After a fairly lengthy period where the phone pollsters marched in lock-step, GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has broken away from the pack with a 52-48 lead for Labor. More to follow.
UPDATE: The Australian reports Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 49-34 to 54-31, but that “only 23 per cent of voters believe the government should go ahead with the NBN without meeting the Coalition demands for a full costing of the venture”.
UPDATE 2: Full tables here, as usual courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36 per cent, the Coalition down four to 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 14 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up five to 46 per cent and her disapproval down four to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 42 per cent and up three on disapproval to 45 per cent. Given the lack of corroboration elsewhere, the collective move in Labor’s favour should be treated with due caution (although their figures were probably a bit undercooked in the previous poll). On the National Broadband Network, 42 per cent support the Coalition’s demand for a cost-benefit analysis with the aforementioned 23 per cent opposed, while 19 per cent express wholesale opposition to the project “in its current form”.
Other matters:
• Peter Wellington, who has enjoyed enormous electoral success since winning the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin at the 1998 state election, says he will run in the corresponding federal seat of Fairfax if the Coalition’s “spoiler” tactics succeed in bringing on an early election. Fairfax has been held since 1990 by Alex Somlyay, a former Liberal and current Liberal National who has said he will not seek another term. Kate Dennehy of Fairfax reports speculation that James McGrath, a “former federal Liberal Party deputy director who reportedly had a falling out with its director”, might be interested in the LNP preselection.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald has more on JWS Research focus group findings which were reported on in the context of the Victorian election by the Sunday Herald-Sun, this time in relation to federal politics. Labor is said to be suffering a perception that having dumped one leader they could very easily dump another, and that its minority government position has made it “too afraid to make a decision at the risk of offending someone”. While Gillard is “liked”, voters “do not think she is shaping up well as a leader”. However, Tony Abbott has problems of his own, with women finding him “a bit of a bully boy”.
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports speculation Alannah MacTiernan will run for lord mayor of Perth next year, after failing in her recent bid to move from state to federal politics. The story goes that MacTiernan is keen to again run federally for Canning, but “a three-year wait for another federal election was proving too much”. The report also says Labor was hoping the present lord mayor, Lisa Scaffidi, might make way for by running for the party at the next state election, but the ABC reports she “angrily rejected” suggestions she might do so.
• Tasmania’s Legislative Council last week voted against a motion supporting an increase in the chamber’s numbers from 15 to 19. This follows an agreement between the Labor, Liberal and Greens leaders last month that the Legislative Assembly should revert to the 35-member seven-seat region model which prevailed until 1998, when Labor and the Liberals combined to support a 25-member five-seat model in the expectation that it would neuter the Greens. The ongoing rise in the latter’s electoral support gave lie to that, and the state returned to minority government with the election of one Greens member in each region at the election held in March – with the added sting of the major parties being deprived of the range of parliamentary talent that they would have enjoyed in the old days. However, Premier David Bartlett told Tim Cox on ABC Radio that it would be up to the Council to decide if it wanted to follow suit in reverting to its pre-1998 numbers. The motion was opposed by the chamber’s three Labor members, who were no doubt mindful that the proposed increase in lower house numbers was a hard enough sell as it was – although the solitary Liberal, Vanessa Goodwin, joined with four independents in support.
• Also in Tasmania, state Treasurer Michael Aird has announced he will be quitting his upper house seat of Derwent, to which he was re-elected for a six-year term at the periodical election in May 2009. This means an election for the seat will be held concurrently with the annual periodical upper house elections on the first Saturday in May, which next year will cover the seats of Launceston (previously known as Paterson), Murchison and Rumney, respectively held by independent Don Wing, independent Ruth Forrest and Labor’s Lin Thorp. The ABC reports talk Labor preselection might be contested by David Llewellyn, who lost his seat in Lyons to party rival Rebecca White. More surprisingly, Damien Brown of The Mercury reports former Premier Paul Lennon might fancy a tilt at the seat. The Liberals have confirmed they will field a candidate for the seat, which has traditionally been safe for Labor.
federal? A four point turnaround? Lovely
From the Previous thread
[
Please, please, please let this Newspoll be the tide turner.
