Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After a fairly lengthy period where the phone pollsters marched in lock-step, GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has broken away from the pack with a 52-48 lead for Labor. More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian reports Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 49-34 to 54-31, but that “only 23 per cent of voters believe the government should go ahead with the NBN without meeting the Coalition demands for a full costing of the venture”.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here, as usual courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36 per cent, the Coalition down four to 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 14 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up five to 46 per cent and her disapproval down four to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 42 per cent and up three on disapproval to 45 per cent. Given the lack of corroboration elsewhere, the collective move in Labor’s favour should be treated with due caution (although their figures were probably a bit undercooked in the previous poll). On the National Broadband Network, 42 per cent support the Coalition’s demand for a cost-benefit analysis with the aforementioned 23 per cent opposed, while 19 per cent express wholesale opposition to the project “in its current form”.

Other matters:

• Peter Wellington, who has enjoyed enormous electoral success since winning the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin at the 1998 state election, says he will run in the corresponding federal seat of Fairfax if the Coalition’s “spoiler” tactics succeed in bringing on an early election. Fairfax has been held since 1990 by Alex Somlyay, a former Liberal and current Liberal National who has said he will not seek another term. Kate Dennehy of Fairfax reports speculation that James McGrath, a “former federal Liberal Party deputy director who reportedly had a falling out with its director”, might be interested in the LNP preselection.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald has more on JWS Research focus group findings which were reported on in the context of the Victorian election by the Sunday Herald-Sun, this time in relation to federal politics. Labor is said to be suffering a perception that having dumped one leader they could very easily dump another, and that its minority government position has made it “too afraid to make a decision at the risk of offending someone”. While Gillard is “liked”, voters “do not think she is shaping up well as a leader”. However, Tony Abbott has problems of his own, with women finding him “a bit of a bully boy”.

• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports speculation Alannah MacTiernan will run for lord mayor of Perth next year, after failing in her recent bid to move from state to federal politics. The story goes that MacTiernan is keen to again run federally for Canning, but “a three-year wait for another federal election was proving too much”. The report also says Labor was hoping the present lord mayor, Lisa Scaffidi, might make way for by running for the party at the next state election, but the ABC reports she “angrily rejected” suggestions she might do so.

• Tasmania’s Legislative Council last week voted against a motion supporting an increase in the chamber’s numbers from 15 to 19. This follows an agreement between the Labor, Liberal and Greens leaders last month that the Legislative Assembly should revert to the 35-member seven-seat region model which prevailed until 1998, when Labor and the Liberals combined to support a 25-member five-seat model in the expectation that it would neuter the Greens. The ongoing rise in the latter’s electoral support gave lie to that, and the state returned to minority government with the election of one Greens member in each region at the election held in March – with the added sting of the major parties being deprived of the range of parliamentary talent that they would have enjoyed in the old days. However, Premier David Bartlett told Tim Cox on ABC Radio that it would be up to the Council to decide if it wanted to follow suit in reverting to its pre-1998 numbers. The motion was opposed by the chamber’s three Labor members, who were no doubt mindful that the proposed increase in lower house numbers was a hard enough sell as it was – although the solitary Liberal, Vanessa Goodwin, joined with four independents in support.

• Also in Tasmania, state Treasurer Michael Aird has announced he will be quitting his upper house seat of Derwent, to which he was re-elected for a six-year term at the periodical election in May 2009. This means an election for the seat will be held concurrently with the annual periodical upper house elections on the first Saturday in May, which next year will cover the seats of Launceston (previously known as Paterson), Murchison and Rumney, respectively held by independent Don Wing, independent Ruth Forrest and Labor’s Lin Thorp. The ABC reports talk Labor preselection might be contested by David Llewellyn, who lost his seat in Lyons to party rival Rebecca White. More surprisingly, Damien Brown of The Mercury reports former Premier Paul Lennon might fancy a tilt at the seat. The Liberals have confirmed they will field a candidate for the seat, which has traditionally been safe for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,545 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. [I just heard it being announced on Sky earlier today. Did not hear much else.]

