After a fairly lengthy period where the phone pollsters marched in lock-step, GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has broken away from the pack with a 52-48 lead for Labor. More to follow.
UPDATE: The Australian reports Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 49-34 to 54-31, but that “only 23 per cent of voters believe the government should go ahead with the NBN without meeting the Coalition demands for a full costing of the venture”.
UPDATE 2: Full tables here, as usual courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36 per cent, the Coalition down four to 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 14 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up five to 46 per cent and her disapproval down four to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 42 per cent and up three on disapproval to 45 per cent. Given the lack of corroboration elsewhere, the collective move in Labor’s favour should be treated with due caution (although their figures were probably a bit undercooked in the previous poll). On the National Broadband Network, 42 per cent support the Coalition’s demand for a cost-benefit analysis with the aforementioned 23 per cent opposed, while 19 per cent express wholesale opposition to the project “in its current form”.
Other matters:
• Peter Wellington, who has enjoyed enormous electoral success since winning the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin at the 1998 state election, says he will run in the corresponding federal seat of Fairfax if the Coalition’s “spoiler” tactics succeed in bringing on an early election. Fairfax has been held since 1990 by Alex Somlyay, a former Liberal and current Liberal National who has said he will not seek another term. Kate Dennehy of Fairfax reports speculation that James McGrath, a “former federal Liberal Party deputy director who reportedly had a falling out with its director”, might be interested in the LNP preselection.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald has more on JWS Research focus group findings which were reported on in the context of the Victorian election by the Sunday Herald-Sun, this time in relation to federal politics. Labor is said to be suffering a perception that having dumped one leader they could very easily dump another, and that its minority government position has made it “too afraid to make a decision at the risk of offending someone”. While Gillard is “liked”, voters “do not think she is shaping up well as a leader”. However, Tony Abbott has problems of his own, with women finding him “a bit of a bully boy”.
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports speculation Alannah MacTiernan will run for lord mayor of Perth next year, after failing in her recent bid to move from state to federal politics. The story goes that MacTiernan is keen to again run federally for Canning, but “a three-year wait for another federal election was proving too much”. The report also says Labor was hoping the present lord mayor, Lisa Scaffidi, might make way for by running for the party at the next state election, but the ABC reports she “angrily rejected” suggestions she might do so.
• Tasmania’s Legislative Council last week voted against a motion supporting an increase in the chamber’s numbers from 15 to 19. This follows an agreement between the Labor, Liberal and Greens leaders last month that the Legislative Assembly should revert to the 35-member seven-seat region model which prevailed until 1998, when Labor and the Liberals combined to support a 25-member five-seat model in the expectation that it would neuter the Greens. The ongoing rise in the latter’s electoral support gave lie to that, and the state returned to minority government with the election of one Greens member in each region at the election held in March – with the added sting of the major parties being deprived of the range of parliamentary talent that they would have enjoyed in the old days. However, Premier David Bartlett told Tim Cox on ABC Radio that it would be up to the Council to decide if it wanted to follow suit in reverting to its pre-1998 numbers. The motion was opposed by the chamber’s three Labor members, who were no doubt mindful that the proposed increase in lower house numbers was a hard enough sell as it was – although the solitary Liberal, Vanessa Goodwin, joined with four independents in support.
• Also in Tasmania, state Treasurer Michael Aird has announced he will be quitting his upper house seat of Derwent, to which he was re-elected for a six-year term at the periodical election in May 2009. This means an election for the seat will be held concurrently with the annual periodical upper house elections on the first Saturday in May, which next year will cover the seats of Launceston (previously known as Paterson), Murchison and Rumney, respectively held by independent Don Wing, independent Ruth Forrest and Labor’s Lin Thorp. The ABC reports talk Labor preselection might be contested by David Llewellyn, who lost his seat in Lyons to party rival Rebecca White. More surprisingly, Damien Brown of The Mercury reports former Premier Paul Lennon might fancy a tilt at the seat. The Liberals have confirmed they will field a candidate for the seat, which has traditionally been safe for Labor.
[A victory for real liberals, says Fraser Peter Ker
November 29, 2010
TED Baillieu’s strong performance is proof that Victorians want a Liberal Party that is moderate rather than conservative, according to former prime minister Malcolm Fraser.
As Liberal elders identified the handling of Green preferences and personal attacks on Mr Baillieu as key factors in bringing the Labor government to the brink of defeat, Mr Fraser said there was an important lesson in the divergent results for Victorian Liberals in this year’s federal and state elections.
Victoria proved to be barren ground for arch-conservative Tony Abbott’s federal coalition at the August election, winning just 44.69 per cent of the state’s vote on a two-party basis.
