transport companies dont pay enough tax

    a truck does 100 times more damage than a car

    all freight should go by rail any way with mini hubs to distribute to local areas

  47. Taking everything from an opposing view, Baillieu wouldn’t have any more money to play with, and we really don’t know much about his team’s abilities in management.

  48. blackburnpseph

    The rail network has been run by the same department for 150 years.

    The Desalination project was a must do. Channel Deepening was done inorder to accomendate larger ships but I will aghree that I would not have done the Pipeline in the way it was done, I would rather have built one from the Desalination Plant in exchange of increasing water flows into the states river systems

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