    I heard it in passing too – about 1/2 hr ago between News bulletins.

    Looks as tho they are helping the Libs the way Fox helps the Repubs in the US.

  3. 4497: Wasn’t a censure motion. Motion was “That this House calls on the Prime Minister to immediately explain to the Parliament how a Government that has lost its way has suddenly found it despite the evidence to the contrary”

  4. [apparently Abbott is conducting a community meeting and it will be televised on Sky News tonight.]

    The Oz version of a tea baggers rally.

  6. [Motion was “That this House calls on the Prime Minister to immediately explain to the Parliament how a Government that has lost its way has suddenly found it despite the evidence to the contrary”]

    What a complete waste of time. What a bunch of losers.

  9. Victoria silly me i thought the vote would be thismorning, I thought they would all turn up vote and leave.
    Abbotts community meeting, will it be invited quests only,

    i suppose its sky answers to Questions and Answers,

  10. [how a Government that has lost its way has suddenly found it despite the evidence to the contrary]

    does this make any sence ”

  11. i was just thinking if i was going to a community forum there is NO way i would go to one that was televised, what i ask the Pm at labors is my business not the whole of australia., who wants to be on tv.

    this must be a tv show surely

  14. I lost count trying to follow two things at once, for some reason I though there was another day to this cricket match!

  18. I have just read Bernard Keane’s excellent article in today’s Crikey email about the decline into partisanship of the Oz, and its alleged attempts to silence dissenting opinion. Keane makes similar observations to PBers, so it’s good to know commenters here aren’t part of some awkward conspiracy-driven minority.

    News Ltd paywall reportedly comes into effect next year. Let’s hope it represents a turnaround in the quality of public debate in our media, as OO ‘contributions’ disappear into online obscurity.

  19. b-g

    apparently, Catholics are more likely to approve of gay marriage than any other religious group. This is according to Essential poll, and reported on ABC Twitter by Keane.

  21. Abbott’s Time Waster:

    Mr Abbott, 12:03:11 PM moved – That so much of the standing and sessional orders be suspended as would prevent the Leader of the Opposition to move the following motion forthwith—That this House calls on the Prime Minister to immediately explain to the Parliament how a Government that has lost its way has suddenly found it despite the evidence to the contrary, and in particular for:

    (1) treading water when it comes to policy reform;
    (2) being forced to admit to a secret plan to introduce a carbon tax despite her election promise not to;
    (3) failing to protect Australia’s borders with the arrival of three more boats over the weekend, making it 53 boats and 2,750 people since she became Prime Minister;
    (4) being distracted by issues such as gay-marriage and euthanasia when millions of Australian households are struggling to make ends meet with soaring power bills and cost of living pressures;
    (5) continuing to borrow $100 million dollars a day putting pressure on interest rates;
    (6) a back–stabbing, in-fighting style of Government that is all about factional control and not the good Government that Australians need and deserve;
    (7) pandering to the Greens with and agenda that is more about staying in power than delivering good and competent Government; and
    (8) the wasting of taxpayer dollars typified by its refusal to submit the $50 billion NBN Network to a full and transparent cost benefit analysis by the Productivity Commission which has the support of this Opposition, business leaders and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Mr Glenn Stevens.

  23. I have no idea what happened re pairing today but it would not surprise me if Abbott asked for the pairs.

    Labor would be caught in the middle. Disallow pairs today Abbott goes on about Government not sticking to agreement. Abbott could then disallow any pairing in future using today as a example.

    As I said I have no idea but nothing Abbott does or would try surprises me. Perhaps I am just jumping too quickly to conclusions.

  24. Shiftyphil,
    I wonder how anyone could bear to put their name to such a load of embarrassing, cringe-worthy drivel.