Advertisement: Story continues below Just three months later Mr Baillieu – who has a socially progressive record on issues like abortion, stem-cell research and physician-assisted dying – appears set to record a two-party preferred vote above 50 per cent and claim government.
Mr Fraser said it was a ”very encouraging day for liberal Liberals”.
”Victorians want to vote for a centre-of-the-road Liberal Party, they don’t want hard right conservatives, and they don’t want to be lead in that hard right conservative direction,” he said.
]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-election-2010/a-victory-for-real-liberals-says-fraser-20101128-18cej.html
Just what I was thinking. The Vic election result was a disaster for Tony Abbott.
If Victorian voters had voted for Abbott the same way they voted for Ballieu then Abbott would be PM with a handy lead.
Nice to see the Vic Libs kept Abbott away for most of the campaign but I heard that Turnbull was down there a bit.
s
What time is the House sitting today please – I can’t seem to find it on the PH site
I wonder what Andrew Robb makes of the whole thing. After all it was his home state that kept Abbott from the Lodge.
Fraser talking about Victoria being a victory for “liberal Liberals”.
My feeling is that he would love to rejoin the Liberal Party, but not while Abbott is running the show. Once Abbott is rolled out of the way, see what happens. Unless Abbott is replaced by a similar right wing ideologue, in which case Fraser wouldn’t be interested.
Cuppa – did you see that article in the OO re the ABC?
tweets
[mattwordsworth premier says it’s him or me with regards to Bernie riordan’s resignation #nswvotes
15 minutes ago via TweetDeck .
KevinWilde KK says ALP Admin Committee meets this Fri and may drop Bernie Riordan as party Pres if he doesn’t quit #nswvotes ]
Back me or else didn’t work so well for Iemma.
But this underlies the issue of having no structural separation between unions and the ALP. It makes for difficult governance when their is disagreements.
their – there.
Hi, BH, no, have not checked the OO or the ABC lately.
Be back later.
Ross Gittins giving Labor a basic lesson in explaining cost of living. I hope they heed it but Ross could also point out that the media encourage the complaining and whining.
[The obvious fact is the cost of living is always rising. That’s not news. What matters is whether people’s incomes are at least keeping up with the cost of living. And they are – easily. While consumer prices rose by 2.8 per cent over the year to September, the wage cost index rose by 3.6 per cent.
While prices rose by 1.3 per cent over the previous year, wages rose by 3.1 per cent. Over the five years to September, prices rose by 15.7 per cent, while wages rose by 20.8 per cent. So real wages have been rising by about 1 per cent a year.
It’s because the cost of living is always rising that pensions are always being increased. They’re actually indexed not to prices but to average income, meaning they grow in real terms. And last year the government gave pensioners (but not people on the dole) a big one-off increase.
So the rising cost of living is being outstripped by the rising standard of living. But still they whinge. And what do our piss-weak pollies say? ”I feel your pain.”]
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/22/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-5/comment-page-88/#comment-697191
Cuppa – for later
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/abc-needs-stronger-news-focus/story-e6frg71x-1225960432191
This is in a general sense about defamation in Australia and reflects my opinion on the general state of journalism, reporting and the law in Australia. Any links to current legal events may or may not be relevant.
However, Australia’s defamstion laws are now standard across all jurisdictions. The NSW Law states that:
[29 Defences of fair report of proceedings of public concern
(1) It is a defence to the publication of defamatory matter if the defendant proves that the matter was, or was contained in, a fair report of any proceedings of public concern. ]
And the legislation goes on to list a proceeding of public concern including:
[(l) any proceedings of a public meeting (with or without restriction on the people attending) held anywhere in Australia if the proceedings relate to a matter of public interest, including the advocacy or candidature of a person for public office]
If someone was to threaten defamation against a party who reported what someone said at a public event it would be hard to see how such a defamation suit would be successful.
It would prevent all journalists from being able to report “Tony Abbott said that…”
Karzai sounds wonderful.
[Russia’s president Dmitry Medvedev “plays Robin to Putin’s Batman.”
French president Nicholas Sarkozy displayed a “thin-skinned and authoritarian personal style.”
Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi is described as “feckless, vain, and ineffective as a modern European leader.”
Hamid Karzai, is “an extremely weak man who did not listen to facts but was instead easily swayed by anyone who came to report even the most bizarre stories or plots against him.”]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/28/wikileaks-us-embassy-cables-documents_n_788893.html
Diog,
If that is what this wikileaks has to offer then it is no more useful than a gossip mag. I mean, really. The occasional badmouthing of world figures by junior embassy staff. So what?
Its no more than gets published in leaders memoirs on their retirement.
Come on wikileaks. Show me some substance.