]
Have you been listening to The Smiths recently confessions? 😆
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQbzLrvwlE
some good news I will take that
Strange is it not, that the Australian has been carrying on about NBN for months and suddenly this poll in relation to it favors a cost- benefit analysis and it directly comes from the rotten Australian.
Hate to rain on everyone’s parade, but there IS a chance this could be an outlier …
The other 3 pollsters aren’t recording any movement to Labor.
Hate to say it, but: yeah nah, rogue poll.
Madcyril, I’d wondered if your gravatar was Johnny Marr. I take it that amounts to confirmation.
This poll changes nothing, put simply Julia Gillard should not be leading Labor to the next election.
Was that a cheer and champagne corks popping I heard coming from Wunulla Rd, Point Piper?
Shameaham will go with “voters support Abbott’s NBN stance”, surely
This is a big turnaround, a major “test” for Shanahan…
Vik
maybe the other polls were the outlier?
Muhahhahha
[Hate to rain on everyone’s parade, but there IS a chance this could be an outlier …]
could well be but newspoll was closest at the election and who cares anyway for polls in the silly season. still take the good result.
madcyril:
LOL!
William, indeed it is Johnny Marr
This is so bad it has to be mentioned.
Downer wrote an article today bemoaning populist bank-bashing. Brave Howie “seldom reverted to populism. Many of its big decisions were quite unpopular but they were, in the end, found to be effective.”
And not once does he mention Hockey’s name in the article.
And this gem which has been thoroughly discredited by everyone except Glen Beck.
[The roots of the global financial crisis were in politicians interfering in banking.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/alexander-downer-bashing-banks-is-not-fair/story-e6freacl-1225958058299
[This poll changes nothing, put simply Julia Gillard should not be leading Labor to the next election]
Why the fact Gillard now leads Abbott as the preferred prime minister by 54 to 31 per cent is not quite large enough for you. Hard to please marky mark.
Just been watching that fairly depressing JFK doco – only one short bit of the “official” Zapruder film.
So good to come here and see some good news. As I said – maybe we have reached “Peak Abbott”
[The roots of the global financial crisis were in politicians interfering in banking]
yes the politicians should stop interfering and bailing out those banks
If Turnbull was leader a Gillard Labor Government would lose in a landslide. I think it is likely to happen sometime
in the years to come.
Xenophon will have an excuse tomorrow to say the polls show he needs the plan before saying ‘yes’ and the MSM and Opposition will back him up.
Nice to see JG’s approval rating has gone up tho – no matter how often Julie Bishop says that the PM hates foreign affairs stuff the clips we saw on the weekend showed a confident PM. May be that is how the mob are seeing it now.
[16 the spectatorPosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 10:33 pm | PermalinkThis poll changes nothing, put simply Julia Gillard should not be leading Labor to the next election
Why the fact Gillard now leads Abbott as the preferred prime minister by 54 to 31 per cent is not quite large enough for you. Hard to please marky mark.
]
Note that our Green Bretheren are the ones calling it an “Outlier” etc.
I would hazard to guess that the soft Green vote and the soft liberal vote is coming back to Labor 🙂
sorry to interfere in your trolling marky marky, but Abbott gets the fundies and rusted on and ill-informed redneck bogans supporting him in a way Turnbull could not
Could it be that the Oops has lost its way?
Strange is it not that Newspoll does a poll on the NBN and the Australian is its distibutor.
marky marky 19
I think Peter Brent has done the stats on opp leaders – very few last longer than one term, and I think Menzies was the only Liberal leader to lose an election and still be there next time.
I think Abbott will go, probably next year (I desperately hope he stays at least till 2013 election!) – but I can’t now see Turnbull getting the job again. If Abbott had lost badly I think Turnbull would have been elected leader at the post-election party meeting, but I just feel they are not going to go back. So who? Not Hockey. Not Robb. who???
Gus,
I got me a new baby boy to go with his big sister. The girl’s been no trouble at all but he’s gonna give me some headaches – he’s just got that look in his eye.