  25. Mr RAbbott,

    Thanks for putting my hard earned tax-paid funds to work. Nice to know that I got a free ticket to an extra showing of what is fast becoming the Oz Circus. $600,000 dollars pissed up against the wall of a half-arsed Las Vegas style circus where the LOTO and fellow clowns failed to even call a division!

  26. Doyley,
    Yes it would be a difficult one. I would have been tempted to refuse pairs as Abbott has already set the precedent. However maybe after Abbott’s earlier grandstanding about pairs the House has come to a workable arrangement and the PM did not want to upset that. It would be typical of sleazy tony.

  27. [I wonder how anyone could bear to put their name to such a load of embarrassing, cringe-worthy drivel.]
    It happens in The Australian everday Puff. 🙂

  28. b-g

    to be honest, don’t know how the question of gay marriage was put.

    Sky news just had a press conference with Julia, Steve Conroy and Anthony Albanese. I caught the end of it.
    Albanese was asked about pairing. He said wtte that pairing organised by whips, but some pairing was done because of pre-arranged meetings in FNQ re Wild Rivers meeting.
    From what I could gather, they were not impressed with Abbott’s tactics today. I wonder if this press conference will be replayed.

  30. so how many other times have we NOT needed a divison
    so when there is a division of course the name are recorded.

    wellllllllll ! gees i wish the public understood this.

    If we had a good press shouldnt this be front page.

  31. Yes, Mr RAbbott, I will think of that $600,000 tonight when I change my oldies incontinence pad, because I cannot get enough funding in his care package to have a care-worker come more than once a day.

  33. Puff,

    As a tax payer, I would gladly redirect said funds to the loving care of your oldie, however, I regret to inform you that is was pissed away on a grandstanding event of truly GRAND proportions. The LOTO said to tell you ‘it was truly cinematic’.

    Signed

    A truly embarrassed taxpayer.

  34. victoria – I wonder how ABC24 will report it. I’ll catch it later on multiview but let’s see how fair the ABC is about the waste of money on THursday and Friday in the Senate and again today.

  35. SK

    Did you happen to see Julia’s press conference on Sky channel? If so, they were mightly unimpressed with Abbott’s tactics and having to come back today, and then Abbott not even voting on the legislation.

  36. [I have no idea what happened re pairing today but it would not surprise me if Abbott asked for the pairs.]

    I can well understand the Govt/Albo granting pairs requests form the Oopo, but i don’t for one minute think that anyone on the Govt side believes that the Oopo will allow pairing when it counts for them.

    That said, sticking to agreements on pairing does show willing to the Greens/Indies that if anyone is going to break agreements and be politically opportunistic it will be the Oopo scum and not the Govt.

    Thought Julia G laying out the objectives for 2011 was a good idea. Don’t think any of it would come as a surprise to anyone and does set a tone for getting on with things once the Senate changes over. Also, gives the media something other than Abboott and his ilks unsubstantiated ranting to report on going into the Xmas break.

  37. BH

    I am going to see if this press conference is replayed on Sky mulitview later. It is well worth listening to from what I saw of it.

    With respect to reporting by the ABC who knows. I honestly have got to the point where I am truly disgusted in Abbott. He is unstable. I really believe it. He needs to be stopped by his colleagues. They need to dump him. His brand of politics is toxic to this country. I have never seen anything like it.

  39. [poor mans zizekPosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 3:33 pm | PermalinkGillard and Albanese got a good plug on ABC News Radio after the press conference.
    ]

    Same with ABC News 24 who ran the WHOLE presser including Questions – though whoever they interviewed after was her usual carping self.

  40. S’Kiddette,

    Thank you, and please do not be embarrassed. As taxpayers, we pay over the money; the politicians play with the money.

    I am comforted by the thought of the LOTO one day watching old videos of his glorious years while laying around waiting for someone to change his incontinence pad.

    In solidarity,
    Puff

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