Not sure if you’ll get anything super explosive bg
[
Intended to be read by officials in Washington up to the level of the secretary of state, the cables are generally drafted by the ambassador or subordinates. Although their contents are often startling and troubling, the cables are unlikely to gratify conspiracy theorists. They do not contain evidence of assassination plots, CIA bribery or such criminal enterprises as the Iran-Contra scandal in the Reagan years, when anti-Nicaraguan guerrillas were covertly financed.
One reason may be that America’s most sensitive “top secret” and above foreign intelligence files cannot be accessed from Siprnet, the defence department network involved.
]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/how-us-embassy-cables-leaked
Former premier and treasurer take on Riordan on Carr’s blog site. Blog post from Carr and comment from Michael Egan.
[Riordan and Labor
November 28, 2010
by Bob Carr
Bernie twice blocked electricity privatization costing the state’s public sector an injection of $30 to $35 billion ( in 1997 dollars) an act that more than anything savaged the government’s credibility. To think of the same man now promising union support to Coalition candidates in the forthcoming election is well, some what challenging! Riordan denies this is what he’s about. Some think it’s the work of an over-excited union media officer. Let it pass but spare a thought for Premier Keneally who is entitled to express lack of confidence in Riordan. She doesn’t deserve this. She deserves a medal for putting up with half the things the party sends her. And spare a thought for what 30 billion bucks might have delivered for the state if Bernie hadn’t insisted they continued to be locked up in the ownership of depreciating power plants instead of going to new rail lines, hospitals, roads and schools.
Michael Egan permalink
November 28, 2010 5:46 pm
Three cheers for Kristina. Riordan has been a complete disaster as President of the New South Wales ALP and should resign or be forced out. Riordan, don’t forget, was one of the ring leaders of the attempt to blockade Labor MP’s from attending Parliament to vote on the reforms to Workers Compensation, reforms that have not only saved the scheme from bankruptcy but also significantly improved the lot of injured employees. Bernie has always been a political bully. The Premier deserves full marks for taking him on.
]
For me this just backs up my comment on the need for structural separation of the unions from the ALP. It makes for bad governance.
http://bobcarrblog.wordpress.com/2010/11/28/riordan-and-labor/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
bob carr’s blog link
Update from Bob Carr
[And another thought…
November 28, 2010
by Bob Carr
How can the party president be even associated with a call to support the candidates of another political party? A rank and file member would be marched out of the party for saying he or she would back Coalition candidates. And isn’t the role of a party president to support the party, old fashioned notion though that is ?
Especially at such an acutely difficult time. At such a time, as well, the party has no alternative to back it’s leader…and Bernie none except to go. ]
It’s OK, she is a fully qualified nurse from Berlusconi University, Sardinia and personally trained by the old Silvio as was part of the “lavish gifts” to Putin which in turn became the “even more lavish gifts” from Putin to Gadaffi. Her name is Tatiana.
Eat your heart out, James. shaken?
[“The cables name countries involved in financing terror groups, and describe a near ‘environmental disaster’ last year over a rogue shipment of enriched uranium,” reports the Guardian. “They disclose technical details of secret US-Russian nuclear missile negotiations in Geneva, and include a profile of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who they say is accompanied everywhere by a ‘voluptuous blonde’ Ukrainian nurse.” …………….
The New York Times reports leaked diplomatic message traffic indicating that “Saudi donors remain the chief financiers of Sunni militant groups like Al Qaeda,” “clashes with Europe over human rights,” and an “intriguing alliance” between Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin and Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi involving “lavish gifts,” lucrative energy contracts and a “shadowy” Russian-speaking Italian go-between.]
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2010/1128/WikiLeaks-Leaked-cables-reveal-the-rough-workings-of-diplomacy
[madcyril
Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 11:44 am | Permalink
Not sure if you’ll get anything super explosive bg]
So its watercooler-gossip-leaks – not Wikileaks.
bg
[Saudi donors remain the chief financiers of Sunni militant groups like Al Qaeda]
That is fairly significant. People will ask why Iraq was targetted as supporting al_Qaeda when the US knew the Saudis were the main financial supporters. They will also ask what is being done about Saudi to curb its support for terrorism.
[That is fairly significant. People will ask why Iraq was targetted as supporting al_Qaeda when the US knew the Saudis were the main financial supporters. They will also ask what is being done about Saudi to curb its support for terrorism.]
Unless the info comes from a senior level diplomat that is traceable to someone like a secreatery of state it is meaningless.
Senators and Congressman have been raising this for ages and ages.
HoR on now.
bg
Now we know that the SOS etc knew.
[Diogenes
Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 12:08 pm | Permalink
bg
Now we know that the SOS etc knew.]
I wonder what she will say.
Diogenes and Bluegreen
The difference is that Saudi royal family are friends of the West and does not call about the militant groups, while Saddam was a supporter of those groups.
So the West decide to ask the Saudi royal family to crack down on the support for Al Queda, rather than invade.
Except there is only a limited amount that the Saudi royal family can do
I am in time to watch more unhinging. Apparently the Libs have forgotten about the Rodent was PM with wall to wall Labor state governments.
Bitter, sour and sad. Yep, just about sums up the loto.
bg
[I wonder what she will say.
]
The same as Downer said at the AWB hearings.
“A weak man with his lack of conviction on display for all to see.” Julia is doing him and not slowly.
dovif
[while Saddam was a supporter of those groups]
Umm. No he wasn’t. They didn’t come up with anything to link Saddam with al Qaeda.
dovif
Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 12:13 pm | Permalink
[Diogenes and Bluegreen
The difference is that Saudi royal family are friends of the West and does not call about the militant groups, while Saddam was a supporter of those groups.
So the West decide to ask the Saudi royal family to crack down on the support for Al Queda, rather than invade.
Except there is only a limited amount that the Saudi royal family can do]
My knowledge of Middle Eastern internal politics is marginally more than zero, but close enough to zero really.
So are the Saudis (ie the govt) being helpful or a hindrance?
Julia calls loto weak. “weak, weak, weak!”
“It’s your tactic, it is not my fault it is going so badly.”in reply to a point of order.
[puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 12:24 pm | Permalink
“A weak man with his lack of conviction on display for all to see.” Julia is doing him and not slowly.]
When she goes for his lack of moral core it will be interesting.
Good day for Abbott then?
[mfarnsworth Rob Oakeshott speaks: says he came to debate issues, not for “politics over policy”. Six of us turned up for work, where are your members?
half a minute ago via TweetDeck .
swrightwestoz Oakeshott says he did not come to parly for “rhetoric over reality”. Tells the Opp to “turn up for work”… TA’s tactic working a treat.
less than a minute ago via web .
latikambourke JG responds ‘The Opposition’s come here today to have a temper tantrum acting like 2yr olds mired in their bitterness.’ ]
Oaky is calling them all on going for the photo-shoot and everyone not turning up for work today in the House. Not sure which side he was castigating, or both.
Seems like Oaky was angry with the oppn. He was steaming.
some very very interesting exchanges on twitter regarding posettigate
#twitdef
[ #twitdef Fascinating claim! http://bit.ly/hMDYsy Should a newspaper editor sue a reporter for defamation is irrelevant to: http://jr.ly/5yh5 ]
http://twitter.com/jayrosen_nyu
Harry is grumpy. I do not think he is happy to be still in the chair today. I think LOTO must have been reading ‘How to Lose Friends and Infuriate People.”
[So are the Saudis (ie the govt) being helpful or a hindrance?]
There are so many extremists among highly placed Saudis that they turn a blind eye. Dont’ forget 15/20 of the 9-11 bombers were Saudis.
Gusface,
it seems that the national broadsheet is upset that the academic did not check with them before publishing something about them. But then the broadsheet went on to publish something about the academic with out checking with the academic for their version of events.
Hypocrisy writ large.
So what happened to the idea of not granting pairs?
Diogenes @ 4391
And how many were Iraquis? None. So much for Saddam, for all his evils, supporting Al Queda. In truth his relationship with Osama bin Laden was one of mutual loathing.
Gusface
[BernardKeane: RT @julieposetti: I can confirm that @sally_Jackson has not contacted me for comment on her story in today's Oz #twitdef ]
It is awfully strage being on the same side as gusface.
[There are so many extremists among highly placed Saudis that they turn a blind eye. Dont’ forget 15/20 of the 9-11 bombers were Saudis.]
Too much money and not enough to do.
From another forum regarding Wikileaks:
Statement from journalism education association. Nothing from the National Press Club.
[JEA Statement on #twitdef
The following letter has been issued with the agreement of the Executive of the JEAA, on behalf of the Association and its members, in relation to the threat byThe Australian editor Chris Mitchell to sue journalism academic and journalist Julie Posetti for defamation, following a tweet she sent from the JEAA 2010 conference on Friday 26 November.
The Journalism Education Association of Australia represents journalism educators and researchers. One of our objectives is to promote freedom of expression and communication [http://www.jeaa.org.au]. We are concerned that a journalist and journalism academic, using Twitter to report events and speakers from our recent conference in Sydney [http://www.jeaaconference.org/] has been threatened with legal action for so reporting. We strongly support the right of any journalist or academic to report and comment. We are concerned when journalists threaten others with law suits. The implications of the situation are serious for the many people who use Twitter to provide “as live” reporting of public comments and for fair report in general. We stand in support of informed debate, including criticism of the media and we support our colleagues’ right to report fairly on all issues in the public interest.
(Signed) Anne Dunn
President, JEAA
]
[Topics:]
So nothing about the previous years and Howard and Downer by the look of it. How disappointing.