Dio,
Agreed. Crime is down but fear is on the rise. Sydney’s no place to raise a kid (in my opinion) and I’ll be heading to the bush in a few years.
I’m off to bed to sleep very soundly indeed on the latest poll. I’m happy with the way the government is performing. I hope they continue to steadily build.
That 54 – 31 lead in the PPM stakes is a shocker for Abbott.
Start preparing his obit perhaps.
How’s the coalition rhetoric looking now Blue Green?
Who then will the bogan rednecks vote for then? I cannot see them going to Labor or the Greens?
You really think they will?
People said that John Howard would never get the job again? And look what happened?
henry
leave. britney. alone!!!!!!!!
Ooops I meant b_g
Ah, have just realised from Lateline what Gus was talking about re Doomagee.
I hope whoever lent Tone the $700K is getting nervous about his ability to repay it in the near future 😛
Opposition pass the bill to allow cheaper pharmaceuticals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/22/3073490.htm?section=justin
[If Turnbull was leader a Gillard Labor Government would lose in a landslide. I think it is likely to happen sometime
in the years to come.]
On the back of convincing his party to back an ETS no doubt. Perhaps he will enlist Godwin as his chief of staff.
Just finished watching the JFK doco on ABC. So sad, so sobering.
Watching those tv men puffing away on their ciggies on live tv reminded me of mad men.
It’s hard to put into context just what a huge deal the whole thing was.
I imagine it would be like Obama being cut down today.
Fess
ken should table a PMB to the effect of calling for a royal commission
any less and he is a coconut
THIS TRANSCENDS POLITICS
xmas is a scary time. Will abbott last past xmas?
about bl..dy time where the hell have you been. or something like that.
did you know the abc independant board bill got by by one vote
i wonder which ind. didnt vote for that
This is good news! Not because Labor leads 52/48 in the poll, big whoop, but there must be plenty in the Liberal Party who can see themselves as potentially the next PM.
The opportunity to strike might be nearer.
[35 Henry
Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink
Just finished watching the JFK doco on ABC. So sad, so sobering.
Watching those tv men puffing away on their ciggies on live tv reminded me of mad men.]
Henry what happened to Ruby
[ken should table a PMB to the effect of calling for a royal commission]
Yes, I agree totally.
The Liberals have shown they are willing to intervene federally in Qld state politics with Wild Rivers. Why not this? Wyatt’s the perfect MP to lead it.
[I got me a new baby boy to go with his big sister. The girl’s been no trouble at all but he’s gonna give me some headaches – he’s just got that look in his eye.]
Congrats drake – he’s teasing you and you’re falling for it. The little sods have a tendency to do that but I wish I was doing it all over again myself.
Britney Speers did a good job with the bloke from Woodside this arvo on Agenda – I actually think Speers is very good when he drops the ‘I’m a Liberal” cloak. He’s also going on paternity leave so good luck to him and his.
Orf to bed like everyone else with a mysay smile on my face, Shammers!
[Note that our Green Bretheren are the ones calling it an “Outlier” etc.]
Three polls (Essential, Morgan & Nielsen) show little or no movement to Labor & 1 shows a significant movement ?
Why is one poll believable & the other 3 not believable ? 🙂
fess
they lack the courage of their convictions
cos there aint no courage and sweet FA convictions
a rusted busted no man to be trusted rabble
[did you know the abc independant board bill got by by one vote]
my say: What does this refer to?
I think many people in the last election did not care less about Climate Change. You really think Queenslanders care about this?
The issues that counted were privatisation, jobs and housing affordability.
Labor is struggling with all three presently and lost big time taking the initiative on housing affordability when Wayne Swan initially supported Banks.
[This is good news! Not because Labor leads 52/48 in the poll, big whoop, but there must be plenty in the Liberal Party who can see themselves as potentially the next PM.
The opportunity to strike might be neare]
i dont think turnbull would be popular i would like abbott to just stay there
The Finnigans,
[xmas is a scary time. Will abbott last past xmas? ]
He’ll want to be careful out surfing. I heard there’s a few Chinese subs prowling about. 😉
confessions – before I go – great news re the pharma bill passing. A good save for the budget and for all